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Fantasy Football Predictions

Punching Tickets to Houston

The views expressed each week in this column do not represent a compilation of all of the correspondents at FIC, nor should they be used for gambling purposes.

Punching Tickets to Houston

The NFL cuts its field to two on Sunday, as we'll learn who the combatants will be in Super Bowl XXXVIII. The warm-weather Colts and Panthers will have to take their show on the road to battle not only their opponents, but the weather as well. Will they be able to overcome these obstacles, or will the Pats and Eagles hold serve at home to meet for the Lombardi Trophy? It's time to find out who needs to book a flight to Houston!

Carolina at Philadelphia

When the Eagles and Panthers met in Week Thirteen down on Tobacco Road, Philadelphia came away with a 25-16 win, despite being outgained 336-283. John Kasay, who had been automatic to that point, missed three field goals and an extra point for the Panthers, who were in the midst of a three-game slide. Donovan McNabb led the way for the Eagles, going 18-26 for 182 yards to nine different receivers. The Panthers did, however, annihilate Philadelphia with their ground game.

Carolina needs to exploit the Eagles weak rushing defense again on Sunday if they're to have any hope of continuing their dream season. Just two years removed from being 1-15, the Panthers have revived football in Carolina by going back to basics. Their goal all season long has been to control the ball by pounding away at the defensive line when they have the ball and control the line of scrimmage with the most dominant front four in the league on defense. They've owned the time of possession 75-59 in the first two weeks of the playoffs. It's been an incredibly effective strategy all season, and there's no reason to think that they'll go away from that this week.

Stephen Davis' status for the game is still up in the air, though you should expect him to play and see plenty of action. Davis has battled through injuries all season long, and this is certainly the biggest game of his career. Deshaun Foster should still see plenty of carries for the Panthers himself, and he's coming off of his best game as a pro in St. Louis last week. Both Davis and Foster are terrific between the tackles, but a healthy Davis would give Carolina a huge edge in setting up play action.

Jake Delhomme is starting to become a household name all of a sudden, and he's made tremendous strides in his first season as a starter. Once thought to be a glaring weakness of the Panthers, the passing game has become more effective as each week goes by. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad really carry the receiving core on their backs, as none of the handful of third receivers that Carolina has have stepped up for more than a game or two. That said, the X-factor in this game could be former Rams third receiver Ricky Proehl, who is the only player the Panthers really have offensively with experience in a game like this. Proehl caught the only touchdown for the Rams in the NFC title game in 1999, and he threw in a touchdown in their Super Bowl loss to New England in 2001. He could be huge on third down if the Eagles overlook him.

Philadelphia seemed like they were struggling all game last week against the Packers without their sparkplug, but Donovan McNabb and Freddie Mitchell provided them with another spark late in the game. As often as he's criticized for being overrated by many fans and a few media personalities who really should've just stuck to politics, it could easily be argued that McNabb is as underrated a player as there is in the league. McNabb will be out to prove that he can win a big game in his third shot this week so that he has a shot at winning the big game two weeks from now in Houston.

Since that can of worms is opened now, how can McNabb, constantly showered with so much praise from the media, be underrated? He's never had any other superstars surrounding him offensively, and he spreads the ball to eight to ten different receivers per game.... week in, week out. He's become a master of going through his progression before leaving the pocket, which he can do as well as anyone (see his playoff record 107 rushing yards last week). McNabb doesn't have the arm of a Peyton Manning by any stretch of the imagination, but he finds ways to get the job done offensively. He'll never be the league's best passer, but he certainly deserves the credit of being considered one of the league's top five quarterbacks because of all of the intangibles he brings to the table.

One mistake that the Eagles may have made last week was not using Duce Staley often enough. While he isn't nearly as explosive as Brian Westbrook, Staley was incredibly effective when he did carry the ball last week (5 carries, 45 yards), and he has the ability to pound away and tire out a defensive line himself. Philly may try and make the running game a virtual non-factor again this week, though, as they'll be facing a powerful front four. McNabb will be asked to look for all of his receivers again, and you can bet on Mitchell and James Thrash to be his primary targets. He made great use of Westbrook (five receptions) when they met earlier this season, so look for Staley and Correll Buckhalter to see some action on some screen passes.

So what's going to happen, you ask? Carolina will win the time of possession battle, but McNabb will continue to lead his team on. Davis will play and be fairly effective, probably running for around 100 yards, but Jake Delhomme will struggle in his first NFC title game. With the city of Philadelphia pleading for the Eagles to come through in their third straight NFC title game, McNabb won't disappoint. He'll run for 50 and pass for 200 while engineering a late game-winning drive. David Akers should nail a mid-range field goal in the last minute to put the Panthers away and send the Eagles to Houston for a showdown with.... well... that's coming up next. Eagles 20, Panthers 17

Indianapolis at New England

The Pats and Colts also met in Week Thirteen in one of the most exciting games all season long. Brady and the Pats got off to a quick start, leading 35-14 at one point, but Peyton and Marvin tried to match their comeback against the Bucs. After Brady threw his first of two interceptions in the second half, the Colts turned the tide, eventually cutting the deficit to 38-34 in the closing minutes. It was not to be, though. New England stopped the Colts four times from the one-yard line in the final minute to hold on 38-34 in Indianapolis.

Everyone knows what to watch for in this game, or so they think. All week long, it's been billed as the most dominant offense in the league (see the Colts zero punts so far this postseason) against the most brilliant defensive mind in the game. People seem to be overlooking one thing, though. Let's look at two facts real quick.

1) The Chiefs put up 31 on the Colts last week, and didn't punt the ball at all themselves - While Indianapolis did come away with the game's only turnover (a fumble after a 40 yard run by Priest Holmes), their cover 2 scheme did absolutely nothing to stop Kansas City. Priest ran all over for them in that game, going for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns. Their pass defense was a little better, but Trent Green put up solid numbers against them, going 18/30 for 212 yards and a touchdown.

2) The Patriots put up 38 points on the Colts when they met earlier this year - What may be flawed about this argument is that Bethel Johnson had a 92 yard touchdown return and that the Pats were outscored 24-14 in the second half when they met earlier, but this can't be overlooked. The Patriots certainly aren't known as one of the top offenses in the league, but they put up 30 points or more five times this season, including their showing in the RCA Dome. With their defense and the conditions (for those of you who aren't aware, it should be in the mid-20's and snowing), if they score more than 24, they're a lock.

In short, what do those two facts point out? The Colts defense, supposedly better than advertised, hasn't done squat to prove it. Tony Dungy doesn't have the personnel that he needs in place to effectively run his Cover-2 scheme. Believe it or not, they'll force New England (unlike K.C.) to punt this week.... most likely more than once. They'll still give up their fair share of points, though.

Those of you who thought Peyton couldn't play in the big one, think again. Manning has taken his reputation as the NFL's best regular season passer and earned a shot at continuing the most prolific postseason that any signal caller has ever had. Through two playoff games, his passer rating is an absolutely ludicrous 156.9! For those keeping score at home, a perfect passer rating is 158.3. Manning is running the perfect no-huddle offense, giving himself and his teammates 20 seconds to look at what the defense is going to give him, and he's calling the perfect audible every time. Can he continue to do it this week against Belichik and the Pats?

If Manning should continue that success, he'll need Edgerrin James to turn in a huge game on the ground. Belichik still loves to take the offense's strength and just pound it into the ground. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokely (who arrived with the team despite his son's illness, so he should be playing) can plan on being jammed at the line of scrimmage on nearly every play and driven into the ground hard when they're tackled. This scheme worked incredibly against the pass-happy Rams offense, but Harrison isn't nearly as soft as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt were in 2001. In order to get that passing game going, James is going to have to get going early, both on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield. If he does, the Patriots could be in for a long day.

Tom Brady deserves about as much credit for doing it all himself as Donovan McNabb, despite the fact that the Patriots are the most team-oriented squad in the league. Kevin Faulk and Antowain Smith give the Patriots very little out of the backfield, but Brady still finds ways to beat teams with the passing game. He has a solid trio of receivers in Troy Brown, Deion Branch, and Bethel Johnson, and they're all finally healthy at the same time. Look for the Pats to spread the ball to stretch the defense.

That's where the surprise comes in. The Pats absent running game is going to take control of this game. Mike Cloud ran for two (albeit short) scores when these two teams met earlier in the year, and Antowain Smith is going to be asked to carry the load this week. The Colts have one of the most gaping run defenses in the league, and Belichik will find ways to take advantage of this. Look for New England to run from a lot of spread formations in this game, and bank on Smith turning in his best game of the year.

New England will be headed to Houston for their second Super Bowl appearance in three years on Sunday night. While the snow will have somewhat of an effect on Indy's offense, that won't be what wins this game for the Patriots. It may be one of the oldest cliches in the book, but defense wins championships... and the Colts just defense just isn't ready to do that for them. Mike Vanderjagt will pull a Gary Anderson and miss a 45-yarder late in the game... his first miss all season. Patriots 27, Colts 24

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2
Regular Season: 155-84

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