No Coal Here
December 22, 2004
For some reason, everyone gets amped about the Thanksgiving games every year. I know, I know. Football and turkey are the two main things that many of us associate with that holiday, but let's take a serious look at what we have to deal with every fourth Thursday in November. The Cowardly Lions and the Cowgirls each play every year, and in recent seasons (though last year may have been somewhat of an exception for Dallas), that means we're watching at least one blowout. Thankfully for those of us who are football fans, the Cowgirls hosted Da Bears this November, meaning that one of the games featured two awful teams, and could at least have been competitive. In short, while I've always loved Thanksgiving because I can sit around in a tryptophan induced slumber and occassionally looked up at the meaningless blowout that's on TV, it always feels kind of like Santa left a lump of coal in my stocking.
The Christmas weekend this season, however, hands us as many as four games that would have been our Game of the Week throughout most of this season. This weekend, we'll all be privy to have the opportunity to watch three incredible divisional matchups, and one game between a pair of 11-3 teams that will battle it out for playoff positioning in the AFC. All but one (Baltimore) of the eight teams that will be squaring off in these matchups has seemingly ensured a playoff berth (though the Packers and Vikings have only done so because they're in the NFC), but there should be a lot of terrific football. As we've been guilty of some AFC bias for three of the past four weeks, we'll take the battle for the NFC North on as our Game of the Week.
Game of the Week: Green Bay at Minnesota
When the Packers have the ball: Ahman Green's fumble problems continued last week at home against Jacksonville, as he fumbled twice and lost one of them. With two weeks remaining, Green has already tied his career worst with seven fumbles, four of which the Packers have lost. There were, however, some positives. After looking sluggish in his first two weeks since returning from injury, Green took off for 94 yards on just 17 carries against a normally stout Jags run defense. He's had some big games against the Vikings in his career, and beat up on them for 145 yards on 21 carries in the first meeting, so he'll be a big part of the gameplan on Friday.
Brett Favre also had some success against the Vikings earlier this season, torching them for 236 yards and four touchdowns through the air. He's struggled against the Vikes in each of the last two seasons, though, with more interceptions than touchdowns in 2002-03 combined. We all know that Favre isn't quite the untouchable stud indoors that he is on the frozen tundra, as he has just a 56:40 touchdown to interception ratio indoors in his career, and his passer rating is about four points lower. With Robert Ferguson expected to be out, he'll need big efforts out of Javon Walker, Donald Driver, and Bubba Franks roaming around in the secondary.
Speaking of that Vikings secondary, it's hard to compare Favre's production against this team from either of the last two seasons to what it will be on Friday. After finishing second in the league with 28 interceptions a year ago, the Vikings' former ball-hawking style has all but disappeared this season. Through 14 games, Minnesota has amassed just nine picks (28th in the league). They don't really stop many people defensively, so their lack of turnover production could come back to haunt them in this one.
When the Vikings have the ball: Welcome to Team Turmoil. Here we are in Week 16 of the NFL season, and Minnesota still has yet to determine which of their running backs they want to use as the feature back. Onterrio Smith has been getting the call more often than not for most of the past two months, but has been ineffective the past few weeks, and they'll most likely turn to Michael Bennett (the original starter who lost his job to a knee injury) the rest of the way. Bennett will be the fourth back that they've started this season (Smith, Mewelde Moore, Moe Williams), and has homerun capabilities if he can find a way to explode through the line. He's arguably one of the four or five fastest players in the league, but a lot of the time he still looks like the back who didn't start playing football until he was in college.
As the running game is less than dependable, Minnesota will turn to what they've used all season to carry the offense... the aerial attack. Daunte Culpepper's got to be loving having a healthy Randy Moss back at the line, and should make good use of him against a Packers' squad that Moss has dominated throughout his career. Moss has averaged 101 yards and has scored 11 touchdowns in 12 games against the Packers in his career, and should take full advantage of his opportunity to shine as this game will be spotlighted as the only Friday game. He should open up some extra space for Nate Burleson, Marcus Robinson, and Jermaine Wiggins as the Pack should be doubling Moss all day long.
Special Teams: At least from a range standpoint, you've got to like Ryan Longwell over old man Morten Andersen in the kicking game. The Vikes have a more explosive return game with Nate Burleson, but it won't cancel out the difference in the place kickers.
Coaching/Intangibles: Mike Tice is in limbo, as he's reportedly looking for jobs while he waits for the ax to fall. It will probably fall, playoffs (which look likely thanks to how pitiful the NFC is) or not, and part of the reason that many will point to will be the horrific reverse pass call to Randy Moss in the closing minutes against Seattle two weeks ago. When Mike Sherman got the job in Green Bay, there was little fanfare. He was Mike Holmgren's offensive coordinator, for crying out loud, and Holmgren reportedly called a lot of his own plays. Over the past few seasons, he's proven us wrong time and time again, and continues to lead his team to the playoffs year in and year out... though Brett Favre probably has quite a bit to do with it. The Packers are in the Vikings head, as they've owned the division three years running, and they have a chance to close it out this week. The Vikes recently lost the "Choke Bowl" two weeks ago, and have a long recent history of December collapses. That said, the two teams have split the season series three years running, and the Packers won the first time they met.
The Verdict: Chokers no more? Well, that'll still be undetermined, but the Vikings will step up to the plate for once and win a crucial home game in December against the Packers, winning the NFC North title. Randy Moss will find the end zone twice, and Michael Bennett will get into the secondary a couple of times, while Brett Favre will throw a costly pick late as the Packers try to close within a score. Vikings 34, Packers 24
Lock of the Week: Buffalo at San Francisco
Once left for dead at 0-4, the Bills find themselves as eleven point favorites on the road as they look to continue their late season playoff push. Part of the reason? The NFC West, which Buffalo (along with most of the league) has absolutely pounded into submission. The Bills beat the NFC West's three best teams by an average of 24 points, and now they'll get a chance to face the worst team in football before they have a huge matchup with Pittsburgh next week. Don't expect them to look ahead, as they can't afford that luxury, and they'll blow out the Niners and clinch something for San Francisco... the number one pick. Bills 38, Niners 6
Upset Special: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Who was the only team to beat the Steelers this season? If you guessed the Ravens, you are absolutely, positively correct. With any chance of a return to the postseason on the line, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will rattle rookie sensation Ben Roethlisberger and force a couple of picks. An improved Kyle Boller will take advantage of the fact that the Steelers are stacking the line to stop Jamal Lewis, and the Ravens will win a nailbiter. Ravens 17, Steelers 13
And now, as we think about just how much we hate those darn crowds during Christmas shopping, let's have a look at the rest...
Oakland at Kansas City - The Raiders had an opportunity to show the world that they can hang in during a shootout last week, but they won't be able to toss out those same results twice. Kansas City's offense is every bit as good as it was last season, but their defense somehow found a way to regress from last year's horrific showing. They'll still have enough to pull this one out. Chiefs 37, Raiders 31
Denver at Tennessee - It's hard to look at a game and scream "Trap!" when they've lost three of their last four, but Denver should, indeed, be eliminated from playoff contention this week. Billy Volek's on fire lately, and will torch this defense, Champ Bailey or no. Titans 30, Broncos 27
Houston at Jacksonville - Although there are four 8-6 teams in the AFC right now, it's simple for the Jaguars. Win, and you're in. While no game in this league (well... maybe a game against the Niners) is a gimme, it'd be difficult to see them falling apart against Houston or Oakland with so much to gain. Expect Byron Leftwich to lead yet another methodical tight victory over Houston this week. Jaguars 23, Texans 20
Chicago at Detroit - Don't expect any botched PATs in this one, since the Lions probably won't manage to find the end zone. Come to think of it, neither will the Bears. Expect a safety by Chicago, but Joey Harrington will manage to lead one drive midway through the first quarter for a field goal attempt... and the snap will reach the holder. Lions 3, Bears 2
San Diego at Indianapolis - Peyton breaks the record (and then some) this week, as he'll muster at least three scores against San Diego. Drew Brees and LT will find plenty of ways to move the ball against a suddenly resurgent Colts defense, but they'll fall short as Edgerrin James shows that you can run against this San Diego defense and closes out the game. Colts 31, Chargers 27
Atlanta at New Orleans - The battle of the cousins will lose a lot of its luster, as Matt Schaub is likely to start for the playoff-bound Falcons. Aaron Brooks will still do his part to make this a shootout, and the Falcons won't be able to hang with them without Vick. 'Aints 27, Schaubs 17
New York Giants at Cincinnati - Eli just can't avoid (a bit of) the spotlight, can he? He starts out by facing the top two (by far) teams in the NFC, then faces arguably the three toughest defenses in the league, concluding with a matchup against this season's real rookie sensation, Ben Roethlisberger. What's up next? A matchup with last year's #1 overall draft pick, Carson Palmer (though Palmer may not play), and the high-flying Bungles' offense; also on the horizon, an eighth straight loss for the Giants (and sixth straight to start Manning's career). Does anyone know who's smiling right now? If you guessed the AFC West champion San Diego Chargers (who have New York's first round pick in 2005), you'd be right on the money! Bungles 30, G-Men 20
New England at New York Jets - Does anyone really care about Chad Pennington's media feud? After a lackluster effort on Monday night, don't expect the Patriots to come out and lay another egg in New Jersey on Sunday. Brady won't throw any picks, and Pennington will remain front page news in New York as he explodes after the loss. Pats 27, J-E-T-S 23
Arizona at Seattle - It pains me to do this, since you all know they're my team, and they certainly don't deserve to go to the playoffs, but the Seattle Seahawks will finally clinch the worst division in football... even if they do finish 8-8. Arizona looked really strong in crushing the lowly Lambs at home last week, but they've looked eerily similar to what the Seahawks looked like last year... a team that's only capable of winning at home. 'Hawks 37, Deadbirds 13
Carolina at Tampa Bay - From the "Sad But True" file: The Panthers and the Saints could both lose this week and still possibly play a winner-take-all game for a playoff spot if they're tied at 6-9 in Week 17. No worries, it won't actually happen, but it could. Panthers 24, Bucs 13
Washington at Dallas - Patrick Ramsey finally has the 'Skins offense clicking a bit, while Vinny Testaverde is becoming more and more famous towards the end of his career for what he did at the start of his career. His color-blindness is going to turn Bill Parcells' hair bleach blonde again soon, and the 'Skins will continue to build a bit of late-season confidence for a run at the playoffs next year. Redskins 17, Cowgirls 13
Cleveland at Miami - The battle for the #2 pick? One of these teams is going to finish 3-13, and it most certainly won't be the Dolphins. Jim Bates has done a tremendous job getting his team to compete since taking over for Dave Wannstedt, and the Mammals' management is now pushing to name his successor in Nick Saban. Look for the 'Fins to give him one heck of a sendoff, as they'll win two of their last three and play extremely competitive football in each of their last eight games. Mammals 27, Browns 10
Philadelphia at St. Louis - T.O., or no T.O.? That is the question. It won't matter this Monday night, as the Eagles still have one of the top two all-around QBs in the league, a solid rushing attack, and a tremendous pass defense. Marc Bulger is expected to be under center for the Lambs, so the over/under on interceptions for the Eagles drops to about four, but that should still be plenty. Eagles 23, Lambs 13
The Numbers
On the Year: 133-79 (12-4)
Game of the Week: 7-7 (1-0)
Lock of the Week: 11-3 (0-1)
Upset Special: 6-8 (0-1)
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Dec 22 at 9:17 PM
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