M's Report--August 18

Seattle Mariners, 75-49 (.605)
1st place. Four games ahead of the Oakland Athletics, 71-53 (.573)

PENNANT RACE
For the last 2 months, the Mariners have played around a .500 clip, while the A’s have a .571 winning percentage in that time.

Standings on June 17:
Mariners 47-22 (.681) --
Athletics 39-29 (.574) 7.5

Since June 17:
Athletics 32-24 (.571) --
Mariners 28-27 (.509) 3.5

I’ve been skeptical all year about the M’s ability to hold onto their lead over the A’s but things are looking better for Seattle as time goes by. Over the last 55 games, the M’s have lost 3 ½ games in the standings to Oakland. There are 38 games left in the season so, at this rate, Seattle will maintain their lead. Put another way, if the M’s play .500 ball from here on out, they will finish at 94-68. The A’s will have to go 23-15 (.605) to catch Seattle. It can be done, but Oakland has won at just a .570-ish clip all year, so they’ll have to turn it up a notch to catch the M’s. They play each other in 6 of their final 10 games, so this could come down to the final weekend.

Let’s take those 6 games versus each other out of the equation and play with the numbers. That leaves 32 independent games. If the M’s continue to play at the pace they’ve played the last 2 months (.509), they’ll go 16-16 and have a 91-65 record (without the 6 remaining games versus Oakland). If the A’s continue at their .571 pace for those 32 games, they’ll go 18-14 and have a record of 89-67 (without the 6 remaining games versus Seattle). That leaves a 2-game separation, with those 6 games versus each other being huge.

Finally, let’s look at what the M’s and A’s have done so far and the games they have left on the schedule.
Mariners
Record vs. teams above .500 , 37-24 (.607)
Games left vs. teams above .500, 10. Expected wins--6
Record vs. teams below .500, 38-24 (.603)
Games left vs. teams below .500, 28. Expected wins—17
Expected Final Record: 98-64 (.605)

Oakland
Record vs. teams above .500, 36-35 (.507)
Games left vs. teams above .500, 9. Expected Wins—5
Record vs. teams below .500, 35-18 (.660)
Games left vs. teams below .500, 29. Expected Wins—19
Expected Final Record: 95-67

It’s still close. The A’s have beat up on teams below .500, while playing the big boys about even. Luckily for Oakland, they have 29 of 38 games remaining against teams below .500. Still, with this projection, they fall 3 games short. Any way you look at it, the last 10 days of the season should be a major factor.

UPCOMING ROTATION:
Seattle Mariners (Franklin, 8-10) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Escobar, 9-6)
Seattle Mariners (Meche, 13-8) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Towers, 2-1)
Seattle Mariners (Moyer, 15-5) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Hendrickson, 7-9)
Seattle Mariners (Pineiro, 13-8) @ Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners (Garcia, 11-12) @ Boston Red Sox

LOCAL SPIN:
The Seattle newspapers have made a point lately to attribute the M’s recent good-hitting stretch at Safeco Field to a new hitter’s background. Statistically, there haven’t been enough games played with the new background to make an educated assessment of its benefit to hitters, but the media likes to throw out carefully chosen numbers that prove their point (ignoring strength of opposition, opposing pitchers, time of day of the game, etc.), so the uneducated masses now believe that the hitter’s background at Safeco is finally “fixed.” It’s possible, but a 19-game sample isn’t enough to make that claim. You must also consider that 11 of those 19 games were against Texas, Detroit, and Toronto, who rank 14th, 12th, and 10th in ERA in the American League. Give it time before you jump to the conclusion that the new background has helped.

Another recent article focused on Jeff Cirillo, who is currently playing at AAA Tacoma. This is just the latest in a long line of “Cirillo’s Back” articles. In the off-season, the blame for Cirillo’s .249 batting average last year was laid at the feet of departed manager Lou Piniella. Well, with Piniella 3,000 miles away in Tampa Bay, and Cirillo hitting even worse this season (.210), a new reason for his poor hitting has been invented, this one being that he was taught a “toe-tap, timing mechanism” by former M’s hitting instructor Gerald Perry that messed-up his swing. Apparently, this toe-tap has been eliminated, Cirillo’s hitting woes have been cured, and he should return to Seattle anytime now.

Interestingly enough, on the same day of the Cirillo article, another local paper had a big spread about what a tough hitter’s park Safeco Field is. Unfortunately, no one locally is willing to connect the two by pointing out that Cirillo went from the best hitting park in baseball to one of the toughest places to hit. He was never as good as he looked in Coors and he isn’t as bad as he looks in Safeco. Park effects have more to do with his demise than Lou Piniella or a “toe-tap.”

FREDDY LIVES!
The roller-coaster ride continues. After allowing 7 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings against the White Sox on August 1, rumors abounded that Freddy Garcia would get one more start and could be headed to the bullpen if he was not successful. Well, he’s had 3 straight solid outings since then, going 2-1, with a 1.77 era, a 1.03 whip and 19 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. In the process, he’s made me look like a fool. Every time I pronounce him dead and buried, he comes back to life. Freddy is the perfect name for him. I’m still not ready to say he’ll be a pitching stud from here on out. Who the hell knows with Freddy? He’s had a schizophrenic season:
First 3 starts: 1-2, 6.19 ERA
Next 4 starts: 2-1, 2.39 ERA
Next 3 starts: 0-3, 11.49 ERA
Next 7 starts: 6-0, 2.12 ERA
Next 6 starts: 0-5, 11.12 ERA
Next 3 starts: 2-1, 1.77 ERA
My advice? Keep him for at least his next 3 starts, which should be against Boston, Tampa Bay, and Tampa Bay again. Boston’s a tough start, but 2 starts against Tampa Bay should help keep this streak alive. After that, you’re on your own.

SORIANO IS THE MAN!
Rafael Soriano is having an amazing season: 2-0, 1 save, 1.24 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 47 K in 36.1 INN.
Early in the year, M’s manager Bob Melvin seemed reluctant to use Soriano in clutch situations but, as Soriano continues to blow batters away, Melvin is using him more and more in crucial situations. It’s a good move. At the moment, Soriano is this year’s Francisco Rodriguez. He makes batters look silly at the plate. He threw 3 fastballs past Nomar Garciaparra over the weekend that registered 98, 96, and 98 on the radar gun.

More on the M’s bullpen: Bob Melvin has finally announced that Shigetoshi Hasegawa will remain the M’s closer. He had said all along that Kazu Sasaki would get the job back when he was fully healthy, but he’s made a smart move by keeping Shiggy in the role. Shiggy has been perfect in save situations and is having a career year: 1-0, 13 saves, 0.62 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. With Shiggy and Soriano at the end of games, and Ruben Mateo being used more and more in late-game situations, the M’s bullpen looks very solid. Arthur Rhodes (4.23 ERA this year) is a concern, and Armando Benitez is a scary thought come October, but there’s no reason to put Sasaki in the closer’s role at this point in the season. How Sasaki will handle it remains to be seen. He’s always been “the man” and might not take to a set-up role very well. Despite this, kudos to Melvin for making a smart decision here.

DOE, A DEER, A FEMALE DEER, REY—A DROP OF GOLDEN SUN . . .
Okay, I’ll admit I called Rey Sanchez a non-hitting shortstop and now here he is hitting .339 in his first 17 games for the M’s. But it’s the weakest .339 you’ll ever see. He doesn’t have an extra-base hit, he’s walked 3 times in 62 at-bats, he has 4 RBI and a single stolen base. I don’t think he’s ever hit one to the outfield where the outfielder didn’t have to run in to make the catch. He doesn’t even have warning-track power. With that gaudy .339 average, Sanchez will likely stay in the lineup at shortstop with the rumor being that Carlos Guillen will play some third base when he gets off the DL. Where that leaves Jeff Cirillo and Willie Bloomquist is unknown. Cirillo is the best-fielding third baseman on the team, but who knows about his bat? Bloomquist is hitting .250, which is better than anyone could hope for from him. The real problem here is that the M’s have 5 mediocre players who can play either shortstop or third base (Sanchez, Guillen, Cirillo, Bloomquist, and Mark McLemore). It will be interesting to see how Melvin distributes the playing time. Guillen was in the midst of the best year of his career before heading to the DL. If he can come back at that level, he should be a fixture in the lineup. If he can play an adequate third base, I’d be happy with Sanchez at short (for his defense, he won’t end the year over .300) and Guillen at third (if Guillen comes back strong from the injury).

QUICK HITS (Statistics for the month of August):
THE GOOD:
DH Edgar Martinez leads the team with a .917 OPS but only has 1 homer in 56 at-bats in August. He’s still an on-base machine (.435 OBP) and is always a recommended player for your roster.
RF Ichiro leads the team with 14 runs for the month and is hitting .333. Worth a spot.
LF Randy Winn is at .305 for August but his steals have stopped. He’s only had 1 this month. He has had 12 runs scored and 12 RBI, so it’s been a productive month so far in that regard.
CF Mike Cameron had 4 steals in the first 12 games of August but has missed the last few games with a strained groin. The M’s go on the road this week, so if Cammy is healthy, get him in your lineup.
RP Shigetoshi Hasegawa continues to put zeroes on the board. He’s pitched 7.2 innings in August, allowing just 5 base runners, striking out 6, and notching 6 saves.
RP Rafael Soriano has been the 2nd-best arm in the pen, throwing 11.2 innings with 17 K’s, a 0.77 ERA, and a 0.26 WHIP.
RP Julio Mateo rounds out a trifecta of great relievers so far in August, with a 1.42 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 2 relief wins in 12.2 innings.
SP Gil Meche has pitched well (2-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP). I still think he’s a risk because of the highest innings-pitched total of his MLB career, but so far he’s been solid.

THE BAD
1B John Olerud leads the team with 3 homers and 16 RBI in August, but with a terrible .192 batting average.
2B Bret Boone is hitting .233 with a .288 OBP and 18 strikeouts in 60 at-bats, or once every 3.3 times up.
SP Jamie Moyer has a 4.34 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP for the month. That’s not terrible, but it’s up from where he’s been all season.
SP Freddy Garcia’s stats are skewed by the terrible outing on August 1. Including that outing, he’s 2-2, 4.50, 1.36 for the month.

THE UGLY
C Dan Wilson, never a great hitter, has been very bad so far in August, with a .188 average and a lone RBI.
C Ben Davis has been even worse than Wilson, hitting .120 in August with no extra-base hits and just one walk.
SP Ryan Franklin is lucky to have a 1-1 record when you look at his 5.06 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in August.
SP Joel Pineiro has been terrible, going 0-3, with a 10.05 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP