Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Jags survive first test, but can they stop Peyton?

As a reminder to all of our readers who may be interested, we have set up a group with Yahoo's Pro Football Pick'em which will determine who picks our college game of the week with a weekly winner and we'll have a special prize at the end of the season for the overall winner.

Link to Yahoo Pro Pick'em

When you get there, all you have to do is take your Yahoo ID and sign up for free by joining private group #28217 with a password of "FIC" (please note that it's cap sensitive).

Congrats to last week's winner, becksterg, who chose the LSU-Georgia game as our college game of the week.

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I hate to do what I'm about to do because I feel like we're taking away the variety of the column a bit. For the second straight week, we'll be going with a key AFC South matchup as our Game of the Week, and it will even feature one of the same teams from last week's game.

So, tell me readers, is it time to jump on that old Jaguar bandwagon? I wasn't sold when they scored a touchdown on the final play of the game to snatch victory from defeat against the Bills. I still wasn't sold after the Broncos handed them a victory in Week Two by failing to run the clock down and kick what looked like a sure thing for one of the most reliable kickers in the history of the game. What'd they do last week, you ask? They made me eat crow for the third straight week by going into Nashville and taking down the Titans with a last-minute Fred Taylor touchdown.

Here's the kicker, though. I still don't buy it! Are they a legit threat to contend for (or even possibly win) the Super Bowl next year? Absolutely. Can they stick with a team that's able to put some points on the board against that rock solid defense, though? I just don't see it happening.

Game of the Week: Indianapolis at Jacksonville

When Indianapolis has the ball: As terrific as Jacksonville's defense has been, it's time that someone tries to confuse them. Peyton Manning and Co. can do this to anyone, as he can run the no-huddle better than any QB has consistently since Jim Kelly. By forcing the Jags hand on defense, they should be able to disguise a lot of their plays and keep Jacksonville guessing all game, and that will be the key.

Manning needs no introduction for most of our readers. He's already thrown for an astounding 903 yards in three games, and has an amazing 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He's clearly been the best pocket passer in the game for the past five seasons, and he has a million and one targets to throw to on the field, as he proved last week.

For those whose eyes bugged out of their heads when they saw that Marvin Harrison was the only member of the Colts' top three receivers who didn't have 100+ yards receiving last week when Manning went off on the Packers for nearly 400 yards and 5 touchdowns, you weren't alone. Reggie Wayne has continued to emerge for the past couple of seasons in this receiver-friendly offense, and Brandon Stokely has already surpassed his total receiving yards from last year. As Manning's slot receiver, he figures to continue to be a solid target who could garner about 500 yards and four or five scores the rest of the way.

Regardless of how good Manning and his receivers are, though, Edgerrin James is a vital cog in the offense that can make it unstoppable at times and downgrade it to pretty good when he's not running well. If Manning can truly keep the Jags defense tired, on the field, and off-balance with the passing game, Edge should have a big day... regardless of how good Jacksonville's run defense is.

When the Jaguars have the ball: Byron Leftwich showed last week, just as he did in Week One against Buffalo, that he is going to be a star in this league. He has that all-important knack for coming through in the clutch, just as John Elway and Joe Montana did. Whether he's ready to display this for a full sixty minutes or not is the question. He should be much better in the next couple of seasons after they've gotten some better (or, in Reggie Williams' case, more experienced) targets around him. While Jimmy Smith is still terrific, he's not quite the number one he was a few years ago.

Fred Taylor finally seemed to be getting on track last week, nearly doubling his rushing total from the first two games and finding the end zone on the game-winning drive. He's had some big games against the Colts in the past, including an average of 139 yards and a score against them last year. If he can start rolling like he did last season, it should take a lot of pressure off of the passing game. If not, it's going to be a long day.

Special Teams

Unlike last week, when the Titans seemed to have a slight edge here, the Colts have a significant one. Mike Vanderjagt is arguably the best place kicker in the game today, and Hunter Smith could be considered among the top ten punters in the league.... if the Colts ever needed him. Josh Scobee has yet to test his mettle much. The rook is perfect on the year, but that just means that he's made five kicks... none of them longer than 27 yards.

Coaching/Intangibles

Tony Dungy is a grizzled veteran coach who has made the playoffs five years in a row. Jack Del Rio has done a phenomenal job rebuilding the Jags in his first two years, but certainly doesn't have Dungy's experience.... The Jags continue to become more and more confident every week, and they're at home.

The Verdict: As I said in the opening, I still don't buy it. Somehow, the Jags were run all over last week by Chris Brown, and they still came out on top. Indy's offense, however, shoots first and asks questions later, and they won't slow down for Jacksonville in this one. While the Jags will score more points than they've scored so far this year, they can't keep up in a track meet with the Colts. Colts 30, Jaguars 20

Lock of the Week: Philadelphia over Chicago

True... the Bears have already beaten our lock once, upsetting the Packers in Green Bay in Week Two, but they simply won't even make a game of this one. The Eagles have been firing on all cylinders all year, smoking every team they play, and the Bears suddenly find themselves without second-year-starting QB Rex Grossman the rest of the way. Don't expect them to just lie down and die the rest of the year, but they don't have enough ammo to keep up with the Eagles. Eagles 27, Bears 10

Upset Special: Kansas City over Baltimore

Call me crazy! Everyone thinks the Chiefs are dead, and they absolutely have to win this week to prove their doubters wrong. They seemingly transformed from a defense that parted like the red sea against the run to a decent team against the run last week against the Texans, and they'll have an opportunity to load up in the box all night against the Ravens. While Kyle Boller still may grow into a decent NFL QB, he's not there yet, meaning this game will either be the Jamal Lewis Show or Ravens fans will be in for another disappointing loss like they had in Week One. Throw in a banged-up Baltimore secondary and this should be a terrific game. I'd definitely take the 5.5 points the Ravens are giving, but I think the Chiefs win straight up here. Chiefs 27, Ravens 23

And now, as we try and figure out how the West will be won in both the AL and the NL, we'll move on to the rest...

New England at Buffalo - The Pats have a chance to tie the record for consecutive wins at 18, and if the Bills first couple of games are any indication, they should have no problems here. Pats 24, Bills 10

Washington at Cleveland - The 'Skins may be hurting a bit after their tight loss to the rival Cowboys last week, but at least Brunell found a go-to-guy in Rod Gardner. The Browns are starting to look more and more like their season-opening upset of the Ravens will be the only positive thing they're involved in this year. Redskins 17, Browns 9

Oakland at Houston - The Raiders are shocking the world with their 3-1 start, but have they played anybody yet???? Though the Texans avoided the dreaded 0-3 start in Kansas City last week, they're in a lot of trouble this week without Domanick Davis. No balance = No win. At least A's fans will have something to cheer for this weekend. Raiders 20, Texans 17

New York Giants at Green Bay - Kurt Warner suddenly looks revitalized now that he can avoid the Mike Martz doghouse. We can only hope they start losing again so Brenda stays out of the news and off the TV screen! The Packer offense looked phenomenal last week, but the defense looked like it couldn't stop my old high school team. Expect a better effort this time from the Pack D. Packers 34, Giants 23

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - Marvin Lewis' squad turned in a lemon against his old squad last week, mustering just nine points despite being on Baltimore's half of the field nearly all game. The Steelers will just be happy enough not to have to deal with a hurricane. Bungles 20, Roethlisbergers 17

Atlanta at Carolina - You've heard it all week. Mike Vick kills the Panthers, right? Not this time. The Falcons may be undefeated, but Vick still looks lost in this offense, and that can't be good against a team with a front four like the Panthers'. While the Panthers are missing Steve Smith and Stephen Jackson, they can still put up more than the measley three points the Cardinals scored against Atlanta last week... and they're much better defensively. Panthers 17, Falcons 13

New Orleans at Arizona - The Saints will continue to build on their soft early-season schedule in this one, as Denny Green continues to try and turn Bill Bidwill's ship around.... It may take a while. At least Larry Fitzgerald looks like he may live up to the hype.... now he just needs someone to get the ball to him and someone for that guy to hand it off to. Whodat! 30, Cardinals 10

Denver at Tampa Bay - These Bucs are starting to remind me of theit teams of the 1980's. Denver won't blow them out of the water like the Raiders did, but it won't be pretty. Broncos 24, Bucs 13

New York Jets at Miami - This is the Dolphins Super Bowl, or, in other words, the only game that will mean anything that involves them all season long. Seriously, though... they hate the Jets so much that they went back to Jay Fiedler at QB? Remember... the Jets will head into New England at 5-0. J-E-T-S 23, Mammals 6

Tennessee at San Diego - Is the Titans window closing? With or without McNair (and anyone who knows anything about him knows he will play) under center, they should have enough to take down the Chargers. It should be a typical game for San Diego... another great game out of LT, and another L in the standings. Titans 27, Chargers 24

St. Louis at San Francisco - You've gotta love it if you're a Seahawks fan! Two winless teams and the worst head coach in football are all that stand between them and their first NFC West crown. Even Mike Martz can't blow this one, though. Lambs 27, Niners 17

College Game of the Week: LSU at Georgia

This game pits two of the most underachieving teams in the country against one another in a game that has some extreme national title implications, and it should be interesting to see just which team can get their offense on track.

David Greene entered the season as a trendy Heisman pick. In most peoples' eyes, he was the best QB in the country, though he's been overshadowed by Alex Smith (Utah), Jason White (Oklahoma), and Matt Leinart (USC) again, as well as a ton of other QBs across the nation. The Georgia offense has yet to get on track, putting up just 33 points in their last two games. The return of RB Danny Ware, who was a monster in his college debut, should help Greene to get back on track in this one, though the points won't come in bunches because they may be playing against the best defense in the country.

LSU's offensive problems stem mainly from the fact that they lost QB Matt Mauck to graduation after last season, as frosh JeMarcus Russell looks like he needs some more time to develop and senior Marcus Randall doesn't look like he's the guy to lead this team. On the positive side, they have gotten enough out of their running game to stay in the hunt, and their defense is proving to be as dominant as advertised, giving up just 13 points in the last three games.

With two teams struggling to find their offensive identity, I would normally take the better defense, but I just can't find a way to go against all of the upside and potential that Georgia's offense has shown me that they have in the past couple of years. David Greene will shine in this one, leading a pivotal early drive to set the tone and engineering a great TD drive late to put the game out of reach. Danny Ware is the real deal, and will take a lot of pressure off Greene by tossing in a couple of 15+ yard runs and keeping LSU honest. Georgia hasn't been beaten between the hedges in sixteen games, and I don't see anyone beating them there this year. Bulldogs 24, Tigers 13

The Numbers (Last Week)
On the Year: 26-20 (9-5)
Game of the Week: 0-3 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 2-1 (1-0)
Upset Special: 2-1 (1-0)
College Game of the Week: 1-1 (0-1)

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