M's Report--8/5

Seattle Mariners, 68-43 (.613)
1st place by 4 games over Oakland Athletics (but not for long?)

TEAM STATISTICS (rankings out of all 30 MLB teams):
Batting:
.276 AVG (7th)
.777 OPS (8th)
568 RUNS (8th)
112 HR (Tied for 18th)
73 SB (Tied for 5th)

Pitching:
3.75 ERA (5th)
1.241 WHIP (3rd)
679 STRIKEOUTS (18th)
28 SAVES (Tied for 10th)

WHO’S HOT (Post-All Star Break):
Batting:
LF Randy Winn--.324/.368/.620, 13 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB
2B Bret Boone--.274/.387/.548, 12 R, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB
1B John Olerud--.281/.378/.547, 8 R, 4 HR, 22 RBI

Randy Winn has run hot and cold all year, with averages of .245, .324, .202, .343 for April, May, June, and July. He’s continuing the hot/cold trend by starting off August with a .182 average, but with only 11 at-bats so far. Still, he’s unreliable.

Interestingly enough, his 2003 stats are very close to his 2001 stats, with 2002 (read: career year) being the big outlier:
2001 429 AB, 54 R, 6 HR, 50 RBI, 12 SB, .273/.339/.401, .740 OPS
2002 607 AB, 87 R, 14 HR, 75 RBI, 27 SB, .298/.360/.461, .821 OPS
2003 410 AB, 67 R, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 17 SB, .278/.333/.400, .733 OPS

What he’s done so far is about what you can expect from here on out. Projected to a full season, his stats should look like this:

2003 (pro-rated to 162 games) 598 AB, 98 R, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 25 SB

So, basically, if your fantasy team would benefit from 30 more runs, 4 more homers, 20 more RBI, and 8 more steals, with a .275 average for the last third of the season, then Randy Winn is your man.

Bret Boone continues to be the best-hitting 2B in baseball. While Alfonso Soriano is mired in a woeful 3-month slump (he’s hitting .248 since the end of April), Boone has been remarkably consistent, posting OPS numbers of: .933, .996, .964, .930, and 1.083 for each month of this season so far. As long as Edgar Martinez remains healthy and slotted behind him in the lineup, Boonie should keep it going.

John Olerud has started to show a pulse at the plate, including a 2-HR, 7-RBI game versus the White Sox on Saturday (I was there for that one). While he’s hot now, his Post All-Star numbers have been very weak for a firstbaseman the last 3 years: .277/.370/.419, .789 OPS. I wouldn’t jump on this bandwagon.

Pitching:
SP Joel Pineiro—2-0, 22.2 INN, 15 H, 9 BB, 16 K, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
SP Ryan Franklin—2-1, 29 INN, 20 H, 5 BB, 11 K, 2.48 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
RP Jeff Nelson—6 INN, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
RP Shigetoshi Hasagawa—2 SVS, 5 INN, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
RP Rafael Soriano—1 SV, 14 INN, 5 H, 0 BB, 21 K, 0.64 ERA, 0.36 WHIP
RP Julio Mateo—14.1 INN, 9 H, 1 BB, 14 K, 1.88 ERA, 0.70 WHIP

Joel Pineiro looks like the Ace the Mariners have been looking for. Over his last 421.1 innings pitched (2001 to present), he’s posted a 2.95 ERA and gone 33-14 (.702). He’s the top starter on the staff. He won’t give you 200 K’s, but he will greatly help your team.

Ryan Franklin has been good lately, but he’s still a risk, as evidenced by his allowing 26 homers in 146.2 innings and a low strikeout rate (4.0 per 9 innings). Buyer beware.

Except for Arthur Rhodes, the M’s bullpen has been excellent. Neither Nelson nor Shiggy have allowed a run since the All-Star Break, and Soriano and Mateo (the long relievers in the pen) have been outstanding. As fans in Seattle get sick of watching Freddy Garcia get his ass handed to him every 5th day, there’s murmuring of sending Freddy to the pen and putting a red-hot Rafael Soriano in the rotation. Soriano’s been lights-out all season, currently 1-0, with a 1.63 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in 27.2 innings this year, so it’s a possibility if Freddy continues to struggle. If you can stash him in a reserve slot on your fantasy roster, do it now and hope that Freddy gets rocked by Cleveland on Thursday.

WHO’S NOT (Post-All Star Break, 18 games):
Hitting:
3B Willie Bloomquist--.246/.317/.281, 10 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 SB
IF Mark McLemore--.205/.300/.250, 4 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB

With SS Carlos Guillen and 3B Jeff Cirillo (mercifully) on the DL, the M’s have used Bloomquist and McLemore with more regularity, and recently acquired non-hitting shortstop Rey Sanchez. Bloomquist is no better than Cirillo was as a hitter, and worse defensively. He’s popular among fans for being “scrappy” but that’s just one letter away from the truth. He’s “crappy.” McLemore is at the end of the road. He had a good career but it looks like he hung on a year too long.

Pitching:
SP Freddy Garcia—0-3, 15 INN, 32 H, 8 BB, 9 K, 15.00 ERA, 2.67 WHIP
SP Jamie Moyer—2-0, 16.1 INN, 21 H, 6 BB, 7 K, 7.16 ERA, 1.65 WHIP
SP Gil Meche—2-2, 23.1 INN, 22 H, 11 BB, 20 K, 4.63 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
RP Arthur Rhodes—1-2, 5 INN, 9 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 7.20 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

Freddy, Freddy, Freddy, Freddy. Freddy Garcia is in the midst of the worst stretch of pitching in his career. He can’t get anyone out, allowing a .357 average against in July and 6 homers in his last 28.1 innings. He’s lost 5 straight and it hasn’t been pretty. Word in the local papers is that he’ll get one more start to straighten things out. He’s lined up to pitch against a patsy, going against weak-hitting Cleveland next, but if he can’t get them out, he’s likely headed to the bullpen. The bullpen would be a good place for him, if you can bring him in to face a stretch of right-handed hitters. So far this season righties are hitting just .247/.302/.401. But keep him away from lefties: .304/.375/.514.

Jamie Moyer continues to win (now 14-5) but he’s been hit hard in his last 3 outings (16.1 inn, 13 earned runs, for a 7.16 ERA). He’s also thrown a lot of pitches (103.4 per start). While I don’t think he’ll match his pre All-Star ERA of 3.02, he should still keep the ERA below 4.00 and is a solid choice for a starting pitcher.

Gil Meche comes with a warning sticker. He won his last start, but threw 116 pitches in just 5 innings, so it wasn’t clean and easy. His season numbers of 12-7, 3.78, 1.29 look great right now, but they’ll go up from here as his innings pitched continue to build upon an already career-high number. Fantasy-wise, he’s tradeable.

Arthur Rhodes has been ridden hard all season long and has struggled recently, but he should be okay. He won’t give you any saves, but if your league uses Holds as a category, he’s worth having.

LATEST TEAM INFO:
It’s been covered in many places, but I’ll toss it out here as well. The M’s made no major move at the trade deadline, choosing to stand pat with the team they have and only made a deal to acquire Rey Sanchez, while Oakland marginally improved themselves with the addition of outfielder Jose Guillen. The reason I saw “marginally” is because while Guillen is having a great year (.337/.385/.629), his career numbers aren’t much to look at: .270/.315/.427. Still, it was better than adding no-hit shortstop Rey Sanchez, a lifetime .272/.309/.334 hitter. The other upgrade for Oakland was bringing up Rich Harden from the minor leagues. That will be a more significant move than the addition of Jose Guillen as far as the pennant race is concerned. As things stand, the M’s now have offensive holes in the lineup at catcher when Dan Wilson is behind the plate, shortstop, and third base. They have average hitting in leftfield, at first base, and centerfield when they are playing at Safeco (where Mike Cameron can’t buy a hit). They could use a third baseman more than anything.

LOCAL SPIN:
Safeco Field continues to sell out as the M’s hold onto their lead in the AL West but fans were very disappointed that GM Pat Gillick didn’t make a significant move to help the team. Fans are behind the M’s still, but there’s uncertainty with Oakland hanging close. Watching the A’s win 2 games against the Yankees in their last at-bat over the weekend added even more fuel to the fire.

This quote from CEO Howard Lincoln doesn’t help things:
“I have to look from season to season, and I’m not prepared to take inordinate risks. One thing I am not willing to do is put us in a position of an operating loss. I’m not willing to borrow, or ask owners for cash again. If I showed people how far we have to go, the danger points, and all the issues in 2004, I think they’d see why we have to be financially responsible.”

First of all, Lincoln’s full of crap. The additional revenue from making the playoffs would offset any salary added to the team’s payroll for the last 50 games of the season. Second of all, fans don’t carry about his rhetoric. What fans see is sellouts every night despite higher and higher prices for tickets and concessions, a team in first place with a chance to go to the playoffs, and management doing nothing to help that team get there.

If this season ends up being a replay of last year (when Oakland and Anaheim passed Seattle in the standings in the last 2 months of the season), fans will be greatly disappointed and it’s possible they’ll make that disappointment known when it comes time to purchase season tickets for 2004.

INJURIES:
Closer Kazuhiro Sasaki is due back this week. Manager Bob Melvin has said that he’ll be eased back into things, not being immediately thrown into the closer role. But he’ll be there soon enough. Whether he’ll be up to the task after missing so much time this season remains to be seen.

Shortstop Carlos Guillen is on the DL with inflammation of the pelvis. He’ll be out longer than 15 days and as yet it’s uncertain when he’ll return. Possibly a month to six weeks.

Jeff Cirillo is working on his hitting in the Arizona Instructional League while pretending to rehab an imaginary injury to his shoulder. When will he be back? No one knows and no one cares.