Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Special EditionTime to do away with tradition?

The predictions made here each week do not represent the views of everyone on FIC and should not be used for gambling purposes.

Some try blind guesses by having their pets pick the games each week based on which treat they decide to choose. Others make themselves out to have bizarre psychic nicknames. Still more throw darts at a board and pick whoever it lands on. And, yes... there are a few actual experts, but I'm not one of them. Kick off every weekend with "The Mutt" as he tests his skills all season long against a few of our correspondents in the race for the FIC Cup.

Official FIC Cup Standings (Last Week in Parentheses)

Tim Noakes 90-79-7 (7-9)
Jeff Brown 85-84-7 (8-8)
The Mutt 79-90-7 (8-8)
Chris Wang 76-77-7 (8-8)* Missed Week One
Jay Schell 69-84-7 (0-0)
Zach McCann 61-81-6 (6-10) * Missed Weeks Nine and Ten

Time to do away with tradition?

The Detroit Lions have appeared in 62 Thanksgiving Day games since 1934. The Dallas Cowboys have appeared in 34 Thanksgiving Day games since 1966.

There was a time when Thanksgiving was about three things: Giving thanks to our forefathers for helping the United States become one of the best, if not the best, country to live in the entire world.... Eating Turkey with the family in a celebration of the day.... Watching two great NFL football games.

Maybe it's just that The Mutt is a bit crazy. Perhaps he belongs in some kind of mental institution for caring too much about the sports world. The Cowboys and Lions are each coming off of three consecutive down seasons. In fact, the last time that either of them was in the playoffs was 1999, when they both snuck in as 8-8 wildcard teams. Neither is headed for a winning season in 2002 either, but for some reason, the Lions and Cowboys are still the hosts of the Thanksgiving Day games. Is it time for a change?

By no means is The Mutt saying that it's time to do away with the tradition of having two games played each Thanksgiving. That would be blasphemy! It just might be time for the NFL to showcase a few teams that are capable of (and want to) making a splash throughout the whole league. Outside of the playoffs and the Super Bowl, the league doesn't have a more spectacular chance to showcase its teams than it does on Thanksgiving, and there's no reason to have two teams that might lose to College Football #1 Miami if they played when that much is at stake.

That said, let's get to the games.

New England (-6) at Detroit
These two teams met on Thanksgiving Day in 2000, with the Lions using their Turkey Day advantage to spank the Pats 34-9. A quote from Patriots cornerback Ty Law keeps running through The Mutt's mind about the Lions (and the Cowboys) advantage on Thanksgiving. "This is their Super Bowl". They could go 0-15 in the rest of the games, but winning that one game that they host every year on Thanksgiving is all that matters. The Lions have an advantage bigger than the home field every year when they play on Turkey Day; they're used to the short week.

Records go out the door. One of the worst statistical teams in the league sheds their weaknesses because they're ready to play as well as they play every Sunday, while their opponents are used to having a few more days to rest up and prepare for one of the worst teams in the league. Can this (or either of these) game be predicted using the normal, traditional method of breaking down who will win based on who is actually the better team or how they match up against each other?

Tom Brady has fallen off a bit since his amazing start in the first three games of the season, but he should now be able to feast on the third worst passing defense in the league. Troy Brown and David Patten shouldn't have too much trouble getting open, and Antowain Smith should be able to find plenty of holes in a mediocre Lions run defense that ranks 16th in the league. In short, the Patriots should find a way to put some points on the board in this one.

The Lions will take their fourth worst offense in the league (29th overall, 28th rushing, 26th passing, 23rd scoring) into Ford Field and face off against an exceptional top fifteen defense that is among the top five in passing defense. QB Joey Harrington hasn't done much in recent weeks, but the Lions will find some way to use their strength (James Stewart.... 4.7 yards/carry) to keep them in this game against a run defense that has allowed 100 yard rushers in over half of their games this season. If Coach/Rocket Scientist Marty Mohrninweg, who just four days ago elected to kick when starting overtime against a Bears team that would march down the field for the winning field goal, can use the half a brain that he's so thankful for, Stewart will get 20+ carries and the Lions just might pull this one off.

When all's said and done, though, the Patriots need this game, and Tom Brady will work a little Turkey Day magic of his own. Patriots 27, Lions 24

Washington (-1.5) at Dallas
Steve Spurrier has taken his licks as a first-year coach in the NFL so far this season. Many thought he would be an instant savior that would take a struggling bunch of overpriced veterans and immediately make a run at a Super Bowl, but the team that he was given did not fit his coaching style at all.

Always reliant on a Fun-N-Gun style at the University of Florida, Spurrier entered the 2002 season with the equivalent of three backup quarterbacks in Washington. Without a quality gunslinger to run the attack, this system is doomed in a league where he doesn't get to face the likes of Central Florida A&M once a year. The key to this game, as it is in all of the Redskins games, is for Spurrier to swallow his pride and go with his team's strength: the running game.

In Week One against the Cardinals, Spurrier made good use of his star player, Stephen Davis, by giving him 26 carries. Davis responded with 104 yards and a touchdown as the Redskins beat the Cards 31-23. Since then, Davis has seen the ball over 20 times just twice (once in a loss to Green Bay [24] and last week in a win over the Rams [31]) and has not turned in another 100-yard game. In order for the Redskins short-passing game to be effective, they must establish the run. If Davis gets 25 carries, the Cowboys will be hard-pressed to stop the 'Skins offense.

There is only one word that can sum up the Cowboys on the offensive side of the ball: pitiful. After matching their highest point production of the season last weekend against the Jaguars (21... also scored 21 against Tennessee in week two), the Cowgirls ended a four-game skid which had included losses to fellow cellar-dwellers such as the Lions, Seahawks, and Cardinals (side note: the Cowboys scored just 30 points over the course of the losing streak).

First-year starter/former St. Louis Cardinals minor league pitcher Chad Hutchinson made good use of his receiver(s), particularly speedster Joey Galloway, as he threw for over 300 yards for the first time in his career. If Hutchinson can build on the confidence of last week's game, and Joey Galloway can show that he's back for more than just one game, the Cowboys may have finally found a one-dimensional attack, rather than the absolute lack of an attack that they've shown all season long.

Expect a tough Washington secondary to give Galloway a lot more trouble this week. Bank on Washington's front four getting a lot more pressure on Hutchinson than the Jags put on him last weekend. The Cowboys may be lucky to get 150 total yards of offense in this one. Even though the Cowboys have beaten the Redskins the last nine times that they've played...... all good things must come to an end. The magic number for the Redskins is 20.Redskins 23, Cowboys 13

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