Meet Me in St. Louis
November 12, 2004
Just over a month ago, the NFC West looked so simple to figure out. The undefeated Seahawks were rolling yet again, leading the 3-2 St. Louis Rams by seventeen points in the fourth quarter. They'd dominated the Rams for nearly 52 minutes, and appeared to be on their way to an absolute stranglehold of a three-game lead in the division. A funny thing happened just then, though. Someone forgot to tell the Rams they were done.
Marc Bulger went ballistic for St. Louis in the final eight-plus minutes of that game, throwing for two touchdowns near the end of regulation and leading them on a drive that produced a game-tying field goal with thirteen seconds to play. When the Rams won the toss in overtime, you just knew it was over. On a 3rd and 9 on their first drive in OT, Bulger went up top to Shaun McDonald. Poof! Just like that, the Rams had made a race of the division again.
The game started an almost predictable swoon from the Seahawks, who have a history of not being able to close the deal. They fell in New England a week later, and saw their division lead evaporate when the Rams beat Tampa Bay on Monday night. Seattle's losing ways would continue for yet another week, as they suffered an absolutely horrible loss to perrenial doormat Arizona, who the Seahawks had beaten by an average of 28 points last season. The Rams let them right back in it, though, losing to arguably the worst team in football in Miami.
Two weeks later, it looks like Seattle might be back on track. After struggling to a victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week Eight, the 'Hawks let San Francisco hang with them in the first half last week and then pounded the Niners in the second half. The Rams, on the other hand, find themselves losers of two in a row after falling at home last week to a depleted Patriots' squad. With just one game separating the two in the standings, the key to the NFC West title could hinge on this game. Seattle would take a huge two-game lead with a win here, while the Rams could tie it up and own the tiebreak with a home victory over the Seahawks. Will it be revenge and redemption, or will it simply be a repeat of what happened the last time these two teams met?
Game of the Week: Seattle at St. Louis
When the Seahawks have the ball: Three weeks ago against the Cardinals, Matt Hasselbeck showed just how human he still is. Hasselbeck, pegged by many as one of the top five QBs in football prior to the season, went an absolutely disgusting 14/41 with 4 interceptions in Arizona. Of course, included in his 27 incompletions were the usual eight to ten dropped passes by his receivers. It would be huge if Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson can hold onto the ball this time.
The most important factor for the Seahawks' offense won't be the pass, however. Mike Holmgren must make sure to establish the run again against the Rams. When the two teams met in Seattle, Shaun Alexander ran all over the Rams in the first half, and chalked up 150 rushing yards in the game. Alexander will once again be a heavy factor in the Seahawks' offense, as their plan will be to get out early and pound away at the Rams defense with him. The Rams run defense is looking as porous as ever, as they've allowed over 125 yards a game in the last two weeks against teams that don't rely on the run much in Miami and New England. If Alexander gets 25 carries, Seattle will win this game.
When the Rams have the ball: While the Rams won the game with a tremendous aerial comeback in the fourth quarter back in Week Five, the game turned around a bit early in the third quarter. What happened was simple... "Mad" Mike Martz started using his running game. Marshall Faulk and Stephen Jackson were crucial in helping the Rams move the ball well in the third quarter, and though St. Louis scored just three points in the quarter, their defense finally looked rested. Whether Martz remembers this or not is anyone's guess.
Marc Bulger looked like absolutely nothing could rattle him at the end of their first matchup, but he's looked rattled the past few weeks. He's hit the turf eight times in the past two weeks, and has just a 3:2 TD:INT ratio in that same span. He'll get his yardage because of the system, but there's no guaranteeing that there will be any kind of payoff because of it. He does still have two of the best receivers in the league in Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and may have an opportunity to face his second straight depleted secondary, as Seattle's number two corner, Ken Lucas, is looking doubtful. That said, the Rams scored just two offensive touchdowns against the Patriots last week, who were without their top three cornerbacks for most of the game.
Special Teams: When we visited this game five weeks ago in Seattle, the advantage seemed to belong to the Seahawks in the return game. That certainly wasn't the case during the game, though, as Shaun McDonald set St. Louis up with both a key kickoff return and a humongous 30-yard punt return that set the comeback in motion. Seattle will need to work harder on their coverage this week against the Rams. Jeff Wilkins remains a more proven place-kicker than Josh Brown, but Brown is better from long range and has been solid.
Coaching/Intangibles: Quite simply, this game is the season for the Rams. If they lose this week, Seattle will completely be in the driver's seat, with an easier schedule to close out the season to help pad their two game lead. If Mike Martz can't use that to motivate his team, then nothing will motivate them. At the same time, Mike Holmgren can use that same opportunity to convince his team that this is just like that seventeen-point lead they held over the Rams in Seattle a month ago, and this is their chance to right the mistake of letting that game slip away. Either way, let's just hope Mike Martz doesn't do that ridiculous little happy dance he did in Seattle.... even if the Rams win.
The Verdict: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know.... the Seahawks fan living in St. Louis is a little overplayed, and I shouldn't be picking with my heart, but... All in all, Seattle is simply the more talented team, and I'm still convinced their the better coached team (though watching Holmgren coach pains me). Shaun Alexander will absolutely bust loose against the glaring holes in the Rams run defense, and it'll create an opportunity or two for Darrell Jackson in the secondary. Koren Robinson will drop his usual five passes, but it won't make a difference. The Seahawks will roll like they should have at home. 'Hawks 34, Lambs 17
Lock of the Week: Philadelphia over Dallas
The Eagles will be out for blood following their loss to Pittsburgh last week, and they're clearly the class of the NFC. Dallas isn't even the class of its own state. It's difficult to imagine the Cowboys quitting on Bill Parcells. They may make a bit of a run late in the season, but they just don't have the horses to hang with the Eagles, though. I hope there's something else on TV on Monday night. Eagles 30, Cowgirls 10
Upset Special: Tampa Bay over Atlanta
First-year coach Jim Mora, Jr. will be put to the test as he tries to find a way to finally move the ball against the Tampa Bay defense. Michael Vick has never really moved the ball effectively against the Bucs in his career, and has beaten them just once in four tries. Throw in the fact that Vick still has little command of the West Coast offense and that the Bucs have won three of four since Brian Griese took the helm at QB, and that should spell trouble for the first-place Falcons. Bucs 20, Falcons 13
And now, as we celebrate the opening of the Hot Stove League, let's have a look at the rest...
Baltimore at New York Jets - The Ravens took that thorn out of their side with a 106-yard interception return late in the game last week. There will be no hanging Chad this week in New Jersey, and Quincy Carter's career year in Dallas last season didn't fool me much. Ravens 23, J-E-T-S 17
Pittsburgh at Cleveland - The Men of Steel are riding high after beating unbeatens in the past two weeks, but now they take their show on the road to face their biggest rivals. After snatching defeat from the jaws of victory last week, the Browns should provide little resistance. Roethlisbergers 31, Browns 20
Detroit at Jacksonville - If only the Lions could win at home, they just might have made this week's Packers-Vikings game meaningless by now. They should, however, continue their winning ways on the road as they face a Jaguar squad minus Lord Byron. Lions 24, Jags 20
Chicago at Tennessee - Da Bears pulled the upset of the week in the Meadowlands last Sunday, but can lightning strike twice? A lot of what happens in this game will depend on whether or not Chris Brown and/or Steve McNair suit up on Sunday. My guess is that at least one of them will, which means I'm taking the Titans. Titans 23, Bears 13
Houston at Indianapolis - This should be the shootout of the week, but it will still be one-sided. The Colts have let everyone else in the AFC South hang in this thing far too long, particularly considering that both the Jaguars and Titans have suffered key injuries at QB. After last Monday's win against the Vikings, it would appear that the Indy defense is done giving games away. Colts 45, Texans 27
Kansas City at New Orleans - This should be another potential shootout, primarily because neither squad has a defense. Even without Priest, Kansas City figures to run all over the league's worst scoring defense. While Aaron Brooks may make things interesting, the Saints woeful season seems to be stuck in a tailspin. Chiefs 37, Whodat! 31
Cincinnati at Washington - As long as Chad Johnson doesn't start complaining that they're not getting him the ball when his team's up 20 points again, Cincy should continue to turn their season around. The 'Skins put up 17 last week, a feat they may not match the rest of the way. Bungles 24, Redskins 10
New York Giants at Arizona - The G-Men have had their problems with the Cardinals in the past, but Kurt Warner had a history of shredding them back when he was in St. Louis. While the Giants have done well with Warner at the helm, it's yet to be because he dominated a game. That'll change this week. Giants 30, Cardinals 24
Carolina at San Francisco - The positive? Someone has to win. The negative? Someone has to watch it. Panthers 20, Niners 17
Minnesota at Green Bay - While the running game's finally healthy in Minnesota, they're still missing their most important offensive player. The Vikes have been exposed the past couple of weeks without Randy Moss, and that should continue as Brett Favre leads the Pack to a big divisional win. Packers 34, Vikings 28
Buffalo at New England - No corners? No problem! Buffalo has started to turn their season around with a healthy dose of the running game, but they'll need to turn the ball over to Drew Bledsoe to beat his old team in this one. Unfortunately, Drew just doesn't have it anymore. Patriots 27, Bills 17
The Numbers
On the Year: 67-49 (9-5)
Game of the Week: 3-5 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 6-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-2 (1-0)
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Nov 12 at 10:27 PM
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