Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

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With one of the defining holidays in our nation's history just a week away, it's time for many of us to think of what we're thankful for. Atop my list of things I'm currently thankful for may be the fact that we won't be subjected to another absolute thrashing in the Monday Night Football game like anyone in their right mind knew the Eagles-Cowboys matchup would be. Instead, we'll get to see a terrific matchup with an underacheiving team with a terrific offense facing the defending Super Bowl champions who are a little undermanned defensively right now. What's more, it should get us in the holiday mood!

The Patriots continue to roll along, despite all of their injuries in the secondary. No Ty Law? No problem! Tyrone Poole's hurt? We'll figure something out! Asante Samuel can't go today? Oh well, we'll just put Troy Brown in at corner. If there was any doubt in anyone's mind that the Patriots won because of how well they played together as a team and helped out doing the little things prior to their past two games, it should be all but erased. While the Jets let their injury problems (primarily Chad Pennington's injury) get the better of them last week against the Ravens, the Pats haven't missed a beat.

We've been saying this for three weeks now, and it continues to become more and more serious: This is an absolute must win for the Chiefs. At 3-6, the defending AFC West champs are three games behind Denver and San Diego with just seven games to play. For Kansas City to have any realistic chance of making the playoffs, they'll probably have to win out. While they still have a pretty tough schedule remaining, it's clear that if the team that we saw last season would suddenly show up, they'd have a legitimate chance in all of those games. As difficult as it will be for them to come back from the hole that they're currently in, the Chiefs do still have two games with the Bolts and one against the Broncos, so they'll have some opportunities to make up ground directly against the teams ahead of them.

So, as our team from Massachussets heads into Kansas City to meet up with the Indians (err... Native Americans), let's get in the holiday spirit a little with our Game of the Week.

Game of the Week: New England at Kansas City

When the Pats have the ball: Corey Dillon had been quietly filling the one offensive need for New England until last Sunday night, when he absolutely busted out of his seams for 150 yards against the Bills. Every NFL team will have to prepare even more now for Dillon, which should continue to open up more space (as if he really needed it) in the passing game for Tom Brady. In short, the Pats offense, considered relatively custodial with its short possession passing scheme, will have more and more opportunities to open games up. They should have little trouble moving the ball through the air or on the ground against a Chiefs defense that continues to prove they're incapable of keeping the league's top-ranked offense in ballgames.

Dillon carried a huge load against the Bills, and will probably be called on for close to 30 carries again in this one. The crowd can be extremely hostile in Arrowhead Stadium, and MENSA coach Bill Belichik will likely try and take the crowd out of the game early by playing keepaway. If Dillon gets his thirty carries, expect him to bust loose for another 120-150 yards, though the Chiefs primary weakness defensively is in the passing game.

Brady should have a field day spreading the ball to his receivers, just as he always does. Last week, he completed nineteen passes to ten different receivers, and that was against a strong Bills (4th in the league) pass defense. As he lines up across from the Chiefs' 26th ranked pass defense, he shouldn't have too much trouble picking it apart to find David Givens, Troy Brown, Daniel Graham, and Co. Uber-blitzing Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham has finally found ways to get his defensive unit to get more pressure on the QB in recent games, but Brady responds better to pressure than any signal-caller in the league. He makes terrific reads at the line, and that should spell a long night for the Chiefs defense.

When the Chiefs have the ball: With or without Priest Holmes, the Chiefs can still pound the ball on the ground. Derrick Blaylock has stepped in and barely missed a beat, rushing for 186 yards and a score in a loss to the Saints last week. As long as Willie Roaf and the rest of the line remain in tact, the Chiefs will be a scary team to face for any defense that doesn't get top-notch play from their linebacking core.

For all of the talk early in the season that the Chiefs defense looked about the same as they were last year, the results have fallen off drastically. Again, Kansas City leads the league in rushing offense and total offense, and is fifth in the league in passing. They're moving the ball on everyone they play, but it simply isn't quite doing the job. The Chiefs are constantly battling awful field position, but are still third in the NFL in points scored. The offense will continue to chug along again this week, even if it is against Belichik's squad.

Trent Green has used Tony Gonzalez a bit more in the passing game the past few weeks, but it simply hasn't mattered quite enough. As fantastic a passing scheme as Dick Vermiel has installed the past few seasons, and as solid a QB as Green is, the Chiefs are still hurting at wideout. Eddie Kennison's best years are behind him, and even they weren't that good. The formerly stone-handed speedster has become relatively sure-handed, but that speed isn't nearly what it used to be. Johnnie Morton always holds onto the ball, but can't seem to do a whole lot in the red zone, and isn't a burner. Still, they thrive in this offense, which often provides matchup problems because of how well they spread the field and how fantastic the run game is.

Blaylock, who is averaging 5.2 yards a carry on the season, will be forced back into action on Monday night, and he won't be facing the Saints. He (along with Priest) shredded an extremely solid Atlanta run defense for 90 yards in the second half a month ago, and he'll have to bring that same gameface for the Pats. With that line in front of him, it could be a big day for Blaylock, but Belichik will be keying on the run all night long, no matter who is in the backfield.

Special Teams: The staple for the Pats throughout their championship runs of the past two years has been a phenomenal special teams unit, and this season is no different. They have a huge edge in the kicking game with Adam Vinatieri as opposed to the Chiefs' shaky rookie Lawrence Tynes. Teams continue to keep the ball away from the Chiefs' special teams star, Dante Hall, and the Patriots will be too smart to let him even sniff a return.

Coaching/Intangibles: While no coach loves his players more than Dick Vermiel, he's simply overmatched by Belichik, who coaches extremely well on both sides of the ball. Belichik is the best motivator in the league today, always has a defensive gameplan that will shut down the opponents' strength effectively, and adjusts well with his offensive gameplan. Vermiel's year with Mike Martz as his offensive coordinator in St. Louis certainly seems to have shown him something about getting an offense to gel, but he can't find an answer in his quest to find a way to put a competent NFL defense on the field.... The Chiefs' homefield advantage in Arrowhead Stadium may be the biggest advantage in the league, and they really need this ballgame.

The Verdict: In absolute must-win games against the Bucs and Saints, two .500 teams out of the NFC South, the Chiefs have laid eggs in consecutive weeks. This game will be different, as they'll play extremely well against a team that is vastly superior to them, but it will have a similar result. It should live up to the hype that it would have gotten had the Chiefs beaten Indianapolis and headed into the AFC Championship Game, and should be as exciting a Monday night game as we see all year, but the Chiefs weakness will bite them. Kansas City can officially start waiting for next year, and maybe (just maybe) hope for a high pick in the draft that can start turning that defense around. Patriots 38, Chiefs 35

Lock of the Week: Philadelphia over Washington

Joe Gibbs finally went to Patrick Ramsey last week, who made a game of it late against the Bungles. This week, he'll be facing one of the top pass defenses in the league, and the Skins' defense (their strength) won't be able to hold the Eagles under 20 points. Eagles 27, Redskins 17

Upset Special: Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

The Steelers have used an approach similar to that of the Patriots so far this season in moving to 8-1, but I smell a trap this week. In the past three weeks, the Steelers have knocked off two unbeatens and beaten their biggest rivals. When they face the Bengals this weekend, there will be little added motivation other than the fact that they can pretty much put the division away. The Bus will finally slow down this week and let some passengers catch up a bit, as the Bengals are starting to look like they did towards the end of last season, and are too good to be taken lightly. Bungles 27, Steelers 23

And now, as we try and figure out whether the NHL actually settled its CBA just in time for the Pacers-Pistons game on Friday night, let's take a look at the rest...

Tennessee at Jacksonville - Jags QB David Garrard had the best game of his career, college or pro, against the Lions in their overtime victory last week. He'll need the same effort against the Titans, as Steve McNair is supposed to finally be back for Tennessee. Expect the Jags to pull out another one late at home behind Fred Taylor and a solid short passing game by Garrard. Jaguars 20, Titans 17

New York Jets at Cleveland - Quincy Carter did what most of us expected him to do in Dallas last season, absolutely blowing a game in the fourth quarter by wasting too much time getting a snap off. He'll be back at the helm this week for the Jets, and should have a slightly better grasp of the offense. Throw in that they're facing a Browns' squad that looks like they've given up the past two weeks, and they should get back on track. J-E-T-S 27, Browns 13

Dallas at Baltimore - The most exciting thing the Cowgirls did during Monday night's game was opening their gates so that Nicolette Sheridan could go to the visitor's locker room. They won't be facing T.O. this week, but there should still be some birds dancing in the end zone. Ravens 26, Cowgirls 13

Detroit at Minnesota - The Vikings' defense continues to kill them, despite the fact that they're still moving the ball well without Randy Moss. Moss should still be out this week, but their defense should finally get well against the second worst offense in the league. Burlesons 34, Lions 20

Denver at New Orleans - In what could be the shootout of the week, the Broncos high-powered rushing offense heads to face the worst defense in the league. The Saints? They can score, too, but they'll be facing a much tougher Broncos' D. Broncos 41, Saints 27

St. Louis at Buffalo - The Lambs watched the Seahawks put themselves away for the second time this year, but they've found a couple of ways not to capitalize the following week and gain momentum already this year. This week should be no different, as their so-called "Greatest Show on Turf" doesn't usually thrive on grass or in the cold. Willis McGahee should run all over a Ram defense that allowed 176 yards to Shaun Alexander last week, and (unlike Holmgren) Mike Mularkey will know better than to turn the ball over to his passer. Bills 30, Lambs 24

San Francisco at Tampa Bay - After a nice little unexpected run, the Bucs took a step back against the Falcons last week. Expect them to be out for blood, as they're still in the playoff hunt and are facing a Niners' squad that might be the third best in the state of California.... if they were a college team. Bucs 27, Niners 16

Indianapolis at Chicago - In the most overhyped game of the week, the Bears' Brian Urlacher-less defense will face the daunting task of stopping the high-flying Colt offense. As terrific a job as Lovie Smith has done turning this team around and getting them in contention, the Colts will just put up way too many points for their offense to make it a game. Colts 34, Krentzels 17

Arizona at Carolina - The Cardinals finally took their show on the road for a W last week against the hapless Dolphins, and they'll get to face the most injury-riddled squad in the league this week. Arizona has taken a solid defensive approach into all of their games, and their offense is steadily improving just enough so that they can take down a few average teams. Look for much of the same this week. Cardinals 23, Panthers 17

San Diego at Oakland - The Bolts have lost six of their last seven in Oaktown, but they're starting to look like a team of destiny. They'll face a strong challenge from Jerry Porter and the Raiders, but they just have too many weapons offensively not to put this one away. Bolts 38, Raiders 27

Miami at Seattle - The 'Hawks got yet another horrific road start out of Matt Hasselbeck (and, more notably, his receivers) against the Lambs last week, but there's no better cure for a struggling and underachieving team than a home date with the worst team in football. 'Hawks 27, Dolphins 6

Atlanta at New York Giants - That other Manning gets his first career start this week, and I only wish it could be against the Chargers. No matter who he's facing, Eli's going to take quite a while to grow into the dominant QB that his brother is. Mike Vick continues to look more comfortable in the West Coast offense, and they shouldn't have to do much offensively to move a step closer to the AFC South title. Falcons 24, Giants 13

Green Bay at Houston - Brett Favre showed us last week that he's still got it, leading the Pack to a fourth quarter victory even after they blew a fourteen-point lead against the Vikes. The Texans looked like they were a team on the rise early on, but are coming off of back to back blowout losses to the Broncos and Colts. When you're struggling, you certainly don't want to see the hottest team in the league heading into town. Packers 34, Texans 23

The Numbers (Last Week in Parentheses)
On the Year: 75-55 (8-6)
Game of the Week: 3-6 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 7-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-3 (0-1)

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