MLB Player News: [Alert: LOW] Rich Hill (SP), CHC

Posts: 4543 · Posted: Apr 24, 2007 10:10 pm

Baseball Player News: Rich Hill (SP), CHC
By: Jeff Brown

News: Rich Hill's string of shutout innings was stopped at 19.1 innings following Prince Fielder's two-run home run in the fourth inning Tuesday. Hill picked up his first loss of the season as the Cubs lost, 4-1, to the Brewers.

Views: Hill had been brilliant to start the season (3-0, 0.41 ERA, 0.68 WHIP), so he had to settle back toward the norm eventually. Hill allowed four runs on six hits and three walks over 6.2 innings. He did strike out five, but allowed home runs to Fielder and Kevin Mench.

Posts: 1315 · Posted: Apr 24, 2007 10:17 pm

What kind of season can we expect from Hill from here on out? He has been fantastic so far. Is he a good sell high canidate for someone to hold on to?

Posts: 6104 · Posted: Apr 24, 2007 10:24 pm

Well, he was pitching out of his mind to start the season, so his numbers should go back to reasonable level. He still should get 15 wins or so with a 3.50-ish ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He's susceptible to the home run (which he showed tonight), so if he starts giving them up again regularly, his numbers might inflate a little.

He probably had his highest value before tonight, but he didn't really stink it up badly tonight, so he should still have a lot of excess value. There's very little chance that his ERA remains very far below three, and it certainly won't remain below two. You might get someone to bite big.

Posts: 360 · Posted: Apr 25, 2007 1:21 am

Hes still gonna be worth holding on to, hes got a good arm and is only improving... Everyone slips up now and again. After all, Santana's ERA is almost 4. right now

Posts: 3915 · Posted: Apr 25, 2007 6:12 am

I agree with Jeff right now in terms of ERA and WHIP, and 15 wins is reasonable, but I think that's as high as he'll go. More than anything his strikeouts should be an asset to fantasy owners. So long as he stays healthy and brings good stuff more often than not he should be in the 180-200 K range (figured with 190 innings).

Posts: 7881 · AiNoKeA Joined: 15 Feb 2005 Location: All Ova Posts: 7881

crazyderik wrote:

Hes still gonna be worth holding on to, hes got a good arm and is only improving.

I agree, he's definitely worth holding on to, I know I am.

Posts: 6104 · Posted: Apr 25, 2007 11:16 am

Don't get me wrong -- I wasn't saying to get rid of him. I thought the question was is he a sell-high candidate, and with a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, he definitely is -- and you would want a lot in return. But he is still definitely ownable and not a guy you MUST get rid of, or desire to get rid of. Sorry for the confusion.

Posts: 2302 · Posted: Apr 25, 2007 11:57 am

Im interested in how you rank Hill and James compared to each other as of now.....

fyi: I asked this question about 5 weeks ago and it was almost unanimous from the members of FIC that James was the better pitcher. At the time, I needed a closer because I only had 1 on my roster, and I had plenty of SPs and the option of either trading Hill or James, so I ended up trading Hill and Im kinda kicking myself for it...

Posts: 6104 · Posted: Apr 25, 2007 12:29 pm

I guess I missed that question, because I would have picked Hill by default -- I hadn't seen James much before this season, and hadn't heard that many people extremely high on him.

I've seen James pitch a couple of times this season. Despite the fact he's more of a fastballer and doesn't have the big ol' curveball, James still reminds me of Hill before Hill put it together late last season. James has that strikeout ability Hill has, but he's been susceptible to the long ball like Hill is. He's showing the same lack of confidence that Hill showed early last season. I can't predict a Hill-like breakout this season, but if he can bottle whatever Hill did last summer, I wouldn't be surprised to see such a breakout. It's just hard to predict. I'd be patient with James.