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Fantasy Football Predictions

Last Two to Lose See Things Change Fast

The views expressed in this column each week are not compiled from all of our correspondents. They certainly shouldn't be used for gambling purposes.

Last Two to Lose See Things Change Fast

If it seems like it was less than two months ago that a lot of people were thinking that the undefeated Vikings and Chiefs were on a collision course to meet in the Super Bowl, that's because it really happened that way. Two months later, the Chiefs still find themselves on track for a first round bye, but they're no longer the dominant team in the league. In fact, the New England Patriots would have homefield advantage in the AFC if the playoffs started today. The Chiefs still boast one of the top offenses in the league, but their defense has been exposed a few times in the past month, as the Bengals found plenty of holes in the secondary and Clinton Portis ran all over them for the Broncos two weeks ago.

The Vikings, on the other hand, have suffered a colossal collapse in the past two months. After losing to the league's model for mediocrity in Chicago last weekend, the Vikings have lost six of their last eight and now find themselves tied with the Green Bay Packers for the NFC North lead. What's the worst part about their slide? Four of the six losses were to teams that are below .500 (Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Bears). The penultimate unbeaten team in the league this season has quickly gone from 6-0 to 8-6, and they'll be battling for their playoff lives over the final two weeks, starting Saturday night when they host Kansas City.

Game of the Week: Kansas City at Minnesota

When Kansas City has the ball: Priest Holmes remains the focal point of this offense, but Trent Green has made better use of his other targets in recent weeks. Tony Gonzalez struggled a little at the beginning of the season with some nagging injuries, but he's clearly back to being the most dominant Tight End in the league with four touchdowns and 194 yards in the last three games. Eddie Kennison and Johnny Morton are an effective pair of receivers, while Dante Hall has taken his success returning kicks and made more of an impact offensively as a slot receiver. Holmes remains dangerous out of the backfield as both a back and a receiver, and the Chiefs may just have too many weapons for the Vikings to stop them.

When the Vikings have the ball: A healthy Michael Bennett was supposed to mean a lot to this offense, but he hasn't helped them to turn it back around. Bennett gives the Vikings a true homerun threat in the backfield, and he's been effective, but for whatever reason, the team's overall offensive performance has taken a nosedive. The easiest place to point the finger is at the quarterback, and you could certainly do that. Daunte Culpepper has thrown at least one interception in five of the Vikings' six losses, and he's thrown nine in the past eight games after not throwing an interception in his first three games. Randy Moss is the most dominant receiver in the league when he wants to be. Moss should have a few chances to go up and get the ball against Kansas City's relatively small secondary. They'll need to put up a lot more than the ten points that they put up in Chicago last week to even have a chance in this one.

Special Teams: Dante Hall hasn't made a lot of headlines lately as a return man, but he remains the most dangerous return man in the league. The Chiefs are superior in just about every aspect here, as they have a tremendous return game and possibly the best kicker in the history of the game in Morten Andersen, even if he is ancient. Aaron Elling has been solid in his rookie season, but he hasn't really been tested under pressure.

Coaching/Intangibles: Mike Tice looked like a genius early on this season, but he may be fighting for his job at this point. The fact that the Vikings don't seem to be getting up for the games that they should be winning (i.e. the four losses in the last eight weeks against sub-.500 opponents) can't be overlooked, and the fact that this team went from looking at homefield advantage to possibly missing the playoffs won't help him much either. Dick Vermiel is having another terrific third-year experience, and he's completely changed the identity of the Kansas City Chiefs over the past two years. There's no coach in the league that players would rather go to war for, and the Chiefs should continue to excel over the remainder of his tenure in Kansas City. While the Vikings are at home, they haven't been a team that plays much better at home than they do on the road this season. While they blew Seattle away in their last home game two weeks ago, the Seahawks have lost six straight on the road.

The Verdict: This game will be a mismatch. The Vikings simply don't have the defense to stop enough of the Chiefs' weapons. It has the smell of a shootout, but Kansas City will find ways to stop the Vikings on about half of their drives, while Minnesota will be lucky to hold the Chiefs under 40. Chiefs 38, Vikings 27

Lock of the Week: Philadelphia over San Francisco - The Niners are a woeful 0-7 on the road this season, and they now head into the most brutal road environment in the league. McNabb and Co. continue to move towards homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and they can't afford a letdown. Don't expect one this week. Eagles 31, Niners 13

Upset Special: Cincinnati at St. Louis - The Rams don't control their fate, but they need to win each of the last two games and hope for a Philadelphia loss to get what they want. With the division locked up, they seem to be a lock for a first round bye, but that may not be enough come January. The Bengals have everything in the world to play for. They changed their fortunes with a big win in Kansas City about a month ago, and they'll now head back to the other side of Missouri looking to control their own destiny heading into the final week of the season. If the Bengals can get there, they'll be as dangerous a team as there is in the playoffs. They'll use their tandem of Dillon and Johnson to run all over the Rams on Sunday. Bengals 31, Rams 27

And now, we'll breeze through the rest...

New England at New York Jets - Tom Brady should find plenty of ways to attack the Jets' Cover-2 defense underneath, and the Pats might even find a running game against the league's worst rushing defense. Pennington has really turned around the fortunes of the Jets, but New England has too much to play for to have a letdown here. Patriots 27, Jets 23

Miami at Buffalo - Despite the cold weather, this game should play more into the Dolphins' hands than it will for the Bills. The Dolphins have their backs against the wall, and Ricky Williams should get thirty carries like he did when these two teams first met. Bledsoe won't be able to get much going through the air tomorrow, as he had the worst game of his career when these two teams met earlier this season. Dolphins 20, Bills 13

Washington at Chicago - Despite their win over the Vikings last week, the Bears still may be one of the five worst teams in the league. The Redskins, however, don't belong in the NFL right now. Maybe Spurrier could coach this team to a win if they were playing in the SEC, but even that's debatable. Bears 23, Redskins 17

Baltimore at Cleveland - Could there be a nicer story to save the Browns' season than knocking the old Cleveland Browns out of the playoffs? Don't be shocked if you see that happen this week. The Ravens broke out for a few weeks with Anthony Wright under center, but he's starting to come back down to earth. Don't expect Jamal Lewis to have quite the day he had when these two teams first met. Browns 24, Ravens 20

New York Giants at Dallas - The Cowboys should continue to beat up on their marshmallow schedule. Jim Fassell will coach out the year, and he'll probably end up with a job somewhere in the next couple of seasons, but his team just quit on him this year. Cowboys 24, Giants 10

Detroit at Carolina - The Panthers don't have much to play for the rest of the way. They're already in the playoffs, and they'll likely lock up the number three seed with a win or a Packers/Vikings loss. Whether they have much to play for or not, Detroit isn't much of a challenge. Panthers 27, Lions 13

New Orleans at Jacksonville - The Saints should be able to keep whatever faint playoff hopes they have alive with a win this week. The Jags have been effective against the run, but Deuce will still find a way to bust loose, while Aaron Brooks should be able to find Joe Horn once or twice, minus the cell phone. Saints 30, Jaguars 16

Tennessee at Houston - McNair will be a game-time decision, but you should expect him to get the call on Sunday. With Billy Volek now out for the year, the league's toughest QB to strap on the pads and be his old dangerous self. Houston usually puts up a good fight, but they should be overmatched here. Titans 27, Texans 20

San Diego at Pittsburgh - The Chargers should struggle here, as they take their running game to the cold to face one of the top run defenses in the league. Plax and Hines Ward should have a field day against the Chargers' leaky secondary. Steelers 34, Chargers 20

Arizona at Seattle - It was 37-0 Seahawks the first time that these two teams met, in Seattle's only road win so far this season. As the 'Hawks look to finish the season 8-0 at home, don't look for Arizona to put up a much better fight in Seattle. Seahawks 34, Cardinals 10

Denver at Indianapolis - Clinton Portis remains questionable for Sunday night's game, and they'll need him playing at full strength to even have a chance. The Colts are still hoping for a Kansas City loss over the last two weeks to get a first round bye, and Manning and Harrison are still as dangerous a combination as there is in the league. Bank on them giving the Broncos' secondary a lot of trouble on Sunday. Colts 31, Broncos 23

Green Bay at Oakland - The Packers should wake up on Monday knowing that they completely control their own destiny in the NFC North, and they shouldn't waste much time taking advantage of that on Monday night in Oakland. Let the rebuilding process begin for the Raiders. Packers 27, Raiders 17

(Last Week in Parentheses)
On the Year: 134-74 (12-4)
Game(s) of the Week: 9-8 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 10-4 (0-1)
Upset Special: 5-9 (1-0)

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