Esteban Loaiza, the 2004 reverse sleeper...

Posts: 885 · Posted: Mar 08, 2004 12:20 am

Ok, let me preface this by saying I was choked to watch Loaiza pitch the way he did in 2003 after watching him drag his ass to a 25-28 record with a +5.00 ERA in two and a half years in Toronto. But honestly, if you got this guy in a draft I say move him now before he has a chance to pitch and show what he's really made of.

Does anyone really believe that the Loaiza of 2003 is the real Esteban Loaiza? I watched him pitch close to 75 games for Toronto and he always seemed to lose interest late in the game/season. I don't know what got him going in 2003 but I want to go on record right now as saying this guy may very well be the biggest fantasy bust of 2004.

His career ERA is 4.58 and that's after 10 years and 269 games, a pretty good sample size. I'm sure someone has and example of a pitcher who didn't start winning until he was 33 years old but I say this guy doesn't have the heart to repeat and his performance in September of last season, when he was neck and neck with Halladay for the Cy Young, proves it.

Thank you for your time...

Posts: 1836 · Posted: Mar 08, 2004 12:41 am

While I could show you some of Jamie Moyer's stats, who really seemed to get it once he turned 35, I'll bring up a pitcher who I feel is a lot more like Loaiza.... Kent Bottenfield

Bottenfield was as ho-hum as it got until he was 31 with the Cardinals, pitching five extremely mediocre seasons switching back and forth between the 'pen and a revolving door starting gig. That is, he did this until 1999, when he was the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals staff, going 18-7 with a 3.97 ERA. While his WHIP and strikeout numbers weren't comparable to what Loaiza did last season by any means, Bottenfield is a pitcher who emerged from the shadows for a year.

He was then traded (along with Adam Kennedy) to the Anaheim Angels for Jim Edmonds. Bottenfield struggled with the Angels before they dealt him to the Phillies midway through the season... he didn't get much better in Philadelphia, and his combined 2000 stats looked an awful lot like this: 8-10, 5.40 ERA. The Astros went a little nutso and signed him, hoping he could recapture his magic, but he lasted all of 52 innings for them with an ERA over 6. He hasn't been back to the big leagues since, though I believe he's still on the Astros payroll.

Do I expect Bottenfield-esque disappointment for Loaiza this year? Honestly, he won't be that bad, and I think that the cutter he developed had quite a bit to do with how well he did last season. Will he even come close to duplicating last season's numbers? Hell no. If you're drafting Loaiza, hope for something like this: 4.20 ERA, 12-15 wins, 150 K, 1.30 WHIP. That's average across the board, and that's really as good as Loaiza is. I don't think he'll sink back to the ERA which (I believe) was pretty much right at 5.00 entering last season, though.

As for some pitchers who finally got it late? Schilling, Johnson, Schmidt... these guys were all in the league for quite a while before they turned into the dominating forces they are now, but they all finally got it around age 30.

Posts: 51 · FIC Starter Joined: 24 Apr 2003 Posts: 51

I don't know anything about the stats involved with Loaiza, but I do know that all of last year everything I read about Loaiza said he wasn't that good and there is no way he will sustain his performance. Well, he proved everyone wrong and I took a chance on drafting him this year.

I'm not banking on him to have as good of a year as he did last year, but if he drops in the draft because of the naysayers then I would pick him up. I don't believe he will be a bust.

Posts: 885 · Posted: Mar 08, 2004 1:17 pm

Well it's his stats the proved the naysayers right last year. The only real surprise is that it took until September for Loaiza to return to form. I wish I'd had him on my fantasy squad through August of 2003. But I am still certain he will be a huge bust this year.

None of the pitchers Jim listed, Schilling, Johnson or Schmidt were ever as bad at Loaiza before they broke through. Watch for Loaiza to lose interest again and with it his ability to throw strikes and win games.

Posts: 1419 · Posted: Mar 18, 2004 1:10 pm

I want you guys to look at all of loaiza's individual games last year. if you look at the games that he lost, you will find that a couple were 1 - 0 shutouts against detroit, meaning that if the sox had any support for him his record would be 23 - 7. he lost a couple 2 - 3 ballgames against minnesota, in which he gave up 1 earned run and got no run support. another game against arizona 2 - 1, another solid performance ruined by lack of run support. so that bumps his record up to 25 - 5. with a record like that, people would not look at loaiza like a one hit wonder, and put him in the elite class of pitchers, where he PROVED he belongs. I am sick and tired of people talking about loaiza like he is a fraud pitcher, a fluke, only to be shelled by hitters who magically figure out how to hit a cy young runner up from last season. the guy learned how to throw a cut fastball, and he used it well. this year he is mixing up his pitches, he is in the same shape as last year, and he is playing to get resigned. remember cy young stud roy halladay had to be shipped down in 2000 to work on his delivery, and now people think he is a phenom, which he is, but because another pitcher worked on his delivery, added a pitch to his arsenal, a pitch he throws very well I might add, people think he is the equivalent of an 80's new wave band that has one video on MTV and fades away. I think it is ridiculous that loaiza is being treated this way, and he should get credit for his stellar performance last year. I have seen or heard no signs of loaiza letting up this year, and I predict he will continue his success from last year, this time with a better team playing around him.

Posts: 885 · Posted: Mar 18, 2004 2:36 pm

Well, this discussion is all about bias. He was a lump for my team and a cy young runner up for yours. But since we are talking fantasy baseball here, where would you draft Loaiza?

Would you take him before Schilling? How about Pedro, Johnson, Wood, Vazquez, or Mussina? All of whom were outperformed in 2003 by Loaiza.

2003 was an anomaly and 2004 will look more like the 5.71 ERA 2002 when Loaiza is on the mound.

Posts: 84 · FIC Starter Joined: 02 Jul 2003 Location: Jersey Posts: 84

I think the fact that he could be such a bust makes him a real candidate for a draft steal. he is being taken anywhere from 70-100 (on average), and think about it, if he even comes close to his numbers last year he will be a huge steal. the fact that everyone is so worried about him screwing up makes him a nice pick he if does well. then again, he could screw up. you never know.

Posted: Mar 31, 2004 2:57 am

I doubt Loaiza will fall off very badly. Certainly dont expect the numbers from last year, but I think he'll keep a sub 4 era and be a solid no.2 or 3 starter. He just pitched so well the whole year that I think he figured it out and won't be as bad a pitcher as he was previously. His strikeout ratio also got much better last year. I'm thinking 13-15 wins, 3.50 era, 1.25 whip

Posts: 1836 · Posted: Mar 31, 2004 3:38 am

YankeeFan13 wrote:

I think it is ridiculous that loaiza is being treated this way, and he should get credit for his stellar performance last year.

Sheesh... like 13 days ago, and I just caught this thread being back in use. There's really no type of treatment here at all. Loaiza had a phenomenal season... sure. Does it mean his draft stock rises quite a bit from the "don't even dream of drafting him unless you're in a 25 team AL-Only league" category it was in prior to last season? Absolutely! However, that's all we have to talk about here, stats and fantasy value. Loaiza's career path shows nothing to indicate that he'll be nearly as successful as he was last season.

Yes, he learned to throw a cutter, and he threw it very well. So did Woody Williams nearly two and a half years ago when he joined the Cardinals, and he turned in his best season and a half of his career. While many look at his 18 wins and think last season was his best year, they're missing the boat. That said, he watched his ERA rise almost a point and a half last season, despite still having that cutter that led to an amazing year and a half run. Is Loaiza quite as old as Woody? No, but Woody was a lot more successful earlier in his career. Just another example.

Care for another example? How about John Burkett? Here's his ERA in each of the last nine seasons: 4.30, 4.25, 4.56, 5.68, 5.62, 4.89, 3.04, 4.53, 5.15. But yeah... he finally got it in 2001 with the Braves. At least that's what a couple of hundred people tried to tell me. I laughed and let them draft him. He followed it up with a jump from 3.04 to 4.53 in 2002 and had an ERA over 5 again last year. In fact, despite all those gaudy, disgusting ERA totals that I just showed you, I'd be happy to let you know that his career ERA (4.31) is still better than our boy Esteban Loaiza's (4.58).

The fact of the matter is, this site focuses primarily on fantasy sports, meaning that (particularly in draft season) we need to point out the potential sleepers and the potential busts. Am I saying not to draft Loaiza? I'm certainly suggesting that I don't think you should, but that decision is yours. I'm just pointing out the facts, and until Loaiza really proves that last year wasn't a one-hit wonder, I'd still advise anyone against picking him up, particularly as high as many think he should be drafted.

Posts: 5324 · Posted: Mar 31, 2004 9:05 am

I stayed the hell away from Loaiza in all 5 of my drafts, perferring to "steal" Oswalt and Matt Morris around the times Loaiza was being taken.

Posts: 885 · Posted: Mar 31, 2004 11:40 am

Loaiza's biggest contribution to this year's fantasy draft is when he is autodrafted in the third round by someone who didn't show up or pre-draft, letting a legit third rounder drop to the fourth round for those of us who are present.

Posts: 5324 · Posted: Mar 31, 2004 11:54 am

LexLimo wrote:

Loaiza's biggest contribution to this year's fantasy draft is when he is autodrafted in the third round by someone who didn't show up or pre-draft, letting a legit third rounder drop to the fourth round for those of us who are present.

You said it!!!!

Posts: 1419 · Posted: Mar 31, 2004 5:01 pm

all speculation until the show starts anyway, we shall see boys, we shall see...