Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

MVPs take their show on the road

The views expressed each week in this column are not compiled from all of our correspondents, nor should they be used for gambling purposes.

MVPs Take Their Show on the Road

When the AP named Peyton Manning and Steve McNair co-MVPs of the NFL a week and a half ago, it certainly wasn't unprecedented. It was the third time in league history that this has occurred (1963 saw Jim Brown and Y.A. Tittle share the award and the award was split between Barry Sanders and Brett Favre in 1997), and none of the four prior co-MVPs played each other that season in the playoffs. If Manning's Colts and McNair's Titans can pull out a couple of big playoff upsets on the road this weekend, though, the two will square off next week for the AFC Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs and Patriots played hard all year to earn their homefield advantage this week, and won't go down without a fight.

The NFC sees what some would have considered an unlikely final four a few weeks into the season. The top-seeded Eagles started 0-2, getting absolutely thrashed by the Bucaneers and Patriots (seriously... they lost by a combined score of 48-10 in those games!) before winning 12 of their final 14 games. The Rams stumbled out of the gate behind Kurt Warner's six fumbles in the opening week in New Jersey, only to see Marc Bulger re-emerge as one of the top QBs in the league when he replaced him. The Packers began the season at 3-4, and quickly found themselves three and a half games behind the division leading Vikings, but found themselves in the playoffs after Minnesota lost their game on the last play of the season in Arizona. Carolina? Sure... they started out hot last year, too, but they were under .500 in 2002.

A shot at the conference championship is only sixty minutes away for each of these teams, and we should have some pretty dramatic games on our hands this weekend. Grab a cold one and plant your butt on the sofa, but first, have a look at what to expect.

Tennessee at New England

The chronically banged up Titans will have the elements against them this week as well as their injuries. The forecast in Foxboro calls for a high of 25 degrees with a chance of snow, although it doesn't appear that they'll face the blizzard that the Raiders had to deal with a couple of years ago. New England is used to these types of conditions, and that should work in their favor, as well as the home crowd. Throw in the confidence that comes with playing a team that they beat 38-30 earlier this season, and it doesn't bode well for the Titans.

Steve McNair is still the X factor in this game. If he's truly healthy, no player on either side of the ball can dominate like he can. Although McNair has become one of the best actual passers in the league, he's still a double threat who can break a home run play on his feet at any time. The Pats aggressive defense will have this factoring in the back of their minds all game, and it just may keep them off balance enough for McNair to work some magic down the field. That said, in order for the Titans to win, they'll need Eddie George to pound away at the Patriots line like he could when he was younger. His ankle injury may be the key to whether or not Tennessee really has a chance here.

The Patriots used the team concept to motivate them during their Super Bowl run two years ago, and they've never shed that attitude. After finishing the season with the NFL's best record (14-2), New England managed to get just two players into the Pro Bowl, each of whom are on the defensive side of the ball. Tom Brady and Co. don't really seem to care much, as they'll put up enough points to win no matter who they're playing and how hostile the environment may be.... without any stars. Don't expect Coach of the Year Bill Belichik to attack the Titans the same way that he did in their earlier meeting, though. When the two teams first met, New England outrushed Tennessee (the league's top run defense) 161-70. Jeff Fisher won't let his boys get beat on the ground again, so Brady's going to have to run the show.

While most of the experts seem to be going with the red hot Patriots as the favorites to head to the Super Bowl in the AFC, I'm going to buck the trend. George has said that he's going to play, and I'll gamble that he'll play well. Steve McNair will be quietly efficient for most of the game before turning in a huge performance on a late game-winning drive. The Titans came up with a huge one on the road in Baltimore last week, and they'll eek out a close one in a showdown that should be much lower scoring than the teams' first meeting. Titans 23, Patriots 20

Carolina at St. Louis

The Rams and Panthers haven't met since 2001 when they were both in the NFC West, when the Rams held off the 1-15 Panthers 38-32. Neither team can expect to see an opponent that they recognize very much, though. The Panthers have quickly transformed themselves from a 1-15 doormat two years ago into the champion of the division that last year's Super Bowl champion calls home. At the same time, the Rams revamped defense has improved for the third straight year, although they do still have a soft spot or two.

Carolina got the balance they needed from Jake Delhomme last week, and he'll have to perform just as well this week for the Panthers to stay close against what can be one of the most high-powered offenses in the league if it's clicking. Stephen Davis looked strong against the league's top defense when they hosted Dallas last week, rushing for 104 yards on 26 carries. If he runs with the same fervor against this Rams team, he should go for close to 200 on the ground, and that could be the biggest factor in this game.

The Rams just keep coming at their opponents over and over again. Everyone knows that they're going to put the ball up over thirty times on Saturday if Mike Martz has his way, but they're going to need to make use of their best (and most often forgotten) player in Marshall Faulk. Martz has finally started to shed some of the arrogance that has kept his team from playing up to their full potential over the past couple of years, but we've yet to see in the playoffs if he's truly learned from the mistakes he made in the Super Bowl two years ago.

Marc Bulger will be back under center, and it should be interesting to see how much faith he has in his (and the league's highest paid) offensive line after they layed an egg against the last place Lions two weeks ago. Bulger suffered four sacks, including a crushing hit that bruised his forearm and forced him to leave the game. He was hurried countless times, one of which led to an interception that changed the whole face of the game, by a suspect Lions defense as well. If the Rams expect to move on to the title game, they can't afford lackluster play from the linemen against the best defensive front four in the game. They have to give him plenty of time in the pocket to let Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce (who's finally healthy) get open.

When all's said and done, I like the Panthers in this one. They match up really well offensively against a team that struggles to stop the run, and the Rams have had more than a handful of games where they've gotten lucky against teams that they should clearly destroy. These aren't the same Rams that went to the Super Bowl two years ago, and it will show on Saturday. Panthers 27, Rams 23

Green Bay at Philadelphia

The Packers received yet another reprieve last week when Matt Hasselbeck never even looked off his receiver in overtime. In one of the more brilliant playoff duels in recent memory (well... give me a break... I'm a 'Hawks fan, so there aren't a whole lot of memories there), it was Seattle that blinked first. 52 yards later, the game's first turnover by either team had the Packers moving on to Philadelphia this week. The Eagles and Packers met earlier this season on a Monday night in Lambeau, when Donovan McNabb threw his only touchdown pass of the game in the last minute to lead the Eagles to a 17-14 win.

Green Bay will have to continue to ride their string of recent magic to pull this one out. Ahman Green figures to have another big game against a poor Philly run defense. Green mustered 192 yards on 29 carries when the teams met earlier this year, and he'll definitely be called upon close to thirty times on Sunday. Three-time MVP Brett Favre has returned balance to an offense that had been very run heavy early in the season, and that's a big part of the reason for the Pack's success. Favre, still on a tear since the death of his father, threw for 319 and a touchdown last week against Seattle, and the cold weather factor will be in his favor again this weekend. It should be the potential for a game in St. Louis next week if the Packers win that should concern him. Javon Walker has established himself as Favre's best threat through the air lately, getting open on a lot of deep routes. Bubba Franks and Donald Driver are much more effective underneath and over the middle.

To paraphrase Rush Limbaugh, the most overrated QB in football lost yet another.... wait... his only bona fide... weapon in the last week of the season. McNabb will persevere, though. No quarterback in football makes better use out of less talent than McNabb, who continues to sprinkle 20 completions to 10 different receivers on a weekly basis. Oh yeah... he's a double threat out of the backfield, too. While Bryant Westbrook is done for the year, Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter give the Eagles a pair of decent backs to pound the ball. Todd Pinkston and James Thrash will try and get open downfield for McNabb, but neither will be much of a factor. McNabb will have to carry an even bigger load than usual the rest of the way.

It's been a magical run for the Packers, but it ends here. The hostile Philly crowd won't be that much of a factor against a veteran Packers team, but McNabb will be too much to overcome. The defense will find a way to contain Green and hold him around 100 yards on the ground, and they'll need him to put up numbers similar to what he put up in Green Bay earlier this year to have a chance. Defense will own the day, and Favre's record of 14 straight playoff games with at least one touchdown pass will come to an end. Eagles 17, Packers 13

Indianapolis at Kansas City

After avenging a late-season loss to the Broncos last week, Indianapolis heads out of the dome and into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in what many expect will be an offensive extravaganza. They last met in 2001, with the Colts edging out a 35-28 victory, and there's some recent playoff history as well. The top-seeded Chiefs fell to the Jim Harbaugh-led Colts in 1995 at Arrowhead, 10-7, in some of the sloppiest weather a playoff game has ever seen.

The Colts can't expect another five touchdown performance out of Peyton Manning this week, but if the Chiefs late-season slide holds up, they shouldn't need it. Edgerrin James could be in for the game of his life against a team that gave up 170 yards or more on the ground in four of their last seven games (including three games of 200 or more). The Colts should be able to ride this balance to give Manning plenty of time to find Marvin Harrison and Jerome Pathon strolling around in the secondary. James is the key, though. If he racks up 120 or more yards on the ground, it'll be extremely difficult for the Chiefs to keep up.

Priest Holmes will have to counter James at every step for the Chiefs to use their enormous homefield advantage. The Colts were a very mediocre 20th against the run themselves, and they can certainly be had. They did, however, sport the league's fifth best pass defense, so Trent Green could struggle. Tony Gonzalez will have to be clicking, as will the suddenly deadly duo of Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton. No matter how well the Colts play defensively, Holmes will be a big factor in Kansas City's offense. It's just going to come down to a matter of how much help he gets from his teammates. Kansas City definitely has the firepower to stay with anyone.

This should be the most fun game of the weekend, and regular readers of the column are all constantly made aware that Dick Vermeil has a trend where he goes to the Super Bowl in his third season with a team. That ends here, though. The Colts have the offense to match the Chiefs yard for yard, but more importantly, they have a defense that's capable of making a big stop. Green's last ditch effort to lead the Chiefs on a game-winning drive will fall short this time. Colts 37, Chiefs 35

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Regular Season: 155-84

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