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For those of you expecting the standard silliness I generally put forth each week...sorry, but this week I've decided to approach the column from a serious perspective. So, there shall be no tales of roosters or my various drug addictions this weekend. Tune in next week for more of my delusional tales of splendor...a brief preview will follow this week's column.
This week I'm going to tackle the shrine of all shrines, the Baseball Hall of Fame. It is, in my opinion, the most elite of the sporting world's many different halls. The reasons behind this belief are really quite simple. The standards of the men (and women?) charged with electing future hall members in Cooperstown have remained very high over the years. It truly represents the "cream of the crop," and I fully believe that every single person in the Hall of Fame belongs there -- without a doubt. That said, though, I also think that there are a number of players that probably should be in the hall, and aren't -- but all in all, Baseball's HOF is the most indicative of the "greatest of all time." Well, except for that little Pete Rose omission...but I fully believe the time will come when that deplorable mistake will be rectified.
Anyhoo...today I'm going to give you all my opinions about the future chances of MLB's active players. What has sparked this topic in my mind this week? As any baseball fan would probably tell you, it is the talk of the 500 HR home run club -- and the virtual assurance that any player that hits this mark will find their plaque on the wall someday in that hallowed hall in Cooperstown. There are 3 players who could, and most likely will, achieve this lofty goal before this season is over. Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, and Ken Griffey Jr. will, more than likely, join Sammy Sosa (who hit #500 yesterday) as this year's entries into the 500 HR Club. This is, according to most experts, a 100% assurance that these guys are headed to the hall. This would be where the dilemma comes in, as far as I'm concerned. Two of these guys (Sosa and Griffey) are most definitely in, as far as I'm concerned...but the other two are a little more "iffy." That said, I also realize that, in terms of career totals overall, anyone could easily make the argument that McGriff and Palmeiro should be in ahead of Sosa or Griffey. Regardless, everyone out there has their own opinions about what makes a Hall of Famer, and my list of players follows...
PUT IT ON THE BOARD - these guys are in, regardless of what happens from this day on. Barry Bonds -- OF -- San Francisco Giants Career Numbers -- .295 Average, 615 HRs, 1656 RBIs, 2465 Hits, 493 SBs, 1927 BBs (2443 Games)
Why? -- Uhh...because he does wonders when it comes to selling girl scout cookies. As much as I hate this guy, he is bar none the most dominant hitter in baseball. By the time Bonds retires, he will be mentioned as one of the greatest players of all time...and, damn me for saying this, he deserves those accolades. Now, I still hope that something bad happens to him, very soon. Roger Clemens -- SP -- New York Yankees Career Numbers -- 294-151, 3.15 ERA, 3914 Ks (4073 IP)
Why? -- Another gimme here. He'll finish his career with 300 wins, 4000 K's, and an ERA somewhere in the low 3.00's. The "man among men" in terms of pitchers...though I'd wager that Randy Johnson is, by far, the better pitcher (probably Pedro as well). Ken Griffey Jr. -- OF -- Cincinnati Reds Career Numbers -- .295 Average, 469 HRs, 1359 RBIs, 2043 Hits (1865 Games)
Why? -- Griffey was, at one time, mentioned in the same breath as Mays, Aaron, Ruth, and others. Recently, he has fallen victim to some debilitating injuries...and his numbers have suffered accordingly. Still, he is only 32 years old, and the numbers that he has achieved in what essentially equates to 12 full seasons are phenomenal. He shouldn't be done...as 600 HRs, 3000 Hits, and various other accolades are definitely possible -- but, regardless of what his future may hold, he's in. Rickey Henderson -- OF -- Free Agent Career Numbers -- .279 Average, 295 HRs, 1110 RBIs, 3040 Hits, 2288 Rs, 1403 SBs (3051 Games)
Why? -- Did he officially retire? Did I miss that? I don't know. His numbers are amazing...and he is the greatest leadoff man in the history of baseball. No man will ever, and I do mean EVER, touch his SB record. By today's standards, it's virtually impossible. A top notch base stealer would need to average 50 SBs a year for 28 years just to be close to Rickey -- not gonna happen. After Bonds, Henderson is the biggest given among hitters. Randy Johnson -- SP -- Arizona Diamondbacks Career Numbers -- 224-107, 3.06 ERA, 3751 Ks (3015 IP)
Why? The Big Unit is, with all apologies to Nolan Ryan and Pedro Martinez, the most dominant pitcher that I've ever seen. His chances of making it to 300 wins or 5000 Ks are virtually nil, but if anyone can do it, Johnson can. That said, though, he has 4 straight Cy Young's and 5 overall...and I'd be willing to wager that by the time he retires, he'll have won more than 75% of his career decisions. Greg Maddux -- SP -- Atlanta Braves Career Numbers -- 273-153, 2.83 ERA, 2646 Ks (3757.1 IP)
Why? -- He is the most consistent pitcher of the modern era. Do you know when the last time that Maddux didn't win at least 15 games was? 1987 -- 15 years ago. He's put together as many as 20 wins in each of the last 15 seasons. That is a remarkable feat...not to mention his amazing control, and pinpoint efficiency. He is another shoo-in. Pedro Martinez -- SP -- Boston Red Sox
Career Numbers -- 152-63, 2.61 ERA, 2226 Ks (1899.1 IP)
Why? -- Unfortunately, Pedro has had to battle significant injury problems in recent years, and those have hindered his stats to a certain extent. That said, he's only 31 and hopefully his arm will hold up long enough for him to rack up some bigger numbers. But, if it doesn't (and don't expect it too), he's still HOF worthy. Why? He dominates in a way that only Randy Johnson dominates. When he is on his game (which he is 95% of the time), he is untouchable. Alex Rodriguez -- SS -- Texas Rangers Career Numbers -- .308 Average, 300 HRs, 876 RBIs, 1357 Hits (1118 Games)
Why? -- This will be the only "out on a limb" choice for my definites. If Rodriguez retired today, he'd be in...there isn't a doubt in my mind. Offensively and defensively, he is the best player on the field, every single day. He is the best offensive SS ever to step foot on a baseball diamond, and his numbers are remarkable for someone who's only 27. Beware record books, this guy is coming for you. Sammy Sosa -- OF -- Chicago Cubs Career Numbers -- .278 Average, 500 HRs, 1353 RBIs, 1959 Hits (1879 Games)
Why? -- Well, probably for 3 numbers more than anything else -- 66, 64, 63 (Sosa's HR totals for 98, 01, and 99 respectively). He is one of those rare sluggers that electrifies every crowd. The Sosa vs. McGwire showdown in 98 will go down as one of the best personal rivalries in the history of baseball...and Sosa will most certainly join McGwire when his time comes.
SOME DAY - these guys may make the cut, depending on what they do in the future. Eligibility -- 1250 Games, 1500 Innings -----Catchers----- Mike Piazza -- New York Mets Career Numbers: .321 Average, 347 HRs, 1073 RBIs, 1642 Hits (1394 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 2 to 1 Ivan Rodriguez -- Florida Marlins Career Numbers: .305 Average, 216 HRs, 835 RBIs, 1729 Hits (1483 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 4 to 1 -----First Basemen----- Rafael Palmeiro -- Texas Rangers Career Numbers -- .293 Average, 491 HRs, 1576 RBIs, 2636 Hits (2417 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 3 to 2 Fred McGriff -- Los Angeles Dodgers Career Numbers -- .286 Average, 479 HRs, 1506 RBIs, 2406 Hits (2352 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 2 to 1 Jeff Bagwell -- Houston Astros Career Numbers -- .302 Average, 382 HRs, 1326 RBIs, 1975 Hits (1799 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 4 to 1 Jim Thome -- Philadelphia Phillies Career Numbers -- .288 Average, 334 HRs, 928 RBIs, 1340 Hits (1381 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 7 to 1 Frank Thomas -- Chicago White Sox Career Numbers -- .313 Average, 376 HRs, 1286 RBIs, 1905 Hits (1702 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 8 to 1 -----Second Basemen----- Roberto Alomar -- New York Mets Career Numbers -- .303 Average, 201 HRs, 1071 RBIs, 2549 Hits (2187 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 6 to 1 Third Basemen -- none -----Shortstops----- Barry Larkin -- Cincinnati Reds Career Numbers -- .296 Average, 1237 Rs, 375 SBs, 2177 Hits (2003 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 5 to 1 Omar Vizquel -- Cleveland Indians Career Numbers -- For Defensive Reasons solely
Odds that he's in -- 6 to 1 -----Outfielders----- Juan Gonzalez -- Texas Rangers Career Numbers -- .296 Average, 406 HRs, 1319 RBIs, 1810 Hits (1577 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 5 to 1 Gary Sheffield -- Atlanta Braves Career Numbers -- .296 Average, 340 HRs, 1101 RBIs, 1823 Hits (1731 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 7 to 1 Larry Walker -- Colorado Rockies Career Numbers -- .316 Average, 335 HRs, 1136 RBIs, 1865 Hits (1667 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 7 to 1 Bernie Williams -- New York Yankees Career Numbers -- .308 Average, 227 HRs, 1003 RBIs, 1842 Hits (1541 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 7 to 1 Chipper Jones -- Atlanta Braves Career Numbers -- .309 Average, 253 HRs, 838 RBIs, 1423 Hits (1256 Games)
Odds that he's in -- 10 to 1 -----Pitchers----- Tom Glavine -- New York Mets Career Numbers -- 242-144, 3.38 ERA, 2056 Ks (3348.1 IP)
Odds that he's in -- 5 to 1 Curt Schilling -- Arizona Diamondbacks Career Numbers -- 155-108, 3.36 ERA, 2353 Ks (2425.1 IP)
Odds that he's in -- 8 to 1 John Smoltz -- Atlanta Braves Career Numbers -- 163-118, 3.34 ERA, 2240 Ks, 66 SVs (2555 IP)
Odds that he's in -- 9 to 1 Mike Mussina -- New York Yankees Career Numbers -- 183-102, 3.55 ERA, 1939 Ks (2460 IP)
Odds that he's in -- 10 to 1
Now, there are alot of youngsters that I left off this list. Clearly, the Hall of Fame could easily one day contain the names Derek Jeter, Nomar, Jason Giambi, Vlad Guerrero, etc. -- but these guys haven't yet done enough to merit true consideration. Due to a lack of numbers, or a lack of years, this guys still have something to prove. So, as it stands, a lot of the fantasy elite of today can't yet be called "hall of fame caliber."
There you have it. Did I forget anybody? Did I leave out any of your personal favorites? In that case, you're probably way off in your thinking -- because, as I've mentioned several times, I'm always right. Just look at my previous predictions. I picked the UK Wildcats to win the NCAA title, and, if I'm not mistaken, they've already been handed the title by default...something about a gang of midgets hijacking the SuperDome and demanding that Kentucky be crowned "or else motherf***er." I also told you all that the Reds would go undefeated and, guess what? They are. You might be wondering, how is that possible -- given the Reds were swept by Pittsburgh earlier this week? Well, because I said so b-yotch. Deal with it. Step to this and watch my whole midget mafia get buck wild. KING KONG AIN'T GOT NOTHING ON ME!!!!!
Oh, enough of this stupidity...I'm off. Me and Mike Tyson have a singing engagement tonite in Vegas. I can almost hear the panties hitting the stage as we speak. We close the show the same way every performance. We encore with Endless Love (the Lionel Ritchie/Diana Ross classic). I sing Lionel's part, and the Iron One tackles Diana's part (obviously). Then, I drag a girl on stage and Mike rapes her. Talk about your showstopper. Look for our debut album coming this fall on Murder, Inc. records -- "Midgets For Snacks." It's sure to be another "head banger."
Coming next week to MATW...
"Yak Piss" -- a sordid tale of bovine suspicion, drunken nights in the arms of "a woman of the night," and as many other sick and twisted ideas as I can force into one solid column.
Posted by Jay Schell, Bengals/Reds Correspondent at April 05, 2003 08:42 AM
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Comments
Jay.... love the column as always, but I'm gonna do a little venting of my own here, I guess.... hehe
For starters, I'd like to point out the likely members of the 500 homer club this season.... Barry and Junior are pretty much sure bets for the hall, as they were the (co) players of the '90's. Sosa's in, too.... I think that both Palmeiro and McGriff will make it, but I think you're short-changing McGriff a bit.
You give the edge to Palmeiro, which I can only assume is due to his edge in average and RBI. They'll likely both end up with 500+, so that's the magic number for homers, although Palmeiro will probably finish with a higher total, as he'll play a few more years and this may be McGriff's swan song. The one thing, ironically, that isn't taken into account here (and I do know that, with the Hall of Fame, we should be talking about individual numbers, but this definitely factors in with all HOF's) is that the only player of the four players who will surpass 500 dingers this season who has a ring is Fred McGriff, who won the series with the Braves in the mid-90's. When comparing two players who have put up virtually identical numbers, the guy who wins should get the nod.
My other major problem (much bigger than the McGriff/Palmeiro issue) is how the homer in you shone through a bit with Barry Larkin. Does he have a shot? Sure..... better than Roberto Alomar (Larkin listed as 5 to 1... Alomar 6 to 1)? Absolutely not! Obviously, they play different positions, but neither plays a major power position. When you showed Alomar's numbers, you went primarily with his power numbers (.303-201-1071.... 2,549 hits), but you did the opposite with Larkin (.296-1237 runs-375 SB's.... 2,177 hits). What's missing here? Alomar has more career runs (1414)..... Alomar has more career stolen bases (462).... he has 13 more career homers than Larkin, 180 more RBI than Larkin.... there's not a single category where Larkin could win out.
And you really missed the mark on Alomar somewhere else.... while you included Omar Vizquel "solely for defensive reasons", you forgot his former double play partner. Alomar has won ten gold gloves at second base (1991-1996, 1998-2001) as compared to Larkin's three and Vizquel's nine, each at SS). Oh..... and, again, two rings (Toronto, '92 and '93) for Robbie as compared to zero out of Larkin and Vizquel. Maybe it's just that my personal opinion is that Robbie Alomar should be a first ballott hall of famer (or at least get in at some point) as the best second baseman of our time, but I really think you treated him unfairly. Just as a final argument, I'll point out that Alomar was an All Star every season from 1990-2001 and has had five top ten MVP showings.
And now, I'll move onto players who could get in, not necessarily because of their career numbers, but because of external factors. Walker, who you have listed as a longshot, is clearly the best Canadian baseball player of all time, and that may give him a boost. Palmeiro would be the first (that I can think of, at least) Cuban in the Hall of Fame, which would boost his voting total a bit.
Sorry to bring a little sanity to your column's comment box, but what the hell ;)
Jim...I have absolutely no problem whatsoever with any of your opinions here.
First off, about Alomar. I spent more time trying to nail down an accurate odds for him, than any other portion of the article. All of your points are valid, and believe me when I say that I took all of those issues into account. So, let me throw out some of my thought processes here. First, I'd be shocked if he doesn't eventually make it to the hall...but, I will stick to my guns in my belief that Barry Larkin has a slight (very small but there nonetheless) edge on him in the HOF race. Alright, now as to why.
First of all, Alomar has a tarnished image (the umpire spitting incident, his recent struggles); Barry doesn't. Barry is, perhaps, one of the most respected men in baseball -- and I realize that his production has fallen off pretty quickly in recent years, but so has his health. I agree that Alomar was the best 2B in baseball for a long period of time, and, for that reason alone, he could easily pull off the "first ballot entry." But (we could probably argue this one for awhile), Barry Larkin was one of the two best SSs in baseball, and IMO, it's a position that requires alot more than 2B. As for the difference in stats. #1 Alomar has alot more gold gloves than Larkin or Vizquel -- but Alomar didn't have to contend with the likes of Ozzie Smith or ARod/Jeter/Nomar. The gold glove competition at 2B during Alomar's run was virtually nonexistent. #2 As for actual stats...I'd assert that Alomar hit early in the lineup ahead of a great offensive machine -- thus the lead in Runs and RBIs. Alomar is vastly superior, though, in both power and speed. That, I agree with. #3 As for the ring issue, unlike football or basketball, I don't really think that it comes into play as much in selecting baseball HOFers. That said, though, Larkin does have one...as many people seem to forget. The Reds did win it all in 90, and he was a key part of that squad.
Regardless, they both have a pretty good shot at it...and, I believe that they will probably both one day make it in. Clearly, I'm a Reds fan, so I won't be so bold as to say that I can be 100% objective in my analysis of Reds players...but I will stick to my guns on the issue.
As for Palmeiro and the Crime Dog...I'm fairly positive that they're both shoo-ins -- but I don't necessarily agree with that. Why? Well, it's probably just a personal issue in this case. When I think about HOF-caliber players, those 2 names just don't pop into my head. Never have, never will. The stats and career accomplishments are obviously there to support their induction, but I still had keep them off my "in" list -- solely because if it was up to me, they wouldn't be in. I've already mentioned the ring issue, so I'll leave that out. I gave the edge to Palmeiro simply because, in my mind, he's a better player. And the edge was only .5, so clearly they're very close.
And as for Walker...my only issue with him is the fact that he plays in Colorado -- and I believe that when his time comes around, that will be a significant issue.
So, there you have some of my twisted logic...
And, hey...I put out a serious column for once, so I'm happy to see a serious response. You know I respect your opinion...so I'm more than happy to argue my point.
Damn you Jay! This is why Griffey got hurt! You assured he would reach 500 by the end of the year. You know I'm not really mad at you......ok maybe a little, but anyway great article, adn I only have a few spots that I would like to take up with you.
Frank Thomas at 8-1? He has put together some of the most dominating seasons in baseball history, and if it weren't for him being a complete ass, he would be a lock in most people's minds.
Also I don't consider Manny Ramirez to really be a youngster, and I think he definitally deserves to be in the Hall even if he only puts up .315 years with 30 HR and 110 RBI, which he should do easily for another 7 years.
Thank you for recognizing arguably the best defensive infielder of alltime (and I am not afraid to take the beating for saying that) Omar Vizquel. he was and still is truly amazing. The only thing that hurts him is he makes so many amazing plays seem not only easy but routine that we have come to expect them day in and day out. We loose sight of how good they truly are. Also it's not like he was an offensive scrub. He didn't have power numbers, but he always stole bases and hit for average. He has been a fizture in Cleveland in the number two slot since the early 90's, and I don't care if there are youngsters coming in that need to play he deserves to finish out his career here, and he can stay until he can't do the job anymore.
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