Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Third Time Pays for all in NFC

When NFL playoff action begins this wildcard weekend, we'll see nothing but rematches. In fact, this will make seven wildcard matchups in the past two years that we've already seen in the precluding regular season. While this does mean that there is a sense of familiarity for each team and their opponent, it doesn't always mean that we can expect the same results. Just last season, the Panthers and Colts rebounded from regular season losses to the Cowboys and Broncos to win their way through to the divisional playoffs, while the Seattle Seahawks lost a heartbreaker in overtime in the playoffs after getting absolutely dismantled by Green Bay during the regular season. Much has been said about how one team may be in the head of their opponents because of their victories earlier in the season (particularly in the NFC, where the Rams and Packers swept their wildcard opponents), but it certainly doesn't assure a victory when the game really means something.

The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings were just here two weeks ago, though that game was in Minneapolis. With a division title on the line, Green Bay went into the Metrodome and scored their second 34-31 last-second win over the Vikings, who would eventually back into the playoffs at 8-8. Though Green Bay won both matchups during the regular season, neither was overly convincing, and both games could have gone either way. Will they be able to finish Minnesota off late again? Will the Vikings show their propensity for choking when the season's on the line come back into play? Or will the Vikes finally show that they're ready to take that step to the next level?

Speaking of the Heimlich Maneuver, the Seattle Seahawks were absolutely rolling along 54 minutes into their Week 5 matchup with the St. Louis Rams. After starting out 3-0 and dominating each of their first three opponents, Seattle, many peoples' preseason pick to make it to Jacksonville, had a chance to take an absolute stranglehold on the NFC West with their 27-10 lead over the 2-2 Rams. Their season, however, was about to take an extreme turn for the worse. Marc Bulger suddenly went absolutely nuts, leading the Rams on two touchdown drives before leading one final charge for a late field goal to send the game into overtime. When Shaun McDonald beat former starting safety Terrell Bierria in OT, the Rams suddenly had life in the division... and the Seahawks never really seemed to recover. Though Seattle did eventually hold on with victories in their final two games to win the division at 9-7, they've shown virtually no heart in the season's final twelve weeks, and don't look anything like the team that so many picked to make a lot of noise. The Rams, like the Vikes, backed into the playoffs at 8-8, winning their final two games to get there. They'll have a lot of confidence entering their game in Seattle based on their come-from-behind win there earlier this year, as well as their home win later in the season. Will it be enough, or will Mike Holmgren finally get his troops to show they have the guts to finish on Saturday?

When the Jets took their show on the road to San Diego earlier this season, both were drastically different teams than they are now. The Jets started out extremely hot (5-0), including a 34-28 victory over the Chargers. The Bolts, fresh off of the worst record in football last year, were still in a state of disarray. Their top draft pick (well... the one they traded their pick for), Phillip Rivers, had held out for most of the preseason, meaning that supposed washout Drew Brees was starting for them. Little did they know how Brees would mature in his fourth season in the league back then. San Diego's loss to the Jets started them back on last season's path, as they would lose three of their next five. That, however, is when things started to change. The Bolts would rattle off eight straight after that 2-3 stretch, adding Keenan McCardell and watching Eric Parker, Drew Brees, and Antonio Gates emerge as stars along the way. New York would go on to lose six of their last eleven, but held on for a playoff spot.

The Broncos and Colts went through all of this last year, didn't they? Denver went into Indianapolis in Week Sixteen with their playoff backs to the wall and beat the Colts by two touchdowns, but the playoffs were drastically different. Led by Peyton Manning in a breakthrough playoff performance, the Colts scored on their first seven possessions on their way to a 41-10 rout. This season, the Broncos needed to win their final game of the season... at Indianapolis. They took advantage of a Colts' squad that benched most of their starters, including Manning and Edgerrin James, after less than a full offensive series and earned yet another rematch. Can they stop the Colts with their two best offensive players in the game? It's doubtful.

St. Louis at Seattle - St. Louis has won both matchups this season, and the past three overall, so they'll clearly feel like they can go into Seattle and come away with the victory. Whether the Seahawks will again choose to lie down and let them will probably be the key to the game. Like it or not Seagull bashers, the 'Hawks have, at times, looked like the team that many expected to win twelve or thirteen games this season... and they've looked that way (again, at times) in the past six weeks. There are plenty of other times (see their Monday night choke against Dallas or their 37-7 home loss to Buffalo) when they've looked like they've given up their will to live. Which team shows up (and for how long, as they've pulled some Dr. Jekkyl and Mr. Hyde performances seemingly by quarters of games, rather than games) is anyone's guess.

If the Seahawks decide they want to play a full sixty minutes, the fact that the Rams beat them twice in the regular season isn't going to mean squat. Even with an undermanned linebacking corps, Mike Martz is going to avoid using the ground game enough in the early-going to expose it, meaning that Seattle should jump out to yet another early lead, particularly with the expected forecast (possible snow = bad news for the "Greatest Show on Turf"). The windy and wet conditions will slow down the Rams' receivers, and Bulger will do the two things he does best.... rack up a fair amount of yardage and turn the ball over.

Even with all of the 24-hour turmoil created by Shaun Alexander's comments that Mike Holmgren "stabbed him in the back" looming a bit in the back of every Seahawks fans' mind, they'll be cheering him on this Saturday. Holmgren will finally realize that Alexander has rattled off an average of nearly eight yards a carry in each of the first two games with St. Louis. Seahawks fans will realize that Holmgren did cheat Alexander out of the rushing title, but not with his final decision to run a sneak with Hasselbeck last Sunday... he simply didn't use him enough all season long. Alexander will get 30 carries in the spotlight, and he'll make most of them count as he racks up close to 200 yards on the ground, while Matt Hasselbeck will manage a solid game and move the ball through the air on occasion. Should Seattle finally get the Rams out of their head, they may finally be the threat that they should have been all season long. Then again, they just might lay another egg. Seahawks 31, Lambs 10

Minnesota at Green Bay - Randy Moss pulled his very own Sammy Sosa imitation on the Vikings last Sunday, quitting on the team before the onside kick rolled helplessly into the Redskins' hands. Why shouldn't he, though? Almost nobody on that team has shown up for a big game in their life. When the Saints had beaten the Panthers a few minutes earlier, the Vikings playoff fate was already sealed... as much as they didn't want to make it for the second straight season, they were in, and they were headed back to the frozen tundra.

While the Lambeau magic hasn't been there for the Green Bay Packers much this season, it should finally make an appearance on Sunday night. Though the Vikes looked game against the Packers in each of their two previous meetings, you could just sense the whole game that the game would be won by whichever team would step it up at the end, and Minnesota has proven time and time again that they'll never step it up when it counts. This game should be an entirely different animal, though, as Minnesota will continue to let their struggles of the past (and past few weeks) haunt them. They shouldn't even pose much of a challenge.

Brett Favre will again show the heart of the warrior that he's been throughout his NFL career. Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport will both run all over the Vikings front seven. Daunte Culpepper will try and lead his team back into the game, but find that he's all alone once again, and the Packers will move on to face Atlanta. Packers 27, Vikings 13

Denver at Indianapolis - Oh, what a difference a week makes. That's what the Broncos will be saying after getting absolutely thrashed by the most dominant offense in football. After holding Jim Sorghi, Dominic Rhodes, and James Mungro to fourteen points last week, they'll give up at least thirty to Peyton, Edge, and the starters. Manning will go for 300 and four scores (all to different receivers), Edge will go for 150 for the second straight postseason against the Broncos, and the Colts will find a way to stop the Broncos' rushing attack. With Jake Plummer attempting to lead the charge, he'll find more ways to help the Colts pull away than keep the Broncos in it. Colts 38, Broncos 20

New York Jets at San Diego - When the Jets went into San Diego earlier this season, they were able to take advantage of some opportunities down the field. In fact, several teams have taken advantage of the Bolts down the field, as that may be their biggest weakness defensively. This will pose more of a problem for the Jets than a solution, though. Chad Pennington just doesn't seem to have the arm strength right now that he did before he missed a few weeks due to injury, and they won't really be able to take advantage of the home-run ball. Curtis Martin will have to try and carry the Jets if they want to move on to Pittsburgh, but the Bolts are incredibly stout against the run.

The Chargers will take advantage of an extremely balanced offense on their way to victory this week. Drew Brees will spread the ball around well between Gates, McCardell, Parker, and Ladainian Tomlinson, while LT will rack up 100+ on the ground for the Chargers first playoff win in a decade. The two biggest losses we'll have from the NFL playoffs will be soundbites from Herman Edwards and Chad Pennington, because the J-E-T-S aren't going anywhere. Bolts 34, Jets 17

The (Final) Numbers
On the Year: 152-84 (9-7)
Game of the Week: 7-8 (0-0)
Lock of the Week: 12-4 (0-1)
Upset Special: 7-9 (1-0)

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