Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

The Rematch

The views expressed in Out on a Limb do not represent a conglomerate selection by our correspondents, and they certainly shouldn't be used for gambling purposes.

The Rematch

Let's face it... the defending Super Bowl Champs are starting to look like chumps. After last week's home loss to New Orleans, the Tampa Bay Bucs are sitting at .500 midway through the season. More importantly, they stand at 1-2 in the division, and are two games behind the NFC South leading Panthers, who are a perfect 4-0 in divisional play. At this point in the season, that stat gives the Panthers what seems like a whopping three game lead when you consider the tiebreaker. That said, this week's matchup between the two could have tremendous playoff implications for both of them.

The Panthers blew a fantastic opportunity last Sunday in Houston. Because of New Orleans' victory over the Bucs, the Panthers had an opportunity to increase their lead to two and a half games over New Orleans, who they swept in the season series, and a three game lead over the Bucs. Carolina, however, blew a game that they should have won handly. The Panthers outgained Houston 367-267, but they just couldn't move the ball in the red zone, and they let the Texans hang around. When backup quarterback Tony Banks found Billy Miller with just over five minutes to play, Carolina fell behind for the first time in the game, and it stood up as Houston beat them 14-10.

The Bucs seem mired in an eerie pattern which would suggest that they'll win this week. Starting with week one, the Bucs have alternated from week to week, winning one week and losing the next. The teams squared off in a phenomenal battle in Week Two, with the Panthers winning 12-9 in overtime. Carolina blocked three kicks in the game, including what looked to be a game-winning PAT on the final play of regulation. Expect another defensive struggle when the two teams hook up on Sunday.

Game of the Week: Tampa Bay at Carolina

When the Bucs have the ball: Tampa has had one of the more underrated passing games in the league for the past two seasons. Their offense currently ranks sixth (!) in the NFL, which is predominantly because of the fifth best air attack in the league. Brad Johnson is usually very efficient and effective, and could be the key to this game. Johnson has thrown one interception in the Bucs four victories, but he's thrown seven, including at least one in each game, in Tampa's four losses. Michael Pittman is the clear feature back, but he has yet to show any consistency, turning in four games with less than fifty yards on the ground. On paper, this matchup does favor the Bucs, as Carolina has been below average against the pass so far this season. The Panthers have a stout run defense, though, and the Bucs will be hard pressed to move the ball in the red zone. Expect a lot of blitzes from Carolina's vaunted front four as they try and throw Johnson off his game.

When Carolina has the ball: The Panthers could certainly be taking a hit this week, with Stephen Davis listed as questionable (it seems like this is the fifth straight week that he has been). While Davis will most likely take a snap here or there, expect Deshaun Foster to get the lion's share of the carries for the Panthers on Sunday. This damages the second best ground attack in all of football quite a bit, as Davis is one of the top five backs in the league. Foster is solid, but he's better off the bench. Nonetheless, it's becoming more and more clear every week that Carolina doesn't have a legitimate chance if they have to depend on Jake Delhomme to win them football games through the air, so expect them to pound away at the Bucs on the ground. Stopping the running game has been troublesome for Tampa in its four losses, as they allowed an opposing back to rush for over 100 yards in three of them (Week Two - Stephen Davis, Week Seven - Garrison Hearst, Week Nine - Deuce McCallister), the only three 100-yard rushers they've allowed all year. If Foster (or Davis) hits the century mark, expect Carolina to pull this one out.

Special Teams: Martin Gramatica continues to be anything but Automatica. The normally sure-footed kicker is just 6/12 this season on field goals, and he had that extra point blocked when these teams last met. John Kasay is still a perfect 18/18 on the year, and the Panthers will gladly turn the ball over to him in a field goal battle. Again, it's time to re-iterate that Carolina blocked not one, not two, but three kicks the last time that these two teams met, so they definitely have a bit of an edge here. Steve Smith and Rod Smart also give Carolina a sizable advantage with the return game.

Coaching/Intangibles: John Fox continues to make this team believe in itself, and he's done a fantastic job so far in his tenure in Carolina. He'll try to control clock and continue to play to his team's strength. Jon Gruden won last year's Super Bowl with a little extra fire in the offense and Tony Dungy's old defensive system still in place. With the Bucs riding a rollercoaster this season, it's looking like he's allowed his team to have the dreaded Super Bowl hangover. He has to do a better job of motivating them, because they haven't faced a team who should have beaten them all year.

The Verdict: Something's got to give here, and I'm going to guess that it's the Panthers secondary. Brad Johnson and company will be out for blood because of last week's loss, and Carolina will be kicking themselves by season's end for blowing last week's game in Houston. Whether this game turns the division around is another question, but Tampa has a great opportunity to cut their deficit in half here. Bucs 20, Panthers 12

Lock of the Week: Indianapolis over Jacksonville - The Colts start a softer part of their schedule this week after last week's tough win in Miami. They can't afford to slip here, as Tennessee's still right behind them, and Tony Dungy won't let them. Jacksonville might.... might be able to give the Oklahoma Sooners a decent game. Colts 34, Jaguars 13

Upset Special: Baltimore over St. Louis - The Lambs are always tough in the dome, but you all know my feelings on Mike Martz. You simply can't afford to give chances away against a defense as talented as Baltimore, and Martz has a way of squandering his timeouts, going for it on fourth down when it makes no sense, and throwing the ball way too often. The Ravens' secondary will find ways to stop St. Louis, and Jamal Lewis will start another streak as he faces the league's third worst rushing defense. The Ravens are getting seven, but they should be able to pull this one off straight up. Ravens 23, Rams 21

And now, we ponder what the Oklahoma Sooners would do if they were playing in the NFL.....

Texas A&M's school record for worst defeat entering Saturday: 47
Texas A&M's school record for worst defeat after Saturday: 77
Sooners average margin of victory this year: 39.2
Even a playoff couldn't see someone knock them off right now....

Houston at Cincinnati - David Carr was listed as probable entering Saturday night, but it shouldn't matter much either way. Houston's 30th ranked passing defense should have way too much trouble in this one, and the Bungles should find a way to get back on track after last week's disappointing loss in Arizona. Bungles 31, Texans 17

Chicago at Detroit - If you would have told me that the Bears would win two straight at some point this year.... if you would have told me that these two teams would have squared off at some point in the season in which they'd both won the week before..... well... I would have had you shot. The Bears are riding their modest two game winning streak into Ford Field to face the Lions, who they beat two weeks ago. Whether he has any weapons or not, Joey Harrington will find a way to even the season series in what could be the last chance for either team to win a game this season. Lions 10, Bears 6

Miami at Tennessee - The Mammals get to square off with the two best teams in the AFC South back to back, which no team should envy. Just as the Titans rolled into their bye (with three wins by a combined 54 points), look for them to roll out of their bye with an equally impressive W this week at home. McNair for MVP! Titans 28, Dolphins 17

Cleveland at Kansas City - Honestly, this game scares me. Kansas City has clearly been the most dominant team in the league thus far, but Cleveland just has this way about showing up when you least expect them to. While my gut says that Cleveland's not due to show up for another three weeks, they probably will tomorrow. I'll still take the consistency of the Chiefs. Chiefs 34, Browns 13

Atlanta at New York Giants - While I still don't think that Michael Vick's absence should be having this much of an impact on Atlanta, they're just a bad football team in every department right now. The Giants looked impressive two weeks ago, and then held on and beat the Jets with their third second chance of the game. Expect them to have little trouble this week in a game where they need to make a statement. Giants 31, Falcons 6

Arizona at Pittsburgh - The Cardinals are flying high, and have won two straight since Emmitt Smith went down. The reason? Marcel Shipp and his 300 rushing yards combined in the last two weeks. He should struggle this week against the NFL's fourth best run defense, though. Steelers 24, Cardinals 20

Seattle at Washington - (This next statement does come from a long-time Florida Gators fan) Steve Spurrier has absolutely no clue how to coach an NFL team. Chad Brown and the Seahawks defense will eat Patrick Ramsey for lunch on Sunday as Ramsey tries to survive for another week. He should really sue Spurrier for putting him in this much of a position to fail. Seahawks 27, Deadskins 13

Minnesota at San Diego - The Vikings should certainly welcome an opportunity to head to sunny San Diego after two straight home losses. The Chargers can't seem to get much offense going, and they're going to need a lot of it with Randy Moss running around against one of the most undermanned secondaries in the league. Vikings 37, Bolts 20

Buffalo at Dallas - The Bills have scored 115 points in their four wins so far this season.... in their four losses? 28 points. They won't have an easy time of it against the league's top defense this weekend, but I'm taking them because they're coming off a bye and the Cowboys just played their biggest rivals. Bills 27, Cowboys 23

New York Jets at Oakland - How far does last year's conference champion have to fall to be home underdogs against a 2-6 team? Far enough so that we're still not picking them the rest of the way. J-E-T-S 30, Al Davis Retirement Penitentiary 13

Philadelphia at Green Bay - Favre, his broken thumb, and his gritty blocking came through against the Vikings last week. McNabb will give the Packers everything they want and then some this week, though, as the Eagles continue to rise from the ashes on their way to another NFC East title. For the second straight week, we should have a great Monday night game on our hands. Eagles 23, Packers 17

(Last week in parentheses)
On the Year: 76-38 (9-5)
Game(s) of the Week: 5-5 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 6-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 4-4 (1-0)

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