Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Beasts of the East (Part I)

It's been a while faithful readers, but we're here to try and improve upon our successful (at least compared to year one of the column!) 155-84 regular season record from a year ago. For those of you who have been following our work at Fantasy Info Central for the past two seasons, welcome back! For the rest of you who are still relatively new to the site, welcome to my favorite column that I write each week.

While FIC is committed primarily to helping fantasy owners in several key areas (lineup suggestions, trade advice, free agent pickups, etc.), this is where we take a little break from all of that fantasy hoopla and just have a little fun. Every Wednesday throughout this season, we'll be making our predictions on all of the Sunday action. While we do pick one game every week as our game of the week with some more in-depth analysis, most of what you'll see here is just a little color and fun.

For now, we're going to take a slightly more in-depth look than we usually do at how the division races are likely to shape up this season, starting this week with a look at both the AFC and NFC Eastern divisions. We'll do these in two part segments each week, looking at the AFC's division on Wednesday and the NFC's division on Friday, leading us to a final preview of what to expect in the postseason. When the games begin just over a month from now, we'll run just our one column a week on Wednesday's, previewing the week's action with a Game of the Week, Lock of the Week, Upset Special, and then a brief look at the rest.

So now that we've had our little introduction, it's time to get to it! We'll start out this week with a look at both the AFC East.

Beasts of the East

For much of the past decade, the AFC East has been considered the toughest division in football, and with good reason. The Miami Dolphins always seem to be in the mix because of their terrific defense and strong running game. The Bills were the AFC's team of the nineties, and have endured just four losing seasons in the past sixteen years. Those pesky Jets usually find a way to stay in the hunt, too. Last year, they suffered their first losing season since 1996. And, oh, by the way, the New England Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls. This year could be different, though. For once, the AFC East is shaping up as a two-horse race.

Projected Standings: AFC East
New England Patriots - 12-4
New York Jets - 10-6
Buffalo Bills - 7-9
Miami Dolphins - 4-12

For those who aren't sure what "Uncommon Opponents" means, the NFL schedule is very basic. All four teams within the division will play each of their division rivals twice (6), each team from one of the other divisions in the AFC once (4), each team from one NFC division once (4), and the two teams from the other two AFC divisions that finished in the same place as they did last season (2).

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC West

New England Patriots (12-4)
Uncommon Opponents: Colts, Chiefs

The Pats certainly don't get a break right out of the gate, as they'll start the year with two teams most experts favor to win their division in their first five games (Indianapolis, Week 1/Seattle, Week 5). The problem for the rest of the division? The Pats might not need a break. They should close out like freight trains, as they'll play just two teams that had winning records last season in their final six. In short, for the Pats to be caught, someone's going to have to bust out of the gate fast. As we'll mention later, there's a team that just might do that.

New England may not have used quite the style of team play last year that they used to win their first Super Bowl in 2001, but they're still about as cohesive a unit as there is in football. Tom Brady gels the troops around him every time he's under center, and there's no reason to think that the offense won't click again this season. In fact, they may be better. We'll take a look at the offense in a bit, but first let's look at what makes the Pats tick.

The Patriots continue to wow people and to win primarily because their defense is the hardest hitting unit in the league. They may not force quite the turnovers that the old Bucs' defenses did, and they certainly allow more yards than the Ravens' tremendous defense. However, they just seem to wear offenses down throughout games with a lot of clutching, grabbing, and the aforementioned hard hits. Led by All-Pro cornerback Ty Law, this unit should be even better than they were last season. Why? The Pats had a massive eighteen new faces on their roster last season because of salary cap cuts. With a year together under their belts, it's likely that they'll continue to play better as a unit.

Corey Dillon enters the fold on the offensive side of the ball, and adds a completely new dimension to this team. Ever since Curtis Martin bolted for New Jersey a few years back, the Pats haven't truly had a dominant running attack. Dillon, who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in six of his first seven seasons, should make them a scary offense to prepare for. Bill Belichik loves to spread his wideouts, which has made this a very pass-happy offense for the past few seasons. Obviously (see two Super Bowl titles) that style has been pretty effective, and this was without a back who could truly carry the load for the Pats. To further aid QB Tom Brady, his second and third receivers (Deion Branch and Bethel Johnson respectively) are both a year older and more experienced, while Troy Brown should be his old self. If they could only get TE Daniel Graham to forget his usual case of Butterfingers that he keeps on the sideline, this team could be unstoppable.

Adam Vinatieri leads a special teams unit that's second to none. He's arguably the greatest clutch kicker of all-time, and his right foot provided the win in each of New England's Super Bowl victories. Troy Brown will continue to do more than catch passes, as he's one of the top punt returners in the league.

The Pats enter this year as one of the preseason favorites to get back to the Super Bowl, and are clearly heavy favorites to come out of the AFC East. Don't be on Bill Belichik letting them underachieve, and expect them to be a factor yet again with homefield advantage in the playoffs.

New York Jets (10-6)
Uncommon Opponents: Texans, Chargers

It's nice to play a last place schedule, isn't it! You're hearing it here first. The New York Jets will be 5-0 heading into Foxboro, Massachussets on October 24 to take on the New England Patriots. Why? If they get past the Bengals in Carson Palmer's first career NFL start in Week One, they'll face four teams that should combine for roughly twenty wins in the next four weeks (Chargers, Dolphins, Bills, 49ers). How's that for an early season confidence boost? Jets fans shouldn't get too pumped up over what figures to be a hot start, though, as they may have the toughest closing schedule in the league (Seattle, New England, at St. Louis). They'll need to start out hot and maybe win one of those last three to secure a wildcard spot, which they should be able to pull off with the advantages that a last place schedule provide.

Despite last year's 6-10 finish, the Jets weren't an awful team... they were just without their franchise player for the first six weeks. Chad Pennington struggled a bit last season as he returned from a fractured left wrist he suffered during the preseason. Assuming his holdout doesn't last long, Pennington should have the stuff to lead this team to the playoffs, much like he did in 2002. The team struggled mightily without him, starting off 0-4 before their bye week, but played fairly well down the stretch after Pennington returned. The Jets finished the season 4-6 with Pennington in the lineup, but they really won all but one game they were supposed to win. If he's healthy, this offense should return to what it was two years ago.

Curtis Martin continues to age, but he showed last season that he's far from being done. Martin rushed for 1,305 yards last season, though he only found the end zone twice. With a quality aerial attack surrounding him all season long, Martin should once again be a productive back, and should see his scoring numbers improve. LaMont Jordan enters yet another season as the "back of the future", but time is running out on whether it will ever be the present for him. Wideout Santana Moss gives Pennington a terrific target who continues to improve, while Justin McCareins comes over from Tennessee and gives Pennington an established deep threat across from Moss. Anthony Becht is a huge red zone target at Tight End, but isn't used much in the passing game aside from that.

The team brought in three new starters to help Herman Edwards' Cover-2 scheme in OLB Eric Barton, S Reggie Tongue, and CB David Barrett, all of whom should be starting immediately. Tongue may be the key here, as he's created eleven turnovers in the past three years, while the Jets were tied for 29th in the league with just 20 takeaways. Barton is a fine coverage linebacker, though Barrett never really did anything to blow me away in Arizona. He makes a lot of tackles, which isn't really a corner's job. The Jets defense wasn't really their problem last season, finishing eighth in scoring defense. This division does kind of mask that, though, as they finished dead last in the AFC East in scoring defense.

Assuming the pieces all fit together, there should be some joy in the Meadowlands this winter. It won't be because they're a great team, but the Jets should be playoff-bound.

Buffalo Bills (7-9)
Uncommon Opponents: Raiders, Jaguars

After a tremendous offensive explosion in the first half of 2002, many were expecting a big year from the Bills' offense again last year, but it just never happened. QB Drew Bledsoe had his worst full season last year, throwing for just 2,860 yards and struggling to more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes (11). In what had been a very pass-happy offense just a year earlier, Bledsoe limped along to his worst year since his rookie season, way back in 1993. With Josh Reed and Eric Moulds ready to rebound around him out wide, it can be expected that Bledsoe should improve upon his 2003 campaign. Buffalo will need him to if they're to have any chance of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

This should be the year when Willis McGahee challenges starting tailback Travis Henry for some playing time. McGahee, who didn't take a snap last season after sufferring a knee injury in his final college game in 2002, was still picked by the Bills in the first round a year ago. This pair should set the Bills up to have a ton of depth behind Bledsoe and allow the Bills an opportunity to keep fresh legs at one of the most important offensive positions on the field at all times. Don't be surprised to see the two combine for 2,000+ rushing yards this season as the Bills establish a little more balance in the offense.

The defense was fantastic last season, and should shoulder little of the blame for a disappointing 6-10 season. Led by Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher, the linebacking core is as solid as any other team in the league, and they've got a pair of fine shutdown corners in Troy Vincent and Nate Clements. Still, the overall leader of the defensive team was a last minute pickup prior to last season.... Lawyer Milloy was third on the team with 103 tackles at safety as he struck fear in the hearts of any receiver who challenged the Bills' secondary. All of these things combined to lead the Bills to the second best total defense in the league and the fifth best scoring defense. They'll need the D to repeat last year's performance and a return of the 2002 offense if they hope to go anywhere.

Buffalo starts out light with the Jaguars and Raiders before their bye in week three, but the most important part of their schedule will come right after the bye. They bust out of the bye by playing all three divisional foes in a row before what figures to be a tough trip to Baltimore in Week 8. This stretch should make or break their season, and the smart money says that it will be the latter. They should be a slightly better team than they were last season, but there's an awful lot of pressure on Bledsoe and the Bills to finally produce.

Miami Dolphins (4-12)
Uncommon Opponents: Titans, Broncos

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins looked like the team most likely to challenge the Super Bowl champs within their division, but it's amazing what the loss of one player can do for a team. Ricky Williams announced his retirement at the ripe old age of 27 just days before training camp began, and it's difficult to picture Miami recovering. Why? Williams wasn't just the focal point of their offense for the last two seasons... he was their offense, accounting for 28 touches a game. An offense that's completely geared towards the running game will struggle quite a bit with untested Travis Minor as compared to Williams' bulldog "give me the ball" style.

Princeton grad Jay Fiedler once again enters camp as the starting Quarterback, but newcomer A.J. Feeley should challenge him and take the job at some point this season. Neither should inspire great confidence, as Fiedler has thrown for more than 3,000 yards just once in four years as the starter and Feeley didn't take a snap last season in Philadelphia. What they do both have to look forward to is a quality number two receiver that the Mammals acquired in the offseason. David Boston will line up opposite returning #1 wideout Chris Chambers, giving the Dolphins a quality pair of big receivers who can stretch a defense. Boston, arguably one of the best deep threats in the league as recently as two years ago in Arizona, will be a key to this offense. Unfortunately, there's still nobody to get the ball to him. Randy McMichael gives Fiedler/Feeley another big target in the passing game at Tight End, and has excelled in his first two seasons with an average of 44 receptions and 542 yards so far.

If the Dolphins surprise and challenge for the playoffs again, the defense will have everything to do with it. They managed to bring back rushing DE Jason Taylor, MLB Zach Thomas, and CB Sam Madison with the intention of taking one more crack with what they had. Miami is incredibly strong all-around on defense, boasting the fifth best run defense and third best pass defense from a year ago and finishing tied for fifth in total takeaways with 36 a season ago. They'll need to at least repeat that turnover performance if they're to have any hope of creating enough chances for their stagnant offense to stay in the playoff race. Taylor and fellow bookend Adewale Ogunleye are probably the best duo of Defensive Ends in the league, while Thomas combines with Junior Seau to form a terrific pair of linebackers. Rookie Will Poole should step in immediately to become the nickel back for the Dolphins, and forms a good trio of corners with Madison and Patrick Surtain, who finished fourth in the NFL with seven picks last year.

The Crystal Ball doesn't bode well for the Mammals in the early going, with Tennessee coming to town to start the year and a trip to improving Cincinnati following it. Their best chance at a win in their first five games would appear to be in Week Three, when they host Pittsburgh, but they should lose five of their next six before the bye week after that, as they face all three division rivals (including the rival Jets twice) in that span along with a home game against an offensive powerhouse, St. Louis. For this team to get any confidence out of the gate and challenge for the playoffs, they'll need to steal one of their first two games and get it going early. I just don't see that happenning, meaning it'll be a long season in South Florida.

We'll be back Friday with a look at how things should shape up in the NFC East.

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