Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

The Matchup We've Been Waiting Four Years For

When the Eagles and Patriots won their respective conference title games, it set up a matchup that certainly wouldn't have surprised too many experts in the preseason. They have, after all, made it to seven conference championship games in the past four years combined (only the Patriots missed in the 2002-03 season). While the Eagles failed to win that game the first three times, they've clearly been the class of the NFC over the past five seasons. Just ask the Buffalo Bills of the early 1990's (though their problem was with the Super Bowl). You don't make it to four straight title games by being average, and most GMs would take Donovan McNabb right up there with any QB in the league.

Under the current Belichick/Weis/Crennel regime, the Patriots have been anything but average themselves. New England's magical run began in 2001, when they would emerge from an absolutely horrific 0-2 start (seriously... how many of you would have guessed they started the season with a 23-17 loss to the lowly Bungles) when former franchise QB Drew Bledsoe went down to injury. Tom Brady took over in Week Three, and the rest, as they say, is history. They would go on to beat the Rams (a game that these annoying Lambs fans in St. Louis still protest was rigged to this very day) to win their first Super Bowl. Brady's legacy continues to grow, though he's still just a pup by NFL standards. In four years at the helm of the Pats' offense, Brady has won two Super Bowl MVPs while going 8-0 in the playoffs.

However, though their offenses and field generals are phenomenal, the trademark of both the Patriots and Eagles would have to be their punishing defensive play. With the exception of that 2002 Patriots team, neither the Eagles or Patriots have finished lower than 7th in the league in scoring defense since that 2001 season.

Everybody knows how terrific a defensive head coach Belichick is, and most know how great Romeo Crennel is as a defensive coordinator. Together, the two have pieced together an amazing linebacking core that features Tedy Bruschi (the ultimate football name!), Mike Vrabel, Roosevelt Colvin, and Willie McGinest. Though none get quite the accolades that they deserve because none of them have to dominate by themselves, they've proven this postseason that they're every bit as important as All-World corner Ty Law. With a patchwork secondary that's missing it's top two corners, the Patriots' defense has shut everyone they've faced down.... and that's not just because of the guys calling the plays.

Speaking of secondaries, though, Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has done his best job ever this season. Sure... he's lost a couple of other big stars in the past (three time Pro Bowl DT Hugh Douglas, two time Pro Bowl MLB Jeremiah Trotter, who has returned), but this season the Eagles headed into camp without their top two corners (a combined five Pro Bowl appearances themselves) in Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent. Johnson's heavy blitzing style still led the team to the twelfth best overall pass defense in the league, and third in scoring both against the pass and overall. It's a shame that Johnson, like the Pats' coordinators (who will each finally get the accolades they deserved this offseason), has yet to get a head coaching job.

Speaking of coordinators who took head coaching jobs.... Would anyone like to ask that top-ranked Steeler defense if Charlie Weis is focusing too much on the Notre Dame job and not paying attention to what the Patriots' offense needs to do to win their third Super Bowl in four years? I didn't think so.

Super Bowl XXXIX: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

When the Eagles have the ball: The Eagles should present a tougher challenge for Belichick and Crennel's defense than they've seen from any of the QBs that they've faced during their previous Super Bowl runs.... a QB who's capable of moving the pocket and scrambling when necessary. Donovan McNabb has worked hard over his career to become a strong pocket passer, and this year's results show just how far he's come. However, he's still a threat whether he's sitting in the pocket with perfect protection or on the run. He'll need to use his legs for Philly to come through with their first NFL title since the pre-Super Bowl era (1960).

The other big key, T.O. or no T.O., will be Brian Westbrook. Westbrook will create some huge potential matchup problems for that devastating linebacking core that the Patriots have. He's reminiscent of a Marshall Faulk (in his prime) type of back in that he can both pound away at the line, beat you to the corner, and even split out wide. If Owens is truly healthy and returns to being option number 1 for McNabb, Westbrook will be 1a.

As for Owens, he wants to make this game (and the entire week leading up to it) his personal playground. He wants all of the focus on him in the hopes that the Patriots focus too much attention on him rather than finding ways to contain McNabb and Westbrook. Owens won't be 100%. He won't be able to make the cuts that he usually does. He will primarily be a decoy, though it's safe to expect him to catch about five balls on Sunday. It's extremely doubtful that a team as intelligent as the Patriots have been over their recent run would fall for his antics, so you can be sure they're prepping more for McNabb and Westbrook.

When the Patriots have the ball: In order for the Patriots to win their third Super Bowl in four years, Tom Brady must not be the MVP of this game. Though the Eagles' run defense has certainly stepped it up quite a bit since they put Jeremiah Trotter in as the starting MLB, that's still their weakness. While Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown certainly aren't Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, Philadelphia is still amazing against the pass. Part of the reason would be the consistent Pro Bowl level that safeties Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins play at, though their heavy blitzing scheme is probably even more important.

For the Patriots to control this game, they must do what Belichick's old boss did to win his last Super Bowl.... pound away at Philly's defensive line and control the clock. With Philadelphia trying to create pocket pressure from all over the field, there should be plenty of holes for Corey Dillon to find. Dillon should be huge in this game as he takes off for a couple of long runs and tires out the Eagles defensive front with his pounding style. This should create a little more time for Brady at the line and in the pocket, and we've all seen what he can do when he's not constantly under pressure. If Dillon gets 25 carries and/or runs for 120+ yards, there's no way the Patriots lose.

As for the passing game, it certainly won't completely disappear. Brady has led the team on two magical Super Bowl runs in the past three years without a legitimate feature back, and he'll find ways to exploit the Eagles' secondary. The protection at the line will hold up well enough, and Brady will hit Deion Branch and David Givens with a long strike over the top each. As long as Brady doesn't turn the ball over, the Pats should be in good shape.

Special Teams: Adam Vinatieri has won two of the last three Super Bowls on last second field goals. For once, though, the Patriots don't have a big edge in special teams. David Akers has been the best long range kicker in football for the past few seasons now, and he's not afraid of a little pressure himself (see last year's game with Green Bay). For the Eagles to truly win any special teams faceoff against the Patriots, Brian Westbrook would have to take back over as the return man, but both units should be extremely fundamentally sound. I wouldn't bet against either kicker burying a last-second game-winning field goal.

Coaching/Intangibles: I've never heard the word "genius" used more to describe a coach in any sport than Bill Belichick. Belichick has created a team in his image that is supremely confident that they'll win every battle they have to and knows that someone will step up behind them if they can't make a play. As always, the Pats will be introduced as a team, and there's no better example in all of pro sports than they are for that word.... Andy Reid has certainly earned his stripes, himself. Reid took over a bottom of the barrell team and transformed them into a consistent winner in just a couple of years. With four NFC Championship games in four years to his credit, he's established a proven system that helps all of his players gel on the field. It's difficult not to give the coaching edge to Belichick, but Reid is right there with him.... The Patriots know what it takes to win at this level, while the Eagles have been trying to get to this level for four years. That doesn't, however, mean that the Eagles lack the confidence to pull this one off.

The Verdict: If New England plays the game that they played against the Rams a few years ago, they lose. If they play the game they played against the Panthers last year, they get beaten soundly. They won't! Corey Dillon will control the clock and go for two scores. Donovan McNabb won't try to move the pocket quite enough to keep the Pats from creating pressure (and at least one turnover). Terrell Owens will be a non-factor, and the Patriots will find a way to shut Brian Westbrook down. The Patriots will witness the end of an era (of sorts) as Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel leave Bill Belichick alone to see if the Pats can go for a three-peat. Patriots 27, Eagles 17.... MVP: Corey Dillon

It's been another great year writing this column for you guys, and I'm looking forward to another fun season next year. We'll have our preseason baseball predictions posted here some time during Spring Training, but then the column will be on hiatus until we do our NFL preseason warmup in August.

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