Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Priest Out to Face Old Demons

The views expressed in Out on a Limb do not represent the views of Fantasy Info Central as a whole, and they should certainly not be used for gambling purposes.

Priest Out to Face Old Demons

As we enter Week Four of the NFL season, it's becoming more and more evident that parity is here to stay. Last year's AFC Champs already have their backs against the wall, and the Arizona Cardinals actually won a game.... against a team that was supposed to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. After three weeks, the only division winner from last season who is currently in first place is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This has even started to affect some of the stars in the league.

Who would have believed me if I'd said before the season that Peyton Manning would be 17th in passer rating after the first three weeks? How about three-time league MVP Brett Favre and his amazing 67.6 passer rating, which would place him 24th in the league? Marshall Faulk is hurt (again) and has been ineffective even when Mike Martz remembers that he has one of the biggest stars in the game. And then... there's Priest! Holmes, who has arguably been the best back in football for each of the last two seasons, takes his show to Baltimore this week to face his old team, and the only other back who has put up numbers in the same league as him so far this season.

Game of the Week: Kansas City at Baltimore

When the Chiefs have the ball: The Chiefs will continue to use a balanced attack that gets the ball into the hands of their best player both on the ground and through the air. Holmes leads the Chiefs in both rushing and receiving on the year so far, and that shouldn't change until star Tight End Tony Gonzalez is at 100%. They'll need a big effort from Gonzalez in this one, as he hasn't really been much of a factor in any of the team's three previous blowout victories over the Chargers, Steelers, and Texans. On the positive side for Gonzo owners, he showed some signs of life last week in Houston with three catches for 52 yards, his best outing of the season. The wideouts have been secondary in the passing game so far this season, and should continue to be so the rest of the way. Marc Boerigter is always intriguing, but Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton just don't strike fear into anyone's hearts.

As amazing as the Chiefs offense has been the last two years, this game matches up pretty well for the Ravens. They certainly aren't the absolutely dominant defense that they were a few years ago, but they should be able to load up the box and set up to contain Holmes all day. Expect Ray Lewis to be Holmes' shadow all day unless Trent Green can find somebody else (i.e., Gonzalez) to get the ball to. If the Chiefs can't establish any type of downfield passing game, they could be in for a long day offensively.

When the Ravens have the ball: If people think that the Chiefs put too much faith in one player to carry them, they haven't watched the Jamal Lewis show much in the past few weeks. Offensively, this team has two weapons (three if you want to include a very strong offensive line): Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap. Expect Lewis to pound away at a questionable defensive line all day. While the Chiefs run defense hasn't looked that bad so far, it may have something to do with the fact that they've faced only 60 rushes in the first three weeks (fourth fewest rushes against in the league) because teams are playing catch up. Even if the Ravens fall behind early, don't expect Brian Billick to trust Kyle Boller to lead his team back through the air. Now... if he could just find a way to get the ball to Heap. Much like the Chiefs, the receivers are non-factors.

The Chiefs defense has looked fantastic so far, and have had the advantage of dealing with a lot of one dimensional attacks early in the season. Expect things to change a bit this week. While they'll still be facing a one dimensional offense, they're facing a completely different style of offense. They'll need to stack the line, but they'd better make sure to swarm around Lewis and gang tackle him. Travis Taylor and Frank Sanders are really just in Baltimore for show, and Lewis isn't a great receiver out of the backfield, so they can focus pretty much all of their energy on Heap with their coverage.

Special Teams: Dante Hall is one of the most exciting return men in football, and he may have to take one to the house in this one to get the Chiefs going and take the crowd out of the game. Morten Andersen is still amongst the best kickers in the game, no matter how old he may be. The Ravens special teams play during their Super Bowl run a few years ago was one of their keys to success, but they just haven't found anybody who can replace Jermaine Lewis. Matt Stover is adequate in the kicking game, but don't expect him to make anything over 50 yards. This game could come down to a field goal war.

The Verdict: Just a hunch. The Chiefs are going to have a lot of trouble getting anything going with the best (defensive) weapon in the game staring across at the best (offensive) weapon in the league all game. The most overlooked factor in this game is that (arguably) the two best Tight Ends in football are squaring off in this one, too. One of them will make a big play to spark his team, and my money's on Todd Heap being that guy. Ravens 17, Chiefs 13

Lock of the Week: Detroit at Denver

I'd like to start this week's Lock of the Week with an open apology to all Broncos fans, as this segment just has to have had some kind of curse placed on it by an old gypsy woman who dislikes the column.

For about 30 minutes on Monday night, the Broncos looked unstoppable against the Silver and Black. This one could get ugly real early, as their 2nd ranked offense plays host to the 25th ranked Lion defense. Rod Smith will avoid being ejected in this one, but Clinton Portis will probably be out of the game by halftime so that Quentin Griffin can run all over Detroit in the second half. Broncos 37, Lions 17

Upset Special: Jacksonville at Houston - If you would have told me in the preseason that the Jags would be favored over anyone this season, I would have taken the points in a heartbeat right then and there. Byron Leftwich will make his first of many starts a bit prematurely in this contest, and if there's one thing that the Texans do well, it's play defense. Expect an agressive Houston defense to get to Leftwich five times and pick him off twice. Texans 20, Jaguars 16

Philadelphia at Buffalo - If anyone expects the Eagles to lay another rotten egg after their bye week, they're crazy. Miami exposed Bledsoe and the Bills last week in the worst game of Drew's career. With Travis Henry banged up, Buffalo's in trouble in this one. Eagles 24, Bills 13

Cincinnati at Cleveland - That's right. You can now officially determine that the artist formerly known as "The Mutt" is crazy. For the second straight week, the crystal ball says that the Bungles will pull one out, and it just might work this time. Tim Couch will be wishing his first start of the year came on the road by the end of this one. Bungles 23, Browns 17

Arizona at St. Louis - As a St. Louis native, this needs to be stated at least once a week. Mike Martz needs to be fired! As a Seahawk fan, I didn't mind last week... but anyway. Arizona may have managed to stop a hobbled Packers squad at home last week, so they'll now be hoping that the Bears find some way to win two games so that they still end up with the #1 pick next spring. At least Anquan Boldin and the publicity stunt known as Emmitt Smith seem to be panning out for them. Lambs 37, Cardinals 31

San Francisco at Minnesota - Dennis Erickson is already wishing that his team played the Bears sixteen times. Even with Culpepper hurting, the Vikes are starting to look like they're for real. Vikings 27, Niners 23

Tennessee at Pittsburgh - This one could be a playoff preview. McNair and Co. actually showed up against the Saints last week, and the Titan corners are ready to show the vaunted receiving duo of Burress and Ward what toughness is all about. Titans 23, Steelers 17

New England at Washington - After last week's loss to the Giants, this one is huge for the Ball Coach to prove that his boys are for real. New England brings one of the most overhyped young quarterbacks in the league to face one of the league's better defenses, but the most underrated young quarterback in the league will steal the show. Redskins 30, Patriots 24

Atlanta at Carolina - The first place Panthers will confound Doug Johnson this week. Don't expect them to keep this up all season, but their defense could be good enough to keep them playing in January. Johnson and the Falcons had a lot of trouble with the Bucs last week, and they should struggle to move the ball again this week. Panthers 17, Falcons 6

San Diego at Oakland - Marc Trestman has added an extra layer of security around himself to keep his own quarterback from strangling him. If you read the column last week, I was wrong. The Raiders belong in a nursing home. They should still beat the Bolts at home, though. Raiders 23, Bolts 20

Dallas at New York Jets - If a tree falls..... oh, you know the rest. Cowgirls 12, J-E-T-S 9

Indianapolis at New Orleans - Despite the fact that Peyton Manning hasn't been blowing any fantasy owners away with his stats, the Colts are starting to look like a team that could make some serious noise this year. This game will show the reason that they never do, though, as they have this tendency not to show up in games they should win. Saints 27, Colts 24

Green Bay at Chicago - The Packers decided to throw away their first freebie and lose even more ground to the division leading Vikings. It's time for Slash to take some guitar lessons, because his current career definitely isn't working out. Packers 20, Bears 3

(Last Week in Parentheses)
On the Year: 21-9 (9-5)
Game(s) of the Week: 3-1 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 1-1 (1-0)
Upset Special: 0-2 (0-1)

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