Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

As a reminder to all of our readers who may be interested, we have set up a group with Yahoo's Pro Football Pick'em which will determine who picks our college game of the week with a weekly winner and we'll have a special prize at the end of the season for the overall winner.

Congrats to last week's winner, Steel Wheel, who tied for the most points in week one and won outright this week.

Pitcher's Duel?

As many of you know, I double up on this site and am the columnist of "The Hook" (our pitching column) on the baseball side of things. It's no mystery that I love those tight, low-scoring affairs no matter what the sport is. I'm a New Jersey Devils fan, for crying out loud! So, while most sites and papers that bother to have someone predict the games each week will go with the sexier, higher-scoring affiar that the Colts and Packers should provide us with on Sunday, we're going a different route.

The Jaguars were high on quite a few peoples' lists entering the season, though most considered them a fringe playoff contender. They've gotten out of the gates fast, but it hasn't had anything to do with Fred Taylor going wild or Byron Leftwich's maturation as an NFL Quarterback. It's been all about that amazing defense, as the Jags have scored just 20 points in the first two games combined in getting off to a 2-0 start.

Will they be able to hang on for dear life again against last year's co-MVP Steve McNair and the Titans, or will someone finally realize that you have to attack this team through the air? It may not be the game that everyone will tune into. It certainly won't be for the faint of heart who would rather watch a team like, say, the 1999 Rams. It is, however, one of the only key divisional matchups we'll see this week, and we'll get to see if Jacksonville is for real.

Game of the Week: Jacksonville at Tennessee

When the Jags have the ball: Fred Taylor has yet to really get going so far, and has barely eclipsed the 50-yard mark in each of the first two games. While the Titans have been known for their run defense for the past few seasons, they're certainly not the same team they were even a year ago. After not allowing a 100-yard rusher in 29 home games, the Titans were run over by Edgerrin James and the Colts last week. Taylor averaged 4.9 a carry against the Titans last season, and is a safe bet to finally get on the board here.

They'll need him to get going, because that Leftwich maturation project (along with an extremely young receiving corps) isn't exactly happenning on schedule. Lord Byron has thrown for just 267 yards and two touchdowns in the first two games, while completing just 50% of his passes. He'll need Taylor to get going to take some pressure off of the passing game and open up some room downfield.

When the Titans have the ball: All it takes is one quick look at the stats to see that the Jaguars have allowed just 201 yards on 67 rushing attempts (an average of 3 yards a carry), and these were against two teams whose running game is their strength. In short, this will not be a banner day for Chris Brown, and Tennessee needs to realize this by allowing Steve McNair to spread the field and find his receivers a little more often than usual. Jacksonville has been solid against the pass, though they haven't generated much of a pass rush (just 1 sack in 2 games), so McNair should have plenty of time to move around in the pocket and find the open man.

Contrary to the news that had been going around earlier in the week, Drew Bennett is expected to play, though Tyrone Calico (who has missed the first two games) is still listed as questionable, and will probably be a game-time decision. If they were both at 100%, I just couldn't possibly see Tennessee losing this game to the Jags, but the Jags have had some other things go their way in the first couple of games, so it would be less than shocking if they were lucky enough to face an undermanned receiving corps. Regardless, McNair will find ways to beat them, and Jeff Fisher should limit Chris Brown to 15-20 carries unless they get a big lead.

Special Teams: Due to Joe Nedney's second straight season-ending injury right before the season started, neither team has a definitive edge in the kicking game. Tennessee will use 300-year-old all-time scoring leader Gary Andersen, who is lucky to have the range to kick a 40-yarder with the wind at his back at this point, while Jacksonville will trot out unproven rookie Josh Scobee. If there is an edge here at all, it's that Craig Hentrich may be the best punter in the business at this point. For Jacksonville, Jermaine Lewis used to be as close a threat as there was to what Dante Hall is now when he was with Baltimore a few years back, but he seems to have lost half a step.

Intangibles: The Titans are at home and have their backs against the wall a bit in the early going. After falling to Indianapolis in Week 2, they already find themselves behind in the tiebreak with the team they're supposed to compete with for the division title, but (more importantly), they'll fall two back of the unbeaten Jags if they lose here. Jacksonville is up-and-coming, but they really have nothing to lose, which can be a dangerous thing for any of their opponents. Jeff Fisher definitely has the edge in experience over Jack Del Rio, and the Titans will be much better prepared for how intense this game should be because they're a perrenial playoff team.

The Verdict: Jacksonville's for real... in 2005. They'll be outmanned, outplayed, and outcoached on every level in this one, and should gain some valuable knowledge in the school of hard knocks. Expect them to give most teams a heck of a fight, and they may stay in this one until the final five minutes, but they just don't look ready for prime time yet. Titans 20, Jaguars 13

Lock of the Week: Seattle over San Francisco

After going just 2-6 on the road last season, the Seahawks have started the year 2-0 away from home. This week, they'll finally return to the friendly confines of Seahawk Stadium, where they went 8-0 last season. The Niners gave them a good game in Seattle last season, falling just a point short of the victory, but they were one of Seattle's two victims on the road, and this Niners' team is a far cry from last year's version. I'd be shocked if Seattle didn't win by at least two touchdowns. Seahawks 30, Niners 10

Upset Special: New Orleans at St. Louis

After watching Mike Martz challenge an onside kick that went 15 yards and try to challenge a fumble in the end zone that never hit the ground and would have been an interception either way, we truly know how this "offensive genius" didn't know what the score was when the Rams started their final drive in the last preseason game. This week, his defense will be in trouble, as the Saints put up 30 last week and they're without number two corner DeJuan Groce. Aeneas Williams will move back to corner to take his place, but he's nowhere near the shutdown star he was a few years ago, and Aaron Brooks should find Donte Stallworth and Joe Horn open quite a bit. Deuce McCallister won't play, but the Saints won't need him against Martz and the Lambs. Whodat! 23, Lambs 17

And now, as I continue to ponder just how Ryan Vogelsong ended two of my fantasy baseball teams' seasons, we'll get to the rest...

Houston at Kansas City - This game should be an absolute shootout, but I just can't see the Texans sticking with the Chiefs.... even if Kansas City doesn't have a single legit NFL wideout on the roster and Priest Holmes is banged up. Chiefs 34, Texans 30

Pittsburgh at Miami - Dolphins officially learned today that they'll get $8.6 million for breach of contract from Ricky Williams, assuming he doesn't file for bankruptcy. That should be the only good news they hear all year. Steelers 13, Mammals 10

Arizona at Atlanta - Cardinals are still a QB and a Running Back away from being a legitimate NFL team. The Pats ran all over them last week, and Arizona is dreaming if they think they can contain Mike Vick. Falcons 27, Cardinals 16

Chicago at Minnesota - The Bears capitalized on facing our "curse" of the week against the Packers, but they'll have no such luck facing their second consecutive opponent who played on Monday night. The Vikes saw they still have a little ways to go to contend for the NFC title in Philadelphia, but Moss and Co. should see little resistance from the Bears. Vikes 31, Bears 20

Baltimore at Cincinnati - These two teams should battle it out for the AFC North, and my gut tells me the home team will win in both of their games. The Bungles struggled, but held off the hapless Dolphins last week, while Baltimore showed they just might be nearly as good as everyone thinks in dispatching of the Steelers easily. Neither faced a true test, but the Bengals high-flying offense will find holes in Baltimore's secondary this week. Bungles 20, Lenore 17

Cleveland at New York Giants - The Giants somehow found a way to keep Washington off the board, but I'm not expecting Jeff Garcia to turn the ball over seven times. The Browns are better than advertised, despite last week's loss in Dallas. The Giants are... well. I still say Eli Manning will be starting in the next three weeks. Browns 26, Giants 17

Philadelphia at Detroit - The Lions have gotten out of the gate at 2-0, but they've yet to beat anyone. Donovan McNabb and T.O. are proving to be an even more fearsome tandem than anticipated. That should bode well for Philly against a banged-up Detroit secondary. Eagles 31, Lions 13

San Diego at Denver - Quentin Griffin didn't look like quite the back last week that he did against the Chiefs, but the Chargers' defense is good medicine for any running back. L.T. will have his typical great game, but it simply won't be enough if they can't stop the Broncs. Broncos 37, Chargers 27

Green Bay at Indianapolis - After looking dominant in their opener against the Panthers, the Pack sure tossed up a lemon against the Bears last week at home. Look for them to drop behind the Vikings this week, as Manning, James, and Harrison (not to mention Mike Vanderjagt [?]) are on a mission to prove they can beat New England.... it'll probably take another trip to the AFC Championship game to do that. Colts 27, Packers 23

Tampa Bay at Oakland - Two years ago, they played in the Super Bowl. It's funny just how fast things change in the NFL nowadays. Raiders 12, Bucs 9

Dallas at Washington - It looks like Patrick Ramsey will have to start this week, though Mark Brunell finally practiced Friday. Either way, don't expect Joe Gibbs to have a lot of faith in his QB. Thankfully for the Skins, they have Clinton Portis, and Vinny's magical 350+ yard games have to end at some point. This won't be the worst MNF game of the year in terms of score differential, but it may be pretty unwatchable unless you're a fan of either team. Redskins 17, Cowboys 13

College Game of the Week: Iowa at Michigan

Have the Wolverines lost the mystique? After falling apart in the second half of the Notre Dame game two weeks ago, they headed home and barely outlasted San Diego St. 24-21. In the meantime, one of the Big Ten co-favorites, the Hawkeyes, got absolutely slaughtered 44-7 by Arizona St. in Tuscon last week, so they're up in the air as well. This matchup of two underachieving powers will hinge primarily on two simple, fundamental factors, though.

Can Chad Henne keep the ball away from the opposition for the Wolverines? It sure didn't look like it last week, or the week before for that matter. While Michigan is a fairly heavy (13 point) favorite entering the game, the Hawkeye squad they face will be the best they've seen so far this year.... and they've beaten the Wolverines two years running.

The other factor will be Michigan's ability to stop the power running game that Iowa will shove down their throat. After being run all over by Darius Walker two weeks ago, they were able to contain SDSU's running game last week. The problem? The Aztecs live and die through the air. If they can find a way to contain the two-headed rushing attack of Jermelle Lewis and Albert Young, it may not take much for Michigan to pull out the victory.

I'm going against them, though. Iowa will beat Michigan for the third time in three years and make an improbable return to prominence after getting thrashed at ASU last week. Lewis, Young, and Marques Simmons will combined for 250+ yards on the ground, and, while Henne will find Braylon Edwards for a score, he'll find a couple of Hawkeye corners as well. Iowa 20, Michigan 17

On the Year (Last Week in Parentheses)

Overall: 17-15 (8-8)
Game of the Week: 0-2 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 1-1 (0-1)
Upset Special: 1-1 (0-1)
College Game of the Week: 1-0 (0-0)

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[1] by samuelire (unregistered) on 09/25/2004 10:36 am

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Quote:

Lock of the Week: Seattle over San Francisco After going just 2-6 on the road last season, the Seahawks have started the year 2-0 away from home. This week, they'll finally return to the friendly confines of Seahawk Stadium, where they went 8-0 last season. The Niners gave them a good game in Seattle last season, falling just a point short of the victory, but they were one of Seattle's two victims on the road, and this Niners' team is a far cry from last year's version. I'd be shocked if Seattle didn't win by at least two touchdowns. Seahawks 30, Niners 10

I have to agree with with that one. Even before reading your article I made a bet with a buddy that the Niners would go down in flames.

I just joined the Pickem group too.