Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Jive Turkey

Ever since the NFL switched to the eight division format and elminated the old system of divisional byes (back in the day, four of the five teams from each division would have their bye in the same week, with the last place teams rotating in two at a time), it's impossible to guage your favorite team's eight game mark as the midway point. Some of their most important rivals for playoff (or, in some cases, draft) positioning have played one more or less games than they have, meaning that there's some extra wiggle room one way or another. While half game differences come into play a lot more in baseball, the sheer shortness of the NFL schedule magnifies it a lot more.

So, before we take our look at the two earlier Thanksgiving matchups, we'll take a look back at how some of the divisional and wildcard races have shaped up to this point.

AFC East

As expected, this is New England's division to lose. Bill Belichik's Pats have been the mark of consistency over the past three and a half seasons, and at one point extended their winning streak to eighteen in a row in the regular season and 21 in a row overall before the upstart Steelers finally knocked them off. Not only do the defending champs currently hold a comfortable two-game lead over the Jets but the strength of schedule also falls in their favor as well. New England hosts Baltimore this weekend, but will face only one more team that's over .500... the Jets... While the Jets will have the advantage of facing New England in the Meadowlands in Week 16, they'll close out the season with three games against division leaders (@ Pittsburgh, Seattle, New England) before heading to St. Louis in Week 17. While the Jets appear to be in the driver's seat for a wildcard spot right now, they'd better hope Chad Pennington can come back with their tough closing schedule if they want to hold on.... Buffalo started out 0-4, but has won four of their past six games, including a 37-17 romp over the Jekkyl & Hyde Rams last week. Alas, the road back to playoff contention will be way uphill in the AFC. In the NFC, they'd contend.... The Dolphins have only one thing left to fight for: the #1 pick. The QB carousel has been interesting this year to say the least, as they seem to be alternating starters in two week stints. The defense has been extremely solid, but the Dolphin offense couldn't put up 20 points against most high school teams. I guess that's what happens when your best player decides he'd rather be a pothead than a millionaire.

Key Matchup(s): New England at New York Jets

AFC North

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the surprise team of the NFL, amazingly led by a fire and ice rushing attack (Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley) and the third QB taken in last year's draft (Ben Roethlisberger). While the resurgence of The Bus would be the story of the year in most seasons, Big Ben has gotten most of the headlines. It seems that every week, he shows just how mature he is, constantly making all the right reads and keeping his head when he's under pressure. Of course, having two elite wideouts like Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward factors in a bit as well, and the defense has had a lot to do with their surprising run to the top. Considering that most people had this team fighting for third place with the Browns, being in the driver's seat (they're both 9-1, but the Steelers beat New England head to head) for home field advantage isn't that bad. Pittsburgh should hold on and win the division, but it'd be tough to see them running the table. They still feature three games against solid .500 teams, and closing the season out with a trip to Buffalo isn't something I'd wish on my worst enemy... It became clear in Week 1 that the Baltimore Ravens weren't going to own this division, as many expected in the preseason. The Ravens struggled mightily in the first half, largely because of poor QB play from Kyle Boller. Nevertheless, they find themselves in good playoff position ten games in, with a 7-3 record. Just as it was with the Jets in the East, they won't have an easy road to close the season out. The Ravens still have trips to the top three teams in the AFC on their schedule, as they'll head to New England this Sunday before playing an absolutely brutal two-game road trip in Weeks 15 and 16 in Indianapolis and New England. Their other three games should all be winnable, but this stretch should make or break the Ravens.... The Cincinnati Bengals are the AFC version of the St. Louis Rams. In short, they have some severe identity crises. Second year coach Marvin Lewis was expected to possibly take this team over the hump this season, but it looks extremely unlikely. They have looked good in four of the last five weeks, including last week's 19-14 loss to the Steelers, primarily because their defense has started to gel a bit. At 4-6, the playoffs can be all but forgotten at this point, and even if they play well down the stretch, they'll struggle to reach .500 with road games at Baltimore, New England, and Philadelphia left on the schedule.... Ignore all comments that you saw earlier this week saying that Butch Davis is safe through the end of the season. I fully expect him to remain as the Browns' head coach until the end of the season, but it's unlikely he'll return next year. After a surprising playoff run two years ago, this team has regressed in each of the past two seasons, and although they've at least been in most of the games until the fourth quarter this year, they seem to be mailing it in a bit lately. Butch is starting to look like a dead man walking.

Key Matchup(s): Baltimore at Pittsburgh

AFC South

In what has been a surprisingly good first half race, the Indianapolis Colts appear to finally be taking a little control. It's been amazing offensive display after amazing offensive display for Peyton Manning's squad this season, as he looks to dismantle at least one long-standing Dan Marino record. Through ten games, Manning has a disgusting 35 touchdown passes, and is on pace to surpass Marino's record of 49 in a season in Week 15. He's had a lot of help, with an emerging duo of Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokely giving him two more targets to go along with his old standby, Marvin Harrison. Throw in the AFC's leading rusher, Edgerrin James, and it's easy to see why nobody can stop the Colts. The problem, however, is that they can't stop anyone themselves either. Indy owns a slim one-game lead over the surprising Jaguars, but they do have an incredibly difficult closing stretch that includes home games against the Ravens and Chargers along with a trip to Denver to close out the year.... Advantage Jacksonville, then? The Jags have been an incredible success story this season, largely due to a defense that never gives up and young Byron Leftwich, who doesn't seem to have the word quit in his vocabulary. The team has fought to a .500 record in the last two games without Leftwich, who is expected back on Sunday. As solid as the Jags have been, though, they have three incredibly tough games remaining on their schedule as well. While the Colts' fate will probably be decided in the last three weeks, the Jags will get a head start as they enter a tough two-game stretch that takes them to Minnesota before heading home to host the Steelers next week. While only Green Bay would appear to present a big obstacle after next weekend, if the Jags start to slide, they could be done.... The Texans have been a game opponent for everyone they've faced yet again this season, and they've even started winning some of those games. Regardless, at 4-6 and with the Jets, Colts, and Jags all remaining on the schedule, an 8-8 finish would have to be considered an accomplishment for this squad..... It's clear that all the pain that Steve McNair has played through in the past few seasons finally came back to bite the Titans. Their gritty leader on and off the field finally had to take about a month off to heal his injuries, and while Billy Volek was far from horrible, Tennessee couldn't make it without him. Just a year after an encouraging 12-4 season that ended with a three-point loss at the eventual Super Bowl Champion Patriots, .500 looks like a stretch. The Titans could certainly win four of their last six, but it won't be easy with the Colts, Chiefs, and Broncos all remaining on their schedule.

Key Matchup(s): Jacksonville at Minnesota, at Green Bay, hosting Pittsburgh
Indianapolis at Denver, hosting Baltimore and San Diego

AFC West

If the Steelers aren't the story of the year, the San Diego Chargers definitely are. After a terrible 4-12 campaign that saw them end up with the top overall draft pick, you would have thought the Bolts could at least have taken solace in that, but no.... Eli Manning had to be a whiney little (insert your favorite expletive here) about going to San Diego. After dealing Manning for their QB of the future, the previous QB of the future finally panned out. While this is still LaDainian Tomlinson's team all the way, Drew Brees has emerged this season both as a leader and a passer. The emergence of second-year tight end and former Kent State basketball player Antonio Gates has given Brees the top target in the league to throw to, and a defense that can come up with the occasional stop has turned some of last year's shootout losses into blowout wins. They have a tougher remaining schedule (Tampa, Indy, Kansas City twice) than their division co-leaders, but should pull this division out.... It's ridiculous how little publicity the Broncos' excellence this season has gotten. Only three teams (Philadelphia and New England being the other two) currently rank in the top ten in offense and defense. While many felt that giving up Clinton Portis for Champ Bailey may have been a bit much in the offseason, Mike Shanahan has proven once again that it's the system, not the player, as Reuben Droughns has accounted for nearly 800 yards on the ground in the last six games! Jake Plummer has grown into more than just a custodial passer who makes the occasional big play (surrounded by a lot of miscues) in the Broncos offense, and Champ Bailey has been the best corner in the league thus far. With the Chargers, Chiefs, and Colts remaining on the schedule, they'll have a few tough ones left, but a 2-1 record in those three games should win the division.... Dick Vermiel and the Kansas City Chiefs have found that a former head coach and supposed blitzing mastermind won't suddenly improve their defense enough to get them over the hump and into the Super Bowl. In fact, their defense, which ended up 29th last season, is ranked exactly the same as it was last year. While their top-ranked offense is actually just as good as it was last year, the defense hasn't come up with the turnovers (25 picks) that it did last year, and the special teams haven't been able to overcome their lack of anything resembling a defense. While the offense has carried them, their 1-6 record in games decided by ten points or less is what will leave them home for the playoffs this year.... The Oakland Raiders have been competitive for the most part, but the former old men of the league are now too young and inexperienced to present much of a challenge. The one positive thing remaining for the Raiders this season? They face Denver, Atlanta, Kansas City (twice), Tennessee, and Jacksonville the rest of the way. Unless something changes (aka a Mike Vick or Steve McNair injury) between now and when they play each of their foes, I don't see them winning a game.... in short, they should have another top five draft pick.

Key Matchup(s): Denver at San Diego

NFC East

As expected, the Philadelphia Eagles are running away with this division, and can actually clinch the division with a road win in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Terrell Owens has showcased just how good Donovan McNabb can be when he has a go-to receiver, and he's made the rest of the receiving corps better. As for McNabb? He's still spreading the ball around to more targets on a weekly basis than any other QB in the league, and he's still impossible to bring down in the backfield. In short, as much as everyone loves Mike Vick, there's no better pure playmaker in the league. Brian Westbrook has given the team one more added dimension, a legitimate running game. The defense remains a little soft against the run, but they don't break in the red zone. At 9-1, and with only the Packers (at home) and the Rams on the road looking to be potential stumbling blocks remaining, the Eagles should have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs for the third year in a row.... The New York Giants started off strong, and they're still in contention for a playoff spot in the weak NFC. Whether or not the fact that they're ushering their new era in at QB will hinder a run at the playoffs remains to be seen. While Eli Manning did stumble a bit in his debut as Kurt Warner's replacement against the Falcons last week, the G-Men stuck with the Falcons (currently in the driver's seat for a first-round bye themselves) until the final drive. With key matchups with Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule, a 3-3 finish would actually be a nice accomplishment for New York, which would leave them at 8-8. Sadly, that may make the playoffs in the NFC. Tiki Barber will have to continue running just as hard as he did in the first half to keep the Giants in contention, but it's clear that they'd rather contend for the next ten years than make the playoffs as a sacrificial lamb this season.... In an extreme lack of forecasting accuracy, ABC scheduled the Cowboys for three Monday Night games this season, thinking that last year's surprising 10-6 finish was more than just a mirage. The Cowboys have reverted back to their form of 2002, though, mustering only a handful of wins against fellow also-rans Cleveland, Washington, and Detroit. With a couple of friendly dates with the Redskins, Saints, and Bears remaining on their schedule, this team might reverse last season's finish exactly and finish 6-10.... Supposed savior Joe Gibbs hasn't exactly found a way to make that Washington offense move. Though they've actually accrued more total yardage than four teams (Detroit, Buffalo, Baltimore, Chicago), the Redskins have yet to score more than eighteen points in a game this year. Clinton Portis has been disappointing without that phenomenal Broncos' O-line in front of him, and a terrific second-ranked overall defense hasn't been able to mask their lack of offensive punch. On one positive note, they have games remaining against the 49ers (29.6 points against per game) and Vikings (24.6), so they may put 20 up in a game yet.

Key Matchup(s): Philadelphia at New York Giants

NFC North

The Green Bay Packers overcame almost as large a deficit as they did last year to re-take control of the division, as four straight early losses set them two back of the Vikes in Week Five. They made up their ground quickly, though, and are currently riding a five game winning streak as they host St. Louis this Monday. Not surprisingly, Brett Favre has been the primary reason that the Packers suddenly got off of life support, as he's average 284 yards and two touchdowns a game over the course of the streak. Ahman Green remains one of the more productive backs in the league when he's healthy, but is expected to miss game one of a crucial two-game stretch this week. After hosting the Rams on Monday, the Packers travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, and two wins here would give them a huge boost heading into their final four (all very winnable) games.... Say what you will about Daunte Culpepper, but don't say that he needs Randy Moss to keep his team in contention. Though the Vikings are still trying to recover from a three-game losing streak that saw their division lead evaporate, they put up 28 and 31 points in two of those losses (to the Colts and Packers, respectively). In short, their offense may have missed a beat, but they certainly didn't miss more than one. Nate Burleson has emerged as a legitimate star with Moss on the shelf, and has caught a touchdown in Minnesota's last four games. Onterrio Smith has returned from his suspension to give the Vikings the answer they've been looking for in their four-headed running back committee. Toss in emerging fifth-year Tight End Jermaine Wiggins, and they haven't missed Moss... much. But now, as if they really needed him back offensively, the most dominant Wide Receiver in football will return to help them make a playoff push. If only he could play defense.... The Detroit Lions have proven to be incapable of moving the ball offensively, either through the air or on the ground. Joey Harrington continues to struggle, which shouldn't be that surprising, considering that their #1 pick from last year (WR Charles Rogers) saw his season end in the first five weeks for the second straight year and this year's #1 pick (WR Roy Williams) has been playing hurt for the past six weeks. Without his top two targets (or in Williams case, without his top target operating at 100%) and with #3 wideout Az Hakim on the shelf, it's a wonder that Harrington has anyone to get the ball to. One positive note for the Lions: Kevin Jones is starting to show some of that promise that many alluded to in the preseason, and has run for 181 yards in the past two weeks. At 4-6, it doesn't appear that the Lions have a prayer of winning the division, though they could challenge the .500 mark... It appeared the Chicago Bears' season ended in Week Three against Minnesota, when QB of the future (and present) Rex Grossman's season ended with a knee injury. However, rookie Craig Krentzel took over in Week Eight to lead the team to three straight wins. Currently sitting at 4-6, the Bears have slightly exceeded expectations this year, particularly considering injuries to Grossman, RB Thomas Jones, and MLB Brian Urlacher have crippled them. Lovie Smith will turn this team around, but it's going to take another year or two.

Key Matchup(s): Green Bay at Minnesota

NFC South

Much has been made about Mike Vick's struggles with the West Coast offense early in the year, but it hasn't slowed the Falcons down much. At 8-2, and with a favorable late season schedule, they appear headed for a first-round bye. Warrick Dunn has re-found the form that made him so dangerous when he was in Tampa Bay, and the defense has been phenomenal, allowing 20 or more points just three times (two of which were wins). First year coach Jim Mora, Jr. has taken advantage of his team's strengths as well as a weak division, and should be coaching his first playoff game come January.... After the Tampa Bay Bucs started the season 0-4, it seemed like they were probably done. Welcome to the NFC, where nine wins will virtually guarantee you a playoff spot. Since Brian Griese took over at QB in Week Five, the Bucs have gone 4-2, and could take advantage of a soft schedule late to push themselves back into the playoffs. Though John Lynch and Warren Sapp are history, the Bucs still have a stout defense which has kept them in games. Coupled with Griese and a suddenly resurgent Michael Pittman (averaging 101 yards and has scored 6 touchdowns in the last four games), the Bucs could still do some damage.... The worst defense in the league resides in New Orleans, and they're not just going halfway. The Saints are ranked 32nd against both the run and the pass so far this season, and it's making it nearly impossible for their above average offense to keep them in games. Aaron Brooks took a lot of heat for his fumbling last season, and it's now suddenly extending to his throwing game. In what was arguably the most bizarre fumble of all-time a couple of weeks ago, Brooks actually tried to throw a screen to his running back who was ten yards behind him, only to find that the back had turned upfield. Brooks continues to throw a ton of ill-advised passes to defenders, and has also fumbled nine times. That said, he's also found ways to get the ball to Donte Stallworth, Joe Horn, and Jerome Pathon, and has thrown for over 2,500 yards so far this season. Until the Saints correct their defensive inadequacies, though, they'll be a second tier team.... The defending NFC champion Panthers have had arguably the toughest season that the previous season's conference champs can have. In Week One, they lost both their top receiver and top running back for the year. While DeShaun Foster was more than adequate as a backup, he lasted just three weeks before his season ended with an injury of his own. At this point, they have only fullbacks on the roster, and that's not going to help you win too many ballgames when your offensive gameplan is usually to pound the line. Jake Delhomme has shown flashes of the brilliance that he showed against the Patriots last year in the Super Bowl, and the defense has proven to be resilient all year long. They won't quit, but they're going to have to wait till next year if they want to make another run at a ring.

Key matchup(s): Atlanta at Tampa Bay

NFC West

In the preseason, everyone was hyping the Seattle Seahawks as a possible threat for the Super Bowl, and yes... we were included in that group. Through the first 232 minutes of the Seahawks' season, the hype looked legitimate. Then the Rams came back from seventeen points down and shattered Seattle's world for three weeks. Six weeks and fifty dropped passes later, the Seahawks find themselves in a dogfight for a division title that everyone handed them on a silver platter. Shaun Alexander has carried this team on his back for the first ten games, and it's scary to think of where they'd be without his contributions. Alexander currently leads the league with 1,151 yards rushing and is tied for second with 10 rushing touchdowns. Sadly, he's also their most reliable receiver in terms of drops. Matt Hasselbeck has run hot and cold this season, actually passing in the 35% range in road losses to Arizona and St. Louis. When he's on, he can be scary, but only if Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson, and #80 thief Jerry Rice can hold onto the ball. I swear, it has to be contagious. Jerry Rice has dropped about eight passes since putting on a Seahawks' uniform in Week Seven.... we're talking about the greatest receiver of all-time! The defense has been vastly improved, and is keeping the offense in every game. With four of their last six at home (3-1, 8-0 last season), the Seahawks' one game lead may look larger than it actually appears in your rearview mirror.... In that rearview mirror are the St. Louis Rams, who would own the tiebreak over Seattle because they swept the season series. The Rams have been the ultimate Jekkyl & Hyde performers of the year, showing up bigtime for both games with Seattle and a big game against Tampa Bay, but laying absolute eggs against the Dolphins and Bills in the following weeks. Because Mike Martz is running the show, the offense will win or lose the game based on how Marc Bulger plays. If he's on fire, the Rams can beat anyone. If he's struggling, Martz doesn't know how to use his running game effectively enough to pull out ballgames. The defense has taken a major step back after replacing the departed Lovie Smith with Larry Marmie, despite having primarily the same personnel. The Rams do have tough games remaining against Green Bay, Philadelphia, and the Jets, but they can be thankful that they won't have to play another cold weather game after this week's Monday Night Football contest in the land of cheese. Road trips to Carolina and Arizona are much more conducive to their style of play.... In continuing with our Jekkyl & Hyde division, the Arizona Cardinals have been terrific at home and flat-out dysmal on the road. After finally winning two straight for the first time in what seems like a decade, Arizona took its show on the road to face the injury-plagued Panthers... and got absolutely stomped 35-10. First year coach Dennis Green has helped make the Cardinals' offense appear to be legitimate. Emmitt Smith has shown flashes of the form that made him the all-time leading rusher a few years back, though he's still clearly past his prime. They've had some issues at QB with Josh McCown, but have a fine trio of receivers for him to get the ball to for the next few years in Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Bryant Johnson, each of whom is under 25. Ignoring the hiccups they seem to suffer every time they go on the road, their defense is starting to look like it belongs in the NFL. At 4-6, their chances are slim, but they do have four of their last six at home.... The San Francisco 49ers are the Dolphins primary competition for the #1 pick in next year's draft, and the two teams will square off in what should arguably be the worst football game of the year this Sunday. Though the Niners do have seemingly winnable games against Washington and possibly Arizona (the only team that they've beaten, though the next one will be in Tempe), the loser of Sunday's game should end up with that pick.

Key Matchup(s): Seahawks: @ Minnesota, @ New York Jets, Atlanta
Rams: @ Green Bay, Philadelphia, New York Jets
49ers: Miami

Turkey Day Matchups

Indianapolis at Detroit - Yes, the Lions are 33-29-2 on Thanksgiving Day. They've won five of their last seven, and seven of their last ten. They're used to the preparation for this game every year, and the Colts are not. Throw it all out the window! Peyton Manning's coming to town. In a matchup of the league's top scoring offense and the second worst offense in terms of total yards, this shouldn't be much of a ballgame. Manning will find plenty of receivers roaming free in a depleted Detroit secondary, and the Indianapolis defense will take advantage of their second straight offensively-challenged foe. This one should be just as exciting (one-sided as it may be) as the other game should be boring (though it should be a tight game), simply because the best offense in football will share the Turkey Day spotlight for the first time since 1965. Colts 45, Lions 20

Chicago at Dallas - If the turkey doesn't put you to sleep, this game should. After yet another embarassing 30-10 loss (and an injury to Vinny Testaverde) to the Ravens last week, the Cowboys will likely be giving overrated baseball and football prospect Drew Henson his first career start under center. This shouldn't bode well against a Bears' defense that has played well for most of the season, but will be out for blood after allowing 41 points to the aforementioned Manning last weekend. As for the Bears, Craig Krentzel should be used to their style of play. He played the same system in college. Depend on the defense for 58 minutes, and then come up with one late drive to win the game at the end. In a game that pits two of the five worst scoring offenses in the league against one another, I'll take the team that has the guy with more experience in tight games. Ohio St. beat Michigan in college, and this time their old QB will school Michigan's old QB, but neither will find the end zone. Ohio St. Bears 9, Michigan Cowgirls 6

The Numbers
On the Year: 88-58 (13-3)
Game of the Week: 4-6 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 8-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-4 (0-1)

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