Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Bride of Chucky

The predictions made here each week do not represent the views of everyone on FIC and should not be used for gambling purposes.

Some try blind guesses by having their pets pick the games each week based on which treat they decide to choose. Others make themselves out to have bizarre psychic nicknames. Still more throw darts at a board and pick whoever it lands on. And, yes... there are a few actual experts, but I'm not one of them.

Bride of Chucky

The smoke has cleared. 266 grueling games have been played throughout the NFL season, and they all come down to this. Bill Callahan and the Raiders took a brief ride down the turnpike to San Diego to face his mentor, Jon Gruden, for all the marbles.

While the Silver and Black have tradition on their side, the Bucs have received constant bashing about how disappointing their franchise has been over their short tenure in the NFL. Do people forget that this is a club that has made the playoffs four straight years, and five of the last six?

The matchup is exactly what you want... number one against number one... the top offense in the league (Oakland) against the top defense in the league (Tampa). The storyline of whether Gruden can prove that the Bucs were wise to give up money and draft picks in order to get him to become their head coach is mind-boggling, and is quickly becoming a Tampa Bay tradition, as the Devil Rays compensated the Mariners with Randy Winn and cash to obtain Lou Piniella as their new manager. When it's all said and done, though, the coaches won't be the ones who decide this game, but the players.

Super Bowl XXXVII - Oakland vs. Tampa Bay

Bucs Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Despite the addition of "offensive genius" Jon Gruden as their head coach entering the 2002 season, the Bucs still won with what's gotten them to the playoffs four years in a row: Defense. Their offense has improved a bit, and Brad Johnson has proven to be a phenomenal addition to the club. He makes quick decisions and is extremely accurate. While he has virtually no mobility in the pocket and a suspect running game to support him, Johnson finds ways to move the ball downfield, and should be able to move the ball against a Raiders defense that was slightly above average this season.

As for that lack of support, the Bucs will need to establish some kind of running game in order to pull this one out. As good as their defense is, the Bucs will have to find ways to keep them off the field every once in a while. Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott will both be keys to victory if the Bucs pull this off. Johnson will try and use a lot of underneath routes to make up for the lack of an effective running game, so the Raiders should be preparing for a lot of swing passes and screens.

The Raiders weakness defensively is against the run, which should actually benefit them in this game. Although Alstott can be counted on to grind it into the line a few times in this game, the Bucs don't have a back as talented as either team that the Raiders faced in their first two playoff games, and will spend most of their time attacking the Raiders strength... defending the pass. Expect the Raiders to learn from what Philadelphia didn't do last week, rather than watch what the Bucs did successfully. For the Raiders to slow the Bucs offense down, they need to pressure Johnson, whose uniform looked spotless at the Vet last week.

Raiders Offense vs. Bucs Defense

This is the story of the game. The Raiders have used a fantastic three receiver set all season long, with future Hall-of-Famers Jerry Rice and Tim Brown and youngster Jerry Porter handling much of the workload. They'll attack from the opening kickoff in this game, putting the ball up somewhere around 50 times by the time the game is over. While Tampa Bay has two of the best shutdown corners in the league in Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly, the question of how they'll defend Porter is a different story. The Bucs may have to use a lot of zone coverage, which isn't really their game, to contain Porter.

League MVP Rich Gannon will find ways to beat you with his arm, his feet, and his decision making (sounds like something The Mutt was saying about McNabb, doesn't it). He'll spread the field well and make use of all of his tremendous receivers and is smart enough to know when it's time to tuck it away and run with it. Much like the Raiders with Johnson, the Bucs will have to come at the Raiders with a lot of blitz schemes to get pressure on Gannon.

Like Tampa, the Raiders don't like to put the ball on the ground too often. That said, running back Charlie Garner was second on the team in both receptions (91) and receiving yards (941). He almost garnered (pun intended) 1,000 on the ground as well, despite carrying the ball less than 200 times on the year. In other words, the Raiders use the screen and swing as their basic running plays, but Garner was extremely effective when carrying the ball out of the backfield as well (5.3/carry) and could give the Bucs linebackers nightmares with his quickness. When they're at their best on the ground, Oakland is shifting back and forth between Garner, Ty Wheatley, and goal-line specialist Zach Crockett.

Tampa's defense has been rock solid all season long, actually scoring more than 20% of the touchdowns that they have allowed, including the postseason. They were #1 overall, #1 against the pass, and #6 against the run on the year, and have no real weaknesses on defense. Derrick Brooks will be a key in this game in containing Garner. Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly should shut down Rice and Brown for the most part, but it's debatable whether or not Dwight Smith can stick with Porter. The last time that the Bucs played a team with three receivers of this caliber, they got smoked by the Steelers on Monday night in Week 13.... though they did only allow 17 points.

Special Teams

While both teams have ample (but exotic) place kickers and a solid punting game, the Bucs have little going for them in the return game. The Raiders, on the other hand, have taken two punts to the house this season, as well as a kickoff. They've also blocked a punt this year and put pressure on Craig Hentrich of the Titans last weekend for what would have accounted for another one if he'd tried to actually kick the ball. The Raiders have the more aggressive and better special teams squad, and it could play a key role in the outcome of this one.

Chucky Bowl Prediction

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Chucky will go up against his former employer and think that he knows everything about the offense that Bill Callahan tweeked this season to make it into what it has become. In the long run, though, the Silver and Black will show the world just how amazing their offense is, and just how ridiculous it was for the Bucs to give all of that up for a guy who isn't even on the playing field. Raiders 24, Bucs 20

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