Super Bowl Preview?
October 13, 2004
Congratulations to this week's winner in our Pro Pick'em group, my very own brother, John Meyerriecks. With some terrific potential games this week, John's picked a sleeper as our College Game of the Week, featuring his alma mater, the Missouri Tigers. Mizzou heads to Texas to take on the Longhorns in a battle of two of the favorites of the Big XII.
You all know I live and die with the Seahawks, so why should I hide it. As the 'Hawks absolutely fell apart and watched their seventeen-point lead evaporate against the Rams last week, all I could do was cringe. Did it surprise me that much? Yes, and no. Ever since Mike Holmgren took over the Seahawks, they've had a few of these failures to put away big games.
In 1999, in what figured at the time to possibly be Dan Marino's final professional start, the AFC West champion Seahawks jumped out to a 17-6 lead on Miami midway through the third quarter. Then they turned Vanilla on offense, consistently returning to a run, run, pass format on every series and setting up then-QB Jon Kitna for failure on constant third and longs. The fact that Ricky Watters didn't execute in the second half of that game hurt the 'Hawks as well, but Holmgren's refusal to mix his play-calling gave Miami easy guesses as to what the Seahawks would do every time they had the ball. Marino led a terrific comeback, as the Dolphins moved on with a 24-17 win, only to lose 72-0 the following week.
Just last season, the Seahawks blew a 41-24 lead to the offensively challenged Baltimore Ravens, allowing one of just two 300-yard passing games that the Ravens would have all season long. Albeit, it can be argued that the officials cost the Seahawks the game by essentially giving Baltimore another timeout in the final minutes when they threw a flag, determined there was no foul, and never re-started the clock. It should never have gotten to that point, though.
The point is, Seahawk history since Holmgren took over this team has been littered with these games. In 2000, Seatlle blew a 17-7 lead against the Chiefs in the final seventeen minutes. In 2001, Seattle again lost a ten-point lead heading into the fourth quarter against the Dolphins. In short, Mike Holmgren has had about one of these losses a season at the very least, and 'Hawks fans can hope that this will be the only one this year, as they're supposed to contend for the NFC Championship.
Can they come back from this game, though? Was it too demoralizing to see an absolute strangle-hold on the division with just ten minutes to play just disintegrate right in front of their eyes? The 'Hawks still have arguably the most balanced offense in the NFC, and their defense has been absolutely stellar with the exception of ten minutes so far this season. Realistically, all they have to do is find a way to recover from that collapse last week and turn it into a positive. The task of recovering immediately will be daunting, though, because they're not playing against the 49ers or Dolphins this week. They're going into Foxboro to face the defending Super Bowl Champs.
Nobody, and I do mean nobody, has beaten the Patriots outside of the preseason in almost thirteen months. New England pushed their winning streak to a record nineteen with their 24-10 victory over the hapless Dolphins last week. They're confident, but always smart enough to focus on the task at hand, and the second or third sentence that came out of every post-game interviewee's mouth after last week's game was, "We've gotta get ready for Seattle next week." We know the Pats will be ready, and it should make for an amazing game if the Seahawks don't come out of last week's contest hungover from the loss.
Game of the Week: Seattle at New England
When Seattle has the ball: The Seahawks may have the most balanced offense in the league right now. Shaun Alexander is a threat to take one to the house every time he touches the ball, as evidenced by his NFL-leading seven touchdowns through four games. Alexander is definitely the key to this offense, as he's not only a threat in the running game (averaging 95 yards per game), but is also a strong receiver out of the backfield.... and arguably has surer hands than any of the Seahawk receivers, who dropped seven balls against the Rams last week.
Matt Hasselbeck continues to lead a fiery passing game that averaged over 250 yards a game through the air last season, and is averaging 220 after last week's contest despite a sluggish start to the year. Last week's 20/35 performance for two touchdowns without an interception was marred by some ugly drops out of Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson, and once again made Seattle fans long for another receiver like Steve Largent for Hasselbeck to get the ball to. Robinson and Jackson do a tremendous job getting open, and continue to be two of the better receivers in the league once they have the ball. Now, if they could only find some stick'em....
The 'Hawks offensive line, led by perrenial All-Pro Tackle Walter Jones and Left Guard Steve Hutchinson, should be able to provide Hasselbeck with plenty of time to throw, even if they are facing the Pats. New England has garnered an average of just over three sacks a game, while Seattle has allowed less than two per game, and has been excellent in pass protection. If they can provide Hasselbeck with the time to throw, he should be able to make his reads and find ways to beat the Patriots secondary.... then it will be on Robinson, Jackson, and Bobby Engram to actually catch the ball every once in a while.
When the Patriots have the ball: This game should present some problems for New England. Ray Rhodes' blitz-happy scheme should keep the Patriots guessing all day offensively, and though they may not get a ton of sacks (New England has allowed just one per game), they'll take away some of the time that Brady has in the pocket which has helped him to excel over the past three seasons. Corey Dillon came up big with a few runs last week against Miami, though he did injure his ankle late in the game. He's expected to be healthy and ready to go on Sunday, and he'll have to be at his best to give New England some balance offensively.
Brady will once again be without his top two wideouts, as Troy Brown and Deion Branch aren't expected to play. Even Bethel Johnson was inactive last week against Miami, and the Pats haven't clued anyone in as to what's going on with him. David Givens, David Patten, and Kevin Kasper will line up for them on the outside against a duo of improving shutdown corners (Ken Lucas, Marcus Trufant), and a third more established shutdown guy when Seattle's in the nickle (Bobby Taylor). The quick, hungry Seattle secondary could pose quite a few problems for a depleted New England WR core, and Brady will have to rely largely on Daniel Graham and Ben Watson in order to succeed.
Is Brady capable of winning this game without much of a contribution from his wideouts? We've seen him do it in the past, but he usually needs to keep the score down in the teens to pull it off. After falling apart last week, Seattle will go for the throat, and I'd expect the team that wins this game to have to score in the high-twenties at the very least.
Special Teams: We sure missed the boat last week, as Shaun McDonald was crucial to St. Louis not only with his game-winning touchdown catch, but on punt returns as well. Seattle seemed to have a lot of trouble with coverage last week, and they'll need to rectify that against a team that's relied on strong special teams play throughout the past three seasons. Josh Brown continues to be solid, but there's nobody I'd rather have lining up for a last-second field goal than Adam Vinatieri.
Coaching/Intangibles: Bill Belichik is head and shoulders above any other coach in the NFL right now (possibly ever?), and it will have to show this week for the Patriots to win number 20 in a row. Mike Holmgren certainly has the pedigree on his side, and has won a couple of Super Bowl titles of his own, but there is that tendency for the late-game collapse that he's shown in Seattle over his tenure. The Pats will be hungry to keep on rolling, and the homefield advantage that they have in Foxboro is as difficult to overcome as any stadium in the league. Seattle will be out to prove that last week was a fluke, and hungry to show that they're ready to live up to their preseason expectations and knock off one of the big boys.
The Verdict: Up and down the roster, I look at this game on paper and say the Seahawks are the more talented team, but that hasn't meant much during New England's run over the past few years. What I see here, though, is a team that can go in and roll over like dogs or come out and make a statement. The Seahawks will do one of two things on Sunday.... they'll go out and shock the league by knocking off the Patriots in Foxboro or they'll get absolutely blown out because of last week's demoralizing loss. I'll take the former, as Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, and a defense that doesn't quit will lead Seattle to victory. Seahawks 27, Patriots 23
Lock of the Week: New York Jets over San Francisco
True, the Jets were our lock last week as well, but this is just to hammer down that point we made in the preseason one final time. The Jets will be 5-0 heading into New England, and anyone who thinks that the absolutely god-awful Niners can stop that from happenning is insane. New York has taken full advantage of a soft early-season schedule up till now, and their defense is way too strong to allow a repeat of last week's 31 point performance by San Francisco. They'll take advantage of a depleted linebacking core that's missing All-Pro Julian Peterson, and romp the Niners in this one. J-E-T-S 24, Niners 10
Upset Special: Houston over Tennesee
Is Tennessee really back after last week's win at Lambeau? It may look like they are, but it sure looked like Green Bay was on their way to a terrific follow-up to last year's division title after thrashing Carolina in Week One. Steve McNair is still one of the top five QBs in the league, and Chris Brown has started to look like the second coming of Earl Campbell for the once-proud Oiler franchise, but they'll have to win another shootout if they hope to get back to .500. The smart money may say that the Titans win this one in a romp, but nothing about our predictions so far this season has been that brilliant. Houston continues to stay right in every game they play, and they'll pull the upset this week against their city's former occupants. Texans 31, Titans 27
And now, as we watch Manny Ramirez try to play defense in left field, we'll move on to the rest....
San Diego at Atlanta - Mike Vick and the Falcons continue to look helpless running the West-Coast offense, though it didn't bite them until last week. Ladainian Tomlinson will be out to show that the Chargers made the right move trading away the rights to Vick (well... at least the #1 pick that year), and should run all over a Falcon defense that was dominated by Detroit last week. Drew Brees will be the key, though. If he can continue to show he's matured, San Diego is instantly a contender in the AFC West. Chargers 27, Falcons 24
Miami at Buffalo - (to complete what we started last week with the Cardinals/Niners game) ... and nobody hears it... Bills 3, Dolphins 2
Carolina at Philadelphia - This rematch of last year's NFC title game will be soured by the absence of Deshaun Foster and Steve Smith and Stephen Davis' ineffectiveness coming off of surgery. The Eagles have improved against the run a bit from last year, and they've run more effectively themselves. This should be a blowout. Eagles 30, Panthers 10
Washington at Chicago - ... did it make a sound? Redskins 17, Bears 9
Kansas City at Jacksonville - The two biggest early-season surprises will go head to head this week. Jacksonville got out of the gate real hot, but they've failed the litmus test the past two weeks against Indianapolis and San Diego. The Chiefs were just awful early on, and will try to use their Monday night victory two weeks ago as a springboard. They can score on anybody, and the Jags won't be able to keep up. Chiefs 34, Jaguars 23
Cincinnati at Cleveland - Another interesting matchup. Cincy has been disappointing since the preseason, while the Browns have been disappointing since a surprising Week One thrashing of the Ravens. Coming off their bye week, expect the Bungles to turn it around a bit this week. Bungles 27, Browns 21
Green Bay at Detroit - Are the Lions for real? After finally finding something resembling a running game last week against the Falcons, expect Artose Pinner to have his best day as a professional against a Packers' defense that's 30th in the league against the run. Come to think of it, Joey Harrington should have a decent day as well... especially if Roy Williams is ready to go. Lions 27, Packers 17
Pittsburgh at Dallas - Ben Roethlisberger has done a terrific job restoring the roar to the Steelers' aerial attack, but he'll face a solid pass defense in Dallas this week. What could pose a problem for the Cowboys is the fact that they're struggling to stop the run. Vinny will air it out another 40 times this week, but it won't be enough to keep the Steelers from moving to a stunning 5-1 record. Roethlisbergers 23, Cowgirls 17
Denver at Oakland - After getting lit up by Peyton Manning last week, the Raiders will have to try and air it out against a team that doesn't put nearly as many points on the board. The problem? With Champ Bailey and John Lynch floating around in the secondary, the Broncs are tough to beat through the air. Plummer will do enough to get the job done, and the Raiders can kiss what looked like a surprisingly promising year goodbye. Broncos 26, Raiders 17
Minnesota at New Orleans - After beating the Rams to move to 2-1, New Orleans looked like they might finally challenge again in the NFC South. Two weeks and two demoralizing losses to the Cardinals and Bucs later, they have to bring their A-game with them on Sunday night. Unfortunately, Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper won't accomodate them, and their suspect defense will once again be torn apart. Vikings 37, Saints 27
Tampa Bay at St. Louis - Never have I been more inspired to vomit than I was when I saw Mike Martz doing that stupid little happy dance last Sunday. The Lambs were handed last week's victory on a silver platter, and they'll have to take advantage of the fact that they're playing a terrible Buccaneer squad on Monday night at home. Knowing Martz's tendencies, he could blow this game, but I have a feeling they'll blow Tampa away. Expect Madden and Michaels to have to try and save this one with some Dennis Miller-like banter. Lambs 30, Bucs 10
College Game of the Week: Missouri at Texas
What? No FSU-UVA? No Purdue-Wisconsin? Deal with it. The Missouri Tigers were in the Top 25 to start the year, and were considered the co-favorites (along with Kansas St.) to win the Big XII North in the preseason. Many thought that the Tigers' stunning loss to Troy would leave them reeling, but they've come back strong in their past two games, beating a tough Colorado squad 17-9 and spanking Baylor 30-10 on the road last week. Their defense has been phenomenal so far this season, particularly against the run, where they rank 18th in the nation and are allowing just 98 yards per game.
Texas has to avoid any type of letdown that they could have after a gritty 12-0 loss to Oklahoma. Two years ago, after they suffered their seemingly annual loss to Oklahoma, the Longhorns had to face another difficult opponent in K-St., and they managed to take them on the road 17-14. Apart from that, they usually end up having an opportunity to take their aggression on the Iowa State's, Baylor's, and Rice's of the world after falling to the Sooners. Missouri will not roll over and die like Texas' typical post-Sooner opponents.
Brad Smith leads the Mizzou attack on all fronts, and the Tigers live and die based on whether or not he plays well. Smith burst onto the scene two years ago, when he became just the second player (Clemson's Woody Dantzler was the other for anyone who's interested) to ever pass for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a season. What's more, he did it as a freshman.
Last year, Smith stepped out of the pocket a bit more than he did in 2002, with his top receiver (Justin Gage) gone to the NFL. After passing for 2,333 yards as a freshman, Smith relied more on a possession passing game that limited him to just 1,977 yards, and he missed repeating his amazing freshman feat by those 23 passing yards. He did improve his completion percentage from 53% to 60%, and he accumulated over 1,400 yards on the ground, but Mizzou's lack of a deep threat exposed them a couple of times last season.
In his third year as a starter, Smith has thrown just sixteen career interceptions, and that may be the key to this ballgame for Missouri. Smith is 2-9 in his career when he turns the ball over and 16-3 when he doesn't get picked off. In Mizzou's earlier loss to Troy, Smith threw two interceptions and never really got going with the running game.
Smith will have to be at his best to dissect a Texas pass defense that limited Heisman winner Jason White to 113 yards passing and picked him off twice. He'll need Damien Nash to give the Tigers a more traditional look to their rushing attack, and he'll need to be accurate early so that the Longhorns have to focus more on the receivers and Smith is able to make some plays on the ground.
Coming off a 12-0 loss to Oklahoma in which they accounted for just over 200 yards of total offense, you would expect the Longhorns to be seeing red all day in this one offensively. The problem, though, is that Missouri won't help them in this regard. Texas' offense goes through RB Cedric Benson, who has rushed for more yards than all three of the QBs Texas has used have thrown for combined. Missouri has been incredibly stout against the run so far this season, and has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher so far on the year. Sophomore Vince Young will have to show that he can carry this team if he has to after going just 8/23 for 86 yards against the Sooners last week.
Benson has been eerily consistent so far this season, rushing for between 180 and 190 yards in each of the Longhorns' first four games. He still put up a gritty 4 yards a carry against Oklahoma last week, but failed to hit the century mark for the first time in his last ten games. Benson has faced Mizzou just once in his career, in his freshman season in 2001, and pummeled the Tigers for 157 yards on 31 carries back then, but this is a far different team from that 2001 squad.
Towards the end of the last century (realize this isn't that far in the past), Mizzou hadn't cracked the Top 25 in nearly twenty years. They hadn't beaten a Top 25 team in about that long either. Then Gary Pinkel came over from Toledo and took over the program in 2001. Since then, Mizzou has been tough to beat, no matter who they're playing. They suffered tight losses to three Top 25 teams in his first campaign at Mizzou, and were absolutely gutted by the Longhorns, but the defense has improved tenfold. Smith has given the program a bona fide star who has helped with recruiting and helped build confidence for the players on the field.
For Mizzou were to pull this one off, Smith may have to shake the notion that just about every Heisman voter got about him after the Tigers' loss to Troy and re-establish himself as a legitimate candidate for the award. After the Troy game, it may be hard for some people to believe he can do it, but I've been watching this guy for much of the past three years, and believe me... he's capable.
Mizzou 24, Texas 20
I'd like to leave all of you a bit of an advanced warning about next week's column. I will be writing it up tonight, and will have someone edit it out to fix any stat checks, win-loss records for our Game of the Week (most likely, it'll be the Jets and Patriots next week), and sudden injuries that may affect some of our "Keys to the Games". I will be out of town, and unlikely to have any computer time in which to write the column next week, so there isn't likely to be a college game of the week.
The Numbers
On the Year: 39-35 (6-8)
Game of the Week: 1-4 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 4-1 (1-0)
Upset Special: 3-2 (0-1)
College Game of the Week: 2-1
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Oct 13 at 4:43 PM
Fantasy Football 
I only wish the Dolphins would make it to the Superbowl at SOME point in my lifetime.
Upset Special: Houston over Tennesee
That's my 'lock' of the week too.
good analysis on the games this weekend. keep up the good work.
Thanks for the compliments, and I hope to keep bringing everyone the same quality the rest of the year. Unfortunately, I'm out of town on business next week, so I'm a bit iffy on next week's column. It's done, but that's the problem. I won't have this week's games to influence me, and I won't be able to use any statistics from this week to back a point. I don't think I'll have any internet access on my trip, and I'll be gone for eleven days, so this'll be the best I can do. I have allowed for some editing, so hopefully it'll turn out alright.