Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

It's Go Time

Welcome to the official beginning of the column for this season. The previews and the preseason are done, and now it's time to see if we can get past all the hype and start coming through with some solid predictions. As a reminder to all of our readers who may be interested, we have set up a group with Yahoo's Pro Football Pick'em which will determine who picks our college game of the week with a weekly winner and we'll have a special prize at the end of the season for the overall winner.

Link to Yahoo Pro Pick'em

When you get there, all you have to do is take your Yahoo ID and sign up for free by joining private group #28217 with a password of "FIC" (please note that it's cap sensitive). So far, only three members have joined, and I was hoping that quite a few more of you might be interested.

With that out of the way, let's get to it!

It's Go Time!

January 18, 2004. There was so much clutching and grabbing by the corners that the league actually modified their rules, much like the last time the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl. This time it was in the AFC title game rather than the divisional playoffs, but you still get the gist. The Indianapolis Colts will be out for blood as they head up to New England for a season-opening rematch to last year's dreadfully officiated contest.

New England will put their amazing fifteen-game winning streak on the line as they host the defending AFC South champs, but don't expect them to be cocky. Bill Belichik still gets his team up for a game better than any coach in the league, and the scary thing is that the Pats actually improved on paper during the offseason. That's not too easy to do when you've won two of the last three big ones!

All in all, this game should set the tone for what should be another terrific and tightly contested season in the AFC. Though it's way too far in the future to predict this now, there's a good shot that these two teams will meet again with the same stakes as last year, and you can bet that the Colts don't want to have to play the Pats in the snow again.

Game of the Week: Indianapolis at New England

When Indianapolis has the ball: This is really what all the pre-game hype will be leading up to. With a completely healthy Edgerrin James for the first time in three years, Indianapolis arguably sports the best offense in the league, and New England is known for having an amazing defense. When it all comes down to it, though, can they really stop the high flying Colts receivers without making contact beyond the first five yards?

Peyton Manning continues to be at the top of his game year in and year out, and he'll have his unit firing on all cylinders on Thursday. Marvin Harrison is coming off of an "off" year in which he gained over 1,200 yards through the air, and you can bet that he'll at least match that this season. What will make this unit really amazing as compared to last year's squad, though, is James. Now that he's playing at 100% again, James will be huge in establishing the run and keeping pressure off of Manning, and he'll even catch about 80 balls out of the backfield. With an offensive gameplan that should be just as diverse as it was a few years ago when Jim Mora was running the show, bet on the Colts to find ways to beat whatever defensive unit is across the field from them.... and that includes even Belichik's amazing Pats.

The problem for the Patriots will be that diversity, as he always seems to like to gameplan to take away his opponents' strength. He won't be able to focus on that Thursday, as the Colts can beat you in dozens of different ways. Expect the Pats to focus on the pass, and expect Edge to get off to a big start and announce that he's ready to lead his team to glory this season.

When the Patriots have the ball: New England doesn't have quite the horses that the Colts do (I swear that pun was unintentional), but they still have plenty of firepower themselves. Troy Brown isn't likely to start for the Patriots, but they'll unveil their shiny new offseason acquisition when Corey Dillon first steps on the field. While Dillon certainly had his critics in Cincinnati, not much of what they used to criticize him had to do with his play on the field. He should flourish in New England, particularly now that he's on a team that knows how to win around him.

As terrific as Tom Brady is, if the Patriots come out running and gunning in this one (as they have at times in the past), they're meat. Brady will still spread the field from time to time and find Deion Branch and David Givens plenty of times, but the Pats will really miss Brown's presence at wideout in this one. The best way for New England to win this ballgame may be for Belichik to take his old boss' queue against the high-powered Buffalo Bills over a decade ago.... play keepaway. If New England tries to get in a slugfest, Manning will get his revenge.

The Colts' defense is a lot better than advertised, and has improved in each of its first two seasons under Tony Dungy. What they're best at is creating turnovers, and they may have to come up with a pick or a big fumble recovery to pull this one out late.

Special Teams: As much as the Patriots are usually a guaranteed lead-pipe lock in this matchup against most teams, the Colts have the best kicker in the league in Mike Vanderjagt. Vanderjagt was perfect last season, and any ball that's on his foot late in the game is just as likely to go through the uprights as it would be if it was on Mr. Clutch, Adam Vinatieri's. I do have to give the Pats a slight edge everywhere else, but I'd take Vanderjagt (better range, more accurate) over Vinatieri anyday.

Coaching/Intangibles: As amazing as Tony Dungy is (when was the last time he coached a team that missed the playoffs????), Belichik will still have his team better prepared. Although the Pats won the Super Bowl way back in late January, you can bet that Belichik's been prepping for this game since about February 1. Both coaches are great defensive minds who will rely primarily on their coordinators when the offense has the ball.... As far as intangibles go, as much as the Pats want this game, the Colts are just going to want it more so that they can make a statement.

The Verdict: Unlike last season's Redskins-Jets lemon, the NFL has truly picked a gem to kick off the year. This may not only be the best game of Week One, but the best game all season. Indianapolis will attack all game long, while New England will counter with terrific defense and show just how improved their running game is. When it all comes down to it, Mike Vanderjagt will show just how clutch he can be, snatching victory from the Pats in the final seconds. Colts 24, Patriots 23

Lock of the Week: Tennessee at Miami

That's right, Mammal-haters (I know there are plenty of other ones), this is your year. Expect the Dolphins to end up on the wrong side of this segment several times throughout the year, as they lost the only player they had a legitimate gameplan for when Ricky Williams decided pot was more important than football. While Tennessee lost last season's feature back themselves, Chris Brown is ready to announce his presence with authority, but the difference will be the league's co-MVP last season, Steve McNair. Seriously, all they have to do is score a touchdown against this Miami offense anyway. Titans 27, Dolphins 6

Upset Special: Detroit at Chicago

Yeah, I know. Detroit has lost 24 straight on the road, but it's bound to end some time, isn't it? The Bears won 24-16 when they played in Soldier Field last season, but the Lions should be a completely different ballclub. A healthy Charles Rogers, a real running game, and a solid second receiver in Roy Williams should give Joey Harrington the weapons to make this the most improved offensive ballclub in the league this season, and their defense never really was that bad. They'll show it this week as they snap that road losing streak against a very average Bears' squad. Lions 24, Bears 13

And now, as we try and figure out if any more teams can scam their way into the NL Wildcard race, we'll skip on to the rest...

Jacksonville at Buffalo - The two-headed running back committee will eventually sort itself out in Buffalo, but neither Travis Henry nor Willis McGahee are going to have an easy time moving the ball on the Jags. Fred Taylor (widely known throughout preseason and drafts as a suddenly durable back?) won't have quite as much trouble with Buffalo's defensive front, and Byron Leftwich will make a new friend, showing a hint of what a combo he and Reggie Williams can be down the road with a touchdown pass to him. Jags 20, Bills 17

Oakland at Pittsburgh - Just two years ago, this would have been a great matchup on paper. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Take the Raiders to score the upset as Rich Gannon shows he's still got a little left in the tank. Raiders 20, Steelers 10

Baltimore at Cleveland - While Jamal Lewis may manage to keep his mouth shut about how he's going to break the NFL single-game rushing record, he'll still be in the lineup. That doesn't bode well for the Brownies. Lewis will go for 150 and two touches. Ravens 23, Browns 17

Tampa Bay at Washington - Tampa's going to be better than everyone thinks.... Washington's going to be just a little worse than everyone thinks... the two will meet in the middle, with Tampa winning a tight one because of their (still!) tremendous defense. Bucs 20, Redskins 17

San Diego at Houston - Houston's 2-0 in their history in season openers (beat Dallas in 2002 and Miami in a shocker last year). San Diego is coming off of a season in which they had the #1 overall draft pick. The Bolts would be headed to that distinction for a second straight year if the 49ers didn't exist. Texans 23, Bolts 14

Arizona at St. Louis - If you're taking the Rams and that ridiculous eleven point spread, you need your head examined. With St. Louis' offensive line problems, expect Marc Bulger to end up on his back more often than a ten dollar hooker. Denny Green will start to right the ship in Arizona (if Bill Bidwill lets him), but he'll have to settle for a close loss to the defending division champs to start his tenure in Arizona. Rams 24, Cardinals 20

Seattle at New Orleans - When was the last time we picked against the Hawks? Ironically, this is a rematch of last season's opener, in which Seattle rolled out to a 27-0 lead and held on 27-10. Expect much of the same here, as the Hawks start their roll. 'Hawks 30, Saints 17

Cincinnati at New York Jets - This is a crucial game for the Jets, as they have to get off to a hot start against a relatively weak early schedule. Unfortunately for them, Cincinnati is probably the toughest team they'll draw until week seven when they head to New England. I said they'd win this game and head into New England 5-0 in my initial season preview, and I'm sticking by it. Carson Palmer will be a good QB in this league, but he should struggle a bit in his first start. J-E-T-S 24, Bengals 20

New York Giants at Philadelphia - The positive thing for Kurt Warner? The Giants start on the road so that he doesn't have to remember that brutal Week One at Giants Stadium that he had with the Lambs last year. The negative? He's still going to end up on his back all day long. McNabb and the Eagles roll to start the year this time. Eagles 26, Giants 10

Atlanta at San Francisco - Both of the teams that will be featured in our new College Game of the Week at the end of this column would beat the 49ers. Mike Vick needs some time to get used to the new offense in Atlanta, and lucked into this as his team starts the year with a virtual bye. Falcons 27, Niners 9

Dallas at Minnesota - Everyone's making a big deal about how Randy Moss has smoked the Cowboys his whole career, but didn't Dallas have the top defense in the league last season? It won't matter in the end, though, as the washed-up duo of Testaverde and George will struggle against a tough and underrated Vikings defense. Vikes win big. Vikings 30, Cowgirls 13

Kansas City at Denver - The Broncos apparently though enough of Champ Bailey to send Clinton Portis packing this offseason, and he'll face a big test right off the bat. Even with all of his receivers out of the lineup, Trent Green will still find ways to lead this team down the field. Priest struggled against the Broncos last season, amassing just 141 yards in their two games, but a certain return specialist had his best receiving day (seriously... 11 catches for 141 yards) of his career the last time these two teams met in Denver. Expect Dante Hall to shed the label of just being a great return man with the Chiefs' receiving woes. Chiefs 34, Broncos 31

Green Bay at Carolina - The last time Brett Favre played on a Monday night, he torched the Raiders for four scores in the first half. Don't expect his entire team to do that in 60 minutes against the Panthers. Carolina is out to prove last year wasn't a fluke, and they'll get it going early by winning a defensive struggle at home. Panthers 17, Packers 13

College Game of the Week: Florida St. at Miami

This is, of course, assuming they aren't forced to reschedule because of Hurricane Ivan. As if they really needed any more reason for this game to be emotional, almost every player on each team was affected in some way, shape, or form by Hurricane Frances last weekend, which delayed this game in the first place. Expect Miami's 'Canes to have the bigger impact here, though.

Florida St. will be without two key cogs in this one, Center David Castillo and Guard David Meeks, and that could mean that Chris Rix will be under fire from a quick, talented, and hungry Miami defense all day. Throw in the fact that last season's feature back, Greg Jones, is now up the road in Jacksonville, and Rix will be under a lot of pressure to carry his offense. He simply won't be able to do it.

While Brock Berlin certainly proved that he was no Ken Dorsey last season, he should continue to be an adequate signal-caller for the 'Canes provided that Frank Gore is in the backfield. Gore will run all over the 'Noles on Friday night and lead them to a tight victory. Miami 27, Florida St. 23

Don't forget to join our pick'em group, where you can win a decision to choose our weekly college game or one of our season-long prizes with a great showing overall. The links are up at the top of the page for anyone who is interested.

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