Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Week 1: Conference Championships Again?

The predictions in this column should not be used for gambling purposes.

Conference Championships Again?

Here we are in Week One of the 2003 season, and it seems that little has changed since the end of last year. The losers from last season's Conference title games will be hosting the Super Bowl opponents from 2002 in a couple of matchups that could go a long way to determining homefield advantage in the playoffs at the end of this year. Without further adieu, let's get to our co-games of the week in Philadelphia and Tennessee.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia - Although Donovan McNabb and the Eagles would almost certainly prefer for this game to take place in December, the Eagles have to be happy to have the defending champs on their home turf rather than heading down the coast to Florida. Many are convinced that the Eagles defense won't be quite the same without Hugh Douglas, Shawn Barber, and Levon Kirkland, and they should get a pretty good test right off the bat. The Bucs are known for their defense, but they have one of the more underrated offenses in the league, and were able to move the ball very effectively last season against the Eagles in the NFC Championship, who had always owned the Bucs when they played.

The key to this game, however, will be Donovan McNabb. McNabb still didn't look like he was quite 100% in either the divisional round or the championship game last year, and he's an absolute X-factor, not only for the offense, but as the team's leader. Expect McNabb, 100% healthy, to lead the Eagles on a couple of extended drives against the Bucs vaunted defense, which should play a big role in winning the time of possession battle against the Bucs and keeping the re-vamped defense fresh. Eagles 20, Bucs 16

Oakland at Tennessee - It should be interesting to see just how much older the Raiders have gotten in the offseason, although they've definitely started to infuse some younger talent on the line. Jerry Rice should be able to avoid the dropoff that long-time standout Tim Brown had last season, and Rich Gannon looks to have at least another year or two left in his limbs. Even Charlie Garner could have one or two more seasons where he surpasses 1,800 total yards, although he needs to be watched... backs usually drop off quickly, and he's getting up there at 31.

The Titans are tough to get a read on early in the season. They're clearly the toughest team in the league, led by Steve McNair, who almost always seems to be banged up. It's partially for this reason that nobody wants to draw the Titans late in the season, as they all seem ready to play through more pain than anyone else. In this case, however, the Raiders shouldn't want to start the season off against such a bruising team. The older the Raiders get, the tougher it becomes to avoid those nagging injuries, and the Titans will certainly be hitting hard on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Oakland should just be looking to survive this game, but will stay in it and have a lead late before McNair drives down the field and beats them with his legs. Titans 27, Raiders 23

Lock of the Week: Miami over Houston - The Texans should continue along their path to respectability this season, but they're just not ready to compete with the Mammals. Ricky Williams should be able to get into the secondary a few times, and the Texans should have no chance to move the ball against one of the best defenses in the league. Until Houston gets a true feature back, they should continue to struggle, although Andre Johnson gives David Carr a serious receiving threat. Unfortunately for Dom Capers' squad, they may be facing the best secondary in the league. Throw in a paper thin offensive line, and it should be a long day as the Dolphins take this one in a walk. Dolphins 31, Texans 10

Upset Special: Baltimore over Pittsburgh - Over the offseason, the Steelers officially confirmed that they're going to go with Tommy Maddox by letting Kordell Stewart head to Chicago, so the pressure is on now. He has two phenomenal receivers in Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward, and has a couple of other great options in Antawn Randle-El and newly proclaimed starting tailback Amos Zeroue, but the Ravens still have most of their trademark defense in place. Ray Lewis will be as agressive as ever as he's out to prove he's 100%, and Chris McCallister should effectively take one of the Steelers' big two receivers out of the game. While the Ravens have virtually nobody to throw the ball downfield to on the offensive side of the ball, Jamal Lewis should be able to rack up a nice game on the ground. Todd Heap should catch rookie starter Kyle Boller's only score for the Ravens in what should be a tight, field position game. Ravens 16, Steelers 14

And now for some thoughts to ponder while Daniel Snyder tries to sign a few more former Jets.....

The season, the R.D.C.I. will be matched up with Ron Dayne's cheeseburger consumption against his total yards.

R.D.C.I. - Cheeseburger Consumption 0, Total Yards 0
QB Predictions (includes playoffs)
Games Chad Pennington will play this year: 3
Games Michael Vick will play this year: 6
Games Jeff Garcia will play this year: 9
Games Brett Favre will play this year: 18
Interceptions Kurt Warner will throw this year: 23
Touchdowns Kurt Warner will throw this year: 27
Snaps Peyton Manning will miss this year: 0

And now, we'll breeze through the rest as I have a bachelor party to get to...

New England at Buffalo - The Pats will be lucky to get out of this one without new Bills safety Lawyer Milloy suing them for breach of contract. Drew Bledsoe should take advantage of some new holes in the Patriots' secondary. Bills 27, Patriots 23

Denver at Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis may finally be starting to change the losing attitude for the Bungles, but they're just overmatched here. As long as Mike Shanahan lets Clinton Portis run around instead of asking Jake Plummer to pull his magic trick where he throws into triple coverage, the Broncos should win this one in a walk. Broncos 27, Bungles 13

Indianapolis at Cleveland - Get your track shoes on Browns fans. Kelly Holcomb was fantastic last season, and he should be able to lead this team to a decent offensive season, but the defense will take until at least midseason to gel. That doesn't bode well if you're facing Peyton, Edge, and Marvin. Colts 38, Browns 27

Arizona at Detroit - FOX will be lucky to get 100 people to watch this game. The Lions seem to be starting to put some pieces together in the passing game, and they still have a steadily improving defense. They'll miss Jimmy Stewart, though. Opening Day should still be a wonderful life for the Lions, though, as the Cardinals start their twentieth consecutive rebuilding season. Bill Bidwill will soon find that even Emmitt Smith can't draw much of a crowd in Tempe. Lions 23, Cardinals 13

Minnesota at Green Bay - The Packers will begin their defense of the NFC North title against their biggest contenders within their division. The Vikes may get back up to .500 this season, and could be a solid sleeper. They won't quite be able to pull this one off in Lambeau, though. Packers 24, Vikings 20

San Diego at Kansas City - Whoever has the ball last wins. With backs like LT and Priest running against a pair of swiss cheese defenses, there could be a combined 400 yards put up on the ground and 80 points in this one. Chiefs 41, Bolts 38

St. Louis at New York Giants - This game could carry the two biggest egos in the league. Mike Martz still sounds as cocky as ever here in St. Louis, and it could be his undoing for the third straight season. Jeremy Shockey takes his big ego out onto the field with him, and he may be in for a season of finding that he still has a lot more to prove to surpass Tony Gonzalez as fantasy's top Tight End. As long as Martz decides to give the ball to Faulk 15 times, the Rams should be able to pull this one off... I'm not expecting that, though. Warner will throw for three TD's in this one, but he'll also get picked off for the second time in the game for the go-ahead score. Giants 31, Rams 24

Jacksonville at Carolina - The Panthers should have a vastly improved ground game thanks to Stephen Davis this season, and John Fox certainly has this team headed in the right direction. While they'll have trouble going anywhere in one of the toughest divisions in the league, the Jags would have trouble moving the ball against the 2000 Rams. Panthers 17, Jaguars 13

Atlanta at Dallas - Life without Vick begins for the Falcons, but a lot of uninformed fans will find that Doug Johnson should do a pretty good job leading this offense. Johnson should prove to be a better passer than Vick, although the offense definitely loses the amazing scrambling dimension that Mike gives them. There shouldn't be a whole lot of scoring in this one, as Tuna will try and have Troy Hambrick pound the line over and over to eat up clock. The Falcons opportunistic defense should take advantage of the fact that the Cowboys don't have anyone who would even be a backup QB on a lot of teams. Falcons 20, Cowboys 9

Chicago at San Francisco - The Bears will be out to prove that last year was the fluke, and not 2001. While they're certainly better than they were last season, 2001 was the fluke, though. Despite the fact that Jeff Garcia seems to be hurting, the Niners should have little trouble getting Dennis Erickson a win in his debut. Niners 23, Bears 13

New Orleans at Seattle - Either of these teams could become a sleeper Super Bowl contender if things fall right. The Saints always bust out of the gates fast, but they'll run into a team that's capable of pulling out a win in any track meet. With the return of defensive star Chad Brown and the addition of Marcus Trufant at corner, the defense figures to be improved for the Seahawks. This game will show us all just how much they've improved. Seahawks 34, Saints 23

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