Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Belichick Bowl

Note: Check back in week 9 when Jim returns from vacation.

As many of you will remember, Bill Parcells played a large part in turning around both the Patriots and Jets in the short time he spent coaching each team in the 1990's. The biggest dispute that the teams ever had, though, was over his former assistant.

Bill Belichick had agreed to coach the New York Jets after Bill Parcells retired from coaching, but instead decided to back out of the deal and head to Foxboro. While Jets fans certainly can't be disappointed with the results that Herman Edwards has given them over the past few seasons, Belichick has gone on to lead the Patriots to two out of the last three Super Bowls, as well as an amazing twenty game winning streak that they're currently riding. While the Jets received a couple of draft picks in the exchange, it's clear who got the better of the deal... or is it?

Edwards, whose teams have been known for starting slow, has his Jets screaming out of the gate this season, starting out 5-0 after their 22-14 victory over the 49ers last week, and this week they'll head up to Foxboro to take on Belichik in the Patriots in our....

Game of the Week: New York Jets at New England

When the Jets have the ball: While a lot of the pre-game hype may surround a coach who bolted from New York for New England, a certain former Patriot running back has led the Jets' charge all season long. Curtis Martin has re-found the magic so far this season, rushing for over 100 yards in four of the first five games and finding the end zone six times. After a down year in which he scored a career low two touchdowns last season, Martin has changed the dynamic of this team by giving them a back they can rely on in the red zone.

Seriously, though, the Jets misfortunes of their 2003 campaign were highlighted by QB Chad Pennington's preseason injury. They just never seemed to get on track with Vinny Testaverde under center after they watched their leader and 2002 team MVP miss the first ten games. This season has been different, however. Pennington's been dealing all season long, and has helped to carry this team just as much as Martin with his 97.8 passer rating through the first five games. Moreover, he has this team believing that it can win, and that confidence will have to play a huge part as they head into New England for a showdown with the defending champs.

When New England has the ball: Tom Brady makes reads at the line of scrimmage better than anyone, and he'll have to against Edwards' Cover-2 scheme. The Jets certainly haven't been unbeatable through the air, as evidenced by their Week One performance against Carson Palmer (18/27 248 with 2 TD), and Brady hasn't exactly had his way with the Jets in the past, though, and has thrown for an average of just 163 yards a game in six starts against the Jets in his career. He does have a 5:2 touchdown to interception ratio, so he's come through when it counts.

More important than Brady, however, may be who he has available to throw the ball to. Troy Brown has caught just one ball this season, and hasn't played since Week Two, while Deion Branch still looks to be about a week away from playing. Without this duo, he'll continue to have to rely on David Givens, David Patten, and Kevin Kasper as his primary wideouts. In short, he'll have to make terrific use of his Tight Ends once again.

Corey Dillon could run wild in this one. Though the Jets have gotten off to a fine start against the run, the only teams that they've played so far that have a consistent rushing attack are the Chargers and Niners (read, neither of those opponents had a whole lot of balance to keep the Jets honest). In reality, the Jets return pretty much the same personnel that ranked 28th against the run last season. Facing their first good balanced offensive opponent of the season, there has to be some concern that they won't be able to key enough on Dillon, and he'll break at least one twenty-yard run.

Special Teams: Doug Brien made a clutch field goal against the Bills to win the game two weeks ago, but would you really rather have the game on his foot than Adam Vinatieri? The Jets coverage and return games haven't been the same since they let Chad Morton head to Washington, and their kicking game hasn't been nearly as solid as it was when John Hall was there. The Jets will be scrappy, but this is a definite edge for the Pats.

Coaching/Intangibles: Herman Edwards has been terrific since taking over as the head coach of the Jets. He's led his team to two somewhat surprising postseasons in three years, and they're never ill-prepared for a football game. That said, he'll face the master here. Belichik is just impossible to outthink, and he'll continue to have his team focused on continuing their winning streak at home. It's always one game at a time for these Pats, and they won't allow for a letdown in a huge divisional matchup.... The Jets will have to come into this game with a lot of confidence that they can beat these guys. Since Belichik went to New England, the Jets are 4-4 against the Patriots, including two wins in Foxboro.

The Verdict: The soft early schedule ends here, and so does the Jets unbeaten start. They'll probably still be a playoff team, and could be one of the top contenders for the AFC title, but I've gotta like New England at home... Belichik will have this team ready to tear the Jets apart, and Corey Dillon, Tom Brady, and the offense will move the ball consistently on the Jets all day long. Patriots 27, J-E-T-S 13

Lock of the Week: Seattle over Arizona

Are the Cardinals a better team than they were last season? Yes, but this was one of just two games that Seattle won on the road in 2003... and they did so in dominant fashion (38-0). The Cardinals still have a long way and a few more years under Denny Green's rebuilding program before they can deal with the class of this division (Seattle and St. Louis), and the Seahawks will be ready to pounce after their second straight loss against the Patriots last week. Seahawks 34, Cardinals 13

Upset Special: San Diego at Carolina

Say what you will, but I'm starting to think the Bolts may be for real. More importantly, Carolina just isn't the team that they were last year. Injuries have been the main factor in causing that, but Steve Smith still won't be there, and Stephen Davis still won't be 100% this week either. Ladainian Tomlinson continues to look like the best player in the league, and Drew Brees has been calm, cool, and consistent so far this year, and they should avoid a letdown here. Now, if only the Giants weren't playing way over their head, the Chargers could be looking at building a dynasty with next year's draft... Bolts 23, Panthers 10

And now, as I soak up those Florida rays (well... more likely work my butt off down in FLA), let's move on to the rest....

St. Louis at Miami - We all know how much I hate the Lambs, but there's no way they can lose this ballgame. Surrounding their miracle comeback win against the Seahawks were a game against 1-5 San Francisco, 1-5 Tampa Bay, and 0-6 Miami. Don't worry, fellow Lamb-haters, they will be silenced in the near future. Miami couldn't move the ball against a nursing home's B-Team. Lambs 30, Flipper 9

Tennessee at Minnesota - The Vikes continue to look strong after beating New Orleans last week, and they may only get better if Michael Bennett returns. Steve McNair and the Titans have had quite a run in the past five seasons, but it's just not their year. Culpepper will own the Titans' very average pass rush, and Randy Moss will have a huge day. Vikings 34, Titans 27

Detroit at New York Giants - In the preseason, who would've thought this game would mean so much? The 3-2 Lions have people in Detroit talking playoffs for the first time in what seems like a decade (I know... it's only been four years, but seriously... they were 8-8 in 1999 and got in). The scary thing is that it's actually justified. The Giants? With a supposedly suspect offensive line, a QB tandem that consisted of a selfish rookie and a two-time former MVP who had lost ten straight starts, and a running back that's had fumbilitis for his entire career, they were more likely to contend for the #1 pick than the playoffs. Since I was way off on both teams (well... figured the Lions would be there in 2005!), I'm going to go crazy and say that the winner of this game makes the playoffs! Lions 24, Giants 23

Philadelphia at Cleveland - The Eagles continue to absoultely steamroll anything and everything in their path, and the Browns will be no different. The Browns may have labeled themselves giant-killers temporarily with their Week One win against Baltimore, but they simply don't have the weapons to match up on offense or defense in this one. Eagles 31, Browns 10

Chicago at Tampa Bay - Brian Griese will get another start and another shot to prove he can actually lead an NFL team. Lucky for him, they're playing the Bears, and shouldn't have to put much on the board to win. Bucs 13, Bears 10

Jacksonville at Indianapolis - From everybody's darlings to 3-3 in just three weeks? The Jags will get a rematch against the team that started their slide, but the results should be similar to the first meeting. Indy simply has too many weapons offensively for the Jags to do anything more than slow them down, and Jacksonville can't win many shootouts. Colts 27, Jaguars 13

Buffalo at Baltimore - It's time for the Ravens to learn a little about life without Jamal Lewis. Unfortunately for Buffalo, that other Lewis will be on the field for the Ravens. If you love to mock Bills fans because they're incapable of scoring, this will be your favorite game of the year. Ravens 17, Bills 0

Atlanta at Kansas City - Can you say rebound? The Chiefs are finally starting to roll, and now they'll have to face the QB who most loves to rollout. While Atlanta's defense looked amazing in the first few weeks of the season, they've started to taper off a bit, and that's not something you want to be doing when yoiu're headed to KC. Chiefs 31, Falcons 23

New Orleans at Oakland - Two promising starts came to a screeching halt, and now one of these teams will have to beat the other to hope to get back on that early roll. My money's on the youth, talent, and consistent rushing attack that the Saints can provide. The Raiders lack a legitimate feature back, which is something they'll have to focus on with the high draft pick they'll receive next season. Whodat! 24, Black Hole 20

Dallas at Green Bay - The Packers have been awful against the run at home this season, so they'll gladly welcome the Cowboys and their 22nd ranked rushing attack on Sunday night. Brett Favre continues to struggle a bit, but will finally find some Lambeau magic to work this time. Packers 20, Cowgirls 17

Denver at Cincinnati - Rookie Quarterback + Best Shutdown Corner in the League = Disaster. The Bungles will continue to retool for next season, and continue to regress in Marvin Lewis' second season at the helm. Champ will have a pick, and Rudi and Chad Johnson will both see John Lynch in their nightmares for the next month. Broncos 24, Bungles 17

There will be no college game of the week because I'm out of town without internet access. We'll be back next week with more exciting and up to the minute predictions!

The Numbers
On the Year: 48-40 (9-5)
Game of the Week: 1-5 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 5-1 (1-0)
Upset Special: 4-2 (1-0)

---