Prospect Alert: The Path to ROY

Posts: 4543 · Posted: Mar 11, 2005 8:13 pm

Prospect Alert: The Path to ROY

Welcome back to another season of “Prospect Alert.” It’s been awhile since our latest update, but things should start kicking...

Posts: 7883 · AiNoKeA Joined: 15 Feb 2005 Location: All Ova Posts: 7883

Good article...There are some guys in here that I almost forgot about.

Posts: 1021 · Posted: Mar 11, 2005 10:04 pm

I would move Kazmir way up on there, Also even though he is pitching in Coors I would maybe put francis on there, hes an awesome pitcher who could be dominant if he got out of Colorado. One question-Is David Wright considered a rookie this year, if so then he is the front runner by a mile

Posts: 1581 · Posted: Mar 11, 2005 10:36 pm

TheRealDeal wrote:

Good article...There are some guys in here that I almost forgot about.

Thanks. Always appreciate the feedback.

Teixiera's Homers wrote:

I would move Kazmir way up on there, Also even though he is pitching in Coors I would maybe put francis on there, hes an awesome pitcher who could be dominant if he got out of Colorado. One question-Is David Wright considered a rookie this year, if so then he is the front runner by a mile

Wright is not rookie eligible. The cutoff is 130 at-bats in the bigs, and Wright had 263 last year.

As for Francis, I like him as much as any pitcher on the list, talent-wise. Unfortunately, he's in Colorado and that bumps him just off the list.

Here's a little bit of an elaboration on why I ranked Kazmir where I did:

Kazmir could be dominant, but there's too many questions for me to rank him any higher. First, as I mention at the start of the article, pitchers have a must more difficult time jumping into the majors as difference-makers. Thus, I typically rank young hitters quite a bit higher in terms of initial impact. Second, there are a number of questions about Kazmir specifically. His mechanics need work, and along with that, he walks way too many batters to be considered a consistent option. Those walks will hurt him this year. He's only 21, and he has a bright future ahead of him, but he's still a bit young. Give him some time. I'm also concerned about his durability; I'm not sure he can stay healthy. Add all this up, and despite the high potential, I decided to rank him lower on the list; however, he is the second pitcher listed, so in that sense, he can't go much higher.

All that said, I don't want to give the wrong impression. I think Kazmir is a tremendous talent, but that he needs more time to develop to his fullest potential. A big part of that process will be improving his control. He could even take a huge leap forward this year, but I think the probability of that is too low to justify a higher ranking.

Thanks for the feedback.

Posts: 324 · FIC Veteran Joined: 17 Jan 2005 Posts: 324

Very nice article, thank you.

About Swisher, what's his outlook this year regarding playing time? Last I remember reading he was in a battle with Byrnes for at bats.

Posts: 1021 · Posted: Mar 12, 2005 12:55 am

brianM wrote:

Very nice article, thank you.

About Swisher, what's his outlook this year regarding playing time? Last I remember reading he was in a battle with Byrnes for at bats.

im pretty sure swisher will be starting in right while byrnes will be starting in left

Posts: 1581 · Posted: Mar 12, 2005 1:52 pm

brianM wrote:

Very nice article, thank you.

About Swisher, what's his outlook this year regarding playing time? Last I remember reading he was in a battle with Byrnes for at bats.

Thanks.

Swisher is currently slated to start in right, with Byrnes getting the nod in left. There have been trade rumors swirling around Byrnes, although many now believe he'll stick with the team. Bobby Kielty and Carlos Thomas will also be in the mix for at-bats at those spots, although Kielty been out with a strained calf.

Posts: 26 · FIC Rookie Joined: 04 Feb 2005 Posts: 26

Real helpful article......Do you think Kotchman will ever hit with enough power to be a great 1b in fantasy baseball?

Posts: 1581 · Posted: Mar 12, 2005 9:53 pm

marel wrote:

Real helpful article......Do you think Kotchman will ever hit with enough power to be a great 1b in fantasy baseball?

Thanks for the comments.

I think Kotchman has a chance to be a very productive fantasy option in the future. He's also such a pure, natural hitter that he could be a surprise this season. The one area of concern are injuries, which have been an obstacle in the past; however, most of his injuries are random, and aren't the type that turn into chronic problems.

As for the power, I believe it will come. Kotchman had 33 doubles and 8 homers in 313 minor league at-bats last season. That's a lot of doubles, and many of those should turn into homers in the future. I think that Kotchman has the potential to develop into a Mark Grace/Todd Helton mix, with a high average and moderate power. A fair guess would be 20-25 homers per year, with a .300+ average. That's not quite as much power as most top first basemen, but the high average will boost his value.

Posts: 1379 · Posted: Mar 13, 2005 1:23 am

Richie, great article. Just one question...

Is it just me or does this rookie class (or at least the players you highlighted) for the upcoming season seem awfully weak, as compared to years past?

Posts: 1581 · Posted: Mar 13, 2005 12:08 pm

baseball freak wrote:

Richie, great article. Just one question...

Is it just me or does this rookie class (or at least the players you highlighted) for the upcoming season seem awfully weak, as compared to years past?

I think an argument could be made for that case. This year's class lacks a big-name prospect expected to bust out to a huge season. The guys at the top of the list could have decent years, but the expectations aren't very high. Another thing hindering this class is that the guys with the highest upside will likely take some time to develop and alleviate injury concerns. Kazmir, McPherson, and Kotchman all fall into this category.

Rookies are always tough to predict, but this year's class appears to be lacking, particularly in the short run.

Posts: 98 · FIC Starter Joined: 20 Mar 2005 Posts: 98

what do you think is realistic for david wright according to statistics.

Posts: 1021 · Posted: Mar 22, 2005 7:58 pm

anywhere around

25 HR, 85 R, 100 RBI, 15 SB, .325 avg

Posts: 1581 · Posted: Mar 23, 2005 11:09 pm

b-dawk20 wrote:

what do you think is realistic for david wright according to statistics.

I'll temper the expectations for Wright a bit. He got off to a somewhat slow start this spring, but began to pick things up as time passed. This year, expect something along the lines of .280-20-75-15, although it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him surpass those totals.