If At First - 2005 First Basemen
February 11, 2005
by Chris Wang
Overview
First base is the deepest position on the diamond and that should discount some of their price tags in auction drafts. Almost every single major league team has a first baseman that can hit for power or has significant power potential - last season had 19 first basemen hit 20+ homers - so many fantasy squads will end up with two first basemen at the end of the draft. Derrek Lee and Brad Wilkerson offer the rare speed/power combination while virtually no other first baseman offers much speed. If you end up with a weak hitting first baseman on draft day, you better be in an AL or NL-only league. Keep in mind that Travis Hafner and Erubiel Durazo have lost their first base eligibility and only qualify as utility players.
Rather than hear my opinions on every draftable first baseman, I'll try to keep a bit more succinct and to the point. If you want more info on a specific player that I don't go into, feel free to email me and I'll be sure to help you out. If you're looking for auction values, please go to the
player rankings page.
Rounds are figured on a basic twelve team standard 5X5 league
1st-3rd Round
Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Mark Teixeira
4th-6th Round
David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, Aubrey Huff, Derek Lee
7th-10th Round
Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko, Richie Sexson, Mike Piazza
11th-16th Round
Sean Casey, Shawn Green, Brad Wilkerson, Phil Nevin, Jeff Bagwell, Casey Blake
17th-23rd Round
Craig Wilson, Pedro Feliz, Ben Broussard, Kevin Millar, Tino Martinez, Mike Sweeney, Dmitri Young, Carlos Pena
Injuries in 2004 - Bargains in 2005?
Last year, the Diamondbacks traded 5 major leaguers for Richie Sexson; but he ended up playing in just 23 games thanks to a dislocated shoulder that cost him most of the season. The D'Backs didn't try very hard to sign Sexson and he ended up signing a big deal with the Mariners. The move to Seattle is bad news for fantasy owners as Sexson moves to one of the best pitchers parks in the game. As long as he's healthy, he should hit .270 with 30+ homers for the Mariners, but his shoulder injury is a serious risk as some believe his power will never return to its old form. Don't be overly aggressive drafting Sexson but if he stays on the board too long, he's definitely worth the risk.
Mike Sweeney has been slowed by injuries for the past three years as he hasn't topped 108 games in the last two. Back injuries have nagged him and they tend to linger from year to year. When he's in the lineup, he can still hit as he hit .287/.347/504 with 22 homers and 79 RBI in just 106 games last year. The Royals shut him down early last season so one hopes that the rest will do fantasy managers some good in 2005. Take him in the last couple rounds of the draft.
Dmitri Young doesn't give you the versatility of years past but he can still swing a potent bat. He broke a bone in his left leg on a freak tag play in the second game of the season and that cost him two months. He'll be undervalued come draft day and will have the best players surrounding him in years with Pudge and newly signed Magglio Ordonez in the heart of the order. Don't expect his 2003 year of .297-29-85, but he should hit 20+ homers and will be most valuable in AL-only leagues.
Nick Johnson may be the king of the freak injury as he's had chronic wrist and hand injuries and his last season was cut when he was hit in the face with a bad-hop grounder - he played in just 73 games last year and 96 the year before. If he's in the lineup, there's no question that he has incredible patience and would likely hit 20+ homers but his injury bug just is too much to ignore. Only take a chance in NL-only leagues.
Ready for Takeoff
The Twins took their time getting Justin Morneau in the lineup and you can be sure that he'll be batting in the heart of Twins order until he becomes a free agent. In just 74 games, he hit .271/.340/.536 with 17 doubles, 19 homers and 58 RBI. If there's one guy to move up on draft day, it's Morneau. He should easily hit 30+ homers and drive in 100+ as he'll likely bat cleanup for the Twins.
Ben Broussard is very different than Morneau as it has taken Broussard a couple of years to develop into a solid everyday player. Last season he made major strides forward as he improved his hitting and fielding to remove any doubt that he should be in the starting lineup everyday for the youthful Tribe. He learned to hit lefties as he hit .362/.429/.652 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in 69 at-bats - the previous year he hit just .175/.250/.272 in 103 at-bats. In the second half Broussard was one of the best hitters in the game hitting .300/.395/.595 with 13 doubles, 13 homers and 43 RBI. Expect him to hit .280 with 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.
Carlos Pena is a risky pick with high upside. His average is never going to be much more than .250 as he takes walks which gives him a solid OBP in real life. He struggled in the first half (.233-11-47), but he turned it up in the second half hitting .250/.362/.513 with 16 homers and 35 RBI. In August he hit .308-6-17 and in September .233-8-14. He'll need to produce that kind of power consistently to be more valuable on the fantasy front. To stomach his .240 average, he'll need to hit 30+ homers to stay in my lineup.
Mark Teixeira?!?! I know he hit .281/.370/.560 with 34 doubles, 38 homers and 112 RBI so its hard to get much better but he's just 24-years-old, hits in a great ballpark and will continue to improve. Last season he improved his walk rate while improving his power numbers - a very good sign. If there's an early pick with some upside, it's Teixeira.
I don't completely believe in Adam LaRoche because he's never hit more than 13 homers in any professional season but that doesn't mean that it isn't going to happen. This rookie tried pulling too many pitches in the early part of the year but as he got more comfortable, he drove the ball to all parts of the park. He finished extremely strong hitting .298-4-10 in August and .348-4-14 in September. If the Braves continue to sit him against lefties (5-20), his upside is probably capped at around 20 homers.
Veterans - What's Left in the Tank?
The Yankees are try to recapture their World Series magic by bringing back Tino Martinez who was a key member of their "Dynasty" but will he bring back his fantasy production? Tino still swings a good bat and his peripheral numbers last season (.262/.362/.461) were very similar to his 2001 season (.280/.329/.501) with the Yanks where he hit .280-34-113. Tino loves the short porch in right and he'll be a good late round choice as he's capable of .260-28-100 in the Yanks lineup.
Jeff Bagwell is a warrior plain and simple, but you have to wonder how much the soon to be 38-year-old has left in his tank. The last time he's missed more than 6 games in a season is 1998, but since having surgery on his shoulder in 2001, his shoulder hasn't been the same. He admitted that it is now affecting his swing and that is troublesome news for a player on the wrong side of 30. Last year he didn't reach the 30 homer mark for the first time since '95. He still may crank out around 25 homers but don't count on his 2003 season of .278-39-100.
Last season Ryan Klesko's power disappeared like G.W.'s military records. Klesko hit just 9 homers in 402 at-bats?!?! Last offseason he had offseason shoulder surgery and he was unable to engage in his normal weight-lifting regiment, but that was only half the story. Perhaps the bigger reason was that Petco played as an extreme pitchers park, where players hit 30% fewer homers than the league average - keep this in mind when drafting the Padres hitters. Since the Pads aren't moving the huge power alleys in, this trend will not change is 2005. Klesko is bound to do a bit better but don't expect much more than 20 dingers.
Roll the Dice with Late Round Picks - Low Risk, High Reward
Jason Giambi is no longer juiced on steroids but I believe the key question is: is he healthy? If he is, he's got to be better than the .208/.342/.379 hitter that he was last season. The year before he was still a force hitting .250-41-107. Keep an eye on him early this spring to see if he is a shell of himself or if he's driving the ball. He could have enormous upside with a late round pick.
Who would have thought that trading Hee Seop Choi to the Dodgers would be like sending Superman to a kryptonite mining town? Choi was having a solid season in Florida hitting .270/.388/.495 with 15 homers and 40 RBI in 95 games; after being traded to the Dodgers he hit .161/.289/.242 with NO homers and 6 RBI in 62 at-bats. His career numbers are Dodger Stadium are frighteningly bad .172/.294/.276 (0 homers) but its a small sample size of 29 at-bats. Is he afraid of what Kobe might do to him in a dark hotel room? If he can find his swing again, he should be good for 20+ homers which is good for NL-only leagues, but considering he's been traded twice in two years has to be a bit worrisome - what's wrong with him?
Cal Pickering will have to fight for at-bats in KC but how can the lowly Royals not give him a chance. He obliterated Triple-A pitching hitting .314/.451/.712 with 35 homers and 85 RBI in just 89 games! Those are some sick numbers. He wasn't that good when he was called up but he held his own hititng .246/.338/.500 with 7 homers and 26 RBI in 35 games - project that out to 162 games and you get 32 homers and 120 RBI. When you consider Ken Harvey got 456 at-bats while Pickering was crushing Triple-A pitching, you know why the Royals fester in the cellar year to year.
Casey Kotchman is a guy to pick up in keeper leagues as well as AL-only leagues. He's viewed as the top pure first base hitting prospect in the minors as he hit .372 at Double-A and Triple-A last year. He got his first taste of the majors last year and didn't strike out until his 48th plate appearance. He hasn't developed much power yet hitting just 8 homers in 515 at-bats but scouts believe he'll hit at least 20-25 homers once he learns to lift the ball more. His health is an issue as he had trouble staying healthy in his three previous seasons. If Erstad gets injured, Kotchman may force him back to the outfield.
If you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at cwang@fantasyinfocentral.com.
Fantasy Baseball 
Good job!!!!
Good job!!!!
He only qualifies at DH this year (just 11 games at 1B).