Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Power Shift?

The views expressed in Out on a Limb do not represent an aggregate selection by all of our correspondents, and should not be used for gambling purposes.

Power Shift?

Many publications tabbed the St. Louis Rams as Super Bowl favorites in the preseason, but it certainly hasn't seemed like they're headed for Houston so far. After Kurt Warner fumbled the ball six times and Marshall Faulk had just sixteen touches (nine rushes) in a Week One loss in New Jersey, the Rams returned home to luck out when third year slot receiver Cedrick Wilson selfishly tried to score a touchdown that wasn't there instead of hitting the turf and setting up Jeff Chandler for a game-winning field goal attempt. After taking the opening kickoff in overtime and marching down the field, the Rams may have gotten the spark that they so desperately appeared to be searching for in the first two weeks.

The Seahawks were expected to be improved, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Nobody expected to see this team dominate the way that they have in their first two weeks, though. Led by rookie safety Ken Hamlin, Seattle has gotten out of the box quickly with a +10 turnover ratio in the first two weeks. While the 'Hawks offense has had a little trouble getting it going early in games, it hasn't been a problem for Seattle, as the Cardinals and Saints combined to score just 10 points on them. While both the Saints and Cardinals put up a lot of points on their other respective opponents, most feel that this week will be the true test for Hamlin, Chad Brown, Anthony Simmons, and rookie cornerback Marcus Trufant. If they come out strong against what was once known as the "Greatest Show on Turf," it will be time to say that this Seattle defense is for real in an early season matchup that could have tremendous bearing on who will win the NFC West.

Game of the Week: St. Louis at Seattle

When St. Louis has the ball: What's the best thing about Marc Bulger being the starter for the Rams? Mike Martz curtails his arrogance a bit and hands the ball off to his best weapon a bit more. Marshall Faulk averaged 40% more touches last season with Warner out of the lineup, and early indications this season are that the trend will continue. After just sixteen touches in Week One with Warner at the helm, Martz gave Faulk eighteen carries and Bulger found him four times through the air in last week's win over the 49ers. Bulger still has two top flight receivers to get the ball to in Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and Dane Looker seems like he may emerge as a nice option in the slot. Martz will have to make good use of Faulk against one of the league's worst run defenses from a year ago. The top paid offensive line in football is going to have to start playing some football instead of holding hands and blocking nobody, as they did several times last weekend against San Francisco.

Ray Rhodes has stepped in and changed the attitude of Seattle's defense more than he's changed any schemes. The Seahawks' first two picks in the draft have made an impact already, as Trufant has solidified a weakness at corner and Hamlin is already being considered one of the best young safeties in the league, along with his counterpart this week, Adam Archuleta. They'll have to use all of their team speed just to keep up with the Rams skill players on offense, who are as fast as any team in the league. The key, however, will be how hard they jam the receivers and finish their hits after plays. Ever since the Patriots beat the Rams two years ago in the Super Bowl, teams have figured out that St. Louis has a tendency to be soft.

When Seattle has the ball: The Seahawks played last week without their top receiver, Koren Robinson, and still put up 38 points on a suspect Arizona defense. For the first time this season, Seattle's offense will need to play a good 60 minutes, as it will be important to force St. Louis' offense to become one dimensional. Shaun Alexander will be counted on to get at least twenty touches out of the backfield, and could have a strong game running between the tackles. Matt Hasselbeck will need to get the ball out to his receivers quick, as Lovie Smith loves to call a lot of blitzes, and the Rams have two of the best defensive ends in the league in Grant Wistrom and Leonard Little.

The Rams are still young and weak at the corner, and they should have trouble covering Robinson and Darrell Jackson in this one. Safeties Aeneas Williams and Adam Archuleta are going to have to cheat a bit to make some big hits, particularly on Robinson. As big a threat as Alexander is, Smith may have his defense put eight in the box quite a few times, and that will be a huge test for Travis Fisher and Jerametrius Butler. If they can't contain Seattle's receivers, the Rams could be in for a long day.

Special Teams: Mike Martz hasn't had confidence in Jeff Wilkins for about the past two seasons. Seattle has one of the league's best special teams coaches in Pete Rodriguez, but it would be hard to say that their kicking game is anything but suspect with rookie kicker Josh Brown not having been tested (3-3, but his long is only 37 yards). Neither team should be breaking any long returns in this one.

Coaching: Mike Holmgren finally has his team in place, and he seems to be getting through to them so far. With a Super Bowl in his pocket earlier in his career, Holmgren definitely knows what it takes to win in this league, and he has good clock management skills. The last week or two seem to have humbled Mike Martz quite a bit, and maybe he's getting ready to shed the ego. After the debacle in the Meadowlands, Martz actually went to his kicker on first down from the eleven yard line in overtime last week, and he officially named Marc Bulger as his starter earlier this week. Never mind the fact that he gave the ball to Faulk last week. Regardless, Martz is still going to play his way, which means that he'll never change anything and let his team beat itself.

The Verdict: Seattle's for real. I'm not totally sold on the defense based on how they handled the Saints and Cardinals, but they should actually show up a lot more than they did in the first two weeks offensively. The Rams are simply the most overhyped team in the league, and Martz's best chance at pulling out wins is when his opponent shoots himself in the foot. 'Hawks 34, Lambs 24

Lock of the Week: Kansas City at Houston - Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. While the Dolphins lost the season's first lock against the Texans, Houston simply doesn't have the offense to stay in this game, and the Chiefs just won't wait around for them. Priest, Gonzo, and the gang should put up close to 30 points despite the fact that they're playing a tough defense this week, and the Texans just don't appear to be capable of putting up more than twenty against an improved Kansas City defense. Chiefs 31, Texans 13

Upset Special: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - How many of you bought into the Bengals sticking with the defending AFC champs last weekend? From the sounds of it, not many.... every comment seems to start with, "The Raiders are starting to show their age." Marvin Lewis has started changing that attitude already, and this week the Bengals will shut down what has become a pretty one dimensional Steelers offense. Jon Kitna will have to be careful with the ball in this one against a ball-hawking Steelers defense, but there's no reason that the Bungles shouldn't be able to hang with Bill Cowher's overrated squad. Bungles 23, Steelers 17

And now, while Matt Bryant tries to figure out where the middle of the field is.....

Ron Dayne has just become too easy a target (and hasn't even played a snap), so we'll have a new member taking over the R.D.C.I. next week....
Number of Niners coaches and players screaming at Cedrick Wilson to hit the dirt last Sunday: 107
Chances of Kurt Warner regaining his starting job after this weekend: 10%
Yards put up by Jamal Lewis through Week Two (including receiving): 368
Yards put up by Ron Dayne last year (including receiving): 477

And now, we blow through the rest as I'm late for work....

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - With Michael Vick at the helm last year, the Falcons couldn't do anything against the Bucs defense. Doug Johnson won't change anything. Bucs 27, Falcons 10

Minnesota at Detroit - Both teams look vastly improved early on this season. The difference? The Lions can't stop anybody... the Vikings have been awesome defensively so far. Vikings 38, Lions 28

New Orleans at Tennessee - Nobody knows why the Titans didn't show up last week. The Saints only showed up for the second half, and they'll need to play 60 amazing minutes to win this one. The Titans are just too tough at home. Titans 23, Saints 17

Jacksonville at Indianapolis - The Fred Taylor watch is on. Everyone else on the Jags seems to be hurt, so it can't be too much longer. After a lackluster Week One performance, the Colts blew away their only competition in the division last week. Colts 27, Jags 17

New York Jets at New England - Roosevelt Colvin's done for the year. It won't matter this week. The Jets will continue their transition from first to worst. Patriots 31, Jets 13

Green Bay at Arizona - Does anyone believe the Cardinals will win a game all year? Packers 34, Cardinals 17

New York Giants at Washington - Great comebacks by each of these teams last week, although the Giants still found a way to give the game away after they'd come back. The 'Skins could go a long way to taking control of the division here, but Patrick Ramsey should be in for a long day. Giants 24, Redskins 20

Baltimore at San Diego - While he's kept it closer to the vest, Jamal Lewis may be out to break his own single game rushing record this week against a Bolts rushing defense which has given up an average of 164 yards on the ground in the first two games. Consider this: Portis had 129 yards on 12 carries and barely played after the first quarter against them last week! The Bolts will put some on the board, too, but the Ravens are just the more complete team here. Ravens 31, Chargers 26

San Francisco at Cleveland - After getting torched by Jamal Lewis and allowing a total of 343 on the ground last week, expect the Browns to have eight in the box all day to stop the best two back tandem in the league. Jeff Garcia should have a field day! Cedrick Wilson will fall this time (if necessary, but it won't be). Niners 37, Browns 20

Buffalo at Miami - The Mammals did a nice job rebounding against an undermanned Jets team that always finds a way to beat them last week. Unfortunately, they're playing a team that suddenly has Houston in their sights... in January. Maybe Travis Henry will throw in a handful of yards this week to go with his touchdowns. Bills 27, Dolphins 23

Oakland at Denver - The Jake Plummer commercial was funny.... the first time. Clinton Portis should be back at about 100%, but the Snake won't be. Whether that helps or harms the Broncos is the big question. The Raiders aren't as old as they look, and it should show this week. Raiders 24, Broncos 20

On the Year: 11-4
Lock of the Week: 0-1 (Not this again! Even without the spread)
Upset Special: 0-1

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