Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Relocation Bowl

Yeah, yeah.... it's been almost a decade since Art Modell sold his soul and moved Cleveland's beloved (original) Browns to Baltimore. It's been even longer since the Indianapolis Colts created that void by vacating Baltimore after over thirty seasons to head for their own greener pastures in Indianapolis. Nevertheless, there's always an added spark when you're seeing that this week's opponent used to play in the same city you currently play in. Very few Ravens currently have tenure going back to the days of the Browns, and there's nobody on the Colts' roster that was even in the league way back in 1983, when the Colts moved to Indy. Still, the old city bragging rights should add a little fuel to the vastly contrasting styles of the Colts and Ravens to create the best matchup of the week.

Peyton Manning currently stands just two shy of Dan Marino's record of 48 touchdown passes in a season. While he has three games remaining to achieve his goal (in other words, he's going to break it... it's just a matter of when), his latest attempt to break it will be against the premiere defensive football team of the last decade. Manning's furious, pass-happy (particularly in the red zone... just ask any Edgerrin James owner) and audible-happy style continues to leave defenses guessing week in and week out. A top-notch showing this week would put to rest any of the critics who say that Manning wouldn't be having the season he's having if not for the rule change that allows receivers more freedom off the line. No matter how well-known the Ravens are for their defense, the Colts will pile up a few points against them, and you can be sure that the best QB in the league will be responsible for some of them.

The Ravens, however, have to look at this game as an opportunity to show that their defense is indeed alive and well. While teams used to dread facing the Ravens' defense more than any opposing unit in the league, they haven't received nearly the recognition that teams like the Steelers, Patriots, and even the San Diego Chargers have gotten this season. There's a reason for this, as the yardage totals that they've been giving up have risen a bit over the past few seasons. They do, however, have one thing that they can hold their head up high about. The Baltimore Ravens have allowed just ten touchdowns through the air in their first thirteen games, and Peyton will have his work cut out for him if he plans to break Marino's record this week.

Game of the Week: Baltimore at Indianapolis

When the Ravens have the ball: We all know that this isn't what this game is all about. Anyone and everyone who's watching this game will be watching to see how the Colts' insane top scoring offense (454... leaders by a ridiculous 64 points) does against the Ravens and their fourth-best scoring defense (205). However, it's important to realize that while the Colts' defense has shown vast improvement in recent weeks, the Ravens' offense has taken a similar turn for the better. Most people think that the reason is Kyle Boller, who has seen a drastic upturn in his numbers, but there's someone else who just might be responsible... Todd Heap.

Admit it, Ravens fans. Kyle Boller was awful at the beginning of last season, got injured, and suddenly looked solid enough to guide a run-first offense down the stretch when he came back. Through the first seven or eight games this season, Boller didn't look much like the kid who was starting to develop some confidence towards the end of 2003, but like the confused rookie who couldn't pass for more than 100 yards in half of his starts at the beginning of 2003. When the team lost their top (only?) receiving threat after Week Two, it looked like Boller had no place to go but down, and from his starting point, that's really saying something! Boller has, however, started to turn it around, much as he did towards the end of last season.

In Week Eleven (two weeks before Heap returned), Boller turned in his best game of the season to that point, throwing for two touchdowns without a pick against the Cowgirls. After getting crushed by New England (even Manning struggled against New England, finishing with his lowest passer rating in a game all year), Boller turned in a decent start against the Bengals two weeks ago before absolutely torching the Giants' secondary in Heap's second week back. Boller threw for a Peyton-like four touchdowns last weekend, two of which were to Heap, and you could just see how much more comfortable he was when he had a reliable option to fall back on. Whether Heap can turn Boller into a legitimate (I'm not going to go so far as say great, or even good) NFL QB over the long haul remains to be seen, but he should help to keep Boller servicable for the Ravens' offense.

Many fantasy owners were nervous about drafting the Baltimore offense (aka, Jamal Lewis) in the preseason because nobody knew how his legal troubles would turn out. Most breathed a collective sigh of relief when they found out that he would miss just two games because of a suspension, and that they would be long before the fantasy playoffs. That sigh, however, was premature. Lewis has carried the ball just ten times in the past four weeks, leaving the offense in Chester Taylor (243 yards the last two weeks) and Kyle Boller's hands. While Taylor has been remarkably solid, a healthy Lewis (along with the suddenly "re-found" Boller) could add a scary dimension to this offense. Though he's listed as questionable, all indications are that Lewis could be ready to give the Ravens at least 40 snaps on Sunday night, and he'll have to if they hope to stay in this game.

When the Colts have the ball: This is what it's all about. The passer who is having the most prolific season in the history of the league will be running and gunning against one of the hardest hitting and rock solid defenses in recent memory. While the Colts have a seemingly endless array of weapons offensively (Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Stokely, James, Clark, Pollard), Baltimore will throw just as much at them defensively with the league's best linebacker (Ray Lewis) and the league's best safety (Ed Reed, who should attract some MVP attention himself) to go along with Edgerton Hartwell, Terrell Suggs, and Gary Baxter.

Manning will have to do what he always does, make terrific reads at the line and audible into and out of trouble... keeping the defense completely on their heels. Whether the Ravens bite or not should be the fun part to watch. Manning will spread the ball around, as always, hitting his trio of 1000 yard and ten touchdown (in waiting, temporarily... Stokley has just nine TD catches, while Harrison is at the bottom of the barrell in yardage of the three, at 896) receivers at will. He'll also find ways to keep Lewis from being as aggressive as he usually is in pursuit of the run and the passer by hitting both Dallas Clark and and Marcus Pollard across the middle, forcing Lewis into more coverage situations.

As phenomenal as Manning has been (and, yes, I do realize he's currently on pace to break both the passing yardage and touchdown marks right now), he's still only about half of what makes this offense click. For those who thought that Edge was done after his two down years following knee surgery, guess again. James has somehow found enough time (and carries) in this aerial attack to lead the league in rushing through thirteen weeks, and is averaging a ridiculous 107 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Ordinarily, James isn't as big a threat as he should be in the red zone, as Manning seems to love to pass when the Colts have first and goal from the three, but he may play more of a goal-line role against a Ravens' squad that has allowed less than a touchdown a game through the air.

Special Teams: Mike Vanderjagt still may be the best kicker in the league, despite having a down year by his standards (14/17). Matt Stover has enjoyed a solid career and a great season, but I'd still rather have Vanderjagt lining up for a late field goal anyday. It more than levels out in Baltimore's favor when the return games come into play, though, as the Colts don't have anyone who can even come close to the electric skills of B.J. Sams.

Coaching/Intangibles: It's actually kind of funny when you look at how successful these two teams have been in recent years despite the fact that their coaches (tailor-made to work on their weaknesses) have failed to turn their weaker units around as much as you would expect. Tony Dungy has yet to transform the Colts' defense into a unit that's much better than laughable, but the Colts clinched their second division title and third playoff appearances in Dungy's three years in Indianapolis. Conversely, Baltimore's Brian Billick, widely known for creating the Vikings' offense that has been so dominant for the past seven or eight years, won a Super Bowl in just his second season at the helm for the Ravens, and has watched his squad make the playoffs in three of his first five seasons. They're currently in the driver's seat to make it four for six for Billick, but we've yet to see the Ravens thrive offensively under Billick's guidance.

The Verdict: Too many weapons, and I'm not talking about the Ravens' defense. Manning will have to wait another week, as he'll throw for just one score against the Ravens, but James will have a big day as the Ravens spread out to prevent Peyton from doing much damage. Mark Edge down for two scores and Vanderjagt down for three field goals, as the Colts continue their amazing scoring run and put up 30 on the Ravens. Colts 30, Ravens 20

Lock of the Week: New England over Miami

I give up. The last two Monday Night games have been extremely competitive, but they haven't meant a whole lot. This one won't mean much either, and you can cut the "extremely competitive" part out. Even if the Patriots played like a team that realized that it's clinched its division title, they'd still smoke them, but Bill Belichik will use the old "you're only as good as your last game" cliche to motivate the Pats as usual. Patriots 34, Dolphins 3

Upset Special: Carolina over Atlanta

The Panthers continue to take advantage of their renewed life with five straight wins over teams that are below .500. Though they'll have to take on a Falcons' squad that's well above the high-water mark, they'll use this momentum and the fact that they suddenly control their own destiny to pound Mike Vick into submission. Panthers 20, Falcons 17

And now, as I wonder if the St. Louis Cardinals are going to do anything this offseason, let's take a look at the rest...

Pittsburgh at New York Giants - Everyone says that Eli Manning won't turn into Ryan Leaf, but they've forgotten who he just might turn into... Tim Couch. While that other Manning was the one who didn't flop in 1998, Ben Roethlisberger has taken the Manning mystique out of the 2004 draft. Steelers 27, G-Men -6

Washington at San Francisco - Despite the 49ers 31-point outburst against the Cardinals (for the second time this year), expect a return to normalcy for San Fran this week. Washington is also enjoying a renaissance, having scored 45 points in the past two weeks, and may see that trend continue. Redskins 19, 49ers 0

Dallas at Philadelphia - Henson? Testaverde? It doesn't seem to matter unless the Cowgirls are playing a team that's willing to choke it away. Thankfully for the Eagles, it's not time for the NFC Championship game... yet. Eagles 34, Cowgirls 13

Houston at Chicago - Just when you think you have the Texans figured out, they return to being a stable team that actually hangs with the Colts for three and a half quarters. They seem to alternate playing really well and really poorly in two-week spurts, and this would be the second of two weeks where they play well. The Bears continue to display a horrid example of an NFL offense. Texans 27, Bears 10

Buffalo at Cincinnati - Had the Bengals come through with our upset special last week, this would have been our GOTW, pitting two of the five hottest teams in the league against one another with a possible playoff spot on the line. As it stands, the Bills remain red hot, and the Bengals are still playing extremely well, but coming off of a loss that pretty much devastated their playoff hopes. Expect the Bills to take advantage of a demoralized Carson Palmer and continue their charge towards the playoffs. Bills 27, Bengals 24

San Diego at Cleveland - I couldn't pay a bum $20 to watch this game. Unfortunately for the Brownies, they got a late start in their race for the #1 pick. Bolts 37, Browns 17

Minnesota at Detroit - After a recent three-game skid, the Lions were just the cure the Vikes needed. After their current two-game skid, Detroit should provide them with yet another easy victory to try and get back on track. Vikings 24, Lions 20

Denver at Kansas City - After struggling to victory against the Dolphins, the Broncos are starting to look like they may end up on the outside looking in when all's said and done. Dick Vermeil and the Chiefs will help Denver continue to slide and avenge the season-opening loss that sent them skidding downhill. Chiefs 37, Broncos 34

Seattle at New York Jets - Better draft pick: Marcus Tubbs (of lard) or Michael Boulware? Boulware has cemented Seattle's last two wins with two of his team-high five interceptions, while Tubbs accounted for all of 9.5 tackles and a sack. Way to clog up that middle! Despite winning Choke Bowl 2004 last week, the Mike Holmgren era is finally nearing its end. If the 'Hawks D couldn't stop Julius Jones once in 30+ carries, they don't have a chance against Curtis Martin. p.s., could it be working? The Hawks actually finally came to play when we picked against them last week! J-E-T-S 27, Seagulls 23

St. Louis at Arizona - True story. Midway through the first quarter of the Lambs-Panthers game last week, I asked one of the patrons at my bar how the game was going. He said Chandler had thrown like six picks already. Little did he know how true that statement would be.... Cardinals 24, Lambs 17... and yes, nobody wants to win this division by default!

New Orleans at Tampa Bay Brian Griese lit up the Bolts' secondary for 392 yards last week. Just imagine the day he could have against the 'Aints. Bucs 31, 'Aints 24

Jacksonville at Green Bay - Yet another example of AFC supremacy is on the way. Brett Favre looked like he might have gotten back on track from the derailment in Philadelphia in the second half last week, but he'll have to look superb for 60 minutes to beat Jacksonville. I just don't see it happening. For the second straight week, Lord Byron won't need a fourth-quarter comeback. Jaguars 27, Packers 17

Tennessee at Oakland - Billy Volek proved on Monday night that he is indeed the best kept secret in football. If only Norv Turner had any kind of secret weapon to turn to, the Raiders might have been able to take advantage of down years from the Broncos and Chiefs and compete. Volek and Drew Bennett won't hook up for three scores for the third straight week, but they will connect on at least one, as the Titans win a game with a score they're more accustomed to seeing. Titans 24, Raiders 17

The Numbers
On the Year: 121-75 (11-5)
Game of the Week: 6-7 (0-1)
Lock of the Week: 11-2 (1-0)
Upset Special: 6-7 (0-1)

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