Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

The Big Easy

The predictions made here each week do not represent the views of everyone on FIC and should not be used for gambling purposes.

Some try blind guesses by having their pets pick the games each week based on which treat they decide to choose. Others make themselves out to have bizarre psychic nicknames. Still more throw darts at a board and pick whoever it lands on. And, yes... there are a few actual experts, but I'm not one of them. Kick off every weekend with "The Mutt" as he tests his skills all season long against a few of our correspondents in the race for the FIC Cup.

Official FIC Cup Standings (Last Week in Parentheses)

Tim Noakes 90-79-7 (7-9)
Jeff Brown 85-84-7 (8-8)
The Mutt 79-90-7 (8-8)
Chris Wang 76-77-7 (8-8)* Missed Week One
Jay Schell 69-84-7 (0-0)
Zach McCann 61-81-6 (6-10) * Missed Weeks Nine and Ten

The Big Easy

After defensively manhandling the Packers last weekend, the road doesn't get much easier from here on out for the best team in football. The Bucs now take to the road with a chance to avenge one of their two losses against the Saints before heading home to take on the Falcons in a game that could very well decide the NFC South's champion. With so much on the line, the Bucs cannot afford a letdown after last week's huge victory.

The Saints, on the other hand, suddenly find themselves mired in a slump that has seen them lose three of their last four, and currently find themselves just a game up on the New York Giants for the final wildcard spot. A victory here could give them an outside shot at the division title, should the Bucs and Falcons each stumble the rest of the way. This will be the Saints last game against a contending team, as they close out their season with also-rans Baltimore, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Carolina. A victory here would all but assure the Saints that they'll still be playing come January.

Game of the Week: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (Pick'em)
Tampa Bay Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Despite winning 21-7 last weekend against a tough Packers defense, the Bucs were unable to really get anything going in the game at all. Each of their touchdown drives were setup by turnovers and they only moved the ball 20 yards combined in those two scoring drives as they accounted for just 246 total yards.

Typically, the Bucs will provide a little bit of a punch through the air (18th) and nothing on the ground (29th), but rely more on opportunism created by their top-ranked defense. The path to the end zone for the Bucs must be a short one in order for them to strike paydirt, or else they'll have to rely solely (no pun intended) on the foot of Martin Gramatica to put any points on the board.

Brad Johnson has been a very efficient starter for them, taking chances only when necessary, and has a tremendous 90.9 passer rating (6th in the league), primarily due to his 16/5 touchdown to interception ratio. Keyshawn Johnson remains one of the best possession receivers in the game, and is a threat at all times. Michael Pittman is as much a threat in the passing game as he is rushing the ball, and the running back by committee approach has failed yet again in Tampa Bay, despite the gaudy record.

The one positive for the Bucs offense here? The Saints are about as bad defensively as the Bucs are offensively. A weak secondary has been torn up all year and the linemen have been poor against the run. The Saints rank 25th overall (20th passing, 24th rushing) defensively and gave up 20 to the Bucs the first time they played. The resistable force will meet the movable object, and one of them will have to budge. Advantage: Bucs

New Orleans Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Aaron Brooks and the Saints managed to find ways to give the Bucs fits the first time these two teams met, as they scored the most points that Tampa has given up all season long. Brooks will need to use both his arm and his legs to throw off an agressive Tampa defense and buy himself a little extra time. Deuce McAllister was also effective when they met in Tampa, rushing for 109 yards on 31 carries.

Jim Haslett will have to get his team to establish the run to set up one on one matchups down the field with play action. McAllister's injured ankle could present a major problem in the team's gameplan, but James Fenderson came on and played very well in his absence last weekend. He seems to be a back who plays in a similar way to McAllister, and is a threat catching passes out of the backfield as well. The Bucs looked vulnerable against Deuce's slashing style in Week One, and their own agression can get them into trouble against a back who relies on quick cuts.

That said, the Bucs have the best record in the league primarily, if not completely, because of their amazing defense. Despite losing Lovey Smith (Rams) and firing Tony Dungy (Colts) as defensive masterminds in the past two seasons, the Bucs haven't missed a beat.... in fact, they've gotten even better. The Bucs still boast the #1 defense overall (1 passing, 5 rushing) and are as opportunistic as any team in the league (25 interceptions [#1 by 6 over GB], 5 fumble recoveries) with 30 total turnovers forced, good for second in the league. After dismantling one of the better offenses in football last weekend, the Bucs defense looks just plain unbeatable. Advantage: Bucs

Special Teams
Both Martin Gramatica and John Carney have established strong kicking games for their teams this year, with a slight edge going to Carney for his accuracy, which is countered by better range for Gramatica. In the Superdome, neither kicker should be an overwhelming factor over the other. In a game where field position will likely be a factor (ex. Any game the Bucs are playing in), a slight edge would have to be given to the Bucs Tom Tupa, who has nailed opponents down inside the 20 nineteen times already this season. It is, however, hard to get the image of a flailing Tupa spinning around and tossing the game-winning interception the first time these two teams met. Michael Lewis, who has taken both a kickoff and a punt to the house already this season, gives New Orleans another slight edge with the return game. Advantage: Saints

Coaching/Intangibles
While it's clear that Jim Haslett has taken his team from pretenders to contenders over the past three seasons, he has failed to get his team ready to play at the end of the year over the past two years. Jon Gruden certainly hasn't proven his so-called offensive genius can transform the Bucs offense into a force, but he has proven that he can motivate his entire team, be it the Raiders the past couple of years, or the Bucs now. The home field should play a bit of a role, but what will really give the edge to the Saints here is that they need the game more. Advantage Saints

Crystal Ball
The Bucs appear to be on a collision course with the Super Bowl right now, and are dominating everyone that they play so badly on the defensive side of the ball that their inept offense can do just enough to win ball games. The Saints are sliding, much like they did in 2002. Don't look for the bleeding to stop here, but a soft schedule will end up getting the Saints into the playoffs as a wildcard. The Bucs train may be derailed next week, but it won't happen here. Bucs 19, Saints 13

Lock of the Week: Baltimore (-3) at Cincinnati
The Bungles continue to find a way to lose every weekend, and this weekend should be no exception. With or without Ray Lewis, the Ravens are getting the most out of every player on their team right now. By the time Sunday's over, the Birds should be back at .500 for the year thanks to a score by their defense and a couple of TDs out of Jamal Lewis, who dominated the Bengals the first time these two teams met this year. Ravens 24, Bungles 13

Upset Special: New York Jets (+6) at Oakland
Much has been made about how hot the Raiders are right now, but fewer seem to have noticed that the Jets are on a four-game winning streak of their own. The Jets strength defensively against the pass will neutralize Rich Gannon and Co. just enough so that Chad Pennington and the offense could just sneak this one out on Monday night. Jets 27, Raiders 24

And now, a few things to ponder while we wait for Mike Sherman to challenge Warren Sapp to a celebrity boxing match....

R.D.C.I. - Dayne Cheeseburger Consumption 174, Giants 173
Consecutive Seasons that the Battle of the Bay has been played: 26
Next Meeting between the two (barring playoff meetings): 2005
Approximate Number of Wins it will take to make the playoffs in the NFC: 11
Approximate Number of Wins it will take to make the playoffs in the AFC: 9
Reason that the NFL switched to the eight division format: ????????????? (Please feel free to give your input in the comment box)

Miami (-2) at Buffalo - Recent developments have Ray Lucas suddenly looking like Dan Marino in Little Havana, but Ricky Williams remains the key as the Dolphins look to take a step towards locking up the AFC East. Bledsoe needs to step up for the Bills this weekend, but it looks more and more like the Bills early-season magic has just plain disappeared. Dolphins 24, Bills 20

Chicago at Green Bay (-9.5) - Favre and the Pack get their third shot at clinching a division title, and shouldn't miss this week. The "miracle Bears" of last year showed up last week, but Marty Mohrninweg isn't on the opposite sideline this time. The Tundra should do wonders for Favre. Packers 27, Bears 13

Carolina at Cleveland (-7) - The Panthers continue to slide, much like last year. The positives? They can only lose thirteen in a row this time, and they're done with the Falcons. The Browns should have no trouble building on last week's upset in New Orleans as they try and put whatever pressure they can still muster on the Steelers in the AFC North. Browns 23, Panthers 9

Pittsburgh (-3) at Jacksonville - The Jags are the model of inconsistency that makes these predictions so difficult sometimes. One week, they'll look like the best team in the league against a first-place team, and then they'll come back and lose to the Cowgirls. The Bus is refueled for the stretch run, and XFL MVP Tommy Maddox is expected to return this week, but it may just ruin some team chemistry. The Steelers just might fall into the Jags familiar trap this weekend. Jaguars 23, Steelers 21

Arizona at Kansas City (-9.5) - Priest Holmes is just unstoppable. Arizona just can't stop anything. Look for Priest to drop off a bit from his 307 total yards last week at Seattle, but expect him to have a little more help this time around. Chiefs 34, Cardinals 20

Atlanta (-3.5) at Minnesota - Michael Vick has officially emerged as a favorite for the MVP award. Minnesota's defense struggles against predictable offenses, so the most dynamic player in the league should absolutely rip them apart. The Falcons D isn't facing the Panthers, so they may give up a few points, but the Vikes will be playing from behind all day. Falcons 30, Vikings 20

Tennessee at New York Giants (-3) - Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race in their respective conferences, and both lost games that are pretty much unforgivable last weekend. Whoever loses this can pack their bags and get their golf clubs ready. Fassel had found a way to jump start the Giants offense for a few weeks, but they looked like the same old sorry team last weekend. Steve McNair, Eddie George, and Co. should find a way to put 20 on the board, which the Giants are incapable of against anyone. Titans 23, Giants 13

Denver (-3) at San Diego - Coming off their worst game of the year, the Bolts find themselves in a must-win at home against one of the teams that they're tied with, the Broncos. Those same Broncos blew a golden opportunity in the snow against the dome-friendly Colts last week. While all four of the Broncos losses have come at night, the Bolts have been amazing at home, having just one lapse against a pumped-up Jets team earlier this year. Look for them to pull their third huge home upset of the year this weekend (49ers, Raiders) and get a surprising leg up in the AFC West. Chargers 24, Broncos 23

Houston at Indianapolis (-11) - The Texans three wins in their inaugural season have been fantastic, but The Mutt has a feeling that they're done. Indianapolis came through in a tough, playoff type of game last weekend in the snow against the Broncos, but will they play to the level of their competition like they have all year? Colts 24, Texans 14

St. Louis at Philadelphia (NL) - McNabb? Detmer? How about A.J. Feeley? The Eagles quarterback carousel will stop this weekend, as Feeley will stay healthy for the whole game. Jamie Martin may end up leading the Faulk-less Rams, as Warner's pinky is sore and Marc Bulger's finger is still too swelled up for him to start. Duce Staley and a quality short passing game should give Feeley enough confidence and room to rub some salt in the Lamb's wounds. Eagles 23, Rams 17

Seattle at San Francisco (-9) - Garrison Hearst finally gets the backfield to himself this week, and should have a big day against the NFL's worst rushing defense. Terrell Owens might want to keep a couple of more sharpies handy for this one. It was nice to see the Seahawks actually show up for a weekend against their old division rivals, but don't count on a repeat this week. 49ers 30, Seahawks 17

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