Disastrous Road Trip

Seattle Mariners, 76-55 (.580)
Tied for 1st with the Oakland Athletics, 76-55 (.580)

IT’S DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN:
The Mariners held onto their lead in the AL West for 2 days longer this season than they did last season. Yep, last year the M’s ceded 1st place to the A’s on August 23, this year it came on August 25 after losing their season-high 6th straight game, while the A’s have won 3 straight.

A disastrous 1-7 road-trip has ended for the Mariners and now the schedule looks to ease a bit with Tampa Bay (51-78) and Baltimore (61-69) coming into Seattle for a 6-game homestand. But it’s not as easy as it would seem. Tampa Bay is 19-17 since the All-Star Break; Baltimore is 20-18. These are improved clubs. In fact, the M’s are 18-19 since the break, so the O’s and Devil Rays have both outplayed Seattle over the last 5 weeks. And don’t think Lou Piniella wouldn’t love to beat the M’s in the middle of a pennant race.

The A’s are turning it up a notch, just as they did last August and September. The M’s need to right their ship in a hurry.

TEAM HITTING--BEFORE AND AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK:
Pre-All-Star:
AVG: .278 (4th in MLB)
OBP: .348 (6th)
SLG: .428 (15th)
OPS: .775 (7th)
R: 469 (9th)
SB: 61 (tied for 6th)

Post-All-Star:
AVG: .271 (13th)
OBP: .346 (7th)
SLG: .410 (17th)
OPS: .755 (12th)
R: 184 (9th)
SB: 23 (8th)

Since the All-Star break, the M’s hitters have slumped a bit in almost every offensive category, most notably in Slugging Percentage and Batting Average. Here are the numbers for the key Mariners players:
Pre-All-Star OPS:
Boone, .963
E. Martinez, .954
Ichiro, .865
Cameron, .836
B. Davis, .824
Olerud, .762
Winn, .679
D. Wilson, .578

Post-All-Star OPS:
Boone, .783
E. Martinez, .904
Ichiro, .742
Cameron, .744
B.Davis, .374
Olerud, .736
Winn, .891
D. Wilson, .821

Difference in OPS from 1st half to 2nd half
Boone: -.180
E. Martinez: -.050
Ichiro: -.123
Cameron: -.092
B. Davis: -.450
Olerud: -.026
Winn: +.212
D. Wilson: +.143

Boone, Ichiro, and Cameron have slumped the most since the All-Star break, with Edgar down also, but still solid at .904. Ben Davis has been absolutely terrible. Olerud continues to slide, hitting just .192 in August. The brightest spot is Randy Winn, who has come on strong since the break, showing the most improvement from the first half.

TEAM PITCHING--BEFORE AND AFTER THE ALL-STAR BREAK:
Pre-All-Star:
ERA: 3.60 (3rd in MLB)
WHIP: 1.237 (2nd)
WINS: 58 (2nd)
SVS: 25 (tied for 8th)
K’s: 560 (18th)

Post-All-Star:
ERA: 4.41 (16th)
WHIP: 1.327 (14th)
WINS: 18 (tied for 14th)
SVS: 9 (tied for 13th)
K’s: 245 (9th)

The pitching has experienced a much bigger falloff, mainly in the starting rotation From top 3 in all of baseball in Wins, ERA, and WHIP in the first half, to the middle of the pack so far for the second half. Who’s responsible:
Pre-All-Star ERA:
Moyer, 3.02
Pineiro, 3.28
Meche, 3.61
Franklin, 3.75
Garcia, 4.41

Hasegawa, 0.77
Soriano, 2.63
Mateo, 3.46
Rhodes, 3.82

Post-All-Star ERA:
Moyer, 5.93
Pineiro, 4.97
Meche, 5.71
Franklin, 4.32
Garcia, 7.36

Hasegawa, 0.71
Soriano, 1.04
Mateo, 1.61
Rhodes, 5.87

Difference in ERA from 1st half to 2nd half
Moyer: +2.91
Pineiro: +1.69
Meche: +2.10
Franklin: +0.57
Garcia: +2.95

Hasegawa: -0.06
Soriano: -1.59
Mateo: -1.85
Rhodes: +2.05

Ouch! The starters are getting lit up regularly. Freddy Garcia continues his roller-coaster season, Joel Pineiro has struggled, and the wheels have fallen off the Gil Meche Express. “Mr. Tater” Ryan Franklin has shown the least amount of drop-off since the break, but he’s been quite mediocre nonetheless.

YOUNG PITCHERS STARTING TO FADE
The young guns in the M’s rotation have either passed or are on pace to pass their career high in innings pitched in a season.

Gil Meche is a huge concern because he’s experienced the biggest drop off in production so far in the 2nd-half. His career high in innings pitched is 85.2. This season, he’s on pace for 194. He’s also had major arm trouble in the past. It’s time to drop him and find someone else.

Ryan Franklin has been a borderline fantasy pitcher all year. He’s had a good ERA and WHIP, but not a great Win-Loss record, and doesn’t strike out many. Having already far exceeded his career high in innings pitched (projected to pitch 87 1/3 more innings than he ever has), Franklin doesn’t look to be a good bet from here on out. Drop him if you ever had him.

Joel Pineiro hasn’t done much lately either, but he’s the most likely of the three to rebound. Statistically, the worst month of Pineiro’s career has been August (3.89 ERA) and he usually rebounds with a good September (3.04 career ERA in September).