Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Wild West Showdown

As a reminder to all of our readers who may be interested, we have set up a group with Yahoo's Pro Football Pick'em which will determine who picks our college game of the week with a weekly winner and we'll have a special prize at the end of the season for the overall winner.

Link to Yahoo Pro Pick'em

When you get there, all you have to do is take your Yahoo ID and sign up for free by joining private group #28217 with a password of "FIC" (please note that it's cap sensitive).

Congratulations to FIC's very own Chris Wang, who pulled out a nail-biter last week.

Despite being a pretty proud franchise that made three decent playoff runs in the 1980's, the Seattle Seahawks won all of two AFC West championships in twenty-five seasons prior to the NFL re-alignment that shipped them to the NFC. Of course, that makes it less than shocking that they have yet to win the NFC West in their first three seasons since re-alignment, but it looks like that cold Seattle rain that the Emerald City is so used to may be ready to change.

The Seahawks entered the season as the favorite not just to win the NFC West, but among the favorites to represent the NFC in Jacksonville on Super Bowl Sunday. In order to do so, they'll have to take down the defending champion St. Louis Rams, who have dominated the division since re-alignment (and for the past couple of seasons before re-alignment). The two split last season, each winning at home, though both were terrific games that could have gone either way.

Mike Martz blew it in Seattle last season, going to the air (as always) with a six-point lead late in the fourth quarter. After a Seahawks' interception, they marched down the field for a 24-23 win. Unlike Martz, Mike Holmgren's squad saw a questionable call kill them in St. Louis. Down 27-22 in the closing minute, Matt Hasselbeck lobbed a perfect spiral to a wide-open Bobby Engram in the end zone. Engram, however, fell over an official who was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and barely got his fingertips on the ball. St. Louis would come up with the stop a couple of plays later and hold on for the victory.

St. Louis has gotten out of the gate a bit sluggishly, losing two of their first four games, beating only Arizona (1-3) and San Francisco (0-4), and they must do something against the 'Hawks on Sunday if they have any delusions that they're going to win their second straight division title. A Seattle (3-0) win here could give them a two and a half game lead on the Rams and all but put away the division just a quarter of a way into their season.

Game of the Week: St. Louis at Seattle

When St. Louis has the ball: Mike Martz continues to claim that he's going to be a kinder, gentler, smarter coach who just might use his weapons a little more often (see Marshall Faulk), but it has shown only sporadically so far this season.... and only, of course, in their victories. Faulk and understudy Steven Jackson exploded in Week 1 against Arizona and Week 4 against San Francisco, but each saw pretty limited action in losses to the Falcons and (most notably) the Saints. Everyone knows what the Rams are going to do 90% of the time, and they still try to claim to be the "Greatest Show on Turf" (believe me... I live in St. Louis, and their fans still call them that). Are they still that great, though?

Isaac Bruce has found the fountain of youth this season, and must feel like Kurt Warner is back under center. Marc Bulger was entirely too dependent upon Torry Holt in his first two seasons as the Rams QB, but has made much better use of his aging #2 receiver. In fact, the old Reverend Ike currently leads the league in receptions (32) and receiving yardage (448), and has had at least 100 receiving yards in each of the first four games. Holt's still not so bad either, though he looked kind of like a ghost against San Francisco last week, and you can be sure that Bulger will always be looking for him.

Expect Mike Martz to forget about Marshall Faulk (as he so often does) in this one, as the Rams will have to put quite a few points on the board if they hope to stick with the Seahawks. St. Louis ran just 15 times in their Week Two loss to New Orleans, and it would be less than surprising (despite all the heat Martz took running only 15 times against a team that's allowed a 100-yard rusher in their other three games) to see them use a similar strategy in order to keep up with the potentially explosive 'Hawks. Seattle upgraded their secondary and their pass rush in the offseason, though, so the Rams won't see the same bunch they were able to hang with twice last year.

When the Seahawks have the ball: Shaun Alexander had one of those Rob Mackowiak type of days when the Seahawks hosted the Rams last season. He was not expected to be available as he was on hand for the birth of his daughter, Heaven, but arrived in time for the second half and ran for about sixty yards and a score in Seattle's comeback. He owned St. Louis last season, averaging 92 yards in the two contests (again, let's keep in mind he missed a half in the first game), and will be a huge key to Seattle's offense. It's not like this is much of a surprise, though, as Alexander has already found the end zone six times this season.

Matt Hasselbeck emerged as one of the top QBs in the league last season, and posted two solid games against the Rams, combining for 502 yards and three touchdowns against two picks. He started the year sluggishly, but seemed to finally have the passing game clicking against San Francisco before the bye week, throwing for two touchdowns and 254 yards. Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson always give him a couple of explosive targets, though they do still come down with a case of the drops every now and then.

The balance in Seattle's offense could spell death for a St. Louis defense that looks lost since Larry Marmie replaced the departed Lovie Smith in the offseason. Even if the Rams' offense clicks, in order for St. Louis to win this game, they're going to have to create some turnovers.

Special Teams: The Rams never seem to have a reliable return man, and this year is no different. Shaun McDonald has done nothing returning punts (although St. Louis can hope he doesn't muff a punt inside the ten as Arlen Harris did last year when the two teams met), and they've used three different return men on kickoffs... all right around 20.0 per return. The Seahawks continue to stick with the reliable return games of Bobby Engram (punts) and Maurice Morris (kickoffs). Neither is stellar, but neither makes a lot of mistakes either. Jeff Wilkins is certainly the more experienced and decorated place kicker in this game, though Josh Brown has been solid over his brief career, and is the better distance kicker.

Coaching/Intangibles: As much as people like to point out that Mike Martz once led the Rams to the Super Bowl as a head coach and turned around the club when he was their offensive coordinator, he's extremely flighty and erratic, and often can't coach his way out of a paper bag. Mike Holmgren struggled in his first few years in Seattle, but seems to have turned the team around now that he's given up his GM duties to focus solely on coaching his team. There's a definite edge for Seattle in the coaching, and the fact that they went 8-0 at home last season and are hungry for their first NFC West title gives them a powerful edge as well.

The Verdict: This may be the most important game of the week, but it will be a laugher. The Rams have looked lost under the so-called guidance of Martz so far this season. Combine that with the fact that they're playing a Seahawk squad that will be the first club the Rams play that's more talented than they are, and toss in Seattle's overwhelming homefield advantage, and the 'Hawks will make a statement by blowing the Rams out. 'Hawks 30, Lambs 13

Lock of the Week: New York Jets over Buffalo

Remember. The Jets will be 5-0 heading into New England two weeks from now. The Bills fought the good fight last week against New England, but will have to head down to New Jersey to take on a Jets squad that's been able to move the ball with incredible balance. Chad Pennington's looked terrific, and Curtis Martin has been even better. Buffalo's stout run defense should pose some problems for the Jets, but Pennington will be able to spread the ball around and find some holes in the coverage to beat them all day long, and the Bills would have trouble scoring on a peewee team right now. J-E-T-S 24, Bills 9

Upset Special: Miami over New England

There is no real reason to pick this game, aside from the fact that the NFL continues to be a mystery from week to week for what seems like the umpteenth season in a row. In a shcoking development that equals Miami's feat of being the only team to knock off the 1985 Bears (though the Dolphins were actually pretty darned good that year), Miami will find a way to beat the unbeatable Patriots and keep that 1972 squad in the record book. What's worse, this will be the only game Miami wins all year. Mammals 17, Patriots 13

And now, as we prepare for that always exciting Red Sox-Yankees ALCS, let's move on to the rest...

Tampa Bay at New Orleans - Just when you thought the Saints were ready to turn around their fortunes of the past few years, they go and get blown out by the Cardinals? Tampa will start Chris Simms, and they claim they're not giving up on the season by doing that, but we know better. Whodat! 23, Bucs 17

Cleveland at Pittsburgh - The Steelers may be the worst 3-1 team in the last ten years, but they'll continue to pound on a soft early-season schedule when they host the Brownies on Sunday. Steelers 20, Browns 17

Detroit at Atlanta - The Lions finally broke that awful road-losing streak to start the year, but their second test will be a lot more difficult. If Mike Vick ever really figures out this West Coast offense, the Falcons could be scary. Until he does, the defense will have to continue to carry them. Falcons 27, Lions 17

New York Giants at Dallas - Are Warner and the Giants for real? I still don't buy it, but I also don't think Tuna's going to lead his squad into the playoffs again. We'll take the strong Dallas D at home, but this one's all based on a coin toss. Cowgirls 17, Giants 14

Minnesota at Houston - With the Packers flailing, the Vikings have a big shot to try and put away the North early enough so that they can't collapse on the final play of the season. As recent history tells us, though, they'll let the rest of the division hang around. With no Michael Bennett and no Onterrio Smith, Daunte Culpepper's going to have to carry this team, but Houston's more balanced attack is capable of hanging with them. Texans 34, Vikings 31

Oakland at Indianapolis - The Raiders bring in a receiving duo that has arguably been the best in the league so far, and neither of them is named Rice or Brown. It won't matter, though, as they simply don't have enough weapons to hang with the Colts. Even if Charles Woodson can shut Marvin Harrison down, Peyton will find Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely open plenty of times, and Edge should have a field day on the turf. Colts 38, Raiders 27

Jacksonville at San Diego - Drew Brees has shown a lot of improvement over last season's numbers so far, but he'll have to be unbelievable for the Bolts to beat the Jags. Jacksonville may finally show off their offense this week, as the Chargers' leaky pass defense is allowing over 250 yards a game. Jags 23, Chargers 13

Arizona at San Francisco - If a tree falls in the woods.... Cardinals 20, Niners 10

Carolina at Denver - The good news for the Panthers? Stephen Davis may return this week. The bad news? It's not going to matter. The Broncos have been solid against the run, great against the pass, and no matter how good Carolina's defense plays, the Panthers won't be able to score much. Broncos 17, Panthers 7

Baltimore at Washington - Since winning his first game of his comeback, Joe Gibbs hasn't looked like much of a savior. The Redskins' long season will continue, but hey... at least Washington will cut into some of Baltimore's market come baseball season. Ravens 23, Redskins 13

Tennessee at Green Bay - Never in my life did I think I'd look at the prospects of Brett Favre falling to 0-3 at home, but it's going to happen. Air McNair will return this week in a game that should mean the Titans' season, and he'll win the battle of the two toughest QBs in the game. Titans 24, Packers 20

The Numbers
On the Year: 33-27 (7-7)
Game of the Week: 1-3 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 3-1 (1-0)
Upset Special: 3-1 (1-0)
College Game of the Week: 2-1 (1-0)

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