Montreal/San Juan Expos: Will Play to Move
March 04, 2004
As we head towards the 2004 MLB season, FIC plans on jump-starting our coverage with the introduction of our new divisional columns, which will run weekly throughout the baseball season. As your NL East columnist, we're taking a preseason look at the division team-by-team. In the weeks to follow, we'll look at the rest of the teams by the position that they finished in 2003.
Montreal Expos
Offseason Moves
- Acquired 1B Nick Johnson, OF Juan Rivera and P Randy Choate from the New York Yankees for SP Javier Vazquez
- Acquired a PTBNL from the Oakland A's for C Michael Barrett
- Acquired P Wilton Chavez from the Chicago Cubs for IF/OF Jose Macias
- Acquired OF Ryan Church and IF Maicer Isturiz for RP Scott Stewart
- Free agents signed: OF Carl Everett, 3B Tony Batista, OF Damon Buford*, C Gregg Zaun*, P Pat Mahomes*, UT Joe Vitiello* (* denotes minor league contract)
- Players lost to free agency: OF Vladimir Guerrero, OF Wil Cordero, SP Orlando Hernandez, RP Britt Reames, 3B Fernando Tatis
It was the typical offseason for the "lame duck" Expos as their stars continue to leave town to bigger markets and bigger paychecks. This year they lost the most talented outfielder in the game, Vladimir Guerrero, and also traded their ace, Javier Vazquez. While you'd think that this would absolutely devastate the Expos, upon closer inspection they should be very similar to last years team. Now let's hope that Bud Selig and his cronies move the Expos to another city before it's a totally worthless franchise (I'll leave that column to Jim).
Projected Lineup:
1. Brad Wilkerson (LF)
2. Nick Johnson (1B)
3. Jose Vidro (2B)
4. Carl Everett (CF)
5. Orlando Cabrera (SS)
6. Tony Batista (3B)
7. Juan Rivera/Terrmel Sledge (RF)
8. Brian Schneider (C)
Projected Rotation:
Livan Hernandez
Tony Armas Jr
Zach Day
Tomokazu Ohka
Claudio Vargas
Closer: Rocky Biddle
Setup Men: Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala, Joey Eischen
Top Prospects: OF Terrmel Sledge, P Josh Karp, P Seung Song
Offensively the Expos lose Vlad Guerrero (ouch), Wil Cordero and Fernando Tatis. While it has to hurt psychologically, the loss of Vlad isn't as devastating as one might think. For one, Vlad was injured for a good chunk of 2003 and when you compare newly acquired Carl Everett's (.287-28-92-8, .876) production to Vlad + the spare parts from RF (.302-31-114-17, .917 OPS) last year, you get very similar numbers. While the Expos would rather have Vlad, they did a great job by signing Everett and upgrading at two other positions. The Expos acquired Nick Johnson in the Vazquez trade and he provides great on-base skills and if he's healthy, he can challenge for the batting title. At third base, the Expos signed Tony Batista who provides more power than the misfits from last season (Tatis+others: .230-9-49). When you look at this offense on paper, it should perform better than its 2003 version.
Very similarly, the Expos lose their star pitcher but they can stomach his loss as well. Tony Armas Jr missed virtually all of last year with a shoulder injury but he looked dominant in his first 5 starts going 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and a 1.06. If he's healthy, he can provide a huge boost to the rotation. Zach Day was also impressive in his first season as a starter; but he went down with a rotator cuff injury that cost him June and he didn't look right after that. Ohka had a breakout 2002 season but struggled with his consistency in the first half; he should rebound in 2004. The Expos starters had the 3rd best ERA in the NL at 3.82; they should remain in the upper tier of NL clubs in 2004.
The Expos bullpen was a weak link in 2003 and isn't much improved over last year. The Expos bullpen had the 5th worst ERA in the NL at 4.40. Rocky Biddle is penciled in as closer but he struggled in the second half despite shutting the door in 34 of 41 opportunities. His 4.65 ERA and 1.55 WHIP leave a lot of room for improvement but those are very similar to his career averages. Chad Cordero is likely the closer of the future for the Expos but he's just 21-years-old. He was impressive in his rookie debut going 1-0 with 1 saves, a 1.64 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP in 11 innings.
Now that we have a bit of an overview, we'll take a little bit of a closer look at each player from a fantasy angle, along with when they should be drafted and what to expect, primarily looking positionally.
Catcher
Brian Schneider is a solid contact hitter with a little bit of pop. Schneider will likely bat 8th for the Expos which isn't good for his RBI or run totals. Expect Schneider's average to improve to at least .250 and he could with low teens power. He'll go undrafted.
First Base
Nick Johnson was the key to the Javier Vazquez trade with the Yanks. Johnson is an on base machine that has been held back by various hand and wrist injuries throughout his career. Last April he had a .491 OBP and was leading the AL in walks before fracturing his hand and landing on the DL in May. In any leagues that count OBP, Johnson is a god. He may challenge for batting title one day and should hit 20-25 homers. Now he just has to stay healthy... Take him around the 17th round.
Second Base
Jose Vidro is a great hitter that improved once again in 2003. While his power dipped slightly, Vidro drew more walks, struck out less and set a career high .397 OBP. His RBI total dipped to 65 but with Nick Johnson and Brad Wilkerson set to hit in front of him, he should have plenty of ducks on the pond. Expect his to .310+ with 15-20 homers and 90+ RBI. The only risk with Vidro is injury risk as he's battled back, knee and shoulder injuries in recent seasons. He'll be taken around the 7th round.
Third Base
Tony Batista is actually an improvement on for the Expos from last season. Last year, the Expos third basemen combined to hit just .230 with 9 homers and 49 RBI. Batista is an all-or-nothing type hitter as he hit 26 homers and drove in 99 runs; but his .663 OPS leaves a lot to be desired in real life. Batista will likely hit between .230-240 with 25 homers and 80-90 RBI. If you can stomach that pitiful average, then go for it. I'd leave him undrafted.
Shortstop
Orlando Cabrera rebounded from a back injury in 2002 to have the best season of his career. Cabrera et career highs in batting average (.297), doubles (43), homers (17), runs (95), OBP (.347) and SLG (.460). Cabrera will bat 5th in the order which should help him pick up more RBIs but it may hurt his runs scored. He's the 2nd or 3rd best shortstop in the NL. Expect his average to slip to around .270 but he's produce 15-20 homers with 25+ steals. He'll be drafted by the end of the 4th round.
Left field
Brad Wilkerson basically repeated his prior season hitting .268-19-77-13. Wilkerson has good plate discipline (.380 OBP) but strikes out about once per game. He benefits from playing half his games in Olympic Stadium and Puerto Rico - he hit .289/.393/.518 at home, and .247/.368/.412 on the road. Expect similar numbers in 2004. His RBI total will take a hit if he bats leadoff for the Expos. He'll go around the 17-18th round.
Center Field
Carl Everett bounced back after two down years and will be looked to fill part of the huge void left by Vlad Guerrero. Everett is always an injury risk, but when healthy, he's a very dangerous hitter from the left-side. Last year he hit .287 with 28 homers, 92 RBI and 8 steals for the Rangers and White Sox. Just remember to sit Everett against lefties as he hit just .254/.320/.377 against them last season. He'll be taken around the 15th round.
Right Field
Termmel Sledge, 26, is getting a bit old to be considered a prospect but he should be given a shot at starting everyday for the Expos. In the minors, Sledge showed good plate discipline and increasing power over the last year. At Triple-A, Sledge hit .324/.397/.545 with 26 doubles, 9 triples, 22 homers, 92 RBI and 13 steals. If Sledge is given the opportunity, he'll be a ROY candidate. As a side note, Sledge tested positive for a banned substance during a training camp for the US Olympic team and was banned from international competition for two years; however, he received no sanctions from MLB. Take a flyer on Sledge in the last few rounds.
Juan Rivera is an overrated prospect from the Yankees minor league system. Once regarded as a top prospect, Rivera looks more like a 4th outfielder than an everyday starter. His plate discipline is weak and he offers teens power and no speed. Don't bother...
Starting Rotation
Livan Hernandez had a breakout season in 2003, which he credited to a change in delivery. He went 15-10 with 8 complete games, a 3.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 178Ks in 233.1 innings. He actually got stronger as the season progressed going 6-4 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the second half. While I wouldn't expect quite as good a season in 2004, he should be a solid fantasy starter in 2003 but expect his ERA to rise to the high 3s and his WHIP to creep up to around 1.30. He'll probably go around the 14th round.
Tony Armas Jr was the Expos best pitcher for the month of April (2-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) before hitting the DL with a torn labrum and missing the rest of the season. The Expos will need Armas to step up with the loss of Vazquez and if he's healthy, you can count on it. Armas strikes out around 7 per nine innings but he'll need to keep his walks down to be effective. Keep an eye out this spring and if he's healthy, grab him in the last few rounds, as he'll be an absolute steal.
Zach Day is a sinkerball specialist that can dominate games when he's on. He had a solid first half going 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, but he slightly tore his rotator cuff and never quite recovered. Due to his sinker approach, Day will never pile up the strikeouts, which negatively affects his fantasy value. He'll never be a premier starter, but he can be a solid #3. Pick him off the waiver wire if he's hot.
Tomokazu Ohka had a decent 2003 (10-12, 4.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) after a breakout 2002 season (13-8, 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). Last season, his numbers jumped back up to his career averages. Ohka is a finesse pitcher that makes hitters put the ball in play - unfortunately a lot of them fell in for hits last year. Expect his numbers to improve slightly but he's only worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues.
Claudio Vargas had a solid rookie season with the Expos going 6-5 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in the first half. A sore shoulder ruined his second half but Vargas should be solid in the back end of the Expos rotation. Vargas needs to improve on his control given that he's not a power pitcher. He'll go undrafted.
Bullpen
Rocky Biddle is penciled in as the Expos closer for his second season, but his hold is definitely a weak one. Last season he saved 34 of 41 games but he was less effective as the season wore on. In the first half, Biddle went 3-4 with 22 saves, a 3.97 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. In the second half it got worse as he went 2-4 with 12 saves, a 5.81 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. Biddle's career ERA stands at 5.09 and his WHIP at 1.50, which inspires no confidence in me. Expect Biddle to lose his closer role early in 2004 as manager Frank Robinson won't be patient with him this season. I wouldn't draft him, but if you want to, don't take him until the last couple of rounds.
Chad Cordero was the Expos' first round pick in 2003 and he was fast-tracked to the majors, pitching just 26.1 innings in the minors before making it to the big show. Cordero didn't disappoint either, as he looked very sharp going 1-0 with 1 saves, 1.64 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 12 Ks in 11 innings. Expect Cordero to be closing games sometime this season and probably sooner than later. Take him in the last few rounds.
Luis Ayala was a Rule 5 steal for the Expos in 2003. He gave them a reliable man out of the pen going 10-3 with 5 saves, a 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. If Biddle and Cordero falter, Ayala would be next in line for saves. Keep an eye on the Expos closer situation but don't draft Ayala.
Be sure to check back next week when we take a look at the New York Mets, and remember to check out the updates to every other division in baseball here on FIC!
