Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Paying some Bills

The views expressed each week in this column are in no way compiled by all of our correspondents. They should certainly not be used for gambling purposes.

Paying Some Bills

Patriots coach Bill Belichik spent years coaching under Bill Parcells for three different teams, but now its time for the student to show him what he's learned. The two coached together on a couple of Super Bowl winners with the New York Giants in the 1980's and early 1990's before Belichik took his first shot at a head coaching position in Cleveland. In Belichik's first shot as a head coach, though, he found that he still had a lot to learn.

When Parcells returned to coaching and took the job in New England years ago, Belichik returned to his role as an assistant, becoming the Pats defensive coordinator. He then followed the Big Tuna back down to the Meadowlands, where they tried their hand with the New York Jets for a couple of seasons. That's where things got a little hazy in their relationship.

Belichik had a clause in his contract which stated that he would become the next coach of the New York Jets after Parcells retired, which he did after the 1999 season. Parcells remained with the Jets as an advisor after he quit coaching, but Belichik had other ideas. One of his former employers, the Patriots, came calling, and offered little Bill more money than the Jets were willing to, and he once again bolted for greener pastures.

Now, nearly four years later, Parcells is back in the league and coaching the Dallas Cowboys to a phenomenal 7-2 turnaround after three consecutive 5-11 seasons. Belichik has his Patriots smoking right now, as they're off to a 7-2 start as well. Two years removed from their first Super Bowl victory (under Belichik), the Patriots appear to be headed back to the playoffs and have a three game lead in the AFC East. Before they can start celebrating too muich, though, Belichik will have to go through his mentor.

Game of the Week: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots

When the Cowboys have the ball: Whichever one of these offenses can actually find a way to move the ball should emerge victorious in this game. The Patriots haven't been a team that just jumps out at you with their defensive stats, but Belichik has always been fantastic at taking away his opponents' strength In this case, that means that New England's 3-4 will be focusing on the running game. Troy Hambrick has been pretty inconsistent all year long, but the Cowboys still use the running game as their primary attack. Quincy Carter has shared the load in the inconsistency department. His 9/9 touchdown to interception ratio is more evidence that he's a long way from being able to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and he hasn't put up a quarterback rating over 67 in his last three games. New England will try and force Dallas to go to the air, where they'll be as physical as possible with Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, and Antonio Bryant. While the trio may be the most skilled receiving trifecta in the league, Glenn and Galloway have definitely shown that they're a little soft at times throughout their careers.

When the Patriots have the ball: Despite not having a true feature back, New England has mounted a fairly successful ground game this season. Kevin Faulk and Antowain Smith give the Pats a duo that's similar (though not nearly as dominant as) to the old Anderson/Meggett combo that the Giants used to win a Super Bowl when both coaches were there. Smith can pound the ball pretty well, while Faulk adds in a lot of nice quickness. What makes the Patriots offense click, though? Tom Brady. Although Brady's only thrown for over 300 yards in one game this season, he continues to make wise decisions and keep his team in the game every week. The Pats don't win a lot of slugfests, like their last win against Denver a couple of weeks ago, but his team always believes that he'll lead them back if they're in trouble. The Cowboys will take their top-ranked defense into New England on Sunday night and try and shut them down in all facets of the game. Roy Williams could be key as a spy in the secondary.

Special Teams: Adam Vinatieri is having an off year... that's right, he's actually missed five kicks. There's still no better clutch kicker in the game, though. Billy Cundiff has turned what was a weakness last year into a strength for the Cowboys, and has been one of the more accurate kickers in the leauge so far this season. Neither team is likely to take one to the house on a return, but the Patriots are still known for their coverage and dedication to all aspects of the game. Basically, special teams should be a wash.

Coaching/Intangibles: This is the big matchup here. Both coaches know each other, and both have had hands in several Super Bowls. The defenses should dominate this one, as neither coach is big on running and gunning offensively. Look for Parcells to use his old New York Giants style and try to control the clock in this one, but I don't think it's going to matter much.

The Verdict: Even though both teams are 7-2, it's clear that one team has had a tougher road to get there. The Pats are the more talented team here, and their players have been tested a lot more than the Cowboys that they'll be looking across the field at. Expect a relatively young Cowboys team to put up a fight here, but this should begin their second half slide which will leave them lucky to make the playoffs. Patriots 27, Cowboys 13

Lock of the Week: Seattle over Detroit - Take the Lions two game winning streak and throw it out the window. They're not playing the Bears this week, and they're heading to one of the toughest places for a road team to play this year. The Seahawks fell to 1-3 on the road last week against the Redskins, but they're still 5-0 at home, and they should stay perfect against an undermanned Lions team. Seahawks 34, Detroit 13

Upset Special: Arizona over Cleveland - The Browns defense still looks really thin, and they show up every four weeks. Look for their locker room to continue to be torn apart after releasing their best receiver earlier in the week, and look for Marcel Shipp to run all over the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday. Cardinals 23, Browns 20

And now, we try to take a quick look at TCU's rise to the BCS...

Strength of Schedule: 87
Record: 10-0
Average Margin of Victory: 11.2 (including Saturday's 43-10 win over Cincinnati)
Top Ranked Opponent: Louisville (not in Top 25)
Projected Final Score if they played Oklahoma: 84-0... assuming Bob Stoops doesn't want to run up the score.

Houston at Buffalo - What ever happened to the Bills? They should be able to stomp on an undermanned Texans squad this week, which means they'll put up a lot of points this week. Points in four wins by Buffalo: 115... points in five losses: 34. Bills 30, Texans 13

St. Louis at Chicago - I'd love to say that the Bears can beat the Lambs, but it just can't happen. Even Mike Martz can't screw this one up. Da Bears will outpossess the Rams more than two to one, but may not even get on the scoreboard. Lambs 37, Bears 6

Kansas City at Cincinnati - As much as you've gotta love Chad Johnson's vote of confidence in his teammates, the Bengals are still a year away. The Chiefs really only have this game and a rematch with the Broncos standing in the way of an undefeated season at this point, and they'll pass the first test, though it should be close. Chiefs 34, Bungles 31

Jacksonville at Tennessee - The Jags may have pulled the upset of the year last weekend, but the Titans won't allow themselves to have the letdown that Indy did. Taylor will give it everything he has in an effort to stop Tennessee's streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher, but even if he does manage 100 yards, it won't matter. Titans 34, Jaguars 10

Baltimore at Miami - I don't think I've ever seen a worse offensive gameplan than the one that the Ravens used last week in St. Louis. If you have the top running back in the league and a one point fourth quarter lead, what are you doing putting the ball in the hands of an inept backup quarterback like Chris Redman so often? We'll see if they've learned from their mistakes this week, but the Dolphins' stout run defense will be ready for the test. If the Mammals lose again, they can mail in their season. Dolphins 23, Ravens 17

Atlanta at New Orleans - Don't look for the Saints to slap the Falcons in the face as badly as they did earlier this season, but look for them to win handly against the Vick-less Falcons. They've moved up to second in the NFC South by default, and they suddenly have playoff dreams in their heads again. Saints 27, Falcons 16

New York Giants at Philadelphia - The Giants are the most difficult team in the leauge to figure out, but their game should be pretty easy to figure out this week. The Eagles are on fire right now, and they see blood in the water with a great opportunity to catch the Cowboys this week. Eagles 27, Giants 17

Washington at Carolina - The Ball Coach finally got his team to show up last week, even if it was against a team that can't seem to show up on the road. The Panthers should be able to avoid a letdown after last week's escape at home against the Bucs. They're next focus should be on homefield, because it doesn't look like they're going to be caught in the NFC South. That front four should get plenty of shots at Patrick Ramsey as they take another step towards clinching. Panthers 26, Redskins 17

San Diego at Denver Doug better have a lot of Flutie Flakes before this one, because Denver needs it badly. The return of the Snake should give the Broncos a respectable passing game for the first time in about five weeks, and that won't bode well for one of the worst secondaries in the league. Broncos 31, Chargers 20

New York Jets at Indianapolis - With Tennessee killing everyone they play right now, the Colts can't afford another letdown like they had last week in Jacksonville. The Jets smoked Indy in the playoffs last year, but they're not the same team at all. The Chad will need a miracle to beat a hungry Peyton Manning this week. Colts 27, J-E-T-S 23

Minnesota at Oakland - The Raiders are finally making us happy here in our column... now that we're picking against them for the rest of the year. After finding out that their MVP Quarterback from last season is done for the year, don't expect them to get much help out of Rick Mirer. The Vikes couldn't stop Doug Flutie last week, but stopping what was once a great offense shouldn't be nearly as difficult a task. Vikings 34, Al Davis Retirement Penitentiary 6

Green Bay at Tampa Bay - Let's face it. While both teams were supposed to challenge for the NFC title, whoever loses this game is done. Unfortunately for the Packers, this game won't be in Wisconsin. Take the Bucs and the warm weather as their Cover 2 finds ways to stop Brett Favre and the Pack. Bucs 24, Packers 13

Pittsburgh at San Francisco - Even if it's close, this is about as insignificant a Monday night game as they could have at this point in the season. Tim Rattay will probably get the call on Monday night for the Niners, and could be the key to the game. The Steelers are awesome against the run, but their secondary is still a bit leaky. If Garcia was going to start, I'd take the Niners, but we'll go with the Steelers in what should be a tight game. Steelers 20, Niners 17

(Last Week in Parentheses)

On the Year: 83-45 (7-7)
Game(s) of the Week: 5-6 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 6-3 (0-1)
Upset Special: 4-5 (0-1)

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