Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

4th and 26

The immaculate reception.... Doug Flutie's Hail Mary pass against Miami back when he was with Boston College... Bo Jackson's 92-yard touchdown run against Seattle on Monday Night Football in 1987. These are some of the moments that most football fans, be it on the college or pro level will always remember. Even the most casual fan will usually know what you're talking about when you mention Franco Harris, or Bo, or Flutie to Phalan.

In last season's NFC divisional playoff between the Packers and Eagles, Donovan McNabb and Freddie Mitchell created a play that many of us will never forget, as well. It didn't have the flash or the flair of a Hail Mary. It didn't float around in the air for ten seconds like Franco Harris' Immaculate Reception. We didn't even get a chance to see Mitchell turn on the burners and suddenly outrun the entire defense, or even the patented McNabb scramble to buy some time in the pocket. What we did get to see was McNabb take a typical pocket-passing five step drop and throw a bullet to Mitchell, who ran a beautiful 25-yard slant pattern. Most importantly, with their season on the line, the Eagles kept their season alive by converting the 28-yard strike on 4th and 26.

David Akers would later kick a 37-yard field goal with five seconds left to complete the drive and send the game into overtime. Akers would eventually kick a 31-yarder on Philadelphia's first possession in OT, sending the Eagles to the NFC title game for the third straight season.

So why is it that this play hasn't gotten quite the attention that it deserves in the week leading up to Sunday's rematch in Philadelphia? Was it because the drive didn't actually win the game, but merely tied it? Was it because Philadelphia, in typical Eagles' fashion, would lose the NFC title game for the third straight season a week later? Either way, it may have been the greatest play in Eagles' history, and you can bet that neither the Packers nor the Eagles will forget it come Sunday.

Game of the Week: Green Bay at Philadelphia

When the Packers have the ball: Ahman Green is expected to be in the Packers' backfield on Sunday afternoon, and not a moment too soon. Sure, Najeh Davenport went for 178 and a touchdown in Monday's blowout win over the lowly (but possibly playoff-bound?) St. Louis Lambs, but my grandfather could probably go for 100 and a touch against Larry Marmie's anti-tackling unit. Green will give the Packers' the added dimension of truly having a running game against an Eagles' squad that has made a dramatic improvement to the middle of the pack in run defense. Moreover, if he's anywhere close to 100%, he'll be asked to carry the offense in this game.

Brett Favre continues to show week in and week out that he can still sling that gun in the backfield, and he's done a tremendous job carrying the offense while Green has been injured. Still, Favre, ever the team player, will be more than happy to see a return to normalcy and take a step back in the offense. He'll still fling the ball around a bit against the Eagles, but his touchdown streak, currently at 36 games, may be in jeopardy. Philly has allowed just eleven touchdowns through the air all season. Nevertheless, Javon Walker, Donald Driver, and Bubba Franks will still find some available space in the secondary, and Favre will grittily move the ball as always.

When the Eagles have the ball: If nothing else excited the Eagles about the fact that the Packers had a short week to prepare for them, Marc Bulger's 448 yards through the air must have. Donovan McNabb should be able to attack a Green Bay secondary that looked pretty vulnerable last weekend, and Terrell Owens should explode in the spotlight after being held without a touchdown for just the third time this season in the Meadowlands last weekend. McNabb will give the Packers' front four a much more mobile target than Bulger did last weekend, and it can be expected that they won't duplicate Monday night's four sacks.

Brian Westbrook will be called upon to open up the Packer defense and create some man coverage for the Eagles' receivers. While it looked like the Packers run defense was swiss cheese early in the year, they've since cranked it up to sharp cheddar. A Packers' defense that allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of the first five games has allowed roughly the same yardage on the ground in the last six games that they did against Thomas Jones (152), Chris Brown (148), and Tiki Barber (182) in those three games. If Westbrook goes for more than 70 in this game, it'll be difficult to see the Packers' keeping pace.

Special Teams: Ryan Longwell and David Akers have both made plenty of pressure kicks in their careers, and Akers is arguably the best distance kicker in the game. Philadelphia's return game took a major hit when their special teams' star headed to the backfield to begin the season, but the Pack doesn't exactly boast a Dante Hall or Eddie Drummond waiting for the ball to drop either.

Coaching/Intangibles: This game means a lot more to the Packers than it does to the Eagles. Philadelphia became just the fourth team in league history to clinch a division title in November last week, but they do still want homefield, and the Falcons refuse to give them a whole lot of breathing room in that department. As weak as the NFC is this season, Green Bay (7-4) certainly isn't fighting with their playoff lives at stake, but they're still in a dead heat with the Vikings for the division title, and every win is huge for them. Andy Reid and Mike Sherman are 1-2 among active coaches in winning percentage, and both are terrific gameplanners and motivators. If there's one intangible that stands out aside from how much bigger the game is for Green Bay, it's gotta be 4th and 26. That just has to get into the Packers' heads if the game is close near the end and the Eagles have the ball.

The Verdict: Favre's streak will end at 36 games this week, though he will keep the ball moving and Ahman Green will find the end zone twice to keep the game close. Donovan McNabb will take advantage a few too many times against a suspect Packers' pass defense, though, and he'll hook up for two scores with Owens. Akers will bury a late field goal right down the middle, and the Eagles will move a step closer to having homefield advantage throughout the playoffs... again. Eagles 20, Packers 17

Lock of the Week: St. Louis over San Francisco

Only in this year's NFC could the Lambs probably be headed for a playoff berth, but games like this are the reason they'll be there come January. The Niners proved worthy of the number one pick in last week's home loss to the Miami Dolphins (who, ironically, absolutely smashed the Rams in late October). San Francisco shouldn't find the going any easier now that they take their pathetic show on the road, particularly since the Lambs will be playing on turf. Lambs 34, Niners 17

Upset Special: Houston over New York Jets

The Chad will return, and the Jets are at home, but the Texans are going to continue to surprise some people. Pennington may be coming back a bit early because the Jets' offense has looked absolutely god-awful with Quincy Carter at the helm, and it should show against an underrated Texans' defense. What it will really come down to, though, is that New York will be playing their first opponent who's capable of putting up more than 20 on a decent defense in about a month. Their offense will have to put some points on the board to stay in this one, and they just look incapable of scoring a whole lot lately. Texans 24, J-E-T-S 20

And now, as we wonder how a team could go undefeated in the best college football conference in America and not gain an invite to the National Championship game, we'll take a look at the rest....

New Orleans at Carolina - More "Only in the NFC" notes... one of these teams will find themselves at 5-7 at week's end, and possibly be one of the favorites to win the last wildcard spot. Defense wins championships, and that gives me every reason to bet against the Saints until they're finally officially eliminated from contention. Panthers 27, 'Aints 23

Minnesota at Chicago - As further proof that the NFC is merely the AFC's ugly stepsister, the highest powered offense in the conference will only be able to put up about half of what the Colts did against the Bears in Chi-town two weeks ago. Sadly, it'll still be more than enough to win. Vikings 24, Bears 13

New England at Cleveland - Probably the most disciplined team in the history of professional sports heads into Ohio to face a Browns' squad that finally saw its front office realize that they'd quit on their coach. Poor Terry Robiskie won't know what hit him. In an interesting side note, this is a homecoming of sorts for Bill Belichik, whose first head coaching job was with the Browns wayyyy back in the day (he actually replaced Marty Schottenheimer!) before Ravengate. Pats 41, Browns 6

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Mike Vick showed that he may finally be over the troubles that plagued him against the Bucs' defense in his first couple of seasons at the helm. In an interesting twist for Tampa, their best offensive star of the Tony Dungy years (sadly, remembering those pitiful offenses, Martin "Automatica" Gramatica) was finally let go this week. Without the flying Gramaticas, the Bucs are toast. Falcons 23, Bucs 14

Arizona at Detroit - The Cards are awful on the road, and the Lions are just as pathetic at home. Something's gotta give, and it sure won't be John Navarre. Lions 12, Cardinals 7

Tennessee at Indianapolis - What a difference a year makes. Last season, this matchup pitted the co-MVPs of the league against each other twice, with Indianapolis winning both of them. While Manning is destroying the league again for the Colts, McNair can't seem to find his way onto the field enough to help the Titans. Then again, maybe things haven't changed that much. The Colts should walk all over Tennessee again. Colts 37, Titans 20

Cincinnati at Baltimore - If you were like me in the preseason, you would have had this circled as a game that could decide the AFC North. Goes to show what we know. If Marvin Lewis' offense finds a way to put up 58 (or even a third of that) on the defense he built, it's time to give up. Ravens 20, Bungles 17

Buffalo at Miami - A lot of people have looked at this game and screamed "trap" after the Bills walked all over Seattle last weekend. What this game will come down to, though, is the NFL's fifth worst offense against the league's third best defense. If Miami can find a way to score on defense, they might have a chance. While Bledsoe will certainly give them a shot or two at doing that, Willis McGahee will shine enough to counterbalance that in his homecoming. Bills 20, Mammals 10

Denver at San Diego - In that other game we considered as our Game of the Week... Two strong and balanced offenses will square off against two defenses that are strong in different areas (San Diego's great against the run, while Denver boasts one of the top pass defenses in the league). The difference? Champ Bailey probably won't be covering Antonio Gates, and the Chargers' best threat should find some open space in the red zone. Chargers 27, Broncos 23

Kansas City at Oakland - The Chiefs (and I use this term lightly) defense continues to keep them from winning anything. Oakland won their "Super Bowl" against the Broncos last week, and they're due for a letdown. They'll find ways to score against the Chiefs, but won't be able to stop the vaunted Kansas City rushing attack. Chiefs 38, Raiders 34

New York Giants at Washington - (That other) Manningpalooza continues this weekend, as he moves on from facing the top two teams in the conference to face the second best defense in the NFL. If ever there was a plan to set your #1 overall pick up for failure, this must be it. The 'Skins will fail to score 20 for the twelfth time in twelve games this season, but they won't have to in order to win this game. How does San Diego look now, Eli? Redskins 16, G-Men 10

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville - In any other season, the Jags surprising run might lead them to the playoffs, but alas, the comparison between the AFC and NFC is roughly the same as a comparison between the SEC and the Ivy League (and no, I'm not talking about academic standards). Ben Roethlisberger will continue his dream-debut and keep his streak in tact. Steelers 27, Jags 24

Dallas at Seattle - As a Seahawks' fan, I reached a new low when enduring their 38-9 thrashing at home by the Bills last week. Regardless of their opponent the rest of the way (even if they were to somehow draw an exhibition against the 49ers somewhere along the way), we will pick against Seattle until Mike Holmgren is fired and/or Steve Largent takes a break from politics to teach Jerry "The greatest friggin' receiver of all-time" Rice how someone wearing #80 in Seattle is supposed to hang onto the ball.... oh, and maybe school some of those other receivers on that same subject as well. Cowgirls 20, Seahawks 17

The Numbers:
On the Year: 98-66 (9-7)
Game of the Week: 5-6 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 9-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-5 (0-1)

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