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Fantasy Football Predictions

Wild Weekend Sees Three Rematches, A Pair of Former Divisional Foes

The views expressed each week in this column are not compiled from all of our correspondents, nor should they be used for gambling purposes.

Wild Weekend Sees Three Rematches, A Pair of Former Divisional Foes

In many sports, the early portion of a playoff game is a period where the two teams try and figure the other one out, rather than just going after it with their game plan right off the bat. Don’t expect to see much of that this weekend in the NFL Wildcard round, though, as every team should be pretty familiar with their opponents.

The Cowboys and Panthers met in late November when they were each atop their divisions at 8-2. Carolina never got its tremendous running game going in that one, as Stephen Davis was held to just 59 yards on 26 carries. The ‘Boys still boasted the top defense in the league at the end of the season, finishing tops against the pass and third against the run, so expect the Panthers to have trouble moving the ball again on Saturday night. That said, the Cowboys had virtually no running game against Carolina’s vaunted front four themselves, as Troy Hambrick and Avion Cason ran for 26 yards each to lead the team. Quincy Carter found a few holes in the secondary, and threw a ridiculous 44 times, including two touchdown passes, in Dallas’ 24-20 win.

It’s hard to forget what Denver did to Indianapolis just two short weeks ago on Sunday night. Quentin Griffin ran all over the Colts as he replaced the injured Clinton Portis, carrying the ball 28 times for 136 yards. The Snake was incredibly efficient in that game as well, completing 14 of his 17 passes (82.3%) for 238 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Co-MVP Peyton Manning and his tailback Edgerrin James never really got on track against a Denver defense that clearly had more to play for two weeks ago, but they have to have a lot of confidence heading into Indianapolis after their 31-17 victory there two weeks ago.

Seattle fans (myself included), along with fans of every other team that’s alive in the NFC, had to be pulling for Minnesota to hold off the putrid Cardinals last week and knock Green Bay out of the playoffs, but it wasn’t to be. The Seahawks got crushed in a trip to Lambeau this season 35-13, a game which saw former Seahawk Ahman Green run for 118 yards and two scores. The two teams know each other extremely well, as Holmgren coached the Packers for several years before moving onto Seattle, and Seahawks’ defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes was even the head coach of the Pack for a year. Mike Sherman, on the other hand, came up as an assistant under Holmgren, and spent just one year in Seattle as the offensive coordinator before heading back to Green Bay to take over the coaching duties.

The Baltimore-Tennessee matchup is the one game this week that wasn’t played earlier in the season, but it’s not like these two teams don’t have any recent history. Over the final three years of the old divisional system, the Ravens and Titans owned the AFC Central. Each made a Super Bowl out of the division in its final two seasons, and the Ravens won it, stepping over the then defending Conference Champion Titans in the divisional round of the playoffs along the way. Baltimore has won the last five meetings between the two, but you can usually expect a tight defensive struggle when they square off.

Without further adieu, though, let’s get to some picks. This time these games really mean something.

Tennessee at Baltimore

We all knew this was coming a few weeks ago. Tennessee finished the season 12-2 against teams that don’t play in Indiana, but the 12-4 Titans will be on the road in the wildcard round to face the 10-6 Ravens, winners of the AFC North. The divisional system will almost always create an injustice like this, as in today’s NFL, there always seem to be one or two divisions that are just way down each year. Each of Saturday’s hosts come from these divisions.

Despite having the worst record in the playoffs, the Ravens did end up with both the NFL’s Offensive (Jamal) and Defensive (Ray) Players of the Year because of their two Lewis’. They’ll continue to rely on Jamal Lewis to get the job done offensively on the ground, pounding away to eat clock with their ball-control offense. This game will match strength against strength, though, as he’ll be facing the top run defense in football (arguably the top run defense three years running). Tennessee will load up in the box to stop Lewis and force Anthony Wright to beat them through the air.

League Co-MVP Steve McNair is never completely healthy, but he should be pretty close to 100% for Saturday’s game, as he’s taken a few weeks off down the stretch to rest up. He’ll need to be on his game against an aggressive and dangerous Ravens defense, led by Ray Lewis. Eddie George will have to step up like he did in the second half of the season to complement McNair’s passing game and keep the Ravens guessing. Tennessee will need a lot of balance to keep Baltimore from being able to stack up against a one-dimensional offense.

When all’s said and done, though, I like the better team and the true best player in this game to pull it out. Tennessee has been the better of the two all season long, and I see little reason for that to change on Saturday. Baltimore just doesn’t have the talent on offense to move the ball against the Titans if they can shut down Jamal Lewis, and I think they will. Titans 27, Ravens 17

Dallas at Carolina

No matter what happens here, the winner will be the least feared team remaining in the playoffs. Both Carolina and Dallas beat up on relatively weak schedules to get here, and neither team has a lot of big-game experience. Each of the coaches in here play a big part in their team’s success, and the players on both sides are very well disciplined.

Dallas has quickly built the top defense in the league under Bill Parcells, but they’ll need to move the ball now that it’s playoff time. Quincy Carter has showed a lot of maturation this season, but does anyone really think that he’s ready to lead his team to the promised land when it counts? He’d better be, because Troy Hambrick has done little to inspire confidence in the running game, and he did next to nothing when these two teams first met this season. Carter won’t throw the ball 44 times today, but he’ll have to put it up about 35 times while avoiding turnovers.

Jake Delhomme has given the Panthers a lot more balance than anyone wants to admit to. He improves each week, although he’ll never be the focal point of the Carolina offense. Stephen Davis will again be asked to carry the load for the Panthers on Saturday night, and he didn’t exactly do a tremendous job of that against the Cowboys when these two teams first met. If Delhomme can get a couple of nice plays down the field tonight, though, expect Dallas to have to play more honestly on defense. Delhomme is the key.

I’ll take Delhomme and Davis to the bank tonight, as I just don’t think that Dallas will be able to get anything going offensively. Don’t expect a whole lot of scoring. Carolina 13, Dallas 10

Seattle at Green Bay

This game should be high-scoring, and I’m expecting a ten point spread for the winner. Who that winner could be hinges on a few factors. Either Favre and the Packers remain on their mission and beat the Seahawks handly or he has a letdown and Seattle catches the Packers napping. The winner of this game become very dangerous next week, whether they’re playing the Rams or Eagles.

Seattle runs a version of the West Coast offense that’s more than just similar to what the Packers like to run. It’s nearly identical. Former Packer backup Matt Hasselbeck has finally come into his own as an NFL starter this season for the Seahawks, and he has a nice trio of receivers to get the ball out to in Darrell Jackson, Koren Robinson, and Bobby Engram. Shaun Alexander has kept the ‘Hawks from regretting letting Ahman Green go too much, and he’ll finally get a chance to step it up on a really big stage. Alexander tends to save his best games for National TV, so don’t be surprised if he turns in a monster on Sunday.

Ahman Green continues to be the most balanced back the league has seen since Thurman Thomas in the late ‘80’s/early ‘90’s. Green finished 2003 with 2,250 (1,883 on the ground) total yards of offense and finished second on the team with 50 receptions. He’s always a threat out of the backfield either running the ball or receiving a screen. Brett Favre carries his warrior image into the playoffs, along with one of the more tremendous stories that the league has seen in quite some time in the past couple of weeks. Favre played the game of his life just a day after his father died two weeks ago, only to follow it with another tremendous effort in Green Bay’s playoff clinching 31-3 victory over the Broncos... and he did it all with a broken thumb! While he may not have quite the physical skills that he had earlier in his career, Favre is arguably the best field general in the league. The Packers are extremely dangerous late in the year at home, and the weather could be a factor.

Seattle is still a year away from being legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and it should show on Sunday. The game should be fantastic for them in the long-run, as they’ll gain some important playoff experience for their young nucleus. That said, the Packers are experienced, on a roll, and hungry to prove that their run isn’t over yet. Look for that to show this week as they find a lot of holes in a porous Seattle defense. Packers 34, Seahawks 24

Denver at Indianapolis

Don’t believe the hype. Indy’s run defense still isn’t proving anything, and they’ll be facing the best back in the league when they host Denver on Sunday afternoon. The fact that they weren’t able to stop Clinton Portis’ backup two weeks ago could lead to a long day for Indianapolis.

Denver will be happy to have their best player back in the backfield when they head to Indianapolis, and a healthy Portis could lead the Broncos to a surprise Super Bowl run. Jake Plummer needs to try to be as efficient as he was when the two teams met two weeks ago, as you can’t let the Colts work with a short field. Ashley Lelie, Rod Smith, and Shannon Sharpe should give him some nice targets to get the ball out to. Indy will try throwing a lot of run blitzes against the Broncos, but they’re going to have to wrap up better with their tackles, and Portis can be awfully slippery.

The Colts have one of the most balanced attacks in the league offensively, led by Co-MVP Peyton Manning’s arm. Marvin Harrison may be the best receiver in the league, and he can be fantastic either as a possession receiver or a deep threat. Look for the two to hook up close to ten times in Indy on Sunday afternoon, and they’ll need to be productive for the Colts to stand a chance. Edgerrin James will also have to have a big game to keep the ball away from an explosive Denver offense. He didn’t have a whole lot of chances when the two teams first met, but bet on Tony Dungy getting him into the game plan a bit more tomorrow.

If Indy couldn’t stop Griffin, I just can’t see them stopping Portis. Clinton will run all over them on Sunday, and another late comeback from Peyton Manning will fall short. Tony Dungy needs to get more of his personnel in there defensively, because his system alone isn’t working. Broncos 27, Colts 23

(Last Week in Parentheses)

On the Year: 155-84 (11-5)
Game(s) of the Week: 10-9 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 11-5 (1-0)
Upset Special: 5-11 (0-1)

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