Seattle Mariners Report

Seattle Mariners, 44-22 (.667)—1st place by 7 games over Oakland Athletics
(and the best record in the American League)

TEAM STATISTICS (rankings out of all 30 MLB teams):
Batting:
.794 OPS (8th)
352 RUNS (7th)
65 HR (19th)
41 SB (Tied for 9th)

Pitching:
3.54 ERA (2nd)
1.251 WHIP (3rd)
411 K (16th)

WHO’S HOT (so far in June, 12 games):
Hitting:
2B Bret Boone--.333/.365/.646, 1.011 OPS, 8 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI
RF Ichiro--.429/.462/.510, .972 OPS, 6 R, 3 RBI, 4 SB

Get on board the Boonie Express. He’s been hotter than any second baseman in baseball lately. He’s the equal of (or better than) Alfonso Soriano in every category except steals:
Boone: .313/.375/.598, .973 OPS, 53 R, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 6 SB
Soriano: .288/.344/.526, .871 OPS, 54 R, 18 HR, 43 RBI, 18 SB

Ichiro has been leading the M’s offense in May and June. His combined numbers for those months:
.396 AVG, .422 OBP, .541 SLG, 30 runs scored and 9 steals in 40 games.

Pitching:
SP Jamie Moyer—2-1, 21.1 INN, 13 H, 5 BB, 14 K, 1.27 ERA, 0.84 WHIP
SP Ryan Franklin—1-1, 15 INN, 9 H, 2 BB, 10 K, 1.80 ERA, 0.73 WHIP
SP Freddy Garcia—3-0, 23.1 INN, 20 H, 6 BB, 19 K, 2.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Jamie Moyer’s season-long numbers are amazing enough, especially considering his age (40): 10-3, 2.99, 1.20 WHIP. But what really amazes me is his strikeout rate is significantly higher than any year in his career. Let’s look at the last 5 years:
Year K/9
1999 5.41
2000 5.73
2001 5.11
2002 5.74
2003 7.20

Moyer averaged about 5.5 strikeouts per 9 innings from 1999-2002, and has bumped that up to 7.2 this year. That’s not normal for a 40-year-old pitcher. It could be a simple matter of small sample size. I’d be surprised if it held up all year.

WHO’S NOT (so far in June, 12 games):
Hitting:
SS Carlos Guillen--.176/.243/.206, .449 OPS, 5 R, 3 RBI
C Dan Wilson--.222/.263/222, .485 OPS, 0 R, 2 RBI

Quick! If you picked up Carlos Guillen in the middle of a hot month of May, now’s the time to see if you can make a Billy Beane-esque trade to some poor schmo who doesn’t look at what’s happened recently and will only notice Guillen’s current .297 batting average. Guillen is regressing back to his normal self:
April: .272/.341/.370, .711 OPS
May: .368/.412/.529, .941 OPS
June: .176/.243/.206, .449 OPS

Pitching:
RP Giovanni Carrara—2 INN, 3 H, 0 BB, 13.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

Carrara really has no business being on the M’s roster considering the good, young arms they have in Tacoma.

LATEST TEAM INFO:
The Mariners had an amazing road trip, winning 11 out of 12 games, with their only loss being a 3-2 decision against the New York Mets. Unfortunately, they’ve followed that by going 2-3 to start off their current homestand.

Currently, the Mariners are 25-8 (.758) on the road, 19-14 (.576) at home.

Statistically, they continue to be a dramatically different hitting team at home.
Team Hitting:
Home: .261/.333/.391, .724 OPS, 136 R, 32 G, 4.3 R/G, 24 HR, 15 SB
Away: .307/.378/.488, .866 OPS, 215 R, 33 G, 6.5 R/G, 41 HR, 25 SB

Put another way, the Mariners as a team, at home, have an OPS roughly equivalent to this year’s version of Roberto Alomar (.265/.346/.377, .722 OPS). That’s not a good thing.

On the road, the M’s, as a team, have an OPS most similar to: Erubiel Durazo (.286/.391/.475, .865 OPS).

The difference between the M’s hitting at home and away this season is equivalent to the difference between Roberto Alomar and Erubiel Durazo. Please, give me Durazo any day.

The strange thing is, the Mariners are pitching better on the road. If the hitting woes are purely attributable to Safeco Field, the M’s pitchers should gain the advantage that the M’s hitters lose. They don’t:
Team Pitching:
Home: 32 G, 293 IP, 197 K, 6.1 K/9, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Away: 33 G, 287.3 IP, 211 K, 6.6 K/9, 3.29 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Their ERA, WHIP, and K/9 are better on the road. I don’t quite know what to make of this yet, but further research is underway.

LOCAL SPIN:
The Mariners are hot. Crowds are filling Safeco. They’ve averaged over 38,000 fans per game for this homestand and sold out all 3 games against the NL’s best team, the Atlanta Braves. The M’s are winning, currently with the best record in the American League. And even Freddy Garcia has had 4 solid outings in a row, including a terrific game against the hot-hitting Atlanta Braves offense on Friday (7.1 inn, 7 h, 1 er, 5 k, 2 bb). A few weeks ago, I thought Freddy was someone to consider dropping, but he’s won 4 straight decisions and his ERA has dropped to 4.69 for the season. Looking more closely, his 4 straight wins have come against Kansas City (tied for 14th in MLB in Runs Scored), Minnesota (tied for 14th), New York Mets (25th), and Atlanta (5th). That’s one good-hitting team, one bad-hitting team, and two in the middle-of-the-pack. In 30.1 innings, he’s struck out 22 (6.5 K/9) and walked 8, good for a 2.75 K/BB ratio. A ratio over 2-1 is quite solid, so feel good that Freddy’s had a 4 solid starts if you still have him on your roster. I wouldn’t say he’s all the way back, though. His good stretch leaves him currently at: 7-6, 4.69, which I’m sure is less than you hoped for when you drafted him to your fantasy team this year.

INJURIES:
Kazuhiro Sasaki is on the DL (retroactive to June 6) with bruised ribs. Apparently, he slipped while carrying his suitcase up a flight of stairs. I guess it’s possible. I’m not convinced that this rib problem and the earlier back problem that had him on the DL are unrelated to his off-season surgery. Often times, when a pitcher has an arm problem, he compensates for the injury and ends up with other problems, like back or legs. Sasaki is no longer in the upper-echelon of closers. He’s a significant risk when he comes off the DL. In the meantime, there is not set closer in Seattle as manager Bob Melvin has said that Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Nelson, and even Shigetoshi Hasegawa will get save opportunities as the situation dictates.

John Mabry is on the DL with a strained shoulder but it really makes no difference to the team one way or the other. Mabry only had 33 at bats before the injury and hadn’t done much with them: .182/.270/.424, .695 OPS

QUICK VIEW:
Add: Bret Boone, Ichiro Suzuki, Edgar Martinez, Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche, and consider Ryan Franklin (solid 4th starter on a very good team)

Drop: Carlos Guillen

Hold: Mike Cameron (if you can play him only on the road, you’ll have a top-notch outfielder)

Trade: Carlos Guillen (if you can find any takers), Kazuhiro Sasaki (if you can get a closer back in a deal)
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