MAC Attack!
December 09, 2004
Thumbing through the games this week, I saw just four games with any real potential for the Game of the Week, but one clearly stood apart from the rest. Rather than our traditional lead-in where we just hype up our Game of the Week, let's take a quick look at all four that could have been worthy of the honor.
Seattle at Minnesota - In this season's annual battle to see who wants to choke away their season more, the Seahawks take their show on the road after completing a 1-2 homestand against three sub-.500 teams. We all saw what the Vikings are capable of last year, as they went 3-7 in their final ten, including blowing a twelve-point lead in the waning minutes against Arizona in their final game, to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs. They just may be at it again, as they looked absolutely brutal in a 24-14 loss in Chicago last weekend.
The Seahawks have a history of choking themselves, and much like Monday (with the blown Keyshawn call), they aren't always the only ones shooting themselves in the foot.
- After pulling what seemed like the upset of the century way back in 1983, defeating Dan Marino and the Super Bowl favorite Dolphins in the divisional round as the wildcard team, the 'Hawks failed to show up against a Raiders team they'd beaten twice in the regular season.
- As with the Keyshawn Johnson touchdown on Monday night, Vinny Testaverde was heavily involved, as he lunged for the end zone on the final play of the game, was clearly stopped at the one-yard line (not even the one-foot line), and it was ruled as a touchdown in a 32-31 Jets win.
- A year later, in Holmgren's first season as the coach, the 'Hawks would blow a 17-3 lead against the Miami Dolphins in the franchise's first ever home playoff game. This was Dan Marino's last win, as the Mammals went on to lose 72-0 to Jacksonville the next week.
- The 'Hawks blew a seventeen point lead against the Baltimore Ravens last season, in the infamous "extra timeout" game. With the 'Hawks clinging to the lead late (after allowing an absolutely unforgivable 38 points already), the referee called an infraction on Baltimore for not crossing the line of scrimmage while the 'Hawks were huddling. The official then recanted his call. The clock was stopped, and never re-started before the play), they were eventually stopped on fourth down, allowing Baltimore time for just two plays. The first was a pass interference call on a hail mary, putting the Ravens in field goal range to tie the game. Matt Stover would eventually win the game with another field goal in overtime. Had the refs wound up the clock again after deciding there was no penalty on the play, Seattle would have run the clock out.
- The well-noted collapse against the hated St. Louis Lambs, where the Seahawks blew a seventeen-point lead in the final eight minutes of the game. Many feel this is still responsible for their slide, and that they may not recover until next season (if ever).
Regardless, everyone who reads this column regularly knows it. I'm a 'Hawks fan, and I paint it both proudly and disgustedly (more often than not, this year) on my chest. It's almost like rooting for the Montreal Exp... oh... wait, that explains it. Monday's loss to the Cowboys was the MOST disappointing LOSS in Seahawks' history! Maybe Holmgren should try coaching the final two minutes of the game instead of jumping up and down and celebrating like... hmmm... Jerry Rice, Bobby Engram, and Matt Hasselbeck were doing. In the offense's defense, they were unbelievable on Monday night, but defending the Seahawks' offensive performance was the only defense we got to see.
Whoever wins this game will be trying to give it away, but the other team will just try to give it away a little harder... you'd think they were fighting for a draft pick or something!
St. Louis at Carolina - Much like the Seahawks, the Rams seem to want to do whatever it takes not to win the NFC West crown. Trust me on this one. I live in St. Louis, and Mike Martz was acting giddy in his Monday press conference after last week's lackluster 16-6 win over the Niners, treating it as if they'd just blown out the Patriots. I have news for Martz... the Niners are 1-11, and clearly on their way to the number one draft pick. Steven Jackson looked incredibly solid, though it'd be difficult to say whether or not he would be able to repeat such a performance against an actual group of professionals. Marc Bulger is done for the next two weeks, Arlen Harris is going to be starting at RB, and their defense still couldn't find a way to stop an old lady driving during rush hour. Sadly, they did stop the 49ers offense.
As for the Panthers? Admit it. You've all played in fantasy leagues where at least one team changes its name at some point to something like this: "The IR Squad", "The Disabled List", or my personal favorite, "Why, God, Why?!?!?" How the Panthers keep defying the odds and staying in the playoff race, I don't know, but I'm sure it has something to do with the fact that they're in the NFC.
While this matchup isn't intriguing in the sense that one of the teams could not only make, but actually do some damage in the playoffs, there is a potential playoff spot on the line here... not to mention a disheartening loss that the Lambs (and Torry "Trade me to the Seahawks" Holt, with his dropped touchdown pass) suffered in the playoffs to the Panthers last year.
Cincinnati at New England - To me, this is the Game of the Week, though it won't be what we go with for the column. After putting up 58 two weeks ago against Cleveland, the Bengals rallied and put up an unbelievable 24 points in the fourth quarter in Baltimore last week. At 6-6, their playoff hopes aren't as strong as they would be in the NFC, but they're just a game behind the Broncos and Ravens for the final spot. The Bengals will have a tough go of it the rest of the way, with the Pats this week, a battle with Buffalo next week, and a trip to Philadelphia to close out the year. Nevertheless, they showed last week that they're capable of playing with some of the big boys of the AFC, and they have to try and prove it this week.
This game means little to the Patriots besides staying in the race for homefield throughout the playoffs. With a two-game lead on the Jets, along with an assumed edge in the tiebreaker (even if the Jets were to beat the Patriots, it would be New England's only loss in the division. Buffalo beat the Jets a few weeks ago, and the Pats beat them in Foxboro earlier this year), repeating as the AFC East champs is basically a formality at this point. They'll bring their usual stout defense with them, but it should be great to see how their depleted secondary can hang with Chad Johnson and Tajudeen Houshmandzadeh.
As the Bengals are still a longshot heading into the week and the Patriots are... well... the best team in football over the past four years, the standings won't show just how great a game this should be.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh - Sadly, this is the only game that pits two teams that are above .500 against one another. In my opinion, it lacks the luster of the Bengals-Pats game because both teams would appear to be breezing their way into the playoffs. The Jets currently hold a two-game edge over the Ravens and Broncos for the second wildcard spot, and it would be pretty difficult to see them blowing that lead. They do, however, have nothing but division leaders (or co-leaders) remaining on the schedule, including this matchup with the Steelers and a rematch with the Patriots in two weeks. Fortunately for New York, those other two matchups against division leaders are against the current co-leaders of the NFC West, the aforementioned Lambs and Seagulls.
The Steelers clinched a tie for the AFC North crown when Carson Palmer went nuts in the final quarter at Baltimore. With a four-game lead and four games to play, they're a shoo-in to win their third division title in the past four years. All that's left for Pittsburgh to do is win out and finish in a tie with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC, as they own the tiebreaker.
While this game holds a lot more water in the playoff positioning sense than it does for the playoff hunt, it could still be the best game of the week, and it is still meaningful for both teams involved.
Game of the Week: New York Jets at Pittsburgh
When the Jets have the ball: Chad Pennington's return drew rave reviews in New Jersey last weekend, though he threw for just over 150 yards. Pennington, along with his opposite number this week, Ben Roethlisberger, has developed into yet another new breed at QB. While so many people focus on the running QB's in the league (Mike Vick, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, etc.) as the new breed of QB, Pennington, Roethlisberger, and New England's Tom Brady have established the game management breed. As terrific as Pennington and Roethlisberger have been over their breif careers, they rarely throw for more than 200-225 yards per game. They have a calming effect on their teammates, and they almost always come through in the clutch. It was blatantly obvious how big Pennington's return was to this team last week, as they put up 29 points against the Texans last week after scoring just 40 in three weeks with Quincy Carter under center.
Curtis Martin has proven that their is life after thirty for running backs (read here, Marshall Faulk), and is enjoying a renaissance after consecutive down seasons in 2002 and 2003. Through twelve games, Martin is just five yards short of his rushing total from last season, and well beyond the 1,094 yards he had in 2002. Furthermore, his ten touchdowns eclipse the nine that he scored in 2002 and 2003... combined. Martin is averaging a ridiculous 108 yards per game, and his 4.6 yards per carry is a career best. He'll be counted on to try and carry quite a load this week against the league's top defense, both overall and against the run.
When Pittsburgh has the ball: Like Pennington, Roethlisberger has wowed us with his composure all year, but he hasn't blown anyone away with his actual passing statistics. In fact, Big Ben has thrown for over 200 yards just twice in his ten games under center for the Steelers, and is proving that a QB who manages a game well can win in the right system. In those ten games, Roethlisberger has gone 10-0, a record at the start of a career, and he's led two fourth quarter comebacks where the Steelers won the game on their final drive. Can you say clutch? After barely outgunning former Marshall QB Byron Leftwich, he'll get the honor of facing Leftwich's predecessor for the Thundering Herd in Pennington. This could have all the drama of the MAC title game for Roethlisberger, the former Miami (OH) star.
Speaking of running backs proving there's life after thirty, how about Jerome Bettis! The Bus filled in more than admirably while Duce Staley was injured for a month, eclipsing 100 yards in four straight games. Though Staley is back, it only makes the Steelers' rushing attack stronger, re-instating the thunder and lightning style as both backs get carries. When teams adjust a bit to the more East-West style (though Staley can pound the ball as well) of Staley, the holes on the inside open up for The Bus, and he comes charging through. Much like the Steelers, though, the Jets are incredibly stout against both the run and the pass, and currently boast the league's best scoring defense, so points will be at a premium.
Special Teams: Neither team boasts an incredibly strong kicking game, though the Jets' Doug Brien is having a career year. Jeff Reed remains one of the Steelers' biggest weaknesses, though he has yet to be exposed. The punting game could be interesting for both teams, as Santana Moss and Antawn Randle-El may be two of the three most exciting return men in the league. Both teams have been solid on coverage, but this game should be so close (and low-scoring) that one mistake on special teams could turn the game.
Coaching/Intangibles: You've got to like what Herman Edwards has done in his three years as the Jets coach. He's taken the 2001 Belichik angle, turning the team into a family that depends upon one another and believes in one another. That said, Bill Cowher is the longest tenured coach in the NFL (by a landslide), and there's a reason for this. This season may be his best coaching job yet, as nobody expected the Steelers to be where they are now, or even in the playoff hunt for that matter. Heinz Field has yet to develop quite the hostile reputation that Three Rivers once did, but the Steeler faithful always seems to be into it.
The Verdict: The Kid passed his first test of a former college opponent, but Chad is going to take him to school this week. The Jets will hang with the Steelers, finding ways to plug the gaps that Bettis and Staley have made such terrific use of. Curtis Martin will build on what Fred Taylor did to the Steeler defense last Sunday, gaining the tough yards that the Steelers usually keep backs from getting, and Pennington will lead the Jets on a late game-winning drive to seal the deal. J-E-T-S 17, Steelers 13
Lock of the Week: Baltimore over New York Giants
After falling apart in the final quarter against the Bengals last week, the Ravens now find their backs against the proverbial playoff wall. The defense will be out to break Eli Manning. Speaking of Eli, could Tom Coughlin's timing have been any worse? Manning's first five starts will be against Atlanta (strong defense, second best team in the NFC), Philadelphia (solid defense, best team in the NFC), Washington (second best defense in the league), Baltimore (best defense over the past five years), and Pittsburgh (assuming he makes it to next week's game). Talk about adversity to start your career, and seriously, the sequel's never as good as the first one. Lenore 27, Eli's Emus 3
Upset Special: Cincinnati at New England
I told you this game intrigues me. Without Ty Law roaming the secondary, Chad Brown will find a few holes in the secondary. Luckily for the Bengals, Carson Palmer is starting to take advantage of this. If the Bengals thought they were putting themselves on the map with last week's win in Baltimore, just think what this win would do to Marvin Lewis' squad. The Pats always let teams hang around a little more than they should, and they'll fail to put this one away. Bengals 27, Patriots 23
And now, as I try and scrounge up enough money to buy a new TV after Monday night's debacle, let's look at the rest...
Oakland at Atlanta - Not like we can blame them with Mike Vick's propensity for injuries, but were the Falcons already resting their whole team for the playoffs in last week's 27-0 loss to the Bucs? Jim Mora will at least let his team have some fun in the first half this week, and that should be enough against the Silver & Black. Falcons 27, Raiders 20
Cleveland at Buffalo - The irony here? The 6-6 Bills are double digit favorites, and they're not even playing a team from the NFC! After allowing a disgusting 32 points to the Dolphins last weekend, I'm not quite so sure we can classify the Bills as red hot, but they'd be hard pressed to blow this one. Bills 34, Browns 17
New Orleans at Dallas - Is Julius Jones this good, or are the run defenses he's facing right now this bad? Either way, the run defense somehow finds a way to get worse this week, and that should spell another 150 for Tuna's sleeper. Cowgirls 27, 'Aints 24
Chicago at Jacksonville - The Bears beat up on the soft Vikes last week, while Jacksonville lost a gritty battle against the hard-nosed Steelers to push them temporarily out of the playoff hunt. For the first time all season, Byron won't need any last-minute heroics to win a game. Jags 20, Bears 6
Indianapolis at Houston - For his next trick, Peyton Manning will throw seven touchdown passes in three quarters with a blindfold on. Colts 52, Texans 31
Seattle at Minnesota - Somebody give him the Heimlich! After scoring with eight seconds to play to take a three-point lead, the Seahawks will groan in disgust as Nate Burleson takes the insuing kickoff to the house. Though Burleson trips and falls at the Seattle 20, he is untouched while on the ground. As the horrific Seattle coverage team scrambles to chase him back down, they appear to knock Burleson out of bounds at the two-yard line, but the referees are already signaling a touchdown. Again... the Seahawks will not win another game until Mike Holmgren is gone, but they may make the playoffs by going 6-10 in the NFC anyway. Vikings 31, Holmgren's Heimlichs 27
Miami at Denver - A.J. Feeley finally put some points on the board for the Fins last week, but he had to throw five picks to do it. Against Champ Bailey and Co., he'll be lucky not to double that figure. Broncos 30, Mammals 13
St. Louis at Carolina - Despite last week's demolition of the 49er offense, Mike Martz's defense is still Downy soft. Nick Goings has been the surprise stud of the past month, and there's nothing to indicate he won't run all over these lambs. As a side note, Chris Chandler will almost make it through a second full game, but he'll suffer a concussion when Arlen Harris headbutts him in celebration of a touchdown that cuts Carolina's lead to eighteen in the waning minute. Panthers 38, Lambs 20
Detroit at Green Bay - Brett Favre will start another touchdown streak this week, and pray he never has to visit Philadelphia again. Packers 26, Lions 17
San Francisco at Arizona - The QB carousel continues, with Josh McCown expected to return under center on Sunday. The Niners look to repeat their only win of the season, but they'll find it much more difficult on the road. Arizona still has games remaining against the Lambs and Seagulls, and will eventually win the NFC West by finishing 7-9. Cardinals 24, (Aaron) Rodgers 7
Tampa Bay at San Diego - The Bolts did everything they could to give the big one away last week, but the Broncos just didn't want it. Maybe it has something to do with the west in either conference? The Bucs find themselves right back in the playoff hunt after last week's spanking of Mike Vick and the Falcons, but they won't find a way to beat the two most prominent players Vick's pick was dealt for. Bolts 31, Bucs 23
Philadelphia at Washington - McNabb won't throw for five touchdowns in the first half. Then again, the 'Skins won't score 20 again all year, and they'd have to this week. Eagles 23, Redskins 9
Kansas City at Tennessee - As if the Chiefs needed some more bad news, Priest is now officially done for the year. The Titans will try another six onside kicks in this game to keep the Chiefs' offense off the field, but Kansas City will be a little better at recovering them than the Colts were and take advantage of some short fields. Chiefs 30, Titans 27
The Numbers
On the Year: 110-70 (12-4)
Game of the Week: 6-6 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 10-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-6 (0-1)
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Dec 9 at 11:23 PM
Fantasy Football 
Wow, that's impressive. By the way, are you making your predictions against the spread or straight up?
It's not necessarily that we don't use the spread because it would be harder to pick the games, but also because of the old disclaimer we used to run over the column that these picks are "not intended for gambling purposes." While I'd like my record to look good at the end of the season, Out on a Limb is just meant for fun, both for me and (hopefully) for the reader.
I try to use a much more serious tone with my baseball column (The Hook), and OOL is more of just a secondary (go a little crazy with it, I.e, my prediction on the end of the 'Hawks-Vikings game) thing that I do to keep myself writing throughout baseball's offseason. It seems to be the one column that's written on the site that doesn't really have any fantasy statistics or predictions involved, but just picks the games for the heck of it. Perhaps we'll bring the spread back for next season, but it's doubtful. We'll see.