M's Report, May 26

Seattle Mariners, 31-18, 1st place by 2 games over Oakland Athletics

TEAM STATISTICS (rankings out of all 30 MLB teams):
Batting:
.788 OPS (7th)
256 RUNS (8th)
49 HR (tied for 16th)
28 SB (12th)

Pitching:
3.87 ERA (8th)
1.317 WHIP (8th)
299 K (17th)

A LOOK AT THE M’S RESULTS SO FAR:
Record against teams above .500: 9-10, .474 (Yankees, Athletics, Royals, Twins)
Record against teams at or below .500: 17-7, .708 (Rangers, Angels, White Sox, Indians, Tigers)
Record against teams below .400: 5-1, .833 (Indians, Tigers)

LATEST NEWS:
Before their recent homestand, the Mariners went 5-1 on a road trip to Cleveland (18-31) and Detroit (12-36), averaging 6.2 runs per game and outscoring the Indians and Tigers 37-19.

What a difference a week makes.

In their just-completed homestand, the M’s were a pedestrian 3-3 against the Royals (26-22) and Twins (29-20) and scored just 4.2 runs/game, while being outscored 31-25.

The upcoming schedule has the M’s playing 2 in Kansas City and 4 in Minnesota. Team enigma Freddy Garcia (3-6, 5.90) will start that first road game in KC on Tuesday. His last outing was brutal (7 inn, 7 h, 7 er, 3 bb). It could have been worse, as he gave up 6 runs in the first 2 innings before settling down. I was at the game and it was typical Freddy. Nibble, nibble, nibble, boom! He walked the first 2 batters of the game and later gave up a 3-run homer to Carlos Beltran in the first inning. Freddy supporters (and, like fans of Celine Dion, they surprisingly do exist) like to point out that he settled down after the first two innings and pitched well from the 3rd inning on. Despite this, I wouldn’t pitch him on Tuesday in Kansas City if he was on my Fantasy team. I wouldn’t pitch him if he was on my beer-league softball team. Right now, he’s as big a pitching risk as there is out there. Two starts ago, there was a raging debate over who was a bigger flop so far this season—Freddy Garcia or Derek Lowe. That title is now solely in the possession of Mr. Garcia.

THE SAFECO FIELD EFFECT:
If you play in a league in which you can bench players, the Mariners have some key players with large home/road splits. Safeco Field is a difficult place to hit, so you should be wary of starting certain hitters when the Mariners are home.

TEAM HITTING (Home):
28 G
129 R (4.6/game)
22 HR
15 SB
.266 AVG
.340 OBP
.401 SLG
.741 OPS

TEAM HITTING (Away):
21 G
127 R (6.0/game)
27 HR
13 SB
.287 AVG
.367 OBP
.475 SLG
.843 OPS

That’s more than a 100-point difference in OPS (On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage) along with scoring 1.4 runs/game more on the road and hitting more homers and stealing more bases. That being said, who are the biggest culprits? Who’s sorry butt should be nailed to the bench when the M’s are playing at home and who is okay to keep in the lineup?

Must Bench at home:
Mike Cameron:
.222 avg, .337 obp, .395 slg, .732 ops at home
.329 avg, .435 obp, .600 slg, 1.035 ops on the road.

Ugh. A .222 average and a .395 slugging percentage from an outfielder? That can only hurt your lineup. If you have Cammy, be wary of ever starting him when the M’s are playing in Safeco.

Worse at home, but still valuable:
Ichiro:
.297 avg, .366 obp, .369 slg, .735 ops at home
.341 avg, .370 obp, .477 slg, .847 ops on the road

He’ll still get you average, runs, and steals at home, but overall his OPS drops by 112 points when at Safeco.

Bret Boone:
.287 avg, .344 obp, .491 slg, .835 ops at home
.325 avg, .419 obp, .675 slg, 1.094 on the road

Bret turns into Super-Boone outside the pitcher-friendly confines of Safeco Field. In fact, his road stats are better than the typical numbers Alfonso Soriano has put up in the last 2 years (minus Soriano’s steals).

Edgar Martinez:
.276 avg, .387 obp, .434 slg, .821 ops at home
.347 avg, .455 obp, .708 slg, 1.163 ops on the road

Away from Safeco this season, Edgar has OPS numbers comparable to the 1992-2000 version of Barry Bonds (nobody approaches the numbers of the 2001-2002 Barry Bonds).

LOCAL SPIN:
The papers are full of stories about Freddy Garcia partying too much, out in too many clubs, drinking too much, etc, etc. Freddy denies that he’s out too much. He admits to going out saying, “Yes, I go out. I can go out. I can go out if I want. Why not? I’m 26 years old. I’m single.” He points out that he’s been going out to clubs since he’s been in the big leagues. “I’ve always gone out, and all the years I’ve done good, it’s no problem. I don’t do good for a few games, and now it’s a bad thing?”

He’s right. If he was 6-3, 3.90 instead of 3-6, 5.90, his late-night lifestyle wouldn’t be an issue.

Frankly, I don’t really care about his late-night lifestyle. The greatest player who ever played, Babe Ruth, was well-known for his after-hours carousing. The difference is that Babe Ruth continued to put up mammoth numbers, and Freddy hasn’t.

INJURIES:
Not that it really matters, but Jeff Cirillo (.230 avg, .302 obp, .310 slg, .612 ops) missed a few games with back pain. Watching him hit .230 with 2 homers in 126 at-bats and hearing the Mariners announcers continually praise him is amazing on a certain level. I’d estimate that M’s announcers Dave Neihaus, Rick Rizzs, and Ron Fairly have said “Don’t worry about Cirillo, he’ll come around” about 25 times between them so far this season. How many at-bats until you can start to say, “Okay, he sucks.” It’s like when your loser relative comes over at Christmas time and everyone in the family is thinking, “Why is that scumbag here?” but nobody actually says it out loud. At dinner, the relative stands up to propose a toast and everyone tries to avert their eyes, knowing that it will just turn out badly, but he’s just so obviously, painfully there, in your face, being lame, that you can’t really deny his existence, as much as you’d like to. The Mariners have a 2-game lead in one of the toughest divisions in baseball and they continue to play games with an Automatic Out-Making Machine in the lineup. On top of it all, they pay him nearly 6 ½ million dollars to get 7 outs every 10 times he steps to the plate.