Turning Two - Second Basemen 2005
February 14, 2005
On Deck is on hiatus from February 19th to March 6th as Chris is travelling to the Far East scouting out the talent in Cambodia, Thailand and Hong Kong. Sorry for the inconvenience in the middle of draft season.
by Chris Wang
Yes sir, On Deck is back for the third time in a week! We're bringing you FICs crash course positional analysis before fantasy signups begin, which we hope are sometime this week. If you missed the catcher or first basemen breakdown, you can check out those articles by clicking on the links to the right listed under "Latest On Deck Entries."
Overview
Second base is the thinnest position on the diamond after catchers but it has more depth than in recent years with Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, Ryan Freel and Chase Utley making surprising contributions last year. Second base brings a nice blend of veterans (Kent, Loretta, Boone, Vidro) and young up and comers (Reyes, Utley) which should allow a standard 12-team league to all have a quality second baseman this year.
The position only has one significant loss in Michael Young who moved to shortstop - Rob Mackowiak and Jerry Hairston also lose eligibility in 2005.
Rounds are figured on a basic twelve team standard 5X5 league
If you're looking for auction values and/or player rankings, please go to the player rankings page.
1st-3rd Round
Alfonso Soriano
4th-6th Round
Marcus Giles, Mark Loretta
7th-10th Round
Jeff Kent, Bret Boone, Jose Vidro, Jose Reyes, Chone Figgins
11th-16th Round
Luis Castillo, Ray Durham, Tony Womack
17th-23rd Round
Juan Uribe, Mark Bellhorn, Chase Utley, Mike Cuddyer, Ryan Freel, Kaz Matsui, Placido Polanco, Brian Roberts, Tadahito Iguchi
Veteran Expectations
At first glance, Jeff Kent's fantasy value looks like it plummets moving from cozy Minute Maid Park to the pitcher's paradise of Dodger Stadium, but upon closer inspection one shouldn't downgrade his value too much. In his career at Dodger Stadium, Kent has hit .250/.316/.441 with 12 homers and 35 RBI in 256 at-bats. Those numbers are well below his career averages but I'd argue that he should hit around .265 with 25 homers and 100 RBI, as long as he stays healthy and at 37 come opening day that is questionable I admit. Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park that robs hitters mostly of doubles and triples but it plays neutral to home run hitters. This is good news on the fantasy front as Kent should still hit with power but probably won't score as many runs.
Bret Boone got stuck in the mud last season like the entire Mariners squad hitting just .195 in May and .213 in June. He rebounded in the second half (.267/.335/.465 with 13 homers and 47 RBI) and should benefit from having Beltre and Sexson in the heart of the Mariner order. Boone's nagging back problems clearly affected his performance and could be a ongoing concern at the age of 36.
Tony Womack pulled off a serious shocker last year as he turned in his career year at 35 hitting .307/.439/.385 with 91 runs, 5 homers, 38 RBI and 26 steals. He joins a highly potent Yankee lineup and appears to be pencilled in as their leadoff hitter though he won't stay there long if his OBP drops back to his career average of .319. I'd be shocked if Womack comes close to his 2004 season but if he can hit .270 with 90 runs, 40 RBI and 25 steals, he'll be a top 12 fantasy second baseman.
Oh Here They Come
Chase Utley gets the starting nod at second base this season and he should produce a more consistent season with his name on the lineup card everyday. Last year he showed his gap power hitting .266/.308/.468 with 13 homers and 57 RBI in 94 games. He should continue to mature as a hitter and given 500 at-bats, he should hit 20+ homers.
Mike Cuddyer is slated to start at third for the Twins but he also qualifies at second and outfield giving you some nice fantasy versatility in 2004. Viewed as having 30+ homer potential, the Twins used Cuddyer in a utility role last year filling in for injured Koskie, Rivas and Morneau. He had a solid second half hitting .287/.378/.487 with 7 homers and 18 RBI in 150 at-bats. He committed 7 errors in 43 games at third base so he'll need to improve his glovework to stay at the hot corner on a daily basis.
What is an offseason without a Japanese import? This year brings the White Sox Tadahito Iguchi who signed with far less fanfare than Ichiro or either Matsui. According to mlb.com, scouts and agents who have watched Iguchi classify him as an impact player at any level of competition. He's a potential No. 2 hitter with great speed and power to the gaps. Iguchi won the Pacific League stolen base title in 2001 and 2003, earned 3 Gold Gloves and was named an All-Star four times. Last season for the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks, Iguchi hit .333/.394/.549 with 34 doubles, 24 homers, 89 RBI and 18 steals in 124 games. If he hits .280 with 12-15 homers and 10 steals, it should be considered a success. He's probably not worth a pick in mixed leagues, but he'll be worth a shot in AL-only leagues.
Gimpy Gambles
Jose Reyes is moving back to shortstop this season but in fantasy leagues, he still qualifies at second base. In two years, Reyes has showcased his talent when in the lineup unfortunately he spent more than 100 games on the DL last season. Reyes, 21, has been fragile and a slow healer to boot - he's had recurring hamstring problems and then he broke a bone in his foot that cost him the last month and a half. In 53 games, he hit .255/.271/.373 with 16 doubles, 2 triples, 2 homers, 14 RBI and 19 steals. Reyes is a high risk, high reward pick because if he stays healthy, he should be a top 3 second baseman due to his steals alone. Roll the dice this season...
Junior Spivey's breakout season in 2002 (.301-16-78-11) is now a distant memory as his injuries have hounded him throughout his career. Over the last two seasons, he's had ankle, hamstring and shoulder injuries. Last year he played in just 59 games hitting .272/.359/.421 with 7 homers, 28 RBI and 5 steals. If Spivey is healthy, he can rebound to .270 with mid-teens power and double-digit steals.
Marcus Giles is a great pick, not a gamble, around the sixth round and he could fall further in many leagues after a broken collarbone cost him a third of the last season. Rookie owners will believe that his 2003 season (.361-21-69-14) was a fluke, but the well informed will know it was his 2004 season (.311-8-48-17) that was a fluke due to a freak collision with Andruw Jones.
Ray Durham was a extremely durable player from '96-'02 playing in 150+ games every season, but in the last two he has played in 110 and 120 respectively. Despite missing 40 games last season with various leg problems, he hit .282/.364/.484 with 95 runs, 17 homers, 65 RBI and 10 steals. Durham will never return to his 20+ steal days, but he should be good for .280 with 90 runs, 15+ homers and 60+ RBI.
If you want more info on a specific player that I didn't go into or if you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at cwang@fantasyinfocentral.com.
Fantasy Baseball 
Assuming Ginter gets 500+ AB, you're probably looking at 25 homers and 80 RBI. His average won't blow you away and he won't steal more than ten bases, but he could be a surprise top 5-7 second baseman based on the scarcity at the position.
Bank on 450 ABs between 2b, DH, and the occasional start to rest Eric Chavez at third and grab him late.