On-Deck

This is how it's gonna be... 2005 Predictions by Chris Wang

Less than a week to go before the season starts and as a fan, I'm chomping at the bit counting down the hours. After last season's playoffs and the breaking of the curse, I wonder what 2005 will bring to the game.

Draft season is down to its final days and it's time for On Deck's predictions for 2005. First the standings... (Warning: standings may appear nothing like this at the end of the year)

ALCS: Red Sox vs. Yankees
NLCS: Marlins vs. Cubs
World Series: Red Sox vs. Cubs
WS Champion: Cubs - the Revenge of Nomar

While I'm at it, I'll hand out the post-seasons awards. Why wait...

AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Manny Ramirez
CY Young: Randy Johnson
ROY: Jeremy Reed

NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Albert Pujols
Cy Young: AJ Burnett
ROY: Garrett Atkins

Since this is a fantasy baseball column that focuses on hitters, let's take a stroll through each team and see who is the most overvalued and undervalued hitter on each team.

AL East

Boston Red Sox
No Pedro? No problem. Clement, Wells, Miller more than make up for their former ace. The offense actually added some punch with Renteria.
Overvalued: Johnny Damon. Damon set career highs in runs, homers, RBI, OBP and SLG. Expect a slight dropoff in his numbers across the board.
Undervalued: Trot Nixon. Back injury cost him much of 2004. He'll platoon this season but he's just two years removed from hitting .306/.396/.578 with 28 homers and 87 RBI in 134 games.

New York Yankees
RJ challenges 30 wins. Pavano, Wright, Brown all disappoint.
Overvalued: Tony Womack. I picked him as overvalued last year and he had a career year setting bests in batting average (.307), OBP (.349) and SLG (.385). He moves from the top of the order in St. Louis to #9 in the Yanks but he should still score runs and steal some bases which gives him value - just expect closer to his career .274 batting average.
Undervalued: Jason Giambi. The steroid cloud looms heavily above him but he's looked good this spring (.295-3-5) and if he can hit .250-30-100, he'll be a steal in most drafts. Look for the players to prove that they're still great without the steroids.

Toronto Blue Jays
Jays rebound from a rough 2004 but the division is just too tough. Halladay back to form and young offense comes into its own.
Overvalued: Shea Hillenbrand isn't going to be drafted in mixed leagues, but I don't see a truly overvalued player on this squad. Hillenbrand isn't going to get any better than he's shown over the past 3 years - he'll hit around .290 with teens power.
Undervalued: Take your pick: Koskie, Gabe Gross, Alexis Rios. Rios is going to be a hell of a player and he should hit with at least teens power this season and should develop into at least a 20-20 player in the near term.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were supposed to make a big splash in the free agent market and ended up signing Steve Kline? ? The pitching staff stinks.
Overvalued: Rafael Palmeiro had his worst season since 1992 but someone will bet on the wrong 40 (homer) instead of the right 40 (age). Viagra can't help revive his hitting, he's only worth a pickup in AL-only leagues.
Undervalued: Brian Roberts doesn't have to worry about Hairston this season and he should have a career year. He's going to give you the same production from year to year - .270 with 4-5 homers, 40-50 RBI and 25+ steals.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
An exciting young offensive squad and BJ Upton will be an All-Star soon. Pitching still needs major work though Kazmir will be their ace to build around.
Overvalued: This is a really big stretch but Alex Gonzalez. He shouldn't even have a job but the D'Rays management thought that signing him, Alomar and Bautista was a good idea? ? Gonzalez will be out of a job by May.
Undervalued: You can read about Cantu and Upton in my sleeper column so today I'll throw out Josh Phelps. He didn't live up to his potential in Toronto and then didn't get much of a shot in Cleveland. He's set to the the D'Rays DH and he still has 30 homer potential.

AL Central

Minnesota Twins
Johan Santana carries the Twins to another title - they always find a way to rise to the top of the Central in September.
Overvalued: Joe Mauer can flat out hit but his knee scares the hell out of me. A bum knee is never good news for a catcher. Expect him to spend time on the DL again this season.
Undervalued: Mike Cuddyer finally has a starting job in Minnesota and look for him to take full advantage. He'll hit .260 with 25+ homers and 90-100 RBI.

Cleveland Indians
The Indians have enough talent to take the Central but they'll need Sabathia healthy and Millwood to return to his Braves form.
Overvalued: The Tribe signed Juan Gonzalez for what reason? He barely made the opening day roster and will cost Grady Sizemore at-bats. He's played in just 185 games over the last 3 years. Expect him to be released by May.
Undervalued: Ben Broussard is ready to hit 30-homers. Ronnie Belliard is a virtual unknown yet he had a great season last year hitting .282/.348/.426 with 48 doubles, 12 homers and 70 RBI.

Chicago White Sox
The offense lost Magglio and Lee but added Dye and Podsednik - that's not good.
Overvalued: I'm just not buying into the Aaron Rowand story even though he hit .310-24-69-17 last year. He had a great August (.352-9-24), but he didn't top 4 homers in any other month.
Undervalued: Uribe is just 25 and turned in a career year hitting .283-23-74-9. He still needs to improve his consistency as he hit just .222 in June and .123 (ouch!) in July. His versatility (2B/3B/SS) is a huge plus.

Detroit Tigers
An amazing improvement from two years ago. Talent emerging in the outfield and Bonderman is an ace this season.
Overvalued: Carlos Guillen! He had a career year last year setting career highs across the board (.318-20-97-12). He just isn't that good. Expect him to return to his career average of .277 and mid-teens power at best.
Undervalued: Craig Monroe is primed for a breakout season after hitting .321/.369/.638 with 15 homers and 40 RBI in the second half of 2004. He cut down on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate which is a great sign. 30 homers are a real possibility.

Kansas City Royals
Some good young talent (Greinke, Gotay) but they have almost no chance this season.
Overvalued: Mike Sweeney is a great hitter but his bad back is a huge issue. He's missed 141 games over the last three years and hasn't topped 108 games in each of the last two.
Undervalued: If David DeJesus can stay healthy, he'll be one of the best leadoff men in the game - he plays a bit like Lenny Dykstra in an all out style of play. He'll have a solid OBP, can hit with teens power and should steal 15+ bases.

AL West

Anahiem Angels
They should be even better this season after adding Cabrera, Finley and Byrd. They're the best of the west by a wide margin.
Overvalued: Steve Finley won't repeat his 36 homer performance from last year. Look for him to return to .275 with 20-25 homers.
Undervalued: Garrett Anderson was one of baseball's most durable players until last year when back and knee injuries sapped his power. He hit just 14 homers but he should return to his near 30 homer power with a .300 average.

Oakland Athletics
Rich Harden is the new ace but the new young staff is going to have its ups and downs - they'll need Blanton and Haren to mature in a hurry to make the west a race.
Overvalued: Jason Kendall is a Billy Beane prototype as his .387 OBP will work wonders at the top of the A's order. However Kendall barely has any power and he won't be running much in Oakland especially given his poor stolen base success rate (56%) over the last two years.
Undervalued: Bobby Crosby struggled in the second half (.208-11-29) but he should continue to improve as a hitter in his second season. Look for his average to improve and his power to increase slightly as well.

Texas Rangers
Their pitching staff wasn't as good as last year's numbers indicate though they'll mash the ball with their great lineup.
Overvalued: Anyone that drafts Rod Barajas should be directed to our site for immediate help. Barajas hit .249-15-58 last year but his tear from May to June (10 homers) was a total fluke. He hit just .188 from July to August.
Undervalued: It feels like Hidalgo has been playing forever but he's still just 29. Moving to Arlington should revitalize his bat and he should hit 30 homers with the Rangers.

Seattle Mariners
Adding Beltre and Sexson are a big help but it won't be enough...
Overvalued: Jeremy Reed is ready for the big show but his lack of power is a killer in the fantasy game. He'll need to steal 30+ bases to become a viable fantasy option. In 58 major league at-bats last year, he hit .397/.470/.466 with 3 steals.
Undervalued: Richie Sexson's shoulder injury last year will have many people avoiding him. Managers will also point to Safeco being a great pitchers park, but no ballpark can keep Sexson's blasts in the yard. He's still a 40 homer threat even in Seattle.

NL East

Florida Marlins
Delgado transforms the lineup as he'll push them from a 3rd tier to a 1st tier offense - great signing by the Fish. Burnett-Beckett are an awesome 1-2 punch.
Overvalued: Luis Castillo is valuable because he plays at a thin position and he swipes 20 bases; but his 50 steal days are clearly behind him.
Undervalued: Paul Lo Duca isn't going to hit 25 homers like he did in 2001, but I wouldn't be surprised if he drove in 90+. He joins his best supporting cast and will bat behind Delgado and Lowell which should provide big opportunities for Lo Duca.

Atlanta Braves
Another shrewd offseason from GM John Schuerholz - he acquired an ace in Tim Hudson and a closer, Kolb, which allows them to move Smoltz back to the rotation. Losing Drew will hurt...
Overvalued: I'm not buying the new Andruw Jones who hit 10 homers in spring training - he's always been streaky and half of those probably came off of Triple-A pitchers. He's at the age that he could have a career year, but I wouldn't count on it.
Undervalued: Marcus Giles is coming off an injury plagued season so some may shy away from him. Look for a career year from Giles: .300, 25+ homers and 20+ steals.

Philadelphia Phillies
The perennial underachievers still have a chance in the east but their pitching just isn't as good as the competition.
Overvalued: Everyone loves Chase Utley this draft season but he's going to fall short of expectations of 25+ homers. He hasn't learned to hit lefties yet and his plate discipline needs improvement.
Undervalued: Marlon Byrd can't be as bad as he was last year (.228-5-33). He was tearing it up this spring before dislocating his finger. He should get 400-500 at-bats with Lofton and Burrell both injury risks.

New York Mets
Pedro and Beltran give the team instant credibility but the stars and moons will have to be perfectly aligned for the Mets to make the playoffs.
Overvalued: Mike Piazza still carries the memories of 30 homer days but his health is as fragile as Milton Bradley's psyche. Next season he'll be in the AL or retired.
Undervalued: Kaz Matsui is poised for a breakout season as long as his back holds up. He'll be more comfortable in his sophomore season and should hit 15 homers and steal 20+ bases.

Washington Nationals
MLB sank this franchise by taking years to sell it. Thanks Bud...
Overvalued: Vinny Castilla! It's amazing what Coors can do to hitters (.271-35-131) - it should be a freakin reality show - take a crappy hitter and see how he becomes an All-Star at Coors. Don't expect more than 25 homers from Vinny in 2005.
Undervalued: Management realized that Endy Chavez is a waste of at-bats and it looks like they're going to give Ryan Church a shot. He crushed Triple-A pitching last year hitting .342/.429/.618 with 17 homers and 78 RBI in 99 games. If he fails, Terrmel Sledge will be waiting for his shot.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals
Losing Renteria hurts but adding Mulder should be enough to take the Central.
Overvalued: Did people forget that Walker is 38 and a huge injury risk? His back is already bothering him which is a red flag.
Undervalued: Reggie Sanders. He goes medievil in odd years. The last 3 odd years he's averaged 30 homers, 83 RBI and 22 steals.

Chicago Cubs
Their fate lies in the arms of Prior, Wood and Zambrano.
Overvalued: Jeromy Burnitz. Look for his average to plummet back to around .240 but he should still hit 25-30 homers with the Cubbies.
Undervalued: Nomar is healthy and ready to prove that he's still among the elite shortstops. Wrigley is a better homer run hitters park that Fenway which should mean 25+ homers and 10 steals would be gravy.

Houston Astros
Beltran, Kent and Miller lost to free agency - ouch! Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte still give them hope.
Overvalued: Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer but he's on the decline. His OPS has declined 5 straight years and his .465 SLG last season was his worst since 1992. His 30+ homer days are over.
Undervalued: Willie Taveras hit .335 with 55 steals in 103 games at Double-A Round Rock in 2004. His steal potential gives him instant fantasy credibility in my book. He stole 9 bases this spring in 22 games.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are an up and coming team but are still a year or two away from having a legit shot. Sheets and Davis still need some more help in the starting rotation.
Overvalued: Lyle Overbay had a great first half (.344-10-62) but he slowed in the second (.245-6-25). Which is the real Overbay? If he struggles, Prince Fielder will be waiting in the wings.
Undervalued: With Podsednik now in Chicago, Brady Clark in slated to play centerfield and bat leadoff for the Brew Crew. Last season, Clark matured as a hitter taking more walks and hitting .280/.385/.397 with 7 homers, 46 RBI and 15 steals. Expect Clark to take another step forward and hit .270-.280 with low-teens power and 25+ steals.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Oliver Perez's arm worries me - his innings pitched took a huge jump last year. They could challenge the .500 mark.
Overvalued: Rob Mackowiak had a career year last season hitting .246-17-75-13. Despite his success, he doesn't have a starting job and will have to fight for at-bats. Lawton's injury history could provide a window for Mackowiak.
Undervalued: Tike Redman got off to a brutal start last year - .226 in April, .232 in May; but he finished strong hitting .313/.349/.413 with 12 steals in the second half. 25-30 steals would be nice...

Cincinnati Reds
There's no nice way to put it - the pitching staff stinks... Eric Milton is their ace?
Overvalued: Ken Griffey Jr has played in 206 games over the last 3 years combined. The over/under this year is 70. Good luck.
Undervalued: D'Angelo Jimenez puts up solid numbers with little recognition. He'll hit .270-13-60-12, solid for second base.

NL West

San Diego Padres
Lawrence, Peavy and Eaton are a great front three. Giles is still underappreciated by some.
Overvalued: Hats off to Dave Roberts stealing those crucial bases against the Yanks - amazing stuff. His hamstring problems are inevitable but he steals bases at will when in the lineup.
Undervalued: Sean Burroughs just doesn't hit enough to be an everyday third baseman and the Padres are beginning to understand that. Xavier Nady is expected to get at-bats against lefties this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers
DePodesta has my respect but his moves puzzle me. JD Drew, Valentin, Kent and Lowe? Hmm...
Overvalued: JD Drew. His one healthy season comes in his walk season and he just signed the exact same contract as Darren Dreifort - that's eery. Of course I drafted him in one league just to make sure he blows out his knee in the first week.
Undervalued: Hee Seop Choi was having a solid season in Florida hitting .270/.388/.495 with 15 homers and 40 RBI in 95 games; after being traded to the Dodgers he hit .161/.289/.242 with NO homers and 6 RBI in 62 at-bats. His career numbers are Dodger Stadium are frighteningly bad .172/.294/.276 (0 homers) but it’s a small sample size of 29 at-bats. If he can find his swing again, he should be good for 20+ homers which is good for NL-only leagues.

San Francisco Giants
Big trouble in Barryless Bay Area. Unless he returns in a hurry, the Giants are toast.
Overvalued: Moises Alou moves from a great home run hitting park in Wrigley to SF - that's not good news. Expect around 25 homers instead of 39.
Undervalued: Pedro Feliz's stock shot up with Bonds' injury. He'll play outfield and now will probably get 500 at-bats again which should mean 20+ homers again.

Colorado Rockies
Why would any free agent pitcher sign with the Rockies? Guess what, none did.
Overvalued: JD Closser has 20 homer potential but he hit just 7 in 83 games at Triple-A last year. He's hitting just .205 this spring.
Undervalued: Todd Helton. Just kidding. There are never undervalued hitters in Colorado.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The team is supposed to be close to bankruptcy so they sign Glaus and Russ Ortiz to ridiculous contracts?!? They still stink.
Overvalued: Chad Tracy doesn't hit for enough power to be a corner infielder but he's set to play first for the D'Backs. In fantasy, Tracy doesn't hit for enough power or have enough speed to warrant a roster spot.
Undervalued: Shawn Green escapes Chavez Ravine and moves to a great hitters park which should mean 35+ homers again for Green.

If you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at cwang@fantasyinfocentral.com.

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