Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

It's Almost Time!

Rather than returning to our prolonged divisional previews with just a week remaining until football season's underway, we're going to take the shortcut and do what this column does.... predict! Each division will get a short segment with some brief analysis on the division winner and a one-liner or two for everyone else.

Also, for the readers, we've set up a weekly pick set on Yahoo that we'll mention the weekly and yearly leaders of in the column each week. If you would like to join, it's completely free and can be joined through the link at the bottom of the column. Weekly prizes will be selecting the college Game of the Week, and I'll see if I can talk to Carlos about seeing if we have some stat trackers or something that we can give away to the overall winner at the end of the year.

Before we make our predictions for the 2004 football season, I'd like to point out that we are not doing any of this to be trendy. The favorites in virtually every publication I've read, every sports news show I've watched, and every other John Doe I run into on the street all sound the same. The difference? For once, it's beautiful to hear one of those teams that everyone is taking as the "it" team for this year. Fear not faithful readers, we'll most likely be doing just a couple of things exactly as we did last year: picking the Patriots and Seahawks virtually every week.

That's right Seattle fans (ummm.... hiding in the corner to try and show some sense of impartialness), we're not homers here at Out on a Limb, we just happen to think that the 'Hawks are extremely good this season. Just try and imagine what this team could be like if Koren Robinson or Darrell Jackson had the hands of that former Seahawk (and only 'Hawk HOFer) who got more out of his natural ability than any other receiver in the history of the game has? Steve Largent won't be returning to the sideline, and his amazing magnetic hands won't suddenly appear in the forms of stone-handed Koren Robinson or Darrell Jackson, but they'll catch enough balls to continue to move the most exciting offense in the league along deeper into the playoffs than they've ever been before.

The Patriots will once again be a major force in the AFC, though they should certainly have a couple of challengers that are more than capable of knocking them off. When all's said and done, Corey Dillon will shake the label of clubhouse cancer that he worked so hard to acquire in Cincinnati and lead this team to it's third Super Bowl appearance in four years. Will they pull it off again, though?

AFC East

New England Patriots: 12-4 - The Patriots are coming off of their second Super Bowl win in three years, and the scary thing is that they might even be better than they were last season. For one thing, New England finally has a legit feature back to take some pressure off of Tom Brady and the passing game, but that's not all. Entering his third season and coming off of what (in my eyes) should have been a Super Bowl MVP performance, Deion Branch is going to become a huge factor in the passing game this season. The old staple defense and special teams should again be huge, and the Pats should have little trouble winning another division title.

New York Jets: 10-6 - A healthy Chad Pennington means that this team should improve dramatically upon last season's disappointing finish, and a soft early season schedule should help them build a lot of confidence. The Jets probably aren't among the top six teams in the AFC, but they should still make a serious run at the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills: 7-9 - The offense should be much better than last year, but the Bills still appear to be at least a year away from playoff contention.

Miami Dolphins: 4-12 - Four wins may be generous. Their entire offense is designed around a player who retired right at the start of training camp. Their defense will win them a few ballgames, but if they can't move the ball, they're in trouble.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 - Look for second-year QB Kyle Boller to start to feel a lot more comfortable in Brian Billick's offense as the Ravens challenge New England for the AFC's Super Bowl berth. The offensive key will still be Jamal Lewis, and the defense remains as good as any in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 - Marvin Lewis has this team moving in the right direction, but he still doesn't have the personnel defensively to get the job done. Rudi Johnson will be the fantasy flop of the year, but Carson Palmer and a fine trio of receivers led by Chad Johnson will make this offense as formidable as any in the AFC.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-10 - Bill Cowher still gets the most out of his players, but his players simply don't have enough to get the job done.

Cleveland Browns: 5-11 - On the positive side, Tim Couch is gone.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 - This team will continue to be excellent in the regular season. They have arguably the top offense in the AFC, the top QB and WR in the league, and one of the top ten running backs in the league. While the defense continues to show steady improvement and is terrific when it comes to causing turnovers, it still isn't enough to get them deep enough into the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans: 10-6 - Addition by subtraction, or not? The defense should miss Jevon Kearse quite a bit, but the team should have an added dimension that they've lacked in the running game the past couple of seasons... a home run threat. Chris Brown's young legs will be a welcome addition in the backfield after Old Man Eddie's run the show the past couple of years, while Air McNair will continue to be the guttiest QB in the league next to Brett Favre. Punch their tickets for another postseason berth.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 - The Jags are certainly on their way up with a strong all-around defense and a terrific developing QB in Byron Leftwich. That said, this division is just too tough.

Houston Texans: 5-11 - This team will continue to improve in its third year, but they simply don't have the talent to compete in this division.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6 - The Chiefs still have one of the most exciting offenses in the league, but they're certainly aging. The addition of new (and former) defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham will be big as they work in an attacking defensive philosophy, but their personnel will hamper them come playoff time.

Denver Broncos: 8-8 - While Champ Bailey will mask some of the problems that they had in the secondary last season, this team will simply miss Clinton Portis too much on the offensive side of the ball. While they may still manage to piece together a 1,000 yard rusher out of their committee again, none will be the dominant presence that Portis was, leaving too much pressure on an overrated Jake Plummer to perform.

Oakland Raiders: 6-10 - Make no mistake about it. The Raiders are still an old and tired bunch, and they're nowhere near competing for a playoff spot.

San Diego Chargers: 4-12 - L.T. will continue to be one of the top backs in the league, but there's no supporting cast around him.

Bold Playoff Predictions

Wildcard
Ravens over Jets
Titans over Chiefs

Divisional
Ravens over Colts
Patriots over Titans

Championship
Patriots over Ravens on a last-second field goal

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5 - McNabb finally has a huge target, and he won't neglect T.O. It should be interesting to see if Brian Westbrook can handle a full season as the feature back, but this team will find ways to move the ball on the ground either way. The biggest problem with Philly's offseason? They didn't address their biggest defensive need. While they added Jevon Kearse to the defensive line, he's solely a pass rusher, and they were among the worst in the league against the run last year. It should also be fun to watch their corners learn on the job.

Washington Redskins: 9-7 - Portis will give this team exactly what Joe Gibbs wants... a dominant running back. That said, he has no line blocking for him. They'll somehow make the transition to being a .500 football team, which isn't a bad goal to set for this season.

Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 - Two biggest positives about the offseason? Carter and Hambrick are gone. Biggest negative? Vinny Testaverde now runs the show. The defense will be terrific, but their two biggest offensive skill players should be in a nursing home, not on a football field.

New York Giants: 5-11 - Warner? Manning? Does it matter? With this offensive line and the little talent around either one of their QBs, this team is going nowhere.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings: 10-6 - Can they rebound from the worst collapse in franchise history against the Cardinals last season? As long as Culpepper and Moss are around, don't count them out. The defense should be improved, but the three-headed rushing attack could cause more problems before the year's out.

Green Bay Packers: 9-7 - This may get them into the playoffs. Favre continues to age, though you can never doubt his effort. Green has matured into an excellent all-around back, but age, injuries, and an inconsistent receiving core could be this team's downfall.

Detroit Lions: 7-9 - With youth and talent all-around on the offensive side of the ball and a solid defense, this team looks to be a year away from contention.

Chicago Bears: 5-11 - Lovie Smith will start the rebuilding process for the Bears, but he's got a long way to go. The offense should be exciting in a couple of seasons, and the defense will run Lovie's typical Cover-2.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers: 11-5 - The window may close fast in Carolina, with an aging offensive superstar, but this could be another terrific year. They have the top front four in the league, a great defense, and a fantastic ball control offense. Jake Delhomme will continue to emerge at the QB position, and DeShaun Foster will take on a slightly bigger role in the running game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-6 - The Bucs will be much better than a lot of people want to give them credit for. With or without Sapp and Lynch, this team still has one of the top defenses in the league to go along with a fun spread offense that Brad Johnson knows how to run.

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 - Mike Vick will be ready to go for the season opener, and teams still can't find a way to defend him. Jim Mora, Jr. will help to turn this defense around a bit this year, but it should take until his second season for his impact to truly be felt.

New Orleans Saints: 7-9 - This league can be fun, can't it. Just two years ago, the Saints seemed to be the preseason favorites, but now they're nearly a cinch to finish last. They'll still be tough, but don't have the talent to compete in this division.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 - Convinced we're just jumping on the bandwagon? Au contraire, my friends. Yours truly picked the Seahawks to win fifteen of their seventeen games right here in this column last year. Seattle has the guns on offense, one of the top emerging stars in the league in Matt Hasselbeck, and a defense that should be improved thanks to some experience and the addition of monster line-clogging first round pick Marcus Tubbs.

St. Louis Lambs: 9-7 - That 9-7 will win the tiebreak among three other teams and place the Lambs as the lowest seed in the playoffs. Unfortunately for St. Louis, we all know how it seemed that Martz was castrated near the end of last year's playoff disappointment. In order for the Lambs to make the playoffs, they must go 5-1 within the division, splitting with the 'Hawks and sweeping the two teams that only they and Seattle get to beat up on twice.

Arizona Cardinals: 3-13 - Will Dennis Green turn this team around? Maybe eventually. Right now, they don't have a legit QB, they don't have a legit RB, and their defense is borderline awful. While they have a fantastic young receiving core, if nobody can get the ball to them, they're in trouble. Two of their wins will come courtesy of the worst team in football.

San Francisco 49ers: 1-15 - It's sad to see just how far a once-proud franchise like the Niners can fall, but it's happened. Kevan Barlow will be the only legitimate NFL starter that they have on the offensive side of the ball, and he simply can't carry this team by himself. While the defense will still be OK, it's not good enough to win many ballgames without the offense putting some points on the board.

Bold Playoff Predictions

NFC Wildcard
Tampa Bay over Minnesota
Carolina over St. Louis

Divisional
Seattle over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia over Carolina

Championship
Seattle over Philadelphia

Super Bowl
Seattle over New England

College Conference Champs
Just for fun this year, we're going to spotlight one college game a week as well. The person who selects the game of the week in college will be the weekly winner of the pool on Yahoo.

* = Conference Championship Game Winners

ACC - Miami
Big East - West Virginia
Big XII (North) - Missouri
Big XII (South) - Oklahoma *
Big Ten - Iowa
Conference USA - Southern Mississippi
MAC - Miami (OH)
Mountain West - Utah
Pac-10 - USC
SEC (East) - Georgia *
SEC (West) - LSU
WAC - Hawaii

National Championship - USC over Oklahoma

To join the weekly pool, click on the link below. The ID # is 28217 and the password is FIC. Any and all of our readers are welcome, as is the remainder of the FIC staff.

Link to the weekly pool.

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