Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Super or Snoozer?

The views expressed each week in this column do not reflect a compilation of all of the correspondents at FIC, nor should they be used for gambling purposes.

Super or Snoozer?

It's almost time to throw away all of the media's over-hyping of the game over the past two weeks and watch the Pats and Panthers strap on the pads in Houston. Over the past two weeks, all anyone has wanted to say is that it's going to be a close-knit, low scoring game, and half of the media seems to want to go with the underdog. Let's see how the artist formerly known as The Mutt breaks this game down, though.

Super Bowl XXXVIII: Carolina vs. New England

When Carolina has the ball: Much has been made about how you could almost see the Panthers mouthing, "We're going to run the ball, and you can't stop us," during the coin toss of the NFC title game. That may have been true then, and that will most likely be their gameplan on Sunday. Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster are easily the two best backs in this game, and they will continue to try and control the ball with gritty power running between the tackles against New England. Here's the kicker, though. The Patriots have allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season (Clinton Portis), and the Panthers should have a lot more trouble establishing their offensive gameplan.

As we've said over and over in this column all season long, Belichik takes away his opponent's strength. New England will load up with eight in the box early on in this one, and Carolina will need to find other ways to beat them. The only way for Carolina to stay in this game will be for (possibly the most hyped player in the past two weeks) Jake Delhomme to turn in a Montana-esque performance. Getting by with the Dilfer-esque custodial passing game that the Panthers have used for most of the season just isn't going to get it done. Ty Law, Tyrone Poole, Rodney Harrison, and Eugene Wilson will be asked to shut down the pedestrian receiving corps of Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad. Carolina will need their only receiver who's really experienced in this type of game (Ricky Proehl) to step up and turn in his best performance of the season.

In short, Carolina needs to take the Pats by surprise and come out gunning. If Delhomme comes out on Carolina's first series throwing and finds a way to get the ball downfield against New England, they just might be able to get their running game going. As brilliant as John Fox has been, don't count on Carolina to do anything but what they've done all year at the start of this game.... run, run, run!!!!

When New England has the ball: The offensive line has to contain the best front-four in the league and give Brady enough time to make his usual quick reads. The Pats should have an opportunity to move the ball quickly at times against Carolina's no-name (but still pretty solid) secondary. Bethel Johnson and Deion Branch have a pure speed advantage over their opposite numbers (Reggie Howard and Terry Cousin), while Troy Brown should present problems for Ricky Manning underneath. Tom Brady is brilliant spreading the ball around, and the Pats will continue to try and spread the field all day long.

Antowain Smith won't have the day that he had (as I somehow predicted in this column?) in the AFC title game against the Colts, but he and Kevin Faulk will need to provide something on the ground to keep the Panthers honest. Look for Smith to get about 15 carries throughout the game, primarily just pounding the ball up the gut. They'll need to come out running and try and wear down the amazing combo of Kris Jenkins, Mike Rucker, Julius Peppers, and Brentson Buckner to take away some of their steam rushing the passer. Bank on Belichik getting the ground game going early and taking advantage of it later on.

Special Teams: Both teams are strong here. Former XFL standout Rod Smart is still pretty solid on kickoff returns for the Panthers, while Steve Smith has terrific breakaway speed returning punts. Troy Brown has been one of the elite return men for years now in New England, and Bethel Johnson is emerging as one of the most dangerous kickoff return men in the league in his rookie season. The only major difference that can be seen is in the kicking game. John Kasay had a better season, but he's tailed off a bit towards the end of the year, while the Pats boast the best pressure kicker in the game, Adam Vinatieri. While Vinatieri is coming off of his worst season in the league, he has yet to miss in the playoffs.

Coaching/Intangibles: Two former Giants defensive coordinators will be squaring off in this one. As fantastic as John Fox has been, the edge has to go to Bill Belichik, who won well-deserved coach of the year honors. Belichik has won three Super Bowls (two as an assistant, one as a head coach), and the experience factor is clearly his. Both are terrific defensive minds, so scoring may be at a premium on Sunday. If the Panthers have any edge in this game, it's that they have nothing to lose. Nobody expected them to be here in the first place, so all of the pressure on Sunday is on New England to perform.

The Verdict: While everyone's expecting this to be tight, the matchups just favor New England too much for Carolina to put up too much of a fight. Fox will come out running the ball, and New England will put this game away early. A late comeback attempt will make the score look a lot closer than the game really is, but New England should come through with their second Super Bowl in three years by about a ten point spread.

Patriots 23, Panthers 13

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