Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Colts head for a brutal homestretch

The views expressed in this column each week are not compiled from all of FIC's correspondents. They certainly shouldn't be used for gambling purposes.

Colts head for brutal homestretch

With five games to play, Tony Dungy's Indianapolis Colts find themselves sitting pretty at 9-2, but things can change quickly in the NFL. The Colts may have the league's toughest schedule from here on out, as they will be facing the conference's other two 9-2 teams in the next two weeks before hosting Atlanta (who should be much better than they've shown so far this season with Mike Vick back in the lineup) and Denver. They close the regular season where they hope to be playing later in the postseason, in Houston. The two toughest games of the stretch come right off the bat, starting this week when they host the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are still dreaming of a first-round bye themselves, and are currently looking pretty safe atop the AFC East at 9-2. Should they manage to win on Sunday and beat Miami next weekend, they'll guarantee themselves a spot in the postseason dance with three weeks to spare. At this point, that's not their goal, though. You can listen to the cliques about how teams take things one game at a time all you want, but the Pats finish with three under .500 teams, and homefield advantage may be on the brains if they can pull today's game off in Indy.

Game of the Week: New England at Indianapolis

When the Colts have the ball: The running game has been clicking in the past two weeks more than it has in the past three seasons, and Edgerrin James figures to be a key to this ballgame. Even though Marvin Harrison should be close to 100% this week, the Colts may have a bit more trouble than usual moving the ball through the air. Peyton Manning is coming off of his toughest week since Week One against the Browns, and New England will try and capitalize on his struggles. As I said in the column when the Pats played Dallas, Bill Belichik likes to pick his opponent's strength and focus about 80% of his team's defensive effort on that. Expect a lot of dime packages this week against one of the better passing offenses in the league, and bank on James to have to carry the Colts if they expect to win.

When the Patriots have the ball: They still don't have a true feature back, but New England continues to mount enough of a rushing attack to keep opponents honest with the passing game. Kevin Faulk and Antowain Smith will both probably see a bit more action than usual, as the Colts run defense is ranked in the bottom third of the league. Tom Brady will continue to spread the ball as much as possible, although almost all of his wideouts are pretty banged up. Look for Deion Branch to continue to be a focal point when Brady throws downfield, while Faulk will see a lot of screens and dumps. Daniel Graham has been hot at tight end the past few weeks, and he'll make a nice target for Brady in the red zone.

Special Teams: The kicking game remains a strength for both teams, while neither has returned a kick of any kind for a touchdown so far this season. Adam Vinatieri certainly isn't having his best season, but there's no better kicker in the league in clutch situations. Vanderjagt continues to be so phenomenal that I even heard one crackpot put him in a list of candidates for MVP. It seems that when he's not drunk and ripping on his teammates at the Pro Bowl, he's Mr. Automatic. Vanderjagt is a perfect 26 for 26 on his field goals this season, and he's yet to miss a PAT.

Coaching/Intangibles - Dungy has been a great fit in Indianapolis, and he continues to mold the Colts into a team that can play defense as well as move the ball with astounding consistency. Belichik may still be the best defensive mind in the league for the Patriots, and he gets more out of less than any coach in football. With all of the support being thrown towards Marvin Lewis and Bill Parcells for Coach of the Year, they're certainly overlooking a couple of guys who are no slouches here.

The Verdict: This is really one of the toughest games to call that I've seen in a while. One thing will be dominant in this game, and it could be the offense OR the defense for both teams. Based solely on the coaching, you can probably expect both defenses to come out ready to do just enough to keep their opponents from scoring a whole lot. When it all comes down to it, New England is the team that's better tested... both this season and in big games in the past few years. Look for that to be the edge in a game that should be extremely tight. Patriots 20, Colts 16

Lock of the Week: Kansas City at San Diego - After the Thanksgiving games, I need a freebee. The Bolts defense would find a way to give up two touchdowns to eleven toddlers, but they'll be facing what could be the most dominant offense in football this week. Don't be shocked to see the Chiefs put up 60 this week, but take 40 to the bank. Chiefs 48, Chargers 27

Upset Special: Minnesota at St. Louis - The Vikings breathed a big sigh when the Packers came out and layed an egg against the Lions on Thursday. Now they have a chance to take command of the pathetic NFC North once again, and they should find plenty of ways to get the ball to Randy Moss against a small but speedy St. Louis secondary. Marc Bulger will play to the level of his competition for the Lambs, which means that he should show up for the first time in about a month, but Mike Martz will find a way to blow it for the former Greatest Show on Turf. Vikings 31, Lambs 27

And now, as Curt Schilling tries on his new digs in Boston....

Schilling's numbers at Fenway Park in his first stint with the Red Sox: Meaningless
Schilling's career numbers before turning 30: 51-51, 3.48 ERA, 800 K's in 988.2 innings
Schilling's career numbers after turning 30: 111-65, 3.23 ERA, 1742 K's in 1596.2 innings
Knowing that Steinbrenner's pulling his hair out: Priceless

Arizona at Chicago - And the winner gets... a worse spot in the draft. Marcel Shipp hasn't been practicing a whole lot this week, but he should still be able to put together a good start against the Bears. When two pathetic offensive football teams meet, always take the one with a solid defense. In the case that neither has a solid defense, take the one that actually has a few weapons. Anquan Boldin and Shipp at least belong in the league, which is more than anyone can say about any player on the Bears offense. Cardinals 23, Bears 13

Buffalo at New York Giants - In what could be a Super Bowl pre... oh wait... it's not September anymore. The Bills offense looks an awful lot like the New York Rangers... lots of talent, no results. Unlike the Rangers, they should find a way to beat a team from the Meadowlands. Whether Shockey's back or not, the Giants can now turn their attention towards getting a better draft pick for whoever their new coach will be next year. Bills 24, Giants 20

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - Sad as it may sound, the hapless Steelers (4-7) aren't out of it in the worst division in football yet. They will be after this week, though, when Jon Kitna and the Bengals shred their pretty average pass defense. Bengals 29, Steelers 20

Philadelphia at Carolina - The Panthers blew a golden opportunity to get themselves some separation from the pack for homefield last week against the Cowboys. The Eagles won't blow a golden opportunity to pull ahead of the Cowboys for sole possession of first in the NFC East. As they continue to get healthy on defense, the Eagles look more and more like the favorites in the NFC. Eagles 27, Panthers 24

San Francisco at Baltimore - What the offensive explosion???? Somehow, the worst passing offense in the league put up 44 points on Seattle at home last week, and they should be able to put up enough to beat the Niners at home again this week. Whether Jeff Garcia's back or not, San Francisco is just about at the point where it's time to consider this a rebuilding year. Ravens 23, Niners 17

Atlanta at Houston - Mike Vick will be back, although Doug Johnson will start again. Even one quarter from Vick should be enough for the Falcons to outlast an improving but inexperienced Texans squad. Falcons 27, Texans 24

New Orleans at Washington - Who's ready to buy Tim Hasselbeck as a legitimate NFL starter after last Sunday night's game against the Dolphins? Not me. The Saints will be ready for a gameplan centered around Hasselbeck and should pick him off three times as Deuce busts loose for 100 and a score again. Whodat! 30, Redskins 17

Denver at Oakland - The Raiders continue to be one of the biggest mysteries in the league, as they're actually about ten times better now that they don't have the league's MVP from last season. We're still picking against this bunch of geriatric felons the rest of the way, so take Portis, Plummer, and the Broncs... even if they did just find a way to lose at home to (gulp) the Bears. Broncos 27, Raiders 17

Cleveland at Seattle - The Seahawks still can't find a way to play defense on the road, but they're at home this week. While the Browns still show up when you least expect them to, Seattle should have no trouble moving to 7-0 in the friendly confines on Sunday. 'Hawks 37, Browns 20

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville - The Bucs received an early Christmas gift from the Packers and Cowboys on Thursday, but they'll still need a lot of help if they plan on having a chance to defend their title. That said, the Jags should do little to stop them from continuing on their mission. Bucs 23, Jags 10

Tennessee at New York Jets - Anyone who thinks that Steve McNair won't start because he's been listed as doubtful since Sunday is clinically insane. The Titans will continue to pride themselves on their toughness, and when it comes to toughness, McNair plays like a grizzled 18-year veteran offensive lineman with thirty broken bones. He'll play on Monday, and it will give his team just the lift they need to beat the Chad. Titans 27, J-E-T-S 24

(Last Week in Parentheses)

Turkey Day Surprises: 0-2 (Yuck!)
On the Year: 103-57 (11-5)
Game(s) of the Week: 6-7 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 8-3 (1-0)
Upset Special: 4-7 (0-1)

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