Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

Manning vs. Belichik XI

Game of the Week: Indianapolis at New England

It's almost a shame that there will be three other football games this weekend. Although all four of the games this weekend should be hotly contested, and every single one of them is a do or die situation, it's going to be hard to focus on the first three games of the weekend when we all know that the NFL's highest-flying offense is going to be facing the most innovative defensive football coach of our time in Sunday's late game.

Nobody wants to seem to let Peyton Manning forget his past failures in New England. Manning has gone 3-7 against Bill Belichik coached teams throughout his career (part of which was spent in the AFC East as the Pats' division rival), including an 0-6 record in Foxboro. The two-time defending MVP will have history battling against him as he leads his audibling no-huddle offense into Massachussets on Sunday afternoon, but none of that should really mean anything.

For one thing, this is not the same Colts' offense that we've seen the past couple of seasons. For the first time in three seasons, Edgerrin James looked like the back who shot out of the gate in his rookie season and showed the Colts that they made the right move by trading Marshall Faulk prior to the 1999 draft. With a QB like Manning calling the signals and constantly hitting his receivers perfectly, James hasn't had to carry this team at all this season. What he has done, though, is given this formerly pass-happy offense the ability to rely on the ground game when they have to. Everyone knows that Belichik will find a way, even with his top two corners done for the year, to at least contain Manning, so James is going to have to play a huge role for the Colts to pull this out. He'll show on Sunday night that he's more than capable.

The biggest difference with the Patriots in comparison to last year's AFC Championship game is a running back, too. During their two tremendous Super Bowl runs in the last three seasons, New England has had to rely on a short-passing game as its primary ground game, with Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk as their primary backs. Corey Dillon has been this team's MVP all season long, though, rushing for 1,635 yards in fifteen games and averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Had the Patriots had Dillon in their backfield for the past three seasons, we'd probably be talking about the three-time defending Super Bowl champions instead of a team that's won two in three years. He's taken the pressure off of Tom Brady, who still spreads the ball around incredibly well, and given them the ability to pound away at their opponents' defensive line when they have a late lead.

Both backs had tremendous outings when the teams met up in the first game of the season, with James carrying 30 times (his second highest total on the season) for 142 yards and Dillon going for 86 yards on just 15 carries. Neither found the end zone, though James fumbled twice in the red zone. In fact, turnovers (in particular, red-zone turnovers) were the entire story of the Colts and Patriots first matchup this season. New England turned the ball over twice themselves (and interception by Brady and a muffed punt by Deion Branch), but the Colts lost the ball three times inside the twenty... twice when James coughed the ball up and once when Manning was intercepted inside the Pats' ten yard line. If Indy had avoided the fundamental mistakes, that game was theirs' to lose.

So what can we expect this week? More of the same. Tony Dungy will give the Pats' front seven a healthy dose of Edgerrin James early in an effort to force Belichik's defense to come out of the shell he'll create. Belichik loves to take away his opponents' strength, and that means he'll focus predominantly on the passing game. Unfortunately for Belichik and the Pats, he'll find that the Colts' running game is just as capable of overpowering them. Once New England has to start stacking the line a bit more, Manning will take advantage of the Patriots' undermanned secondary. Expect Brandon Stokely to have a big day from the slot, while Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne won't have great statistical weeks.

New England will be able to put some points on the board as well. Dillon will have to have a big day against the Colts' speedy defenders in order to keep the ball away from Manning and Co. and give Brady some time when he drops back to pass. The Colts will create a turnover or two, though, and their so-called jinx in New England will be over and done with. I'm of the opinion that whoever wins this game will win the Super Bowl in Jacksonville, as no teams in the league (sorry Steelers) have quite the firepower that's necessary to shut them down. Colts 34, Patriots 23

New York Jets at Pittsburgh - Chad Pennington showed that he's still got a little juice left in his arm in last weekend's game in San Diego, but can he be good enough this week to open up some space for the running game? Pittsburgh handled the Jets extremely well defensively when the two met earlier in the season, limiting Curtis Martin to three yards a carry and intercepting Pennington three times in a 17-6 victory. That said, the Jets did account for 296 total yards to the Steelers' 262. Pennington won't have to be perfect in the rematch, but he'll certainly need to look more like the QB who torched the Bolts for 279 and two scores last week than he did a little over a month ago in Pittsburgh.

Ben Roethlisberger had arguably his worst day as a professional against the Jets' Cover-2 scheme in their first meeting as well, so there is some hope for Jets fans. Roethlisberger, who will start Saturday after missing most of the last two games, was just 9 of 19 for 144 yards. He was also picked twice and sacked twice. The Steelers' running game was typically effective against the Jets, as Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley combined to rack up 108 yards on 26 carries. They'll use another heavy dose of the running game this week, constantly pounding the Jets line, which could be in a lot of trouble if FA-to-be John Abraham decides to sit another game out because he's afraid he could cost himself his payday by compounding his knee injury.

Pittsburgh should use their methodical running game to keep the ball out of Pennington and Martin's hands for much of the game. Pennington will try and force a couple of balls in and turn it over a couple of times. The Bus won't throw another touchdown pass like he did when the teams met earlier this year, but Big Ben will, and the Steelers will roll on to host the Colts in next week's AFC title game. Steelers 20, J-E-T-S 10

St. Louis at Atlanta - Mike Vick remains the hardest player in pro football to prepare for, and the Rams can vouch for that personally. Vick ran for 109 yards on 12 carries when the two teams met in Atlanta earlier this season, while the Falcons other members of the self-proclaimed DVD trio (Dunn, Vick, Duckett) also each rushed for more yardage than the Rams put up on the ground. This is, however, a slightly different Rams' running game now.

Steven Jackson has begun to take the reins from Marshall Faulk in St. Louis, and will be asked to carry at least half the load as St. Louis will try to establish a bit of a power-running game to open up what Mike Martz' freakshow passing game likes to do.... throw the ball downfield non-stop. Jackson, St. Louis' first-round draft pick was key in two of St. Louis' wins down the stretch to get into the playoffs, and split carries with the veteran future Hall-of-Famer Faulk last weekend. Martz will then have to hope that Marc Bulger can keep from turning the ball over against a blitz-happy Falcons defense that put him on the ground five times, forced a pick, and forced the most bizarre attempted challenge of all-time on a fumble/interception in the Rams' own end zone.

Atlanta's offense will do what everyone expects them to. Run, run, and run the ball some more. St. Louis has been unbelievably weak against the run, despite limiting an injured Shaun Alexander to just 40 yards on 15 carries last week. They won't be able to find a way to contain two quality backs in Dunn and Duckett, and they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of keeping Vick from running around in their secondary if he wants to. Vick will throw a pass or ten, but it really shouldn't be that necessary. Falcons 31, Rams 20

Vikings at Eagles - OK, OK. When the Vikings won last Sunday, I was depressed. Why? Do I like the Packers or something? Well.. you have to respect Brett Favre, but no... that's not it. By winning in the playoffs while the Seahawks blew yet another golden opportunity against the Lambs, the Vikings can now officially say that they're no longer the biggest chokers in football.... that title belongs solely in Seattle.

That said, can the Vikings put forth another flawless effort in Philly this week? It's doubtful. Everyone thinks the Eagles are incredibly vulnerable because T.O. is out, but they have gone to three straight NFC title games without him, and they're about to go to their fourth (whether they can finally win when they get there is a question for next week). They won't be throwing that practice squad that finished the year against the Lambs and Bungles out on the field, and Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook will show once again that the Eagles are still one of the better offenses in football. Of course, facing the Vikes porous defense should only help them in this one.

What this game will come down to, however, isn't the best QB in the leauge not named Peyton Manning (many would argue that it might be Culpepper, but in my mind it's clearly McNabb). It won't come down to the Vikings running back by committee, and it won't come down to Westbrook. What it will come down to is the Vikings high-powered passing game, led by Culpepper and Randy Moss, against the Eagles' incredible pass-defense. Jevon Kearse will keep Culpepper moving around in the pocket, and he won't have nearly enough time to look for Moss downfield. Furthermore, the Eagles corners and (perhaps more importantly) pair of Pro-Bowl safeties won't let Minnesota beat them with the deep ball. Philly will put the hurt on the Vikes, meaning that there will be even more speculation in Green Bay about whether or not the latest Packer era is done. Eagles 34, Vikings 17

The Numbers
Playoffs: 1-3
Final Regular Season Record: 152-84
Game of the Week: 7-8
Lock of the Week: 12-4
Upset Special: 7-9

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