M's Report

July 7, 2003
Seattle Mariners, 55-32 (.632)—1st place by 6 games over Oakland Athletics
(best record in the American League)

MID-SEASON REPORT

TEAM STATISTICS (rankings out of all 30 MLB teams):
Batting: .773 OPS (9th)
438 RUNS (9th)
83 HR (22nd)
58 SB (Tied for 6th)

Pitching: 3.54 ERA (2nd)
1.230 WHIP (2nd)
523 K (19th)

BY POSITION:
Catcher:
Dan Wilson (164 ab, 13 r, 1 hr, 22 rbi, .244 avg, .276 obp, .305 slg, .581 ops) Wilson has been even worse than I expected he’d be, and shouldn’t be getting as much playing time as he gets. Ben Davis deserves more at-bats. Before the season started, I predicted Wilson would produce a .260, 5 hr, 40 rbi line. He’ll have to improve in the second half to reach even that weak projection.
Ben Davis (142 ab, 17 r, 5 hr, 30 rbi, .282 avg, .322 obp, .486 slg, .808 ops) It’s a shame that Wilson continues to steal at bats from Davis. Even worse, Wilson has another year on his $3.5M contract, so we might not see Davis get his rightful playing time until 2005. If he does get the playing time, Davis is an option in larger fantasy leagues.

Firstbase:
John Olerud (275 ab, 33 r, 4 hr, 39 rbi, .284 avg, .385 obp, .396 slg, .781 ops) Ouch! I had Olerud pegged for a near-.300 average, 80-90 runs, 20 homers, and 90-100 rbi. As the halfway point has come and gone, it looks like he won’t approach those numbers. He’s still doing a great job of getting on base, but his power has plummetted. Even worse, historically, his numbers drop after the All-Stear Break. In the last 3 years, his numbers Pre All-Star are .312 avg, .422 obp, .507 slg, for a .929 ops. Post All-Star Break: .277 avg, .370 obp, .419 slg, a .789 ops. Olerud isn’t hitting lefties particularly well either, posting a .266/.341/.354, .695 OPS against southpaws. With lefty-masher Greg Colbrunn (.953 OPS versus lefties the last 3 years), sitting on the bench, Olerud should see less playing time in the second half. Not worth picking up.

Secondbase:
Bret Boone (342 ab, 63 r, 22 hr, 70 rbi, 7 sb, .310 avg, .371 obp, .579 slg, .950 ops) Boonie is approaching his monster 2001-numbers. In the first half of 2001, Boone had 65 r, 22 hr, 84 rbi, and a .945 ops. So far this season, he’s right there in runs, homers, and OPS, but the RBI are down. That’s mainly because RBI is such a context-dependant statistic. Boone is right there with Alfonso Soriano on the short list of the best-hitting secondbaseman in the game.

Shortstop:
Carlos Guillen (240 ab, 40 r, 3 hr, 25 rbi, 0 sb, .288 avg, .358 obp, .404 slg, .762 ops) Guillen had a great month of May, hitting .368, scoring 19 runs, and picking up 12 RBI, but a .188 June swoon saw his average drop nearly 40 points. He’s hit just .257 in the last 3 weeks. His .288 average looks good at the moment, but it’s dropping. He’s not exciting, he doesn’t give you much of anything, and he’s not likely to turn it on in the second half.

Third Base:
Jeff Cirillo (230 ab, 23 r, 2 hr, 22 rbi, .226 avg, .298 obp, .300 slg, .598 ops) If the M’s continue to play well, make the playoffs, then the World Series, statheads will get out the Almanac and try to find a World Series Team with a worse starting thirdbaseman. It will be tough to do. Cirillo inches up towards crappiness when playing on the road (.250 avg, .348 obp, .350 slugging, .698 ops) but sinks to all-time depths of lousy-dom when hitting at Safeco Field (.200 avg, .241 obp, .245 slg, .486 ops). The M’s pitchers combined to go 5 for 23 (.217) in inter-league play. Cirillo hits .200 at Safeco. Maybe they should let the pitchers hit and DH for Cirillo when they’re playing at home. And the worst part of it all is this: Cirillo’s remaining contract, 2004—$6.725M, 2005--$7.025M, 2006--$7.625M or $1.25M buyout.

Leftfield:
Randy Winn (317 ab, 49 r, 2 hr, 31 rbi, 15 sb, .259 avg, .314 obp, .350 slg, .664 ops) At the beginning of the season, I anticipated a drop-off for Winn in average and power, with the expectations of some steals and runs scored. Well, he’s looking at nearly 100 runs and 30 steals this season, so that’s in line with expectations, but I bet you were hoping for more than a .259 batting average and 2 home runs. You can mostly blame Safeco Field for those low numbers. At home: .216 avg, .279 obp, .299 slg, .578 ops and just 4 steals. On the road: .290 avg, .343 obp, .388 slg, .731 ops, with 11 steals. If you need runs and steals, and can bench Winn at home, he’s someone to consider.

Centerfield:
Mike Cameron (290 ab, 46 r, 12 hr, 53 rbi, 7 sb, .272 avg, .366 obp, .483 slg, .849 ops) Pre-season, my expectations for Cameron were: .260 avg, 90 r, 20 hr, 85 rbi, 25 sb. So far, so good. He’s looking a little better than I expected across the board, except for the steals. He has proven that he will never hit well at Safeco Field. This season, his numbers at home: .213 avg, .310 obp, .425 slg, .735 ops, with 39 strikeouts in 127 at-bats (once every 3.3 at-bats). On the road, he’s an All-Star: .319 avg, .407 obp, .528 slg, .935 ops. That’s the problem with Cameron. Overall, he’s not a bad guy to have on your team, but you’ll suffer through homestands, watch him hit .215, and strike out every third at-bat That can’t be good for the blood pressure.

Rightfield:
Ichiro (364 ab, 63 r, 7 hr, 27 rbi, 23 sb, .349 avg, .386 obp, .467 slg, .853 ops) A .243 April had fans wondering if the league had finally caught on to Ichiro, but he quieted those concerns by hitting .389 in May, .386 in June and is off to a blistering .462 mark in July. He’s on pace for his best MLB season to date. He’s even shown a bit of power, with those 7 home runs, after hitting 8 in each of his first two seasons in the U.S. Ichiro is a top-notch rightfielder, and the leading vote-getter for the All-Star Game for the 3rd year in a row.

Designated Hitter:
Edgar Martinez (256 ab, 41 r, 18 hr, 60 rbi, .305 avg, .418 obp, .559 slg, .977 ops) Edgar’s on pace for his best season since 2000, when he put up these numbers: .324 avg, 100 r, 37 hr, 145 rbi. All this at the age of 40 and with a tender hamstring. He’s the most consistent bat in the lineup, as reliable as can be. His numbers were down a bit in June (.783 ops), thanks to interleague play when he went a week at a time without regular at-bats, but they’re back up in July (.967 ops). A definite addition to your roster if you can get him.

The Bench:
Mark McLemore, Willie Bloomquist, Greg Colbrunn, and John Mabry (355 ab, 45 r, 7 hr, 37 rbi, 4 sb, .208 avg) Greg Colbrunn (.276 avg, .323 obp, .483 slg, .806 ops) deserves more playing time, but nothing here is worth considering fantasy-wise.

STARTING PITCHING:
Jamie Moyer (11-5, 2.99 era, 1.19 whip, 76 k’s in 114.1 innings) I pegged him as a risky proposition before the season started because of his age (40), but so far he’s been excellent, easily the staff ace, despite the lack of anything resembling a fastball. He makes great use of the Mariners’ good defense but has also struck out more batters per 9 innings (5.98) than in any season since 1998. Moyer has a shot at 20 wins and 150 K’s. I expect something closer to 17 wins, 130 K’s, and a mid-3.00 ERA, but those are still great numbers. The biggest concern for Moyer is his age and the fact that he’s on pace to throw the most pitches he’s ever thrown in one season. If any soft-tossing 40-year-old can keep it up, Moyer can. Definitely worth having.

Gil Meche (10-4, 3.36 era, 1.23 whip, 74 K’s in 107.1 innings) Meche has been far more than the M’s could have expected when he was fighting for a rotation spot in spring training. He’s put up All-Star like numbers, despite not making the AL squad. That being said, the latest local reports from the Seattle Times are that Meche has been experiencing increasing soreness in his arm the last few starts. His stats for his last 3 starts (1-1, 5.82 era, 1.53 whip, 7 K’s, 8 bb in 17 innings) don’t look good. With two shoulder surgeries behind him, this is something to be concerned about. Meche has thrown 107 innings this year, after throwing only 65 in 2002 (with Double-A San Antonio) and missing all of 2001. Lastly, his ERA at home is 2.51, on the road it’s 3.65. Meche looks real good right now, but there are some warning signs. He might be at the peak of his value at the moment.

Joel Pineiro (9-5, 3.41 era, 1.21 whip, 82 K’s in 116 innings) Before the season started, I said that I would draft Pineiro ahead of Moyer. I still stand by that, despite Moyer’s better numbers at the halfway point. I think Pineiro will end up with better stats. Last season, Pineiro was 7-3, 2.55 at home and 7-4, 3.95 on the road. In 2001, he was 4-0, 0.64 at home, 2-2, 3.78 on the road. This season, he’s reversed that trend, going 4-4, 4.08 at home and 5-1, 2.86 on the road so far. I think the home-field advantage will return for Pineiro and he’ll finish the year with around 17 wins, a low-3.00’s ERA, and 150+ strikeouts. His attitude on the mound is great, he looks like he’s in charge out there and ready to do battle.

Freddy Garcia (9-7, 4.45 era, 1.31 whip, 76 K’s in 115.1 innings) On any given night, it’s a question of which Freddy will show up. The mediocre Freddy Garcia of April: 2-3, 4.21. The brutal Freddy Garcia of May: 2-3, 7.22, or the dominating Freddy Garcia of June: 5-0, 2.05. I suggested trading Freddy a while ago, so if you ignored that advice and held on to him through that 5-0 June, good job. Still, taking a closer look, we find that Freddy ran up that record, in order, against: Minnesota (15th in runs scored), New York Mets (25th), Atlanta (6th), Anaheim (13th), Anaheim (13th), and San Diego (24th). That’s 1 start against a good-hitting team, 3 starts against mediocre-hitting teams, and 2 starts against patsies. Freddy has looked better lately, but I’m not thoroughly convinced.

Ryan Franklin (6-7, 3.65 era, 1.21 whip, 52 K’s in 111 innings) If you have Franklin, now’s the time to start fishing around to see what you can get in a trade. His numbers look good and you can play up the fact that he pitches for the team with the best record in the AL. Why trade him? Because he likely won’t keep it up. His strikeout rate is low (4.2 K/9 innings), his homer rate (1.7 HR/9 innings) is high. That’s a deadly combination. Over the last 3 years, he’s had a 4.70 ERA in July and a 4.87 mark in August. Trade him while you still can.

RELIEVERS:
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1-1, 10 svs, 4.11 era, 1.32 whip, 21 K’s in 19.2 innings)—Currently on the DL. If your league has a DL, and you have the space to stash Sasaki until he comes back (possibly in August), he’s someone to consider. That being said, I’d be reluctant to rely on him to bolster your team all that much, considering the injuries he’s had this season and his pre-season surgery. He’ll likely be used carefully when he returns from the DL. How he’ll perform is a question mark.

Arthur Rhodes (1-1, 3 svs, 3.19 era, 1.04 whip, 31 K’s in 36.2 innings) On the surface, it looks like Rhodes hasn’t been the lights-out reliever that he was in 2001 (1.72 ERA) and 2002 (2.33 ERA), but that’s not entirely true. Take away one terrible outing (June 29 versus San Diego, featuring a Rondell White grand slam) and Rhodes’ ERA would be 1.96 for the season. He’s held opposing hitters to a .192 batting average and a puny .536 OPS. With Sasaki on the DL, Rhodes and Nelson will share the closer duties so his value is limited in the saves area. One cause for concern is his strikeout and walk rates. After averaging more than 10 K’s per 9 innings the last 4 years, Rhodes is at 7.6 K/9 innings this year. He’s walking more batters also. His K/BB ratio was 6.92 in 2001 and 6.23 in 2002. This year it’s 2.39.

Jeff Nelson (3-2, 7 svs, 4.34 era, 1.41 whip, 32 K’s in 29 innings) Nelson is also the victim of one terrible outing (June 20 versus San Diego and also featuring a Rondell White grand slam) that raises his season ERA from 2.86 to 4.34. That’s one of the tough things about being a relief pitcher. One bad outing can skew your season stats. Still, Nelson has not been as dominant as he once was. In 2001, he held opposing hitters to a .136 batting average. In 2002, he held them to a .221 average. This year, it’s up to .259. He’s 36 years old and is becoming more hittable. This also makes it very difficult to watch him pitch. As a closer, he’s a high-wired act, often working batters to a 3-2 count before getting the out. This season, he’s averaged 4.53 pitches per plate appearance, the highest rate of his career. Contrast that with Arthur Rhodes, who has averaged 3.9 pitches per plate appearance this season, the lowest of his career. With the game on the line, Mariners fans would rather see Rhodes out there. Nelson is losing his luster as a dominating relief pitcher.

Shigetoshi Hasegawa (1-3, 3 svs, 0.81 era, 0.95 whip, 20 K’s in 44.1 innings) Of all the big names in the M’s bullpen, Shiggy gets the most success with the least amount of natural talent. He doesn’t have Rhodes’ fastball, Nelson’s slider, or Sasaki’s split-fingered fastball, but he’s outpitched them all, and has been named to the AL All-Star team. How is he doing it? First off, he’s only walked 7 men in 44 1/3 innings, easily the best control he’s shown in any season. He lets opponents put the ball in play, especially at home where he’s only walked 1 man in 21 2/3 innings, and relies on a solid M’s defense. Can he keep up this pace? No way. He’s only striking out 4 men per 9 innings and it’s very difficult to maintain a below-1.00 ERA with a strikeout rate that low. I think the second half will see more batted balls drop for hits, and Shiggy’s ERA will rise to a more normal (for him) level, probably around 3.50 from here on out.

THE REST OF THE BULLPEN:
Julio Mateo (1-0, 3.43 era, 1.12 whip in 36.2 innings), Rafael Soriano (1-0, 1.68 era, 1.22 whip in 10.2 innings), and Aaron Taylor (0-0, 0.00 era, 0.27 whip in 3.2 innings) Keep your eye on these guys for the future, but they won’t help you this year.

RUMORS:
There’s been some talk of the Mariners being interested in closer Ugueth Urbina of Texas, but nothing more than rumors. GM Pat Gillick isn’t known for making blockbuster deals at the trading deadline and with a 6 game lead, the M’s might choose once again to stand pat. It would be a mistake. They have a good team but it can be better and Oakland GM Billy Beane won’t be shy about finding help for the Athletics in the second half. As a loyal Mariners follower, I hope we don’t go through the same thing as last year, when the M’s held first place into August, then let it slip away as 2 teams passed them in the standings. That’s the hope. The reality is more likely that the M’s ownership is content to be in a pennant race, rake in money from the sellouts they’ll have in August and September, and as long as they make gobs of money, it won’t matter if the M’s fail to make the playoffs again.