Enter Sandman: Sleepers
March 16, 2005
by Chris Wang
It doesn't take six degrees of separation to link Kevin Bacon to sleepers, in fact it only takes one as he was in a film called "Sleepers" in 1996. Personally I didn't see the film and I don't recommend watching it to find out this years best sleeper picks.
So FIC is finally getting to everyone's favorite fantasy topic as evidenced by the many topics on our message board. It makes perfect sense as it's the players with upside late in the draft that will have a bigger impact than a first round pick more times than not. Whether it’s a snake draft or a auction draft, the winning fantasy manager must be able to make great picks either late in the draft or for single digit prices to finish the year with bragging rights.
While you may have been expecting an in-depth piece on outfielders this week, I decided that no one wanted to sift through my thoughts on 70-80 outfielders. So if you want some more info on outfielders, please check out our player rankings for auction value dollars and if you have any specific questions, feel free to email me and I'll email you back or even incorporate your question into an upcoming column.
CATCHER
Miguel Olivo has been named the starting catcher in Seattle and Olivo should develop into a solid fantasy option though it may not be in 2005. Scouts believe he has 20-homer power but he'll need to improve his batting eye/patience to become a more consistent threat. His batting average (.234) and on-base percentage (.286) have been steady in his first two years but his power improved last year despite a terrible September slump (0-31). Double-digit steals would be gravy from a catcher.
Brandon Inge provides the Tigers (and fantasy managers) versatility as he qualifies at catcher, third base and outfield. He had a career year in 2004 hitting .287/.340/.453 with 13 homers and 64 RBI. His improved BB/SO rate should mean continued success in '05, but his previous two years of .202/.266/.336 were frighteningly bad. For comfort, Inge has been on fire this spring hitting .440 (11-25) with 4 homers and 10 RBI.
John Buck has been a favorite sleeper pick on the FIC message boards and his power is undoubtedly intriguing. If you simply double his numbers from last year you get .235-24-60 in 142 games. That's overly simplistic and pitchers will exploit his weaknesses a bit more in 2005. Injuries have plagued Buck in the minors, but if he's healthy he should hit 15-20 homers but don't expect a high average from the free swinger that struck out 79 times in 238 at-bats last season.
It's tough to call any Colorado player a sleeper because every single hitter draws interest due to the mile high factor. JD Closser has a lot to prove but his talent is definitely enough to make him worth a late round pick. In his rookie debut, he hit .319/.364/.398 with 1 homer and 10 RBI in 113 at-bats. In the minors he's shown a good batting eye with mid-teens power. The thin Colorado air should help him reach similar numbers.
FIRST BASE
Cleveland had Travis Hafner step up to the next level last year and this year should be Ben Broussard's turn. Last season he made major strides forward as he improved his hitting and fielding to remove any doubt that he should be in the starting lineup everyday for the youthful Tribe. He learned to hit lefties as he hit .362/.429/.652 with 3 homers and 22 RBI in 69 at-bats - the previous year he hit just .175/.250/.272 in 103 at-bats. In the second half Broussard made a slight adjustment with his hands and it paid off as he hit .300/.395/.595 with 13 doubles, 13 homers and 43 RBI. Expect him to hit .280 with 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.
Carlos Pena is a risky pick with high upside. His average is never going to be much more than .250 as he takes walks which gives him a solid OBP in real life. He struggled in the first half (.233-11-47), but he turned it up in the second half hitting .250/.362/.513 with 16 homers and 35 RBI. In August he hit .308-6-17 and in September .233-8-14. He'll need to produce that kind of power consistently to be more valuable on the fantasy front. To stomach his .240 average, he'll need to hit 30+ homers to stay in my lineup.
Who would have thought that trading Hee Seop Choi to the Dodgers would be like sending Superman to a kryptonite mining town? Choi was having a solid season in Florida hitting .270/.388/.495 with 15 homers and 40 RBI in 95 games; after being traded to the Dodgers he hit .161/.289/.242 with NO homers and 6 RBI in 62 at-bats. His career numbers are Dodger Stadium are frighteningly bad .172/.294/.276 (0 homers) but it’s a small sample size of 29 at-bats. If he can find his swing again, he should be good for 20+ homers which is good for NL-only leagues, but considering he's been traded twice in two years has to be a bit worrisome - why are teams giving up on him so quickly?
Cal Pickering will have to fight for at-bats in KC but how can the lowly Royals not give him a chance. He obliterated Triple-A pitching hitting .314/.451/.712 with 35 homers and 85 RBI in just 89 games! Those are some sick numbers. He wasn't that good when he was called up but he held his own hitting .246/.338/.500 with 7 homers and 26 RBI in 35 games - project that out to 162 games and you get 32 homers and 120 RBI. When you consider Ken Harvey (.738 OPS) got 456 at-bats while Pickering was crushing Triple-A pitching, you know why the Royals fester in the cellar year to year.
SECOND BASE
Kaz Matsui was a huge disappointment for the Mets in 2004; but he's looked very comfortable at second base this spring and he should have a much better offensive season in 2005. Matsui admitted that he needed to pace himself better over the longer season and that was a key factor in a back injury that cost him much of the second half. While he got off to a slow start last year, he hit .336/.384/.500 with 2 homers and 14 RBI in July before going down with an injury in August. Look for Matsui to hit .280 with 15+ homers and 20+ steals.
The D'Rays inexplicably signed Roberto Alomar and his declining skills when they have Jorge Cantu ready to contribute at the major league level. With Alomar already a bit gimpy, expect Cantu to take over permanently early in the season. Last year, Cantu, 23, hit .302/.335/.576 with 33 doubles, 22 homers and 80 RBI in 95 games at Triple-A; then he hit .301/.341/.462 with 20 doubles, 2 homers and 17 RBI in 50 major league games.
Kansas City's Ruben Gotay is another youngster to watch in 2005. While he'll likely start the year at Triple-A, Gotay has shown good patience with power in the minors. Last season at Double-A, he hit .289/.372/.441 with 9 homers, 68 RBI and 8 steals in 105 games. In his short stint with KC, his patience wasn't as good neither was his power; but at just 22-years-old, Gotay should be a fixture in the KC infield in short order.
Junior Spivey's breakout season in 2002 (.301-16-78-11) is now a distant memory as his injuries have hounded him throughout his career. Over the last two seasons, he's had ankle, hamstring and shoulder injuries. Last year he played in just 59 games hitting .272/.359/.421 with 7 homers, 28 RBI and 5 steals. If Spivey is healthy, he can rebound to .270 with mid-teens power and double-digit steals.
THIRD BASE
Mike Cuddyer is slated to start at third for the Twins but he also qualifies at second and outfield giving you some nice fantasy versatility in 2004. Viewed as having 30+ homer potential, the Twins used Cuddyer in a utility role last year filling in for injured Koskie, Rivas and Morneau. He had a solid second half hitting .287/.378/.487 with 7 homers and 18 RBI in 150 at-bats. He committed 7 errors in 43 games at third base so he'll need to improve his glovework to stay at the hot corner on a daily basis.
Dallas McPherson has a back injury which is never good news. If he can get on the field, he should hit immediately at the major league level. He needs to make more contact though as he struck out 186 times last season in 562 at-bats. His power has been compared to Adam Dunn - he hit 43 homers last season. Don't expect much better than a .240-.250 batting average but his power will be there.
Russ Branyan may swing through more pitches in one season than Barry Bonds does in his career but that doesn't mean he isn't valuable in fantasyland. He's crushing the ball this spring and should get the better side of the third base platoon with Wes Helms. Last season Branyan hit .234/.324/.525 with 11 homers and 27 RBI in 51 games. His average is a killer but his power is certainly worth a flier especially in NL-only leagues.
SHORTSTOP
Adam Everett was having a breakout season before going down with a left wrist injury in August. This is good news for fantasy owners as he'll likely slip further than he should on draft day. Last season he hit .273/.317/.385 with 8 homers, 31 RBI and 13 steals in 104 games. He should be good for teens power and 15-20 steals.
BJ Upton is on the verge of stardom but he probably won't break camp with the Devil Rays as he needs to prove he can handle shortstop defensively (he committed 7 errors in 16 games last year with the Rays). His talent with the bat is unquestionable and Lou Pinella compared him to a young Alex Rodriguez. At Triple-A, Upton hit .311/.411/.519 with 12 homers, 36 RBI and 17 steals in 69 games. Making his major league debut at 19-years-old, Upton hit .258/.324/.409 with 4 homers and 12 RBI in 159 at-bats. Stash him on your bench as he should get a quick call-up in 2005.
Clint Barmes is no where near Upton in terms of talent but the thin air of Colorado brings him immediate attention amongst fantasy owners. Last season at Triple-A Colorado Springs, Barmes hit .323/.372/.500 with 42 doubles, 16 homers, 50 RBI and 19 steals. Barmes, 26, handled major league pitching in his September stint (.282-2-10). Expect mid-teens power with double-digit steals.
Jhonny Peralta was the MVP of the International League last season as he hit .329/.386/.496 with 44 doubles, 15 homers, 88 RBI and 8 steals. He's struggled in his limited major league at-bats hitting just .228/.297/.280 but he should come around with more time. His glove (27 errors) will have to improve to keep his bat in the lineup.
Russ Adams is a prototypical line-drive hitter that should fit nicely into the 2-hole in the Jays lineup. Last season at Triple-A, he hit .288/.351/.408 with 37 doubles, 5 homers, 53 RBI and 5 steals. Adams is a gap hitter that will produce lots of doubles, but his lack of power will hurt him in terms of fantasy value. He should be able to get his steals into the teens.
OUTFIELD
Craig Monroe is about as effective stealing belts from department stores as he is at stealing bases - he gets caught most of the time. After a slow start, Monroe cut down on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate to have a great second half where he hit .321/.369/.638 with 15 homers and 40 RBI in 196 at-bats. If Monroe can translate that success over a full season, Detroit will have a solid 30 homer man.
Curtis Granderson in another Tiger that should see action in 2005. He'll start the year at Triple-A, but he should be called quickly if he lives up to his potential. Last season at Double-A, he hit .303/.407/.513 with 21 homers, 93 RBI and 11 steals in 122 games. He's the Tigers centerfielder of the very near future.
Three Tigers in a row?!? I know you wonder what I'm smoking but just listen for a minute. The Tigers just released Alex Sanchez and Nook Logan is the reason why. He has Sanchez's offensive ability but with far superior defense. Last season at Triple-A, Logan hit .265/.305/.356 with 2 homers, 28 RBI and 38 steals. Logan is one of the fastest players in the minors but his pathetic on-base percentage and lack of power probably shouldn't be in the lineup everyday - but this is the Tigers after all.
Coco Crisp sounds like a breakfast cereal and he makes for a solid 5-tool fantasy threat. Last season he hit .297/.344/.446 with 24 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI and 20 steals. The 25-year-old improved throughout the year as he cut down on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate in the second half. Look for a big year from Crisp as 20-20 should be easily reachable for the Cleveland centerfielder.
Alex Rios showed his potential last year for the Jays hitting .284/.336/.380 with 24 doubles, 7 triples, 1 homer, 27 RBI and 15 steals in 111 games. He was disappointing in terms of power as he hit just 4 homers between Triple-A and Toronto but he's showed power in the past and at 24-years-old, Rios should take another step forward in his development. His offensive game looks a lot like Vernon Wells but with a bit more speed. Expect double-digit homers and 15-20 steals.
Richard Hidalgo is a veteran moving to one of the best hitters parks in the game, Arlington. Last season he hit 21 homers for the Mets though his .228 average left a lot to be desired. Hidalgo is still only 29 and should be in for a big year. Look for him to hit .280 with 30 homers and 100+ RBI.
Matt Holliday has the Coors factor going for him as well as great raw power. He has decent strike zone judgement and should be a 20+ homer man with the Rockies. Last season he hit .290/.349/.488 with 31 doubles, 14 homers and 57 RBI in 121 games. Expect around 25 homers and 100 RBI from Holliday though you shouldn't be surprised if his batting average falls to around .260-.270.
The key to David DeJesus is to stay healthy. Unfortunately his hard nosed style of play often leaves him with nagging injuries. When healthy, DeJesus can be a solid leadoff man with a .400+ OBP. Last season for the Royals, he hit .284/.358/.399 with 15 doubles, 7 homers, 39 RBI and 8 steals in 96 games. DeJesus has the potential to be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and this season he should hit with low-teens power and around 15 steals.
Brady Clark is a guy that will slip through the cracks since he plays in Milwaukee. With Podsednik now in Chicago, Clark in slated to play centerfield and bat leadoff for the Brew Crew. Last season, Clark matured as a hitter taking more walks and hitting .280/.385/.397 with 7 homers, 46 RBI and 15 steals. Expect Clark to take another step forward and hit .270-.280 with low-teens power and 25+ steals.
Jayson Werth is recovering from a broken arm and may not be ready for opening day. He's expected to start in left field after a strong showing last year hitting .262/.338/.486 with 16 homers and 47 RBI in 89 games. If he can stay healthy, Werth should hit 20-25 homers with 80-90 RBI.
Raul Mondesi is a player that most fantasy managers love to hate as veteran managers know that he's underachieved for most of his career. Last year was the first time I ever drafted Mondy and he totally burned me as he hit just .241-3-15 as he basically quit playing for the Pirates and then karma payed him back with an injury after he signed with Anaheim. Atlanta puts something special in the water and it wouldn't surprise me if Mondesi bounced back to hit .270-20-80-15.
Jeremy Reed vaulted himself into elite prospect status in 2003 when he hit .409/.474/.591 in 242 at-bats in Double-A. He fell back to earth in 2004 hitting .275/.355/.420 with 8 homers, 37 RBI and 12 steals in 73 games at Triple-A; then was impressive in his first taste of major league ball hitting .397/.470/.466. Reed is going to be a three category hitter in fantasy providing a solid average of around .300, runs scored and 20-25 steals.
If you want more info on a specific player that I didn't go into or if you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at cwang@fantasyinfocentral.com.
Fantasy Baseball 
Will there be a pitchers version later?
dont count out Ledezma, he might be destined for the bullpen but he has some good stuff and could prove valuable for the Tigers
Id keep Curtis Granderson if I was them though.
That's true.
Reed, Holliday, DeJesus & clark.
Let me try again.
Reed, Holliday, Rios, DeJesus & Cark.