Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Keystone Cops

OK. I admit it. As I sat in my Florida hotel room last week and listened to every sports television and radio station hype up the Steelers matchup against the New England Patriots, I just wasn't buying it. Pittsburgh had fed off of a soft early schedule, and no matter how much momentum they had built, I just couldn't see them staying with the Patriots, much less beating them. A funny thing happened last Sunday, though. The Steelers lived up to the hype.

This week, the Steelers will take a shot at knocking off their second consecutive unbeaten foe when they take on in-state rival Philadelphia. Can Duce bust loose against his old mates' improved run defense? Can Ben Roethlisberger hook up with Hines and Plax enough to keep up with the high-powered Eagle offense? Most importantly, can the Steeler defense find a way to slow down the best QB/WR combo in football? Let's take a look at the battle for the Keystone State!

Game of the Week: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

When the Eagles have the ball: While the offense certainly goes through Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens, the most important aspect of the Eagle offense may be the return of Brian Westbrook. While Owens has finally given McNabb a consistent (not to mention huge and fast) target, Westbrook has given Philadelphia something that it's lacked for the last few seasons... a legitimate running game. Pittsburgh had the advantage of facing a depleted Patriots' rushing attack last week, as Corey Dillon was out of the lineup. This week, they'll have to deal with a much more balanced attack against the Eagles.

Terrell Owens has truly shown just how important it was for the Eagles to go after him last spring. He's currently third in the league in receiving yards, and has caught nine touchdown passes through just seven games. To give an indication of just how sorely the Eagles were missing a player like Owens, Westbrook led the team in touchdown catches last season, catching four out of the backfield. No Philly receiver scored more than twice. Similarly, Owens has already gained 697 yards through the air, while last season's receiving leader (Todd Pinkston) had just 575 yards receiving.

With teams forced to focus on T.O., the Eagles have had little trouble establishing some more balance. This has set Brian Westbrook up for a career year as well as given McNabb more time in the pocket to pick apart the defense. DeShea Townsend and Willie Williams will draw the unenviable task of trying to contain Owens, while the Steeler defense will have to hope that they can put some pressure on McNabb without leaving them unprotected in the secondary.

When the Steelers have the ball: Roethlisberger has shown poise beyond his years, but the key to the Steel City so far has to go to Duce Staley. Not surprisingly, the only game that the Steelers have lost so far this season was also the only game that Staley has run for less than 90 yards in. Staley has been a workhorse, averaging over 20 carries and 101 yards per game, and that's allowing Roethlisberger a little extra time in the pocket to find Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward. To top it all off, Staley has been extremely unselfish, yielding to Jerome Bettis at the goal-line and watching the big fella pound it home eight times already this season. While this may not be great for your fantasy team, it's worked out terrifically in the real world.

Roethlisberger's rookie run looks eerily similar to the rookie season of the QB that he beat last week. Like New England in 2001, not many were expecting the
Steelers to be contenders, and nobody expected Big Ben to be starting so early on in his career. All that he's done since getting the call after Tommy Maddox went down is lead his team to five straight victories, including last week's win over the seemingly unbeatable Patriots. Like Brady, Roethlisberger hasn't exactly put up earth-shattering numbers (just 188 yards per game and a 9:4 TD:INT ratio), but he's developed into a fine leader who makes quick reads and can avoid some pressure in the pocket. He'll need to show off all of that poise that everyone's been talking about this week, though, as Jevon Kearse and the Eagles' defensive line can bring it.

Special Teams: Though Westbrook has played his role in developing a running game, the Eagles are really missing him as a return man. The Eagles have a big edge in the kicking game with David Akers, but they're outmatched when the ball's changing hands, as Antawn Randle-El can break one any time he touches the ball.

Coaching/Intangibles: Andy Reid has led his team to three straight NFC title games, and has proven over time that he can get the job done. Bill Cowher has the longest tenure in the NFL, and always gets every ounce of effort his players can give. The Steelers are coming off of a huge win last week and will have the home crowd behind them, but other than that, there's no real edge here.

The Verdict: Remember that soft Philly run defense of the past few years that always suddenly gelled down at the goal line? It's going to show up again this week, but it won't be facing the same multi-talented back that's driven them to the brink anymore. The Bus will take no prisoners and run right through them. While the Steelers certainly won't stop T.O., they'll contain him just enough so that Pittsburgh will knock off the NFL's last unbeaten team and receive some champagne from the 1972 Dolphins. Steelers 27, Eagles 24

Lock of the Week: Baltimore over Cleveland

This was supposed to be easy, wasn't it? Everyone had penciled the Ravens in for their second straight AFC North title, though most felt that the Cincinnati Bengals would give them a run for their money. Just nine weeks into the season, though, the Ravens find themselves two games back of the Pittsburgh Steelers and hanging on for dear life. It all started in Week One when they went into Cleveland as heavy favorites and got their jock straps handed to them by a surprising Browns' squad. Nine weeks later, the Ravens simply have too much talent on both sides of the ball to let the same mistake happen again. With a healthy (and suspension-free) Jamal Lewis, they should run all over the Browns and rout them. Ravens 30, Browns 10

Upset Special: Arizona over Miami

I was considering one other game as our upset special, but the mere fact that the Dolphins are actually favored in a game this season was so ridiculous that we had to highlight it. The Cardinals have run a little hot and cold this week, but they seem to bring a strong effort with them every other week. Last week, they got smoked in Buffalo, so they should show up against the most pathetic excuse for an NFL team that we've seen in a decade. Cardinals 24, Dolphins 7

Washington at Detroit - What do Redskins fans have to look forward to? Four more years of Dubya (it's time to get rid of the two party system!)? Two more years of Joe Gibbs trying to coach like he's still in the 1980's? Well... at least the Nationals are coming to town. Lions 23, Redskins 17

New York Jets at Buffalo - The Jets reward for having to go to New England a couple of weeks ago: They get to face the two whipping boys of the AFC East next. J-E-T-S 31, Bills 13

Kansas City at Tampa Bay - Priest Holmes has run for an absolutely obnoxious seven touchdowns the last two weeks. He should add at least two more to his recent tally on Sunday, but that's just a conservative estimate. Chiefs 34, Bucs 20

Dallas at Cincinnati - Both second year coaches have watched their teams regress quite a bit from last year. This is right around when the Bungles started to go nuts in 2003, and the Cowboys may be just the right squad for them to turn it around against. Bungles 27, Cowgirls 21

Oakland at Carolina - The Panthers will finally get to face a squad that knows their dilemma. The last two Super Bowl losers will square off in a game that one of them just has to win, though it'd be a shock to see either of them even sniff the .500 mark this year. If Stephen Davis starts (and most indications are that he will), Carolina should finally notch their second win. Panthers 13, Raiders 10

Chicago at New York Giants - Pardon the (really) lame pun, but I have to pick the G-Men because of how awesome the Tiki Bar at the hotel I was staying at for a couple of weeks was. Giants 27, Bears 23

New Orleans at San Diego - Aaron Brooks should do some damage against a San Diego defense that can't put opponents away by itself, but L.T. and Co. should find moving the ball against the 'Aints to be a Brees. Chargers 34, Whodat! 28

Seattle at San Francisco - The 'Hawks finally snapped their three-game losing streak at the hands of the Panthers, and they should have a much easier time continuing a winning streak against the hapless Niners. On the positive side for San Fran, they may avoid getting blanked this time. Seahawks 27, Niners 10

New England at St. Louis - No Law? No Poole? No (probably) Dillon? No problem! The Pats will start another winning streak this week at the hands of the Lambs, as Mike Martz will pull what he always does... going with what his opponent least expects. In what will be the most bizarre play-calling of all time, Martz will run the ball 50 times and let Marc Bulger air it out just 12 times against a squad that will be without its top two corners. Pats 23, Lambs 17

Houston at Denver - Just when you thought the Broncos were rolling, they get smoked by Cincinnati and Atlanta in back to back weeks. This week, instead of facing an overrated foe, they'll take on the underrated Texans, and they'll probably respond by pounding Houston into submission. Broncos 31, Texans 28

Minnesota at Indianapolis - Whoever has the ball last wins! In what should be the best shootout of the year, the NFL's top two QBs will go at it against two absolutely pathetic defenses. The difference in the game, however, will be Edgerrin James. Colts 52, Vikings 49

The Numbers (Two Weeks ago in Parentheses)
On the Year: 58-44 (10-4)
Game of the Week: 2-5 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 5-2 (0-1)
Upset Special: 5-2 (1-0)

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