MLB Playoff and Award Predictions
October 06, 2004
It seems like it's been ten years since I made my preseason predictions in my baseball column, "The Hook," so I guess it's time to see how confident I am in them. Though we didn't nail all eight playoff teams on the head, we did figure out half of the postseason picture and, most importantly, we find that our two teams that we predicted to square off in the World Series are still alive. Will the Houston Astros still beat the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, as I confidently penciled in about six months ago? Let's find out.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Why the Dodgers can win: In order to knock off the heavily-favored Cardinals, the Dodgers need to steal at least one of the first two games in St. Louis because of superior starting pitching. While the Cardinal rotation runs much deeper, the Dodgers have the two best starting pitchers in this series in Jeff Weaver and Odalis Perez, and they must take advantage of this. The Dodgers have a good lefty-righty balance on offense, and they are the only team the Cardinals can play that's stronger defensively. Adrian Beltre needs to show that he truly is the MVP for Los Angeles to move on.
Why the Cardinals can win: St. Louis has incredible depth offensively, and rarely gives away outs when they're in the field. Their bullpen is strong top to bottom, and they need it to be managed properly to help support a very average starting staff. Matt Morris will need to prove that he can pitch on the road in this series for the Redbirds to win, but if their pitching doesn't blow up all of a sudden, they should have the offense to win.
Who Will Win: Dodgers in Five - When it all comes down to it, I just think that the front of the rotation starters the Dodgers have that the Cardinals lack will get it done. Of course, as I write this, the Cardinals already roughed up that top frontline starter for 6 runs in 2.2 innings.
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
Why the Astros can win: As strong as Atlanta's offense is, Houston is stronger, with the four Killer B's now (Bagwell, Beltran, Berkman, Biggio). They're riding a tremendous wave into the playoffs, winning their final sixteen at home and seven overall. To top matters off, the Astros have two legitimate threats for the Cy Young award (three, actually, by my line of thinking) in Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt. Their rotation depth could come back to haunt them in the playoffs, but it's doubtful it will here. If the Astros take a lead to the ninth, the game might as well be over.
Why the Braves can win: They owned the Astros this season, taking nine out of ten games! For the second season in a row, they've surprised us all through the regular season by once again dominating the NL East, so it'd be a mistake to underestimate what Bobby Cox and Co. have in store for Houston in the playoffs. They'll rely heavily on Chipper and Andruw Jones to mash, along with a retread playoff rotation of Jaret Wright, Russ Ortiz, and John Thomson. Do they have enough left in the tank to get a few games to Smoltzie?
Who Will Win: Astros in Three - I took them all the way in the preseason, and, despite the gaudy regular season series deficit, I'll stick by them. The Astros will have little trouble in this series, and should win each of the first two in Atlanta behind the two most dominant pitchers that the NL has in the playoffs. Brandon Backe may have trouble shutting the door in Game 3, and they'll likely have to head back to Atlanta for a decisive Game 5 if he doesn't, but I think he will.
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Why the Twins can win: Johan Santana, Johan Santana, and defense. Santana has emerged to prove that he's the best pitcher in the majors this season, and he'll go twice if the series goes the distance.
Why the Yankees can win: $190 million, Derek Jeter, and Mariano Rivera. They certainly have the best lineup money can buy, and that has made up for a lot of the rotation failures that they've had this season. They've had the Twins number for the past three years, and they have to feel confident they can get the job done no matter who is on the field. Jeter and Rivera are arguably the two most dominant clutch performers at their respective position in the history of the game. Jeter has the most playoff hits ever, and Rivera the most postseason saves ever... and one gaudy postseason ERA!
Who will win: Minnesota in Five It's just a hunch, but Brad Radke will throw the game of his life in Game Two at the Stadium, and Santana will loom large. Food for thought on the Yanks and the postseason: Since the Yankees started their latest amazing dynasty, the last team to win the World Series without either being or beating the Yanks in the playoffs was the 1995 Atlanta Braves.
Update (column actually published a day later than I originally planned): Good news and bad news for the Yankees. The good news? Johan Santana didn't look nearly as dominant as he has since early June on Tuesday. The bad news? The Yankees were still unable to score against him, and lost 2-0.
Boston Red Sox vs. Anaheim Angels
Why Boston can win: Curt Schilling + Pedro Martinez + The best offense in baseball = Heavy favorites. The Sox improved drastically defensively at the deadline, and have been on fire ever since. It'd be less than shocking to see them sweep through this series as they did to the entire AL West about a month ago when they played the A's, Angels, and Rangers.... all of whom were on a roll. Their record against the division then? 9-1, including a three-game sweep of the Halos at Fenway.
Why Anaheim can win: Vladimir Guerrero and the best 1-2 punch in baseball to close games out. They'll slap hit their way around a bit to maximize the opportunities for Vlad, Garrett Anderson, and Troy Glaus, and their rotation is a little stronger than it looked in the regular season. K-Rod proved just how dangerous he can be near the back of the bullpen a few years ago, and they do have history on their side.... not just their own history (won the Series two years ago), but the Sox' history of failure, as well.
Who will win: Boston in four - Pedro may not be Pedro anymore (just ask my fantasy teams!), but the Sox rotation is still better top to bottom, and I just don't think that Anaheim's starters can hang with them. Anaheim will probably steal either Game 2 or Game 3, but I simply can't see them taking three games from the Sox.
The Rest
As the remainder of the playoff pairings aren't set, and are simply hypothetical, we won't break them down as we did with the Division Series.
ALCS: Red Sox over Twins in 5 - Twins won't be able to reset and start Santana early in the series, and that's their only hope.
NLCS: Astros over Dodgers in 6 - Better offense, better pitching, and the bullpen's almost as good.
World Series: Astros over Red Sox in 7 - The Sox will be ever so close, until Mark Bellhorn muffs an easy grounder to second that gives the Rocket the lead in Game 7, as he shuts his old team out and hangs 'em up.
Postseason Awards
As I write this, I wonder if we might end up being lucky enough to see Curt Schilling and Johan Santana square off at some point of the ALCS! Anyway, we'll go with who will win it, who I think should win it, and who I predicted in the preseason in "The Hook."
AL Cy Young
Who will win it: Johan Santana
Who should win it: Johan Santana
Who I predicted: Javier Vazquez
OK, OK. Javier Vazquez? What was I thinking? In all seriousness, I almost flipped a coin between him and Santana in the preseason, but I just had a hunch that he'd get better run support, and we all know that the voters overhype the hell out of wins for this award.
Speaking of wins, I keep hearing more and more people say that Curt Schilling deserves the Cy Young award because he had more wins than Santana. Are you kidding me? Schilling was 21-6, while Santana went 20-6, and arguably would have won his last start of the year if Ron Gardenhire hadn't wanted to give him some rest (and not give the Yanks too long a look at him), as he left with a 3-1 lead. So, if one win truly masks the 0.65 differential in ERA, 0.14 differential in baserunners allowed per inning, 62 strikeouts, and the sheer fact that Santana had one less consecutive quality start after June 3 than Schilling did all season, be my guest and cast your vote for Schilling. Santana should win this award.... unanimously!
NL Cy Young
Who will win it: Roger Clemens
Who should win it: Randy Johnson/Brad Lidge
Who I predicted: Roy Oswalt
In all fairness, I think we did quite a bit better with our preseason pick here... considering I'm supposed to know pitching. Roy Oswalt led the National League with 20 wins, and though he certainly won't win the award, he'll most likely finish in the top five. His teammate (Clemens) will likely win the award after going 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA, and would have been a shoo-in had he pitched and won on the final day of the season.
There is a large faction that's pushing for Randy Johnson, who went just 16-15, despite finishing second in the league to Jake Peavy (barely pitched enough innings to qualify for the title, but was phenomenal when healthy) with a 2.60 ERA. Am I part of it? If a starter has to win it, I think it should be Johnson, though I would cast my vote for Brad Lidge of the Astros if I had one. Johnson did all he could do on the lowly Diamondbacks, and likely would have won close to 25 games if he was on a team that could have given him any (and I do mean any!) support.
Johnson ranked 41st among 45 qualified starters in the NL with just 3.99 runs per game. Admittedly, Clemens' support was much worse than I'd thought it was (4.79 runs per game... 32nd in the NL). Would it be nearly the crime that giving Schilling the AL Cy Young would be if Clemens wins it? No, but Johnson outpitched him in every significant category except for wins and losses.
As for Lidge? What can you say about his performance this season? Prior to taking over the closer's role when Octavio Dotel was shipped out of town, Lidge had 17 holds in 19 chances, and he was 29 of 31 in save opportunities after taking over in the ninth... winning both games that he blew saves in. Lidge was second among all closers in ERA, broke the NL record for strikeouts by a reliever, and totally stabilized what was a glaring weakness for his team. It could easily be argued that Lidge was the catalyst that helped them turn the corner and go from an under .500 team at the break to the National League Wildcard. What's shocking to me isn't that he won't win the award, but that absolutely nobody wants to mention him just a year after Eric Gagne won it.
AL MVP
Who will win it: Gary Sheffield
Who should win it: Vladimir Guerrero
Who I predicted: Vladimir Guerrero
I know, I know! MVP doesn't always mean just their performance on the field, and that's why Sheffield is getting so much recognition right about now. Admittedly, Sheff was a terrific player this season, and he was the primary factor in leading the Yankees to a gigantic offensive season (broke the team record for homers, and were second in the majors in runs scored), but I really have to say that he didn't do enough statistically to be better than either Guerrero or Manny Ramirez.
In comparison with Sheffield, Guerrero scored seven more runs, hit thre more home runs, drove in five more runs, stole ten more bases, and hit 47 points higher. He outslugged Sheffield by 54 points, but did fall 2 points short of Sheffield's OBP.
Oh, by the way, while a lot of the Sheffield supporters want to talk about how many problems the Yankees have had with their rotation and the loss of Jason Giambi, didn't Garrett Anderson miss 43 games due to injury? Didn't Troy Glaus miss about four months? Aside from Vladdy, aren't those the Angels' two best offensive players??? Wasn't Bartolo Colon absolutely lost heading into the All-Star Break? The Angels had their problems, too. They just didn't have $190 million to mask them, but Vladdy did enough to pull it off.
If Sheffield had an off night, that just meant that Alex Rodriguez or Derek Jeter orJorge Posada OR Bernie Williams would pick up the slack.
NL MVP
Who will win it: Barry Lamar Bonds
Who should win it: Adrian Beltre
Who I predicted: Shawn Green
Well... I predicted someone on the same team of the guy who I think deserves the award, but I guessed wrong on Green rebounding to be the superstar that he was just a couple of years ago.
What can you say about Barry? He may have had the best statistical season ever... for the second season in a row! Bonds is a monster when it comes to getting on base, and he's absolutely scary when teams are actually stupid enough to pitch to him. He'll win the award because he's Barry, and because he had another monster year that makes everyone else's numbers pale in comparison. In fairness, this team probably plays about 50 meaningless games without him and played just one with him, and I am not a Bonds hater.
That said, Barry didn't lead his Giants to the promised land this season, and Adrian Beltre did. It's not simply about Beltre, though, but about his lack of much of a supporting cast down in Los Angeles. Beltre led the league in homers, hit a robust .334 (3rd in NL), and drove in 121 runs (also 3rd in NL). If not for the presence of Bonds, this is a laydown MVP award for Beltre, but the mere fact that he carried an otherwise (well) below average offensive ballclub into the playoffs (and beat Bonds in the process) wins him the award in my book. Again, it won't be a travesty when I see that Bonds has won the award, but Beltre did just as much, if not more, for his team than Bonds did... and his team's in the playoffs.
AL Rookie of the Year
Who will win it: Bobby Crosby
Who should win it: Lew Ford
Who I predicted: Matt Riley
Don't ask me why I liked Riley so much in the preseason. He had a good strikeout rate, was once a highly touted prospect who was finally ready to make it, and he was guaranteed a start every fifth day on a team that was going to score a lot of runs. With all the hype surrounding Crosby, I thought he might flop, and went with an anti-establishment pick. Finishing a distant second this season will be Zack Greinke, who I may have considered if I'd thought the Royals were really going to rush him to the bigs. In third, if anyone even wants to remember that this guy is a rookie, will be the man who should win it.
Despite a poor batting average (.239), Crosby was fantastic this season, crushing 22 homers and adding some fine (and much-needed) defensive flair for the A's up the middle. Did he do enough to win the award? In many peoples' eyes, yes, and it's pretty clear that the writers will all but hand it to him on a silver platter. In fact, only he and Lew Ford got enough at bats to qualify for the batting average title.
How about Ford, though? Not expected to compete for a job, he was forced into action immediately when Torii Hunter was injured early in the year. Ford responded by batting .299 (.060 points higher than Crosby), hitting 15 homers (just 7 less than Crosby), driving in 72 runs (8 more than Crosby), scoring 89 runs (19 more than Crosby), and stealing 20 bags (13 more than Crosby). He did all this while filling in with tremendous centerfield defense early, as well. It's an absolute shame that the media is still so hyped on Crosby to even notice this kid.
NL Rookie of the Year
Who will win it: Khalil Greene
Who should win it: Jason Bay
Who I predicted: Khalil Greene
Both players turned in phenomenal seasons, and both missed nearly a month due to injury (Bay to start the year, and Greene to finish the year). There simply aren't any other contenders for the award, so we'll get right down to it between these two.
Bay was solid defensively, and put up numbers that were definitely superior to Greene's across the board offensively in comparison with Greene. He had 11 more homers, 17 more RBI, and batted .009 higher than Greene did. Greene did outscore him by six runs and had seven more doubles, but also finished the season with 73 more at bats (Bay spent more time on the DL). The biggest factor in Greene's favor is one of the most difficult factors to try and make tangible. He was arguably the second best defensive SS in the National League behind soon-to-be gold glover Cesar Izturis, and better than last season's gold glover, Edgar Renteria. How much the voters factor defense into the equation will be what determines this race, and I have a feeling that they'll count it pretty strongly. Bay's numbers (.282-26-82) on a team with very little offensive firepower warrant the award in my book, but Greene was better than advertised as well. It could go either way.
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Oct 6 at 1:57 AM
Fantasy Football 
Eligibility requirements for the ROY award were set forth in 1971 and a rookie was formally defined as a player with less than one-hundred thirty at-bats, a pitcher with less than fifty innings pitched, or anyone with less than forty-five days on any Major League roster.
Ford played in 34 games and had 74 at-bats last season; therefore he's still eligible for the ROY award this season.