Fighting Through the Tryptophan
November 28, 2004
I don't know about the rest of you, but someone had a little too much turkey between the football games on Thursday afternoon. Well... it was either that, or the Bears and Cowgirls just lulled me to sleep with their battle of futility. While we were right on with the obvious game on Thursday (the Colts absolutely destroyed the Lions), we were unable to accurately predict one matchup between two teams fighting for a top ten draft pick. Just to prove that we can fight through that Tryptophan-induced slumber and pick a matchup of awful teams, we're going to go with a different route for our Game of the Week this weekend.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We've heard all week what an amazing game the Ravens-Patriots game could be. I've heard dozens of analysts claim that Kyle Boller suddenly looks like a Hall-of-Famer because he's thrown a pair of touchdowns in each of his last two games. I've heard absolutely nobody bring up the fact that Jamal Lewis' absence is going to completely hinder a Baltimore offense that isn't that good when it's operating at full strength. Sure... their defense is going to give New England fits, but the Pats defense will give the Baltimore offense more than it can handle. Because I can't think of anything to say that hasn't been said other than the fact that the Ravens are in deep trouble without their best offensive weapon against the best team in football, we're going to the opposite side of the spectrum.
Game of the Week: Miami at San Francisco
The battle for the #1 Overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft!
When the Dolphins have the ball: Ricky Williams is going to run... oh wait. It's still up in the air as to whether the Mammals will have the services of their #1 running back, Sammy Morris, or whether they'll have to turn to Travis Minor on Sunday. Either way, Minor is expected to get the starting nod, and doesn't really fit the Dolphin offense as well as Morris. The Dolphin offense continues to need a running back who loves to run North-South like Little Havana's favorite pothead did, and Morris was starting to fit that mold. With Minor, they'll get more per carry, but he's simply not durable enough to pound the line very often.
A.J. Feeley has been horrible at taking advantage of an above average receiving core that's gotten some pretty good matchups. If he can't dissect the 49er defense this week, it's clear that Miami may have to consider taking a QB with the #1 pick that they'll earn with a loss here. The Niners will be without Ahmed Plummer yet again, and started rookie Shawntae Spencer and backup safety Dwaine Carpenter at corner in last weekend's 35-3 loss to Tampa Bay. If the duo is forced to start again this week, their task will be daunting against Chris Chambers and Marty Booker... provided the Dolphins can find someone to get the ball to them. Randy McMichael has been terrific all year, and should have little trouble finding some space underneath the Niners coverage. As little as the Dolphins' system likes to throw the deep ball, they should have plenty of chances to do just that.
When the Niners have the ball: Many had pegged Kevan Barlow as one of the sleeper running backs of the year. Simply put, the philosophy was similar to that of a hockey team full of role players.... somebody has to score! Eleven weeks later, we've found out we were all wrong. The hapless Niners offense has scored just 175 points (sadly, 35 more than the opposing Dolphins, and 44 more than the worthless Redskins). Barlow has treated many a disappointed fantasy owner to exactly one 100-yard performance, six touchdowns, and five games in which he's averaged less than three yards per carry..... this from the man who led all backs with 200+ carries in yard per carry average last season. On one positive note for the Niners' running game, Zack Thomas isn't expected to start for Miami on Sunday.
The Niners' offensive struggles do go beyond Barlow's inability to carry them on his back. While it could easily be argued that Tim Rattay has been really solid this season, throwing for an average of 267 yards a game and completing 62% of his passes, that 10:9 Touchdown:Interception ratio leaves a lot to be desired. Rattay is coming off of his worst effort of the year (15/31 for 147 yards and a pick), and will be facing the top pass defense in all of football this Sunday, so we shouldn't be looking for a whole lot out of Cedrick Wilson or Brandon Lloyd. Much like it is with the running game, they'll have an advantage if Thomas is unable to go, as leading receiver (oddly enough, the leading receivers for both the Dolphins and the Niners are their Tight Ends) Eric Johnson won't have anyone capable of covering him.
Special Teams: Both Olindo Mare and Todd Peterson are solid, veteran, legitimate NFL kickers. Neither is going to win you any ballgames with an amazing long-range kick. If there's an edge either way here, it's that Arnaz Battle is a threat to take a punt to the house, and the Niners will need every edge they can get in a field position battle.
Coaching/Intangibles: Dennis Erickson certainly has the experience edge over Miami's interim coach, Jim Bates. That's not saying a whole lot, though. Erickson, now in his second year with the Niners and sixth overall as an NFL coach, has never coached a team to a winning record. Admittedly, he doesn't have the personnel to win in San Francisco, but his team looks to have quit on him. Miami fought toe to toe with the NFC West leaders on the road last week in Bates' first game, and you can bet he'll have them fired up for a game that should actually be very winnable. As much as you never want to go into a game where you want to lose, the loser stands to benefit more from this game as the winner does, as they're each others' main competition for the number one pick. In fact, the loser will own the tiebreaker, and would have to win two games the rest of the way to blow the top pick, and the schedules don't look good for either team.
The Verdict: With the top pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select.... Neither team seems capable of doing much offensively, but the Dolphins do have one area of the game that they play extremely well in. A.J. Feeley will probably be able to take advantage of a decimated Niners' secondary once or twice, and the Niners won't be able to move the ball much against the Mammals. In Sunday's battle of futility, we'll find out that the 49ers are the worst team in the league. Mammals 24, Niners 10
Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh over Washington
The Redskins showed yet again last week that they're incapable of putting more than two touchdowns on the board against anyone, no matter who is at the helm. That simply won't be enough to keep pace with the dominant ball possession offense of the Steelers. In fact, with a tight defense and an offense that plays keepaway, I'd be willing to gamble that the 'Skins league worst 131 points on the season stays right where it is for next week's game. Steelers 23, Redskins 0
Upset Special: Arizona over New York Jets
What? Didn't Arizona just lose 35-10 to the 3-7 Panthers last weekend? The Cardinals have won three straight at home, and actually stuck with the Super Bowl Champion Patriots in the only home game they've lost. With Quincy Carter making his third straight start and looking pretty unimpressive, look for the Redbirds to take advantage of another uninspired effort out of the overrated signal-caller. Cardinals 24, J-E-T-S 20
And now, as we ponder just how low the BCS has fallen to have to allow a Big East team into the fold, we'll take a look at the rest...
Tennessee at Houston - Steve McNair showed just how important he can be to the Titans, as he led them to a tight win over the favored Jags in Jacksonville last week, but they won't be able to keep the score down low enough against David Carr, Andre Johnson and the high-flying Texans. Texans 31, Titans 20
San Diego at Kansas City - While the Chiefs can't seem to get over the hump, and the playoffs are looking like they're out of reach, this game is still another barometer for the Bolts. The Chargers haven't really been tested since their Week Six loss in Atlanta. They won't come out and lay an egg, and they'll certainly put some points up against the Swiss Cheese defense of the Chiefs, but they'll fall just a little short on the road. Chiefs 34, Chargers 31
Jacksonville at Minnesota - It's do or die for both these teams. A loss, and they'll still have a good shot at the playoffs, but they can forget their division title. Even with Randy Moss' probable return, the Vikings defensive problems are going to haunt them in this one. Byron Leftwich will be back under center for the Jags, and should be able to carve the Minnesota secondary apart all day long. The Jags will give up their fair share of points against one of the best offenses in the league, but their defense will make the difference. Jaguars 27, Vikings 24
Philadelphia at New York Giants - Can the Giants keep the Eagles from separating Eli's head from his body in this one? T.O. had his first big game of the year against the Giants in Week One, scoring three touchdowns in an Eagles' rout. Look for similar results in the Meadowlands as they lock up the division. Eagles 30, Giants 20
Cleveland at Cincinnati - The Browns surprisingly smoked the Bungles in the first battle for Ohio this season, but this isn't the same Bengals team it was earlier in the year. Even in last week's loss to the division-leading Steelers, the Bengals defense looked capable of stopping anyone in the league. Stopping an uninspired Jeff Garcia should be no problem, and Carson Palmer will get back on track. Bengals 34, Browns 10
Tampa Bay at Carolina - After last week's blowout of the 49ers, the Bucs can suddenly smell the playoff picture again. Don't look for them to find much resistance from a Panthers' squad that beat up on the road-challenged Cardinals last weekend. Bucs 27, Panthers 17
New Orleans at Atlanta - In the battle between the cousins, Mike will school Aaron. Brooks will find ways to move the ball against a decent, but slightly overrated Falcons defense, but Mike Vick will run for 100 and throw for 200 against a team that can't stop either the run or the pass. Falcons 37, Saints 27
Baltimore at New England - This game has the potential to live up to the hype that it's received throughout the week, but without Jamal Lewis, it will be tough for the Ravens to keep pace. Tom Brady will spread the Ravens' defense all around the field, and that will give Corey Dillon a chance to run right at them. Patriots 20, Ravens 16
Buffalo at Seattle - I've heard a lot of noise about how the Bills are going to be able to go into Seattle and dominate the Seahawks just like they did to the Rams, but they're not at home anymore. After a lot of bad luck and the failure to capitalize on some opportunities earlier in the season, Seattle finally caught a break last week against the Dolphins when Michael Boulware took one to the house to win it. Both of these teams are historically much better at home than on the road. Look for Seattle to return to the form they showed in the first three weeks of the season and put a hurt on Buffalo this weekend. Seahawks 34, Bills 10
Oakland at Denver - This is the Raiders' Super Bowl, as they have nothing left to play for but to beat their biggest rival and possibly spoil a division title. As bitterly as they hate the Broncos and would love to do it, they simply don't have enough talent. Broncos 31, Raiders 27
St. Louis at Green Bay - As if we needed a reminder of how different the Rams look in cold weather or on grass, their inability to even show up in the second half of a 37-17 loss in Buffalo last week really dealt a damaging blow to their hopes for a division title. Bad news for the Rams. The forecast includes snow on Monday night, and they're playing the best cold weather QB of all-time. Packers 27, Lambs 13
The Numbers
On the Year: 89-59 (13-3)
Turkey Day Matchups: 1-1
Game of the Week: 4-6 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 8-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-4 (0-1)
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Nov 28 at 12:40 AM
Fantasy Football 
Darn close to final score of 24-17. The niners have a pathetic excuse for an offense.